Special Weather Statement, NWS Albuquerque, NM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBUQUERQUE NM
1153 AM MDT SUN JUL 27 2014

.AVIATION...
18Z TAF CYCLE
UPTICK IN CONVECTION AND TS/SH IMPACTS TODAY/TONIGHT. BACK DOOR
COLD FRONT CURRENTLY PUSHING INTO NC/NE AREAS AND WILL PROGRESS
SOUTH AND WESTWARD REST OF TODAY INTO TONIGHT. STORMS ALONG THE
FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL BECOME STRONG AT TIMES AND PRODUCE VIS AND
PERHAPS CIG RESTRICTIONS FOR A SHORT TIME. MAINLY MVFR CIGS OR MTN
TOP OBSCD. FAR SW AREAS SHOULD ALSO SEE SOME STRONGER STORMS WITH
LOWER CIGS THAT COULD OBSC MTN TOPS FOR A PERIOD OF TIME. MOST
LIKELY TERMINAL IMPACTS REST OF TODAY/THIS EVENING INCLUDE LVS/SAF
AND TCC. ROW LOOKS LEAST LIKELY TO BE IMPACTED. ABQ/AEG ON THE
FRINGE BUT EXPECT TO SEE BIGGER STORMS FROM THOSE TERMINAL LOCATIONS.
USING VCSH/TS AS A PLACEHOLDER RIGHT NOW...UNTIL CAN GAUGE BETTER
STORM TRENDS AND FRONTAL PUSH. GAP WIND WILL BE STRONG LATE THIS
AFTERNOON/EVENING FOR ABQ SO PUT IN 35KT. AWW WIND SPEEDS POSSIBLE
AT ABQ BUT WITH CONVECTION AROUND COULD BE A HYBRID CASE. WILL
MONITOR ACCORDINGLY. MVFR CIG POSSIBLE AT LVS FOLLOWING THE MAIN
FRONTAL PUSH AND RAIN. GUIDANCE NOT REAL STRONG BUT THE PATTERN IS
THERE.

50

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...330 AM MDT SUN JUL 27 2014...
.SYNOPSIS...
SHOWERS AND STORMS...SOME WITH HEAVY RAIN WHICH COULD LEAD TO
LOCALIZED FLOODING...WILL BE INCREASING TODAY AND TONIGHT AS
MOISTURE CONTINUES TO INFILTRATE THE RIDGE ALOFT. A COLD FRONT TO
PUSH INTO THE PLAINS TODAY AND TONIGHT WILL ALSO TRIGGER MORE
WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND STORMS. THE FRONT WILL ALSO BRING GUSTY EAST
WINDS TO THE RIO GRANDE VALLEY AS IT TRACKS WESTWARD THIS AFTERNOON
AND TONIGHT. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL COOL DOWN CLOSER TO AVERAGE OR
EVEN A FEW DEGREES BELOW FOR MUCH OF THIS WEEK. ADDITIONAL FRONTS
TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY WILL POTENTIALLY LEAD TO MORE WIDESPREAD
AND LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL FOR AT LEAST PORTIONS OF NORTHERN AND
CENTRAL NEW MEXICO.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
A WETTER PERIOD HEADED TO NEW MEXICO TODAY AND PERSISTING THROUGH
MUCH OF THE WEEK. SURFACE BOUNDARY STILL TRACKING INTO THE EAST
CENTRAL PLAINS AT THE MOMENT CONTINUES TO SPARK WHAT APPEARS TO BE
ISOLATED SHOWERS OR A SHORT LIVED STORM. THIS BOUNDARY DOESN/T
APPEAR TO BE THE FRONT JUST YET...WHICH WILL BE STARTING TO IMPACT
THE NORTHEAST THIS AFTERNOON. THEREFORE NOT LOOKING FOR ANY RECORD
HIGH TEMPERATURES TODAY IN THAT PART OF THE STATE TODAY...AND HIGHS
OVERALL ARE EXPECTED TO BEGIN TO COOL DOWN TOWARDS AVERAGE...OR EVEN
A FEW DEGREES BELOW AS CONVECTION INCREASES THIS WEEK.

DECIDED TO EXPAND THE FLASH FLOOD WATCH FARTHER SOUTH INTO THE
NORTHEAST/EAST CENTRAL PLAINS. ANTICIPATE HEAVY RAINS COULD SAG
SOUTHWARD WITH THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY. ALSO CONSIDERED ADDING THE
JEMEZ TO THE WATCH...ESPECIALLY AS THE EAST TO SOUTHEAST WINDS
DEVELOP INTO THE RIO GRANDE VALLEY LATER TODAY/TONIGHT...BUT
DECIDED TO HOLD OFF FOR NOW. IN ANY EVENT...HAVE A MENTION OF
LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN TO MANY OF THE NORTH CENTRAL/NORTHEAST ZONES FOR
THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT.

THE REST OF THE WEEK LOOKS ACTIVE ESPECIALLY THE MID WEEK
PERIOD...AS THE RIDGE AXIS EXPANDS INTO THE NORTHERN ROCKIES AND AT
LEAST PART OF NEW MEXICO IS UNDER NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT. DISTURBANCES
WILL BRUSH THE NORTH CENTRAL/NORTHEAST AND ALLOW FRONTS TO IMPACT AT
LEAST THE PLAINS...BUT ALSO PUSHING MOISTURE WESTWARD. THIS PATTERN
PERSISTS INTO NEXT WEEKEND...THEN A STRONGER TROUGH ATTEMPTS TO
BATTER DOWN THE STRONG RIDGE...OR AT LEAST SHOVE IT EASTWARD A BIT.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
INCREASINGLY ACTIVE PATTERN THIS WEEK WITH HIGH LIKELIHOOD OF
WIDESPREAD HEAVY T-STORM RAINS...ESPECIALLY DURING THE TUE THRU THU
PERIOD. IN FACT...THE WED-THU PERIOD COULD END UP AMONG THE MOST
ACTIVE OF THE SEASON THUS FAR. THREAT FOR BURN SCAR FLASH FLOODING
WILL BE VERY HIGH. MAX VENTILATION RATES WILL TREND DOWNWARD AND MIN
RH/S UPWARD EACH DAY...WITH FAIR IF NOT POOR VENT CONDITIONS BY THU.

A COUPLE OF IMPORTANT TRENDS TO WATCH THRU TONIGHT.  FIRST...A
SURFACE FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL SAG SOUTHWARD ACROSS NE NEW MEXICO
LATER TODAY PROVIDING A FOCUS FOR WIDESPREAD T-STORM ACTIVITY FROM
THE SANGRE DE CRISTO MOUNTAINS TO THE NE HIGHLANDS AND PLAINS.
GUSTY EASTERLY GAP WINDS TO DEVELOP LATE IN THE AFTERNOON FOR PLACES
LIKE TAOS AND SANTA FE...EXPANDING SOUTHWARD TO INCLUDE THE RIO
GRANDE VALLEY CORRIDOR. THESE GAP WINDS COMBINED WITH OUTFLOW
BOUNDARY  INTERACTIONS COULD RESULT IN A DYNAMIC THUNDERSTORM SET UP
FOR VALLEY/LOWLAND LOCATIONS BY EARLY TO MID EVENING.  GAP WINDS
WILL STRENGTHEN MARKEDLY TONIGHT AND PERSIST INTO MONDAY MORNING.

THE SECOND TREND WILL BE A SUBTLE EASTWARD SHIFT OF THE LARGE-SCALE
RIDGE ALOFT OR AT LEAST A MORE NW TO SE ORIENTATION OF THE RIDGE
AXIS OVER ERN NEW MEXICO.  THIS WILL ALLOW DEEP-LAYERED MOISTURE
OVER SE ARIZONA AND FAR SW NEW MEXICO TO SLOWLY WORK NORTHWARD AND
HELP TO BOOST STORM COVERAGE UPWARD OVER MUCH OF THE WEST BY THIS
EVENING...AGAIN WITH OUTFLOW BOUNDARY INTERACTIONS BECOMING KEY FOR
VALLEY AND LOWLAND LOCATIONS.  THE UPPER HIGH WILL REMAIN QUITE
STRONG BECOMING CENTERED BETWEEN SANTA ROSA AND TUCUMCARI...AND ONCE
EARLY MORNING SHOWER AND CLOUD ACTIVITY DISSIPATES...IT WILL ALLOW
FOR STRONG HEATING MID TO LATE MORNING WITH CONVECTION FIRING OVER
THE HIGHER TERRAIN BY MIDDAY.  STEERING WINDS WILL AGAIN REMAIN VERY
WEAK AND GENERALLY FAVOR EAST-SOUTHEAST STORM MOTIONS ACROSS NC/NE
AREAS...AND TOWARD THE WEST OR NORTHWEST FOR CENTRAL/SW AREAS OR
CLOCKWISE AROUND THE HIGH CENTER.

AN EVEN MORE ACTIVE T-STORM DAY ON MONDAY...AND A FEATURE TO WATCH
WILL BE AN INVERTED TROUGH THAT WILL SLOWLY TRACK WEST...THEN TURN
NORTH ALONG THE NM/AZ LINE.  THIS WAVE WILL LIKELY TURN BACK TOWARD
THE EAST AND BECOME A SIGNIFICANT PLAYER EARLY IN THE WORK
WEEK...PARTICULARLY MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY. ANOTHER BACKDOOR COLD
FRONT WILL PUSH SOUTHWARD WED-WED PM...RECHARGING MOISTURE AND
INSTABILITY FIELDS FOR MID-WEEK. T-STORM COVERAGE WILL CONT TO RAMP
UP...WITH LATE NIGHT AND EARLY MORNING ACTIVITY LIKELY.  EXTENDED
RANGE FORECASTS SUPPORT A VERY ACTIVE PATTERN ESPECIALLY CENTRAL AND
WESTERN AREAS...DESPITE A WESTWARD SHIFT OF THE UPPER HIGH THAT
BECOMES CENTERED MORE OVER ARIZONA AND GREAT BASIN.  WIDESPREAD
7-DAY RAINFALL TOTALS IN THE 2 TO 5 INCH RANGE ARE LIKELY WITH
LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS FROM THE SANGRE DE CRISTO TO THE NORTHEAST. KJ

&&

.ABQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH THIS EVENING FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES...
NMZ515-527>534.

&&

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBUQUERQUE NM
505 AM MDT SUN JUL 27 2014

NMZ501>540-281200-
NORTHWEST PLATEAU-CHUSKA MOUNTAINS-FAR NORTHWEST HIGHLANDS-
NORTHWEST HIGHLANDS-WEST CENTRAL PLATEAU-WEST CENTRAL MOUNTAINS-
WEST CENTRAL HIGHLANDS-SOUTHWEST MOUNTAINS-
SAN FRANCISCO RIVER VALLEY-SAN JUAN MOUNTAINS-JEMEZ MOUNTAINS-
WEST SLOPES SANGRE DE CRISTO MOUNTAINS-
NORTHERN SANGRE DE CRISTO MOUNTAINS ABOVE 9500 FEET/RED RIVER-
SOUTHERN SANGRE DE CRISTO MOUNTAINS ABOVE 9500 FEET-
EAST SLOPES SANGRE DE CRISTO MOUNTAINS-UPPER RIO GRANDE VALLEY-
LOWER CHAMA RIVER VALLEY-SANTA FE METRO AREA-ALBUQUERQUE METRO AREA-
LOWER RIO GRANDE VALLEY-SANDIA/MANZANO MOUNTAINS-ESTANCIA VALLEY-
CENTRAL HIGHLANDS-SOUTH CENTRAL HIGHLANDS-UPPER TULAROSA VALLEY-
SOUTH CENTRAL MOUNTAINS-RATON RIDGE/JOHNSON MESA-
FAR NORTHEAST HIGHLANDS-NORTHEAST HIGHLANDS-UNION COUNTY-
HARDING COUNTY-EASTERN SAN MIGUEL COUNTY-GUADALUPE COUNTY-
QUAY COUNTY-CURRY COUNTY-ROOSEVELT COUNTY-DE BACA COUNTY-
CHAVES COUNTY PLAINS-EASTERN LINCOLN COUNTY-SOUTHWEST CHAVES COUNTY-
505 AM MDT SUN JUL 27 2014

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF NORTHERN AND
CENTRAL NEW MEXICO.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT

SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO FAVOR NORTH
CENTRAL...NORTHEAST AND EAST CENTRAL NEW MEXICO...WHERE POTENTIAL
FOR HEAVY RAINFALL...WHICH COULD LEAD TO FLASH FLOODING...IS MOST
LIKELY. LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL COULD ALSO OCCUR WITH ANY STORM DUE
TO SLOW CELL MOVEMENT AND INTERSECTING STORM OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY

SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS THUNDERSTORMS WILL PERSIST MAINLY DURING THE
AFTERNOON AND NIGHTTIME HOURS OVER NORTHERN AND CENTRAL NEW MEXICO.
SLOW MOVEMENT OF STORMS WILL PRODUCE LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL WHICH
COULD LEAD TO FLOODING. STORMS MAY ALSO PRODUCE SMALL HAIL...AND
GUSTY WINDS IN EXCESS OF 50 MPH. THE TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY PERIOD
COULD BE ESPECIALLY ACTIVE AS THE AFFECTS OF SURFACE FRONTS AND WEAK
DISTURBANCES ENHANCE STORM DEVELOPMENT.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTERS ARE ENCOURAGED TO REPORT RAINFALL AND FLOODING REPORTS TO
THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN ALBUQUERQUE AT 1.888.386.7637 OR VIA
THE WEB AT WEATHER.GOV/ABQ. SPOTTERS CAN ALSO SUBMIT WEATHER REPORTS
AND PHOTOS TO OUR FACEBOOK PAGE OR VIA TWITTER USING THE HASHTAG N M
W X.

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBUQUERQUE NM
119 PM MDT SUN JUL 27 2014

NMZ512-518-271945-
SANTA FE METRO AREA-WEST SLOPES SANGRE DE CRISTO MOUNTAINS-
119 PM MDT SUN JUL 27 2014

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR CENTRAL SANTA FE COUNTY THROUGH
145 PM MDT...

AT 112 PM MDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A
STRONG THUNDERSTORM NEAR SANTA FE...MOVING SOUTHWEST AT 10 MPH.

HAIL UP TO THE SIZE OF NICKELS AND WIND GUSTS UP TO 50 MPH ARE
EXPECTED WITH THIS STORM...ALONG WITH HEAVY RAIN AND FREQUENT
DANGEROUS LIGHTNING.

AREAS AFFECTED BY THIS STORM INCLUDE...SANTA FE AND EL DORADO.

THIS WILL IMPACT INTERSTATE 25 BETWEEN MILE MARKERS 280 AND 288...

IF THREATENING WEATHER APPROACHES YOUR AREA...TAKE SHELTER IN A
STURDY BUILDING.

&&

LAT...LON 3555 10592 3565 10603 3576 10587 3563 10584
TIME...MOT...LOC 1919Z 050DEG 8KT 3564 10593

CA

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBUQUERQUE NM
136 PM MDT SUN JUL 27 2014

NMZ518-272000-
SANTA FE METRO AREA-
136 PM MDT SUN JUL 27 2014

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR CENTRAL SANTA FE COUNTY THROUGH
200 PM MDT...

AT 130 PM MDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A
STRONG THUNDERSTORM 7 MILES EAST OF LA CIENEGA...OR ABOUT 7 MILES
SOUTH OF SANTA FE...MOVING SOUTHWEST AT 15 MPH.

HAIL UP TO THE SIZE OF NICKELS AND WIND GUSTS UP TO 50 MPH ARE
EXPECTED WITH THIS STORM...ALONG WITH HEAVY RAIN AND FREQUENT
DANGEROUS LIGHTNING.

AREAS AFFECTED BY THIS STORM INCLUDE...LA CIENEGA.

THIS WILL IMPACT INTERSTATE 25 BETWEEN MILE MARKERS 270 AND 280...

IF THREATENING WEATHER APPROACHES YOUR AREA...TAKE SHELTER IN A
STURDY BUILDING.

&&

LAT...LON 3545 10604 3556 10620 3564 10601 3556 10592
TIME...MOT...LOC 1936Z 055DEG 12KT 3557 10602

CA

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBUQUERQUE NM
138 PM MDT SUN JUL 27 2014

NMZ508-272015-
SOUTHWEST MOUNTAINS-
138 PM MDT SUN JUL 27 2014

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR CENTRAL CATRON COUNTY THROUGH 215
PM MDT...

AT 130 PM MDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A
STRONG THUNDERSTORM 6 MILES NORTHWEST OF QUEMADO LAKE...OR ABOUT 36
MILES NORTH OF RESERVE...MOVING NORTHWEST AT 10 MPH.

HAIL UP TO THE SIZE OF NICKELS AND WIND GUSTS UP TO 50 MPH ARE
EXPECTED WITH THIS STORM...ALONG WITH HEAVY RAIN AND FREQUENT
DANGEROUS LIGHTNING.

AREAS AFFECTED BY THIS STORM INCLUDE...STATE ROAD 32 SOUTH OF
QUEMADO.

IF THREATENING WEATHER APPROACHES YOUR AREA...TAKE SHELTER IN A
STURDY BUILDING.

&&

LAT...LON 3419 10875 3434 10864 3420 10847 3406 10849
TIME...MOT...LOC 1938Z 115DEG 7KT 3421 10857

CA

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBUQUERQUE NM
202 PM MDT SUN JUL 27 2014

NMZ518-272030-
SANTA FE METRO AREA-
202 PM MDT SUN JUL 27 2014

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR WESTERN SANTA FE AND EXTREME
EASTERN SANDOVAL COUNTIES THROUGH 230 PM MDT...

AT 154 PM MDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A
STRONG THUNDERSTORM NEAR LA CIENEGA...OR ABOUT 10 MILES SOUTHWEST OF
SANTA FE...MOVING WEST AT 15 MPH.

HAIL UP TO THE SIZE OF NICKELS AND WIND GUSTS UP TO 50 MPH ARE
EXPECTED WITH THIS STORM...ALONG WITH HEAVY RAIN AND FREQUENT
DANGEROUS LIGHTNING.

AREAS AFFECTED BY THIS STORM INCLUDE...LA CIENEGA...LA BAJADA AND
GALLISTEO DAM.

THIS WILL IMPACT INTERSTATE 25 BETWEEN MILE MARKERS 262 AND 277...

IF THREATENING WEATHER APPROACHES YOUR AREA...TAKE SHELTER IN A
STURDY BUILDING.

&&

LAT...LON 3538 10624 3559 10632 3565 10606 3553 10601
TIME...MOT...LOC 2002Z 072DEG 13KT 3557 10611

CA