Blizzard Watch 3, NWS Aberdeen, SD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ABERDEEN SD
1206 AM CST SAT JAN 25 2014

.UPDATE...
UPDATED THE FORECAST TO EXPIRE THE WIND ADVISORY AND THE WINTER
WEATHER ADVISORY. WHILE LIGHT SNOW CONTINUES OVER THE EASTERN
CWA...WEBCAMS ARE SHOWING FAIRLY GOOD CONDITIONS OVERALL. THUS
HAVE EXPIRED THE WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY.

&&
.PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
.SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT
A MULTITUDE OF WX ISSUES THROUGH THE WEEKEND. FOR TNT WILL KEEP
ADVISORY GOING IN THE NORTHEAST CWA WHERE SOME SNOW IS STILL
EXPECTED TO COMBINE WITH GUSTY WINDS. FURTHER WEST WINDS ARE NOT
MATERIALIZING AND TEMPS HAVE BEEN FAIRLY MILD THEREFORE HAVING A
HARD TIME JUSTIFYING CONTINUANCE OF THOSE HEADLINES. WILL LIKELY
AXE THEM AT ISSUANCE TIME. SATURDAY SHOULD BE RELATIVELY MILD IN
BETWEEN SYSTEMS ALTHOUGH WAA RETURNS TO THE WEST CWA BY AFTERNOON
AND SPREADS ACROSS THE EAST DURING THE AFTERNOON AND OVERNIGHT.
MOST MODELS AGREE ON A FEW INCHES OF SNOW OVER THE FAR EASTERN CWA
SATURDAY NIGHT. ON SUNDAY MAJOR COLD PUSH STARTS TO TAKE SHAPE
BEHIND DEPARTING LOW. THE COMBINATION OF NEW SNOW OVER THE
NORTHEAST CWA...SNOW SHOWERS OVER THE REST OF THE CWA AND WINDS
INCREASING TO 30 TO 50 MPH WILL LIKELY CREATE VISIBILITY ISSUES ON
SUNDAY AND SUNDAY EVENING. FOR NOW NO HEADLINES CAUSE WE WANT TO
GET THROUGH TNTS WEATHER AND DEAL WITH SUNDAY IN A LATER FORECAST.
LOWS TNT SHOULD BE WARMER THAN MOS...CANT QUITE FIGURE OUT WHY ITS
SO COLD. A MODEL BLEND SUFFICES FOR THE REST OF THE TIME. AND HAVE
A NON DIURNAL TREND FOR SUNDAY AS COLD AIR MASS MOVES IN AND
CAUSES FALLING TEMPS IN THE AFTERNOON.

.LONG TERM...MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY
UPPER FLOW WILL BE PREDOMINANTLY NORTHWESTERLY WITH A FEW WEAK
SHORTWAVES PASSING THROUGH. THE ONLY REAL WAVE OF SIGNIFICANCE
MOVES THROUGH WEDNESDAY/THURSDAY SO PLENTY OF TIME TO HASH OUT THE
DETAILS...THOUGH PLACEMENT AT THIS POINT IS TOO FAR EAST FOR WARM
ADVECTION PRECIPITATION...AND PROFILES ARE ALSO FAIRLY DRY ON THE
COLD ADVECTION SIDE. THE MAJOR IMPACT FROM THIS SYSTEM WILL BE
ANOTHER BOUT OF STRONG WINDS.

H85 TEMPERATURES WILL BOTTOM OUT AROUND 2 STANDARD DEVIATIONS
BELOW CLIMO WITH THE ARCTIC SURGE TO START THE PERIOD OFF. 1045MB
HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED NORTHWEST OF THE AREA MONDAY INTO TUESDAY
WILL KEEP US BREEZY...SO HAVE ANOTHER BOUT OF EXTREME WIND CHILLS
TO CONTEND WITH.

&&

.AVIATION...
06Z TAFS FOR THE KABR...KATY...KPIR AND KMBG TERMINALS

AN AREA OF LIGHT SNOW WILL TRACK SOUTHWARD ACROSS THE CWA THROUGH
THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. VSBYS MAY BRIEFLY FALL INTO THE MVFR CATEGORY
AT TIMES. VFR CONDITIONS WILL RETURN SATURDAY MORNING AND REMAIN
THROUGH MUCH OF THE DAYTIME HOURS. A CLIPPER SYSTEM WILL TRACK
ACROSS THE EAST SATURDAY EVENING...BRINGING MVFR CIGS AND MVFR
VSBYS IN LIGHT SNOW TO KABR AND KATY.

&&

.ABR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&

UPDATE...SD
SHORT TERM...TDK
LONG TERM...CONNELLY
AVIATION...PARKIN

WEATHER.GOV/ABERDEEN

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ABERDEEN SD
314 PM CST FRI JAN 24 2014

MNZ039-046-SDZ003>011-015>023-033>037-045-048-051-252115-
TRAVERSE-BIG STONE-CORSON-CAMPBELL-MCPHERSON-BROWN-MARSHALL-
ROBERTS-WALWORTH-EDMUNDS-DAY-DEWEY-POTTER-FAULK-SPINK-CLARK-
CODINGTON-GRANT-HAMLIN-DEUEL-STANLEY-SULLY-HUGHES-HYDE-HAND-JONES-
LYMAN-BUFFALO-
314 PM CST FRI JAN 24 2014 /214 PM MST FRI JAN 24 2014/

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF WEST CENTRAL
MINNESOTA...CENTRAL SOUTH DAKOTA...NORTH CENTRAL SOUTH DAKOTA AND
NORTHEAST SOUTH DAKOTA.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT

A WINTRY MIX IS EXPECTED ACROSS NORTHEAST SOUTH DAKOTA THIS
EVENING...ALONG WITH SOME POTENTIAL FOR BLOWING AND DRIFTING SNOW.
VISIBILITY MAY BE REDUCED AT TIMES THIS EVENING. GUSTY WINDS ALONG
THE MISSOURI RIVER SHOULD ABATE THIS EVENING.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY

ADDITIONAL ACCUMULATING SNOWFALL IS EXPECTED SATURDAY AND SATURDAY
NIGHT. BY SUNDAY ANOTHER BLAST OF ARCTIC AIR WILL SURGE SOUTHWARD
BRINGING SNOW...STRONG NORTHERLY WINDS AND BITTER COLD
TEMPERATURES BACK INTO THE REGION. SUSTAINED WINDS OF 25 TO 35 MPH
WITH HIGHER GUSTS WILL COMBINE WITH FALLING SNOW TO RESULT IN
REDUCED VISIBILITIES.  WIND CHILL VALUES BETWEEN 25 BELOW TO 40
DEGREES BELOW ZERO WILL BE POSSIBLE SUNDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH
MONDAY MORNING.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT ANTICIPATED TODAY OR TONIGHT.