Special Weather Statement, NWS Albuquerque, NM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBUQUERQUE NM
254 PM MDT MON JUN 23 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
ACTIVE WEATHER THROUGH TUESDAY MOSTLY FROM THE CENTRAL MOUNTAINS
EAST TO THE TEXAS BORDER. THIS INCLUDES THE POTENTIAL FOR SEVERE
WEATHER ACROSS MUCH OF THE EAST LATER THIS AFTERNOON INTO TONIGHT
AND AGAIN TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING IN THE FAR NORTHEAST. WE
WILL THEN BEGIN TO SEE A GRADUAL DRYING TREND FOR THE SECOND HALF
OF THE WEEK WITH A MOSTLY DRY WEEKEND AND EARLY NEXT WEEK...THANKS
TO A SLOWLY BUILDING HIGH PRESSURE AREA. WHILE WE CANT RULE OUT
STRAY SHOWERS OR STORMS IN THE NORTHERN MOUNTAINS OR FAR EASTERN
PLAINS THE VAST MAJORITY OF THE TIME AND AREA WILL BE RAINFREE
FROM THURSDAY THROUGH NEXT MONDAY.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS FIRING OVER THE CENTRAL MOUNTAINS AND
SPILLING ONTO THE EASTERN HIGHLANDS. THEY ARE BEHAVING SO FAR BUT
WE EXPECT THEM TO GROW IN COVERAGE AND INTENSITY AS WE PROGRESS
THROUGH THE EVENING. IN FACT THE BULK OF THE ACTIVITY MAY OCCUR
AROUND AND AFTER DARK ACROSS THE FAR EASTERN PLAINS...PROBABLY
LASTING TO MIDNIGHT OR LATER. ISOLATED SEVERE STORMS WITH LARGE
HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS WILL BE A CONCERN. A FEW SHOWERS ARE
TRYING TO FORM OVER THE GILA REGION THIS PM BUT WILL BE MORE
WIND PRODUCERS THAN RAIN MAKERS.

ANOTHER ACTIVE DAY ON TUESDAY...BUT LIKELY LESS COVERAGE THAN
TODAY. ANY SEVERE WEATHER LOOKS TO BE FOCUSED IN THE NORTHEAST.
MOST OF THE ACTIVITY WILL AGAIN BE EAST OF THE CENTRAL MOUNTAIN
CHAIN. ANY HOPES FOR A LITTLE RAIN IN THE RIO GRANDE VALLEY WILL
HINGE ON MOIST OUTFLOWS POURING THROUGH THE MOUNTAIN PASSES AND
CANYONS TONIGHT. TEMPERATURES WILL WARM A FEW DEGREES AND BE
MOSTLY ABOVE NORMAL TUESDAY.

SOME DRYING IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH THE REST OF THE WEEK
AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE SOUTHWEST AND A STORM PASSES
TO OUR NORTH. WEDNESDAY WILL STILL PRODUCE ISOLATED TO SCATTERED
ACTIVITY OVER THE EAST. BUT THEN THE HIGHER HEIGHTS WILL SUPPRESS
THE CONVECTION WHILE THE THE TROUGH WILL TRY AND SCOUR MUCH OF THE
MOISTURE OUT OF THE STATE BY THE END OF THE WEEK. WE CANNOT RULE
OUT ISOLATED STORMS ANY AFTERNOON OR EVENING FROM THURSDAY THROUGH
NEXT MONDAY BUT THEY WILL BE FEW AND FAR BETWEEN. MOST OF THE
FORECAST AREA WILL BE DRY A VAST MAJORITY OF THIS TIME.

LONG RANGE MODELS BRING A BACK DOOR FRONT TO THE EAST IN THE
LATER TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY TIME PERIOD. THIS COULD PROVIDE AN
OPPORTUNITY FOR AN INCREASE IN MOISTURE AND PRECIPITATION CHANCES.
CHJ

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
A BACKDOOR COLD FRONT HAS PUSHED SOUTH THROUGH THE EASTERN PLAINS
TODAY. OVERNIGHT THROUGH THIS MORNING A SHALLOW LAYER OF LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE PUSHED INTO THE RIO GRANDE VALLEY...MUCH OF IT HAS BEEN
MODIFIED/MIXED OUT INTO THE LOWER ATMOSPHERE THROUGH OUT THE DAY.
AS A RESULT...ONLY SLIGHT CHANCE OF DRY THUNDERSTORMS WEST OF THE
CENTRAL MOUNTAINS WHILE THE BEST CHANCES AND GREATER COVERAGE FOR
WETTING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EAST OF THE CENTRAL MOUNTAINS
ACROSS THE EASTERN PLAINS.  THE MOST INTENSE PERHAPS SEVERE STORMS
WILL BE ACROSS THE FAR EAST CENTRAL PLAINS THIS EVENING.

TOMORROW MODERATE WEST WINDS ALOFT WILL DOMINATE WEST OF THE CENTRAL
MOUNTAIN CHAIN ALLOWING FOR ISOLATED HIGH BASED DRY STORMS WILL
PREVAIL. BEST CHANCES FOR WET THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE FOUND TOMORROW
AFTERNOON AND EVENING EAST OF THE CENTRAL MOUNTAINS.

NO CRITICAL FIRE VALUES REACHED TODAY AND TOMORROW.  HOWEVER...A FEW
HOURS OF SUPER HAINES CONDITIONS EXPECTED OVER THE CHUSKA MOUNTAINS
TOMORROW AFTERNOON.  IN ADDITION...THURSDAY AFTERNOON A FEW HOURS OF
SUPER HAINES CONDITIONS DEVELOP OVER THE SOUTHWESTERN MOUNTAINS...
THE BLACK RANGE NORTH TO THE SAN MATEO MOUNTAINS...THE GALLINAS
MOUNTAINS...THE MAGDALENA MOUNTAINS AND NORTH TOWARDS MOUNT TAYLOR.
OVERNIGHT RH RECOVERIES ARE POOR TO FAIR WEST OF THE CENTRAL
MOUNTAINS AND FAIR TO GOOD TO EXCELLENT FROM THE CENTRAL MOUNTAINS
EAST TOWARDS THE TEXAS STATE LINE. VENT RATES GOOD TODAY ACROSS THE
WEST AND TRENDING TOWARDS GOOD ALL AREAS BY WEDNESDAY THROUGH THE
END OF THE WEEK.

AS A WEAK UPPER LEVEL TROUGH APPROACHES FROM THE WEST-NORTHWEST
WEDNESDAY...INCREASING THE DRY WESTERLIES AREAWIDE AND SHUNTING LOW
LEVEL GULF MOISTURE EAST INTO TEXAS. EXTENDED RANGE MODELS INDICATE
A WEAK UPPER TROUGH PASSAGE ON SATURDAY.  MODEL INDICATES MOIST
SOUTHERLY SURFACE FLOW PATTERNS OVER TEXAS...PERHAPS ALONG EDGING
INTO NEW MEXICO ACROSS THE FAR SOUTHEAST CORNER AND ALONG THE TX/NM
LINE. EXTENDED RANGE MODELS TRENDING TOWARDS THE BUILDING OF A UPPER
LEVEL SUBTROPICAL HIGH OVER NEAR THE FOUR CORNERS ABOUT 7 DAYS FROM
NOW.  THIS PATTERN WOULD ALLOW FOR INCREASED MOISTURE INFLUX INTO
THE REGION. 01

&&

.AVIATION...
18Z TAF CYCLE
SHRA AND TSRA ARE EXPECTED EAST OF THE CENTRAL MTN CHAIN THIS
AFTN/EVE WITH STRONG TO SEVERE CHANCES ACROSS THE NORTHEAST
PLAINS. KTCC AND KROW HAVE THE BEST CHANCES OF BEING IMPACTED LATE
THIS AFTERNOON. VCSH FOR OTHER TAF SITES EXCEPT FOR KFMN AND KGUP
BECAUSE OF POSSIBLE VIRGA SHOWERS WEST OF THE CENTRAL MTN CHAIN.
EXPECT STRONG MICRO BURST/OUTFLOW WINDS FROM VIRGA SHOWERS. BRIEF
REDUCTIONS IN CIGS/VSBY POSSIBLE. MVFR TO IFR CONDITIONS MAY
PERSIST AFTER 06Z TONIGHT AND CONTINUE INTO EARLY MORNING HOURS.
WESTERN AREAS LOOK TO REMAIN VFR FOR THE NEXT 24 HRS. 01

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
FARMINGTON......................  52  93  53  93 /   0   5   0   0
DULCE...........................  42  89  41  88 /   5   5   5   0
CUBA............................  48  90  47  90 /  10   5   5   0
GALLUP..........................  46  89  46  89 /   0   5   0   0
EL MORRO........................  44  85  45  84 /   0   5   0   0
GRANTS..........................  46  90  46  89 /   5   5   0   0
QUEMADO.........................  50  87  51  86 /   0   5   0   0
GLENWOOD........................  51  93  51  93 /   0   5   0   0
CHAMA...........................  41  83  40  82 /  10  10   5   5
LOS ALAMOS......................  58  85  57  86 /  20  20  10   0
PECOS...........................  52  82  54  82 /  40  30  10  10
CERRO/QUESTA....................  46  82  46  83 /  30  20  10   5
RED RIVER.......................  44  73  46  75 /  50  20  20  10
ANGEL FIRE......................  39  77  39  78 /  50  30  20  20
TAOS............................  46  86  46  86 /  20  10  10   0
MORA............................  48  80  48  82 /  50  30  20  20
ESPANOLA........................  53  90  52  92 /  20  10   5   0
SANTA FE........................  56  87  56  87 /  30  20  10   0
SANTA FE AIRPORT................  55  90  54  91 /  30  20   5   0
ALBUQUERQUE FOOTHILLS...........  63  91  63  92 /  10  10   5   5
ALBUQUERQUE HEIGHTS.............  65  93  64  94 /  10  10   5   5
ALBUQUERQUE VALLEY..............  61  95  61  95 /  10  10   5   5
ALBUQUERQUE WEST MESA...........  63  95  64  96 /  10  10   5   5
LOS LUNAS.......................  58  95  57  96 /  10   5   5   0
RIO RANCHO......................  63  95  62  96 /  10  10   5   5
SOCORRO.........................  64  98  66 101 /  10   5   5   0
SANDIA PARK/CEDAR CREST.........  57  91  58  91 /  20  20   5   5
TIJERAS.........................  58  89  58  90 /  20  10   5   5
MORIARTY/ESTANCIA...............  50  86  50  87 /  30  20  10   5
CLINES CORNERS..................  54  86  55  87 /  40  30  10  10
GRAN QUIVIRA....................  57  89  59  90 /  20  20  10   0
CARRIZOZO.......................  60  92  63  92 /  10  10   5   0
RUIDOSO.........................  53  85  55  86 /  30  20  10   5
CAPULIN.........................  51  80  53  84 /  60  40  30  30
RATON...........................  53  88  52  89 /  50  30  30  30
SPRINGER........................  52  86  52  90 /  50  30  20  30
LAS VEGAS.......................  50  84  51  85 /  50  20  20  20
CLAYTON.........................  58  88  60  88 /  60  40  30  20
ROY.............................  56  83  57  86 /  60  20  30  20
CONCHAS.........................  62  93  63  94 /  50  20  30  10
SANTA ROSA......................  60  91  61  93 /  40  20  20  10
TUCUMCARI.......................  63  95  65  95 /  60  30  30  10
CLOVIS..........................  62  90  62  91 /  60  30  30  10
PORTALES........................  64  92  67  93 /  60  30  30  10
FORT SUMNER.....................  65  92  66  93 /  50  20  20  10
ROSWELL.........................  67  97  67  99 /  40  20  10  10
PICACHO.........................  59  91  60  92 /  20  20  10   5
ELK.............................  56  85  59  87 /  20  20  10   5

&&

.ABQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

40

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBUQUERQUE NM
953 AM MDT MON JUN 23 2014

NMZ501>540-241200-
NORTHWEST PLATEAU-CHUSKA MOUNTAINS-FAR NORTHWEST HIGHLANDS-
NORTHWEST HIGHLANDS-WEST CENTRAL PLATEAU-WEST CENTRAL MOUNTAINS-
WEST CENTRAL HIGHLANDS-SOUTHWEST MOUNTAINS-
SAN FRANCISCO RIVER VALLEY-SAN JUAN MOUNTAINS-JEMEZ MOUNTAINS-
WEST SLOPES SANGRE DE CRISTO MOUNTAINS-
NORTHERN SANGRE DE CRISTO MOUNTAINS ABOVE 9500 FEET/RED RIVER-
SOUTHERN SANGRE DE CRISTO MOUNTAINS ABOVE 9500 FEET-
EAST SLOPES SANGRE DE CRISTO MOUNTAINS-UPPER RIO GRANDE VALLEY-
LOWER CHAMA RIVER VALLEY-SANTA FE METRO AREA-ALBUQUERQUE METRO AREA-
LOWER RIO GRANDE VALLEY-SANDIA/MANZANO MOUNTAINS-ESTANCIA VALLEY-
CENTRAL HIGHLANDS-SOUTH CENTRAL HIGHLANDS-UPPER TULAROSA VALLEY-
SOUTH CENTRAL MOUNTAINS-RATON RIDGE/JOHNSON MESA-
FAR NORTHEAST HIGHLANDS-NORTHEAST HIGHLANDS-UNION COUNTY-
HARDING COUNTY-EASTERN SAN MIGUEL COUNTY-GUADALUPE COUNTY-
QUAY COUNTY-CURRY COUNTY-ROOSEVELT COUNTY-DE BACA COUNTY-
CHAVES COUNTY PLAINS-EASTERN LINCOLN COUNTY-SOUTHWEST CHAVES COUNTY-
953 AM MDT MON JUN 23 2014

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF NORTH AND CENTRAL
NEW MEXICO.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT

THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS BETWEEN 3 PM AND
12 AM MDT ACROSS THE EASTERN PLAINS OF NEW MEXICO. THE FOCUS FOR
SEVERE WEATHER WILL BE PRIMARILY ON A LINE FROM DUNKEN...HONDO...
MILAGRO...WATROUS...CIMARRON TO THE COLORADO BORDER...EAST TO THE
TEXAS STATE LINE. THE MAIN THREATS ARE VERY LARGE HAIL ONE TO TWO
AND A HALF INCHES IN DIAMETER AND POTENTIALLY DAMAGING STRAIGHT
LINE WINDS IN EXCESS OF 70 MPH. TORRENTIAL DOWNPOURS WILL OCCUR.
AN ISOLATED TORNADO CANNOT BE RULED OUT.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY

THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS TUESDAY AFTERNOON
AND EVENING ACROSS UNION COUNTY. THE MAIN THREATS ARE LARGE HAIL
AND POTENTIALLY DAMAGING STRAIGHT LINE WINDS. AGAIN...AN ISOLATED
TORNADO CANNOT BE RULED OUT.

STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING COULD BRIEFLY
REACH SEVERE LEVELS ACROSS THE EASTERN HALF OF THE STATE.

WEATHER CAN CHANGE VERY RAPIDLY. ALWAYS USE THE LATEST FORECASTS...
WATCHES AND WARNINGS FOR PLANNING PURPOSES.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTERS SHOULD REPORT SEVERE WEATHER THROUGH THE NATIONAL WEATHER
SERVICE ALBUQUERQUE WEB SITE OR BY CALLING 1.888.386.7637.

40

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PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBUQUERQUE NM
422 PM MDT MON JUN 23 2014

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0420 PM     HAIL             CAPULIN                 36.74N 103.99W
06/23/2014  E0.75 INCH       UNION              NM   CO-OP OBSERVER

&&

EVENT NUMBER ABQ1401082

JLP

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBUQUERQUE NM
429 PM MDT MON JUN 23 2014

NMZ527-530-232300-
RATON RIDGE/JOHNSON MESA-UNION COUNTY-
429 PM MDT MON JUN 23 2014

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR WESTERN UNION COUNTY THROUGH 500
PM MDT...

AT 429 PM MDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A
STRONG THUNDERSTORM NEAR CAPULIN...OR ABOUT 7 MILES WEST OF DES
MOINES...MOVING EAST AT 10 MPH.

HAIL UP TO THE SIZE OF PENNIES AND WIND GUSTS UP TO 50 MPH ARE
EXPECTED WITH THIS STORM...ALONG WITH HEAVY RAIN.

AREAS AFFECTED BY THIS STORM INCLUDE...DES MOINES.

IF THREATENING WEATHER APPROACHES YOUR AREA...TAKE SHELTER IN A
STURDY BUILDING.

&&

LAT...LON 3681 10370 3656 10369 3659 10401 3678 10400
TIME...MOT...LOC 2229Z 269DEG 10KT 3673 10395

34

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SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBUQUERQUE NM
449 PM MDT MON JUN 23 2014

NMZ526-539-232315-
EASTERN LINCOLN COUNTY-SOUTH CENTRAL MOUNTAINS-
449 PM MDT MON JUN 23 2014

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR SOUTHERN LINCOLN COUNTY THROUGH
515 PM MDT...

AT 450 PM MDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A
STRONG THUNDERSTORM NEAR FORT STANTON...OR ABOUT 17 MILES NORTHEAST
OF RUIDOSO...MOVING EAST AT 10 MPH.

HAIL UP TO THE SIZE OF NICKELS AND WIND GUSTS UP TO 50 MPH ARE
EXPECTED WITH THIS STORM...ALONG WITH HEAVY RAIN.

AREAS AFFECTED BY THIS STORM INCLUDE...GLENCOE...LINCOLN STATE
MONUMENT...LINCOLN AND SAN PATRICIO.

THIS STORM MAY INTENSIFY...SO BE CERTAIN TO MONITOR LOCAL RADIO AND
TV STATIONS...AS WELL AS LOCAL CABLE TV OUTLETS...FOR ADDITIONAL
INFORMATION AND POSSIBLE WARNINGS FROM THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE.

&&

LAT...LON 3353 10520 3332 10531 3344 10560 3361 10552
TIME...MOT...LOC 2250Z 292DEG 8KT 3349 10545

34