Severe Thunderstorm Warning 121, NWS Albuquerque, NM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBUQUERQUE NM
606 PM MDT SUN JUN 8 2014

.AVIATION...
00Z TAF CYCLE
A LINE OF STRONG TO SEVERE TS WILL QUICKLY PASS SEWD ACROSS THE
NE AND E CENTRAL PLAINS EARLY THIS EVENING. THEN MESOSCALE MODELS
GENERALLY SHOW MORE CONVECTION...POSSIBLY IN A BROKEN
LINE...HEADING SOUTHWARD FROM THE E CENTRAL PLAINS OVER THE SE
PLAINS WITH A STRONG AND GUSTY BACK DOOR COLD FRONT DURING THE
OVERNIGHT HOURS. AFTER SUNSET AIRPORTS NEAR NEW MEXICOS E BORDER
WILL BE FAVORED FOR ANY ADDITIONAL TS...BUT THE GUSTY N OR NE
WIND SHIFT WITH THE COLD FRONT WILL IMPACT MUCH OF THE PLAINS.
MODELS SUGGEST THERE COULD BE ENOUGH MOISTURE AND UPSLOPE FLOW FOR
PATCHES OF LOW CLOUDS TO CROSS THE PLAINS DURING THE LATE EVENING
AND OVERNIGHT HOURS. SUMMER SUN WILL QUICKLY ERODE ANY LINGERING
LOW CLOUDS SHORTLY AFT SUNRISE. A MUCH NICER DAY ON TAP FOR MONDAY
WITH ONLY A SMALL CHANCE OF TS FM SANGRES EASTWARD.

44

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...226 PM MDT SUN JUN 8 2014...
.SYNOPSIS...
ONE LAST AFTERNOON AND EVENING FOR SEVERE WEATHER THEN A QUIETER
PERIOD THEREAFTER FOR SEVERAL DAYS. COLD FRONT AND UPPER LEVEL
SHORT WAVE CROSS SING NEW MEXICO THROUGH TONIGHT TO PROVIDE
IMPETUS FOR ONE MORE ROUND OF SEVERE WEATHER...THOUGH DRYING IS
ALREADY SHOWING UP AS OF 2 PM ACROSS MUCH OF NORTHWEST AND WEST
CENTRAL NEW MEXICO. HIGHEST RISK OF SEVERE WEATHER AGAIN TO BE
NEAR AND ESPECIALLY EAST OF CENTRAL MOUNTAIN CHAIN. SHOWERS AND
STORMS SHOULD DIMINISH AT LEAST A LITTLE SOONER LATE TONIGHT
ACROSS THE EAST THAN LAST NIGHT. VERY LITTLE ACTIVITY NEXT SEVERAL
DAYS...ESPECIALLY COMPARED WITH PREVIOUS FEW DAYS. SOME WARMING
BEGINS AGAIN MAINLY TUESDAY AND THROUGH AT LEAST THURSDAY.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
WITH TORNADO WATCH ALREADY ISSUED AND A FEW SEVERE STORMS ALREADY
ONGOING THIS TO BE SHORTER THAN USUAL. DRYING HAS PROGRESSED
SOMEWHAT FARTHER EAST AND SOUTH ACROSS ROUGHLY NW THIRD OF NM THAN
EARLIER EXPECTED...THUS POPS AND PRECIP HAVE BEEN SHAVED FURTHER
OVERNIGHT ACROSS WESTERN PORTIONS OF OF INHERITED RESPECTIVE
COVERAGE AREAS. TORNADO WATCH WATCH IN EFFECT AGAIN IN EXACTLY
THE SAME AREA AS WAS THE CASE LATE SAT...NEARLY ALL OF EAST HALF
OF NM...THROUGH 10 PM MDT THIS EVE. ACTIVITY MAY BE A LITTLE
LOWER IN COVERAGE ACROSS WATCH AREA COMPARED TO SAT...BUT PERHAPS
NOT BY MUCH. ALSO LOWERED THE RELATIVELY LOWER POPS COVERAGE OF
NEXT FEW DAYS...AT LEAST MOST OF THE AFFECTED PERIODS...AS LATEST
MODELS SHOWING EVEN LESS THAN THE RELATIVELY MEAGER MOISTURE
RETURN SHOWN EARLIER. UPPER RIDGE BUILDS IN...BUT NOT SHOWING AS
MUCH MOISTURE INFILTRATION AS BEFORE.

TEMPS TO BE RELATIVELY MODERATE THROUGH MON BEFORE WARMING UP
AGAIN MID WEEK PERIOD ALL AREAS. WINDS TO PICK UP SOME...
ESPECIALLY MID TO LATE WEEK. TIME IS UP.

43

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER OUTLOOK...HIGH BASED THUNDER WITH AN HOUR OR
TWO OF LOW HUMIDITIES AND GUSTY WINDS THROUGH THIS EVENING OVER THE
CONTINENTAL DIVIDE. FOR MONDAY...A FEW LATE AFTERNOON HOURS OF LOW
HUMIDITIES AND GUSTY WINDS OVER THE NORTHWEST PLATEAU. FOR
WEDNESDAY...LOW HUMIDITIES AND GUSTS CREATING RED FLAG CONDITIONS
SOUTH OF INTERSTATE 40 AND EAST OF INTERSTATE 25 OVER THE CENTRAL
MOUNTAIN CHAIN AND EAST CENTRAL PLAINS.

MODELS...IN GOOD AGREEMENT FOR NEW MEXICO THROUGH THE UPCOMING WORK
WEEK AND WEEKEND...AND INTO THE FIRST HALF OF THE FOLLOWING WORK
WEEK. SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVING ACROSS NORTHERN NEW MEXICO TODAY WILL
END UP OVER THE TEXAS PANHANDLE TONIGHT AS RIDGE BUILDS OVER THE
GULF OF CALIFORNIA. PATTERN WILL PUSH NORTHWEST FLOW ACROSS THE
STATE BEFORE RIDGE CORE EXPANDS NORTHWARD OVER NEW MEXICO LATE
TUESDAY. NEXT PACIFIC SHORTWAVE OUT OF SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA WILL
SHEAR RAPIDLY TO THE CENTRAL PLAINS STATES LATE WEDNESDAY AS RIDGE
REMAINS STRONG AND STATIONARY OVER NORTHERN MEXICO. RIDGE WILL HANG
TOUGH FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE WORK WEEK...BUT A SOUTHWARD DRIFT BY
THE WEEKEND WILL ALLOW FASTER FLOW AND EMBEDDED SHORT WAVES TO CLIP
THE NORTHERN END OF THE STATE FOR MUCH OF THE WEEKEND. SUBSTANTIAL
PACIFIC SYSTEM AMPLIFYING OVER THE NORTHWEST WILL EXPAND CIRCULATION
TO SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA BY LATE MONDAY NIGHT...BACKING NEW MEXICO
FLOW TO SOUTHWEST THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT.

OVERNIGHT...A LITTLE COOLER OVERNIGHT WITH GOOD TO EXCELLENT
RECOVERIES OVER THE EAST...AND FAIR RECOVERIES IN THE WEST. STRONG
TO SEVERE CONVECTION WILL REMAIN IN PLAY OVER THE EASTERN HALF OF
THE STATE WITH LOW CLOUDS BLANKETING AREAS CLOSER TO THE TEXAS
BORDER.

FOR MONDAY...BLUSTERY NORTHWEST FLOW OVERHEAD AS LESS ORGANIZED DOME
OF HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS AT THE SURFACE. CONVECTION WILL DECREASE IN
COVERAGE AND INTENSITY...WITH BEST CHANCES FOR INITIATION OVER THE
CENTRAL MOUNTAIN CHAIN EAST SLOPES AND ADJACENT PLAINS...AND OVER
THE CONTINENTAL DIVIDE. DRYING TