Severe Thunderstorm Warning 161, NWS Albuquerque, NM

399 
WWUS55 KABQ 240151
SVSABQ

SEVERE WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBUQUERQUE NM
751 PM MDT MON JUN 23 2014

NMC005-240200-
/O.CON.KABQ.SV.W.0161.000000T0000Z-140624T0200Z/
CHAVES NM-
751 PM MDT MON JUN 23 2014

...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 800 PM MDT
FOR CENTRAL CHAVES COUNTY...

AT 746 PM MDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR CONTINUED TO
INDICATE A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM CAPABLE OF PRODUCING GOLF BALL SIZE
HAIL...AND DAMAGING WINDS IN EXCESS OF 60 MPH.  THIS STORM WAS
LOCATED OVER EXTREME NORTHWESTERN EDDY COUNTY...OR ABOUT 21 MILES
WEST OF ARTESIA...MOVING SOUTHEAST AT 20 MPH.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

THIS IS A DANGEROUS STORM. IF YOU ARE IN ITS PATH...PREPARE
IMMEDIATELY FOR DAMAGING WINDS...DESTRUCTIVE HAIL...AND DEADLY CLOUD
TO GROUND LIGHTNING. PEOPLE OUTSIDE SHOULD MOVE TO A SHELTER...
PREFERABLY INSIDE A STRONG BUILDING BUT AWAY FROM WINDOWS.

&&

LAT...LON 3287 10484 3300 10489 3309 10474 3297 10448
      3296 10449 3295 10483 3287 10483
TIME...MOT...LOC 0151Z 314DEG 19KT 3294 10474

$$

SHOEMAKE

790 
WWUS55 KABQ 240158
SVSABQ

SEVERE WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBUQUERQUE NM
758 PM MDT MON JUN 23 2014

NMC005-240208-
/O.EXP.KABQ.SV.W.0161.000000T0000Z-140624T0200Z/
CHAVES NM-
758 PM MDT MON JUN 23 2014

...THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING FOR CENTRAL CHAVES COUNTY WILL
EXPIRE AT 800 PM MDT...

NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED THAT THE SEVERE
THUNDERSTORM HAS EXITED THE WARNED AREA...THUS THE WARNING HAS BEEN
ALLOWED TO EXPIRE.

LAT...LON 3287 10484 3300 10489 3309 10474 3297 10448
      3296 10449 3295 10483 3287 10483
TIME...MOT...LOC 0158Z 314DEG 19KT 3291 10471

$$

SHOEMAKE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBUQUERQUE NM
544 PM MDT MON JUN 23 2014

.AVIATION...
00Z TAF CYCLE
GENERAL WLY FLOW ALOFT. SCT CU AND BUILDUPS WEST OF THE CENTRAL MT
CHAIN BEFORE SUNSET WILL RESULT IN VIRGA AND GUSTY WINDS TO AROUND
40KT. EAST OF THE CENTRAL MT CHAIN...LOW LEVEL MOISTURE MORE
PLENTIFUL...AND LINE OF CONVECTION STRETCHING FROM NR KRTN TO KSRR
AT 00Z...WITH ISOLD STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS WITH HAIL AND WIND
GUSTS TO AROUND 45-50KT WILL CONTINUE TO TRACK EASTWARD THROUGH
03Z. THEREAFTER FORECAST MODELS SUGGEST AN AREA OF SHOWERS AND STORMS
MAY DEVELOP OVER THE EAST CENTRAL PLAINS...PERSISTING THROUGH AROUND
12Z AND SENDING AN OUTFLOW BOUNDARY WESTWARD TO THE CENTRAL MT
CHAIN. IF THIS OCCURS...SOME MVFR CIGS MAY DEVELOP ALONG THE EAST
SLOPES AND OVER PORTIONS OF THE PLAINS...BUT SHOULD CLEAR BY
24/15Z. NOT THINKING THE OUTFLOW BOUNDARY WILL BE ENOUGH TO SPARK
CONVECTION IN THE RGV LATER TONIGHT THOUGH.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...254 PM MDT MON JUN 23 2014...
.SYNOPSIS...
ACTIVE WEATHER THROUGH TUESDAY MOSTLY FROM THE CENTRAL MOUNTAINS
EAST TO THE TEXAS BORDER. THIS INCLUDES THE POTENTIAL FOR SEVERE
WEATHER ACROSS MUCH OF THE EAST LATER THIS AFTERNOON INTO TONIGHT
AND AGAIN TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING IN THE FAR NORTHEAST. WE
WILL THEN BEGIN TO SEE A GRADUAL DRYING TREND FOR THE SECOND HALF
OF THE WEEK WITH A MOSTLY DRY WEEKEND AND EARLY NEXT WEEK...THANKS
TO A SLOWLY BUILDING HIGH PRESSURE AREA. WHILE WE CANT RULE OUT
STRAY SHOWERS OR STORMS IN THE NORTHERN MOUNTAINS OR FAR EASTERN
PLAINS THE VAST MAJORITY OF THE TIME AND AREA WILL BE RAINFREE
FROM THURSDAY THROUGH NEXT MONDAY.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS FIRING OVER THE CENTRAL MOUNTAINS AND
SPILLING ONTO THE EASTERN HIGHLANDS. THEY ARE BEHAVING SO FAR BUT
WE EXPECT THEM TO GROW IN COVERAGE AND INTENSITY AS WE PROGRESS
THROUGH THE EVENING. IN FACT THE BULK OF THE ACTIVITY MAY OCCUR
AROUND AND AFTER DARK ACROSS THE FAR EASTERN PLAINS...PROBABLY
LASTING TO MIDNIGHT OR LATER. ISOLATED SEVERE STORMS WITH LARGE
HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS WILL BE A CONCERN. A FEW SHOWERS ARE
TRYING TO FORM OVER THE GILA REGION THIS PM BUT WILL BE MORE
WIND PRODUCERS THAN RAIN MAKERS.

ANOTHER ACTIVE DAY ON TUESDAY...BUT LIKELY LESS COVERAGE THAN
TODAY. ANY SEVERE WEATHER LOOKS TO BE FOCUSED IN THE NORTHEAST.
MOST OF THE ACTIVITY WILL AGAIN BE EAST OF THE CENTRAL MOUNTAIN
CHAIN. ANY HOPES FOR A LITTLE RAIN IN THE RIO GRANDE VALLEY WILL
HINGE ON MOIST OUTFLOWS POURING THROUGH THE MOUNTAIN PASSES AND
CANYONS TONIGHT. TEMPERATURES WILL WARM A FEW DEGREES AND BE
MOSTLY ABOVE NORMAL TUESDAY.

SOME DRYING IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH THE REST OF THE WEEK
AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE SOUTHWEST AND A STORM PASSES
TO OUR NORTH. WEDNESDAY WILL STILL PRODUCE ISOLATED TO SCATTERED
ACTIVITY OVER THE EAST. BUT THEN THE HIGHER HEIGHTS WILL SUPPRESS
THE CONVECTION WHILE THE THE TROUGH WILL TRY AND SCOUR MUCH OF THE
MOISTURE OUT OF THE STATE BY THE END OF THE WEEK. WE CANNOT RULE
OUT ISOLATED STORMS ANY AFTERNOON OR EVENING FROM THURSDAY THROUGH
NEXT MONDAY BUT THEY WILL BE FEW AND FAR BETWEEN. MOST OF THE
FORECAST AREA WILL BE DRY A VAST MAJORITY OF THIS TIME.

LONG RANGE MODELS BRING A BACK DOOR FRONT TO THE EAST IN THE
LATER TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY TIME PERIOD. THIS COULD PROVIDE AN
OPPORTUNITY FOR AN INCREASE IN MOISTURE AND PRECIPITATION CHANCES.
CHJ

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
A BACKDOOR COLD FRONT HAS PUSHED SOUTH THROUGH THE EASTERN PLAINS
TODAY. OVERNIGHT THROUGH THIS MORNING A SHALLOW LAYER OF LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE PUSHED INTO THE RIO GRANDE VALLEY...MUCH OF IT HAS BEEN
MODIFIED/MIXED OUT INTO THE LOWER ATMOSPHERE THROUGH OUT THE DAY.
AS A RESULT...ONLY SLIGHT CHANCE OF DRY THUNDERSTORMS WEST OF THE
CENTRAL MOUNTAINS WHILE THE BEST CHANCES AND GREATER COVERAGE FOR
WETTING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EAST OF THE CENTRAL MOUNTAINS
ACROSS THE EASTERN PLAINS.  THE MOST INTENSE PERHAPS SEVERE STORMS
WILL BE ACROSS THE FAR EAST CENTRAL PLAINS THIS EVENING.

TOMORROW MODERATE WEST WINDS ALOFT WILL DOMINATE WEST OF THE CENTRAL
MOUNTAIN CHAIN ALLOWING FOR ISOLATED HIGH BASED DRY STORMS WILL
PREVAIL. BEST CHANCES FOR WET THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE FOUND TOMORROW
AFTERNOON AND EVENING EAST OF THE CENTRAL MOUNTAINS.

NO CRITICAL FIRE VALUES REACHED TODAY AND TOMORROW.  HOWEVER...A FEW
HOURS OF SUPER HAINES CONDITIONS EXPECTED OVER THE CHUSKA MOUNTAINS
TOMORROW AFTERNOON.  IN ADDITION...THURSDAY AFTERNOON A FEW HOURS OF
SUPER HAINES CONDITIONS DEVELOP OVER THE SOUTHWESTERN MOUNTAINS...
THE BLACK RANGE NORTH TO THE SAN MATEO MOUNTAINS...THE GALLINAS
MOUNTAINS...THE MAGDALENA MOUNTAINS AND NORTH TOWARDS MOUNT TAYLOR.
OVERNIGHT RH RECOVERIES ARE POOR TO FAIR WEST OF THE CENTRAL
MOUNTAINS AND FAIR TO GOOD TO EXCELLENT FROM THE CENTRAL MOUNTAINS
EAST TOWARDS THE TEXAS STATE LINE. VENT RATES GOOD TODAY ACROSS THE
WEST AND TRENDING TOWARDS GOOD ALL AREAS BY WEDNESDAY THROUGH THE
END OF THE WEEK.

AS A WEAK UPPER LEVEL TROUGH APPROACHES FROM THE WEST-NORTHWEST
WEDNESDAY...INCREASING THE DRY WESTERLIES AREAWIDE AND SHUNTING LOW
LEVEL GULF MOISTURE EAST INTO TEXAS. EXTENDED RANGE MODELS INDICATE
A WEAK UPPER TROUGH PASSAGE ON SATURDAY.  MODEL INDICATES MOIST
SOUTHERLY SURFACE FLOW PATTERNS OVER TEXAS...PERHAPS ALONG EDGING
INTO NEW MEXICO ACROSS THE FAR SOUTHEAST CORNER AND ALONG THE TX/NM
LINE. EXTENDED RANGE MODELS TRENDING TOWARDS THE BUILDING OF A UPPER
LEVEL SUBTROPICAL HIGH OVER NEAR THE FOUR CORNERS ABOUT 7 DAYS FROM
NOW.  THIS PATTERN WOULD ALLOW FOR INCREASED MOISTURE INFLUX INTO
THE REGION. 01

&&

.ABQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBUQUERQUE NM
953 AM MDT MON JUN 23 2014

NMZ501>540-241200-
NORTHWEST PLATEAU-CHUSKA MOUNTAINS-FAR NORTHWEST HIGHLANDS-
NORTHWEST HIGHLANDS-WEST CENTRAL PLATEAU-WEST CENTRAL MOUNTAINS-
WEST CENTRAL HIGHLANDS-SOUTHWEST MOUNTAINS-
SAN FRANCISCO RIVER VALLEY-SAN JUAN MOUNTAINS-JEMEZ MOUNTAINS-
WEST SLOPES SANGRE DE CRISTO MOUNTAINS-
NORTHERN SANGRE DE CRISTO MOUNTAINS ABOVE 9500 FEET/RED RIVER-
SOUTHERN SANGRE DE CRISTO MOUNTAINS ABOVE 9500 FEET-
EAST SLOPES SANGRE DE CRISTO MOUNTAINS-UPPER RIO GRANDE VALLEY-
LOWER CHAMA RIVER VALLEY-SANTA FE METRO AREA-ALBUQUERQUE METRO AREA-
LOWER RIO GRANDE VALLEY-SANDIA/MANZANO MOUNTAINS-ESTANCIA VALLEY-
CENTRAL HIGHLANDS-SOUTH CENTRAL HIGHLANDS-UPPER TULAROSA VALLEY-
SOUTH CENTRAL MOUNTAINS-RATON RIDGE/JOHNSON MESA-
FAR NORTHEAST HIGHLANDS-NORTHEAST HIGHLANDS-UNION COUNTY-
HARDING COUNTY-EASTERN SAN MIGUEL COUNTY-GUADALUPE COUNTY-
QUAY COUNTY-CURRY COUNTY-ROOSEVELT COUNTY-DE BACA COUNTY-
CHAVES COUNTY PLAINS-EASTERN LINCOLN COUNTY-SOUTHWEST CHAVES COUNTY-
953 AM MDT MON JUN 23 2014

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF NORTH AND CENTRAL
NEW MEXICO.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT

THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS BETWEEN 3 PM AND
12 AM MDT ACROSS THE EASTERN PLAINS OF NEW MEXICO. THE FOCUS FOR
SEVERE WEATHER WILL BE PRIMARILY ON A LINE FROM DUNKEN...HONDO...
MILAGRO...WATROUS...CIMARRON TO THE COLORADO BORDER...EAST TO THE
TEXAS STATE LINE. THE MAIN THREATS ARE VERY LARGE HAIL ONE TO TWO
AND A HALF INCHES IN DIAMETER AND POTENTIALLY DAMAGING STRAIGHT
LINE WINDS IN EXCESS OF 70 MPH. TORRENTIAL DOWNPOURS WILL OCCUR.
AN ISOLATED TORNADO CANNOT BE RULED OUT.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY

THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS TUESDAY AFTERNOON
AND EVENING ACROSS UNION COUNTY. THE MAIN THREATS ARE LARGE HAIL
AND POTENTIALLY DAMAGING STRAIGHT LINE WINDS. AGAIN...AN ISOLATED
TORNADO CANNOT BE RULED OUT.

STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING COULD BRIEFLY
REACH SEVERE LEVELS ACROSS THE EASTERN HALF OF THE STATE.

WEATHER CAN CHANGE VERY RAPIDLY. ALWAYS USE THE LATEST FORECASTS...
WATCHES AND WARNINGS FOR PLANNING PURPOSES.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTERS SHOULD REPORT SEVERE WEATHER THROUGH THE NATIONAL WEATHER
SERVICE ALBUQUERQUE WEB SITE OR BY CALLING 1.888.386.7637.

40

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBUQUERQUE NM
513 PM MDT MON JUN 23 2014

NMZ526-539-232345-
EASTERN LINCOLN COUNTY-SOUTH CENTRAL MOUNTAINS-
513 PM MDT MON JUN 23 2014

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR SOUTHERN LINCOLN COUNTY THROUGH
545 PM MDT...

AT 513 PM MDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A
STRONG THUNDERSTORM NEAR LINCOLN STATE MONUMENT...OR ABOUT 19 MILES
NORTHEAST OF RUIDOSO...MOVING EAST AT 20 MPH.

HAIL UP TO THE SIZE OF NICKELS AND WIND GUSTS UP TO 50 MPH ARE
EXPECTED WITH THIS STORM...ALONG WITH HEAVY RAIN.

AREAS AFFECTED BY THIS STORM INCLUDE...SAN PATRICIO...HONDO...TINNIE
AND PICACHO.

THIS STORM MAY INTENSIFY...SO BE CERTAIN TO MONITOR LOCAL RADIO AND
TV STATIONS...AS WELL AS LOCAL CABLE TV OUTLETS...FOR ADDITIONAL
INFORMATION AND POSSIBLE WARNINGS FROM THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE.

&&

LAT...LON 3351 10504 3328 10513 3342 10551 3359 10544
TIME...MOT...LOC 2313Z 289DEG 17KT 3347 10537

34

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBUQUERQUE NM
515 PM MDT MON JUN 23 2014

NMZ533-232345-
GUADALUPE COUNTY-
515 PM MDT MON JUN 23 2014

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR NORTHWESTERN GUADALUPE COUNTY
THROUGH 545 PM MDT...

AT 515 PM MDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A
STRONG THUNDERSTORM 7 MILES SOUTHWEST OF ANTON CHICO...OR ABOUT 32
MILES WEST OF SANTA ROSA...MOVING EAST AT 15 MPH.

HAIL UP TO THE SIZE OF NICKELS AND WIND GUSTS UP TO 50 MPH ARE
EXPECTED WITH THIS STORM...ALONG WITH HEAVY RAIN.

AREAS AFFECTED BY THIS STORM INCLUDE...ANTON CHICO.

THIS WILL IMPACT INTERSTATE 40 BETWEEN MILE MARKERS 250 AND 257...

THIS STORM MAY INTENSIFY...SO BE CERTAIN TO MONITOR LOCAL RADIO AND
TV STATIONS...AS WELL AS LOCAL CABLE TV OUTLETS...FOR ADDITIONAL
INFORMATION AND POSSIBLE WARNINGS FROM THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE.

&&

LAT...LON 3493 10500 3505 10529 3515 10529 3522 10526
      3522 10522 3514 10490
TIME...MOT...LOC 2315Z 292DEG 12KT 3511 10519

34

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBUQUERQUE NM
527 PM MDT MON JUN 23 2014

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0515 PM     HAIL             LINCOLN                 33.49N 105.38W
06/23/2014  E1.00 INCH       LINCOLN            NM   TRAINED SPOTTER

&&

EVENT NUMBER ABQ1401083

JLP

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBUQUERQUE NM
529 PM MDT MON JUN 23 2014

NMZ523-533-240000-
CENTRAL HIGHLANDS-GUADALUPE COUNTY-
529 PM MDT MON JUN 23 2014

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR EXTREME SOUTHWESTERN SAN
MIGUEL...NORTHEASTERN TORRANCE AND WESTERN GUADALUPE COUNTIES THROUGH
600 PM MDT...

AT 530 PM MDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A
STRONG THUNDERSTORM 19 MILES SOUTHWEST OF ANTON CHICO...OR ABOUT 25
MILES NORTH OF VAUGHN...MOVING EAST AT 15 MPH.

HAIL UP TO THE SIZE OF NICKELS AND WIND GUSTS UP TO 50 MPH ARE
EXPECTED WITH THIS STORM...ALONG WITH HEAVY RAIN.

AREAS AFFECTED BY THIS STORM INCLUDE...MILAGRO AND PINTADA.

THIS STORM MAY INTENSIFY...SO BE CERTAIN TO MONITOR LOCAL RADIO AND
TV STATIONS...AS WELL AS LOCAL CABLE TV OUTLETS...FOR ADDITIONAL
INFORMATION AND POSSIBLE WARNINGS FROM THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE.

&&

LAT...LON 3500 10503 3479 10507 3489 10543 3506 10539
TIME...MOT...LOC 2330Z 282DEG 12KT 3496 10530

34

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBUQUERQUE NM
555 PM MDT MON JUN 23 2014

NMZ528-530-240030-
FAR NORTHEAST HIGHLANDS-UNION COUNTY-
555 PM MDT MON JUN 23 2014

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR WESTERN UNION AND EXTREME
SOUTHEASTERN COLFAX COUNTIES THROUGH 630 PM MDT...

AT 556 PM MDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A
STRONG THUNDERSTORM NEAR GLADSTONE...OR ABOUT 31 MILES SOUTH OF DES
MOINES...MOVING EAST AT 10 MPH.

HAIL UP TO THE SIZE OF PENNIES AND WIND GUSTS UP TO 50 MPH ARE
EXPECTED WITH THIS STORM...ALONG WITH HEAVY RAIN.

AREAS AFFECTED BY THIS STORM INCLUDE...GLADSTONE.

IF THREATENING WEATHER APPROACHES YOUR AREA...TAKE SHELTER IN A
STURDY BUILDING.

&&

LAT...LON 3640 10368 3616 10376 3626 10409 3644 10402
TIME...MOT...LOC 2356Z 286DEG 9KT 3632 10395

34

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBUQUERQUE NM
632 PM MDT MON JUN 23 2014

NMZ533-240100-
GUADALUPE COUNTY-
632 PM MDT MON JUN 23 2014

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR CENTRAL GUADALUPE COUNTY THROUGH
700 PM MDT...

AT 629 PM MDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A
STRONG THUNDERSTORM 15 MILES SOUTH OF DILIA...OR ABOUT 22 MILES WEST
OF SANTA ROSA...MOVING EAST AT 15 MPH.

HAIL UP TO THE SIZE OF NICKELS AND WIND GUSTS UP TO 50 MPH ARE
EXPECTED WITH THIS STORM.

AREAS AFFECTED BY THIS STORM INCLUDE...SAN IGNACIO.

THIS WILL IMPACT INTERSTATE 40 BETWEEN MILE MARKERS 248 AND 263...

HAIL MAY ACCUMULATE ON THE INTERSTATE...CREATING SLICK AND
TREACHEROUS DRIVING CONDITIONS.

THIS STORM MAY INTENSIFY...SO BE CERTAIN TO MONITOR LOCAL RADIO AND
TV STATIONS...AS WELL AS LOCAL CABLE TV OUTLETS...FOR ADDITIONAL
INFORMATION AND POSSIBLE WARNINGS FROM THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE.

&&

LAT...LON 3513 10488 3487 10485 3490 10515 3508 10515
TIME...MOT...LOC 0031Z 269DEG 12KT 3498 10505

SHOEMAKE