Severe Thunderstorm Warning 224, NWS Albuquerque, NM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBUQUERQUE NM
304 PM MDT WED SEP 24 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGHER LEVEL MOISTURE HAS RETURNED TO NM AND THIS MORE MOIST
AND UNSTABLE ATMOSPHERE WILL LIKELY PRODUCE ISOLATED SEVERE
THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH THIS EVENING OVER THE FAR EAST CENTRAL
PLAINS TOWARD THE SOUTHEAST PLAINS. OTHERWISE HIGH PRESSURE TAKING
HOLD OVER THE FOUR CORNERS REGION. THE HIGH WILL TRY AND HOLD ON
THROUGH THE REST OF THE WEEK BUT WILL GET SQUEEZED BY A COUPLE OF
LOW PRESSURE AREAS. SUFFICIENT MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY WILL EXIST
FOR ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND STORMS...WITH THE EMPHASIS
SHIFTING TO THE WEST AND CENTRAL AREAS THURSDAY AND FRIDAY. A DEEP
TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE INLAND THIS WEEKEND AND SLOWLY
MOVE EAST...FINALLY CROSSING NM EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
A NASTY STORM IS ALONG THE NM...TX BORDER BETWEEN BROADVIEW AND
GLENRIO. EXPECT THERE WILL BE A FEW MORE SEVERE STORMS THROUGH
THIS EVENING OVER THE EAST CENTRAL PLAINS TO CHAVES COUNTY. ALSO
SOME HEAVY RAINERS OVER THE SOUTHEAST HALF OF OUR CWA. INTENSITY
SHOULD DIMINISH AFTER DARK AND OVERALL COVERAGE OF CONVECTION WANE
AFTER MIDNIGHT.

A COUPLE OF RATHER ACTIVE DAYS IN STORE FOR THURSDAY AND FRIDAY.
THIS IS DESPITE HIGH PRESSURE TRYING TO HOLD ON NEAR THE FOUR
CORNERS REGION. THE PROBLEM IS THE HIGH WILL BE SQUISHED BY A
STRONG TROUGH OFF THE WEST COAST AND A WEAKER TROUGH IN THE MIDDLE
OF THE COUNTRY. LOWER HEIGHTS WITH A LITTLE COOLING ALOFT WILL
COMBINE WITH PLENTY OF LOWER LEVEL MOISTURE TO DESTABILIZE THE
ATMOSPHERE OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. FAVORED AREAS WILL FOCUS
ON THE WEST AND CENTRAL ZONES. TEMPERATURES WILL LOWER SOME...BUT
MOSTLY REMAIN NEAR TO ABOVE NORMAL.

THE WEST COAST TROUGH WILL MOVE INLAND THIS WEEKEND. MODELS ARE
ALL FURTHER SOUTH WITH THE CENTER OF THE LOW...PRODUCING MORE QPF
FOR THE NORTHWEST HALF OF OUR CWA THIS WEEKEND. TEMPERATURES WILL
CONTINUE A SLOW DOWNWARD TREND.

THE BASE OF THE TROUGH WILL SLOWLY CROSS NM EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH
GRADUAL DRYING TREND. ISOLATED ACTIVITY ON MONDAY SHOULD YIELD TO
DRY WEATHER FOR TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY. TEMPERATURES WILL BE NEAR
TO BELOW NORMAL. GUSTY BREEZES EARLY IN THE WEAK WILL DIMINISH BY
MONDAY AS THE FLOW ALOFT RELAXES AND GOES ZONAL. A WEAK DISTURBANCE
POSSIBLE LATE NEXT WEEK. CHJ

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
AREAS ALONG AND EAST OF THE CENTRAL MOUNTAIN CHAIN WILL EXPERIENCE
ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WITH WETTING RAIN
THE REST OF THE AFTERNOON INTO THE EVENING. CLOUD TO GROUND
LIGHTNING...SMALL HAIL...STRONG OUTFLOW WINDS AND HEAVY DOWNPOURS
ARE POSSIBLE IN STRONGER STORMS...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE SOUTH EAST
PLAINS. THE CENTRAL MOUNTAINS COULD ALSO EXPERIENCE GUSTY OUTFLOW
WINDS FROM THUNDERSTORMS WITHIN THE GAPS THIS EVENING. EXPECT LOW
CLOUD DEVELOPMENT OVERNIGHT ACROSS CENTRAL AND EASTERN AREAS WITH
POSSIBILITY OF FOG. HUMIDITY RECOVERIES WILL BE FAIR ACROSS THE
NORTHWEST BUT EXCELLENT ELSEWHERE.

...NO MAJOR FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS...

EXPECT POOR VENTILATION RATES THROUGH FRIDAY BUT LOOK FOR
IMPROVEMENT BY THE WEEKEND INTO THE NEXT WORK WEEK. WITH AN UPPER
LEVEL SYSTEM APPROACHING THE STATE FROM THE WEST...WE WILL
START TO SEE A COOLING TREND IN TEMPERATURES...WETTING RAIN CHANCES
SHIFTING FROM THE EAST TO AREAS ALONG AND WEST OF THE CENTRAL
MOUNTAIN CHAIN ALONG WITH INCREASING RH VALUES AND SOUTHERLY TO
SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS THURSDAY THROUGH THE WEEKEND.

THE LATTER HALF OF THE WEEKEND INTO THE EARLY PART OF THE NEXT
WEEK...MODELS AGREE ON WETTING RAIN CHANCES FOR WESTERN AND NORTHERN NEW
MEXICO AS THE UPPER LEVEL SYSTEM PASSES TO OUR NORTH. BY
THURSDAY...ECMWF BECOMES BULLISH WITH ANOTHER UPPER LEVEL TROUGH
CROSSING OVER THE STATE WITH WIDESPREAD PRECIPITATION ACROSS THE
NORTHERN HALF WHILE GFS DISPLAYS A FEW UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCES
ACROSS THE NORTHEAST. THE WEATHER PATTERN WILL BE SHIFTING TO A MORE
PROGRESSIVE DRYING TREND AFTER PASSAGES OF THESE UPPER LEVEL
TROUGHS.

&&

.AVIATION...
18Z TAF CYCLE
LOOK FOR ISO TO SCT AFTN SHRA AND TS ALONG AND EAST OF THE CENTRAL
MTN CHAIN. BRIEF MVFR CIGS EXPECTED WITHIN SHRA/TS IMPACT AREAS.
EXPECT MTN OBSCURATION FOR THE KABQ/KSAF AREA OVERNIGHT. GUSTY GAP
WINDS COULD IMPACT KABQ THIS EVENING FROM TS OUTFLOW EAST OF THE
CENTRAL MTNS. ADDED -TSRA FOR LVS AND TCC BUT LOW CONFIDENCE OF
-TSRA FOR KROW SO ADDED VCSH. SPOTTY MVFR CIGS AND LOW CLOUDS
COULD DEVELOP OVERNIGHT ACROSS CENTRAL AND EASTERN AREAS. LOW
CONFIDENCE OF FOG DEVELOPMENT FOR THE EAST BUT THERE COULD BE A
POSSIBILITY. OTHERWISE VFR CONDITIONS TO PERSIST AREA WIDE.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
FARMINGTON......................  55  86  56  86 /   5   5   5  10
DULCE...........................  43  83  44  81 /  10  10   5  20
CUBA............................  48  82  49  79 /  10  20  10  30
GALLUP..........................  48  82  49  81 /   5  10   5  20
EL MORRO........................  48  77  49  78 /  10  20  10  20
GRANTS..........................  50  81  50  79 /  10  20  10  20
QUEMADO.........................  51  77  51  76 /  10  20  10  20
GLENWOOD........................  52  84  53  83 /   5  10  10  20
CHAMA...........................  40  78  41  77 /  10  20  20  20
LOS ALAMOS......................  53  78  54  76 /  10  20  10  20
PECOS...........................  50  74  51  74 /  20  20  20  20
CERRO/QUESTA....................  46  80  47  78 /  10  10  20  20
RED RIVER.......................  42  71  44  69 /  20  10  20  20
ANGEL FIRE......................  39  76  37  73 /  20  20  20  20
TAOS............................  46  78  46  76 /  10  10  10  20
MORA............................  47  74  47  75 /  20  20  20  20
ESPANOLA........................  54  83  55  82 /  10  10  10  10
SANTA FE........................  53  77  54  76 /  10  20  10  20
SANTA FE AIRPORT................  53  80  53  80 /  10  20  10  10
ALBUQUERQUE FOOTHILLS...........  59  81  59  80 /  10  10  10  10
ALBUQUERQUE HEIGHTS.............  62  82  61  82 /  10  10  10  10
ALBUQUERQUE VALLEY..............  56  84  59  84 /  10  10  10  10
ALBUQUERQUE WEST MESA...........  59  86  60  84 /  10  10  10  10
LOS LUNAS.......................  54  84  56  83 /  10  10  10  10
RIO RANCHO......................  58  87  59  83 /  10  10  10  10
SOCORRO.........................  61  84  60  85 /  10  10  10  10
SANDIA PARK/CEDAR CREST.........  54  81  54  80 /  10  20  10  20
TIJERAS.........................  53  81  54  81 /  10  20  10  20
MORIARTY/ESTANCIA...............  46  77  47  78 /  10  10  10  20
CLINES CORNERS..................  51  74  51  76 /  20  20  10  20
GRAN QUIVIRA....................  53  74  53  76 /  20  20  10  10
CARRIZOZO.......................  58  77  56  77 /  30  20  10  10
RUIDOSO.........................  52  70  49  71 /  30  30  10  20
CAPULIN.........................  50  78  49  75 /  20  10  10  10
RATON...........................  48  82  48  81 /  10  10  10  10
SPRINGER........................  49  80  50  81 /  20  20  10  10
LAS VEGAS.......................  48  77  48  77 /  20  20  10  20
CLAYTON.........................  55  83  55  81 /  20  10  10   5
ROY.............................  53  77  52  77 /  20  20  10   5
CONCHAS.........................  57  81  57  81 /  20  20  10   5
SANTA ROSA......................  57  79  57  79 /  20  20  10   5
TUCUMCARI.......................  56  84  57  83 /  20  20  10   5
CLOVIS..........................  56  80  54  78 /  30  20  10   5
PORTALES........................  58  81  55  79 /  30  20  10   5
FORT SUMNER.....................  57  77  56  80 /  30  20  10   5
ROSWELL.........................  60  81  57  82 /  30  20  10  10
PICACHO.........................  56  74  55  75 /  30  20  10  10
ELK.............................  53  68  51  71 /  30  20  10  20

&&

.ABQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

40

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBUQUERQUE NM
543 AM MDT WED SEP 24 2014

NMZ501>540-251200-
NORTHWEST PLATEAU-CHUSKA MOUNTAINS-FAR NORTHWEST HIGHLANDS-
NORTHWEST HIGHLANDS-WEST CENTRAL PLATEAU-WEST CENTRAL MOUNTAINS-
WEST CENTRAL HIGHLANDS-SOUTHWEST MOUNTAINS-
SAN FRANCISCO RIVER VALLEY-SAN JUAN MOUNTAINS-JEMEZ MOUNTAINS-
WEST SLOPES SANGRE DE CRISTO MOUNTAINS-
NORTHERN SANGRE DE CRISTO MOUNTAINS ABOVE 9500 FEET/RED RIVER-
SOUTHERN SANGRE DE CRISTO MOUNTAINS ABOVE 9500 FEET-
EAST SLOPES SANGRE DE CRISTO MOUNTAINS-UPPER RIO GRANDE VALLEY-
LOWER CHAMA RIVER VALLEY-SANTA FE METRO AREA-ALBUQUERQUE METRO AREA-
LOWER RIO GRANDE VALLEY-SANDIA/MANZANO MOUNTAINS-ESTANCIA VALLEY-
CENTRAL HIGHLANDS-SOUTH CENTRAL HIGHLANDS-UPPER TULAROSA VALLEY-
SOUTH CENTRAL MOUNTAINS-RATON RIDGE/JOHNSON MESA-
FAR NORTHEAST HIGHLANDS-NORTHEAST HIGHLANDS-UNION COUNTY-
HARDING COUNTY-EASTERN SAN MIGUEL COUNTY-GUADALUPE COUNTY-
QUAY COUNTY-CURRY COUNTY-ROOSEVELT COUNTY-DE BACA COUNTY-
CHAVES COUNTY PLAINS-EASTERN LINCOLN COUNTY-SOUTHWEST CHAVES COUNTY-
543 AM MDT WED SEP 24 2014

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF NORTH AND CENTRAL
NEW MEXICO.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT

A FEW STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WITH HAIL AND WIND GUSTS AS HIGH AS 50
MPH WILL BE POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING MAINLY EAST
OF A LINE FROM FOLSOM TO MOUNTAINAIR TO RUIDOSO. LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN
WILL LIKELY ACCOMPANY THE STRONGER STORMS...ESPECIALLY SOUTH OF
INTERSTATE 40 AND WITHIN THE AFOREMENTIONED AREA.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY

A FEW STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WITH SMALL HAIL AND GUSTY WINDS WILL BE
POSSIBLE THURSDAY AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING NEAR AND SOUTH OF A
LINE FROM CLAYTON TO LOS ALAMOS TO FENCE LAKE. RELATIVELY BRIEF...
LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN MAY ACCOMPANY THE STRONGER STORMS...ESPECIALLY
SOUTH OF INTERSTATE 40 AND WITHIN THE AFOREMENTIONED AREA.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT ANTICIPATED.

43

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBUQUERQUE NM
322 PM MDT WED SEP 24 2014

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0305 PM     TSTM WND DMG     1 S BROADVIEW           34.80N 103.21W
09/24/2014                   CURRY              NM   TRAINED SPOTTER

            BROKEN GLASS AND LARGE TREE KNOCKED OVER DUE WINDS.

&&

EVENT NUMBER ABQ1401160

JF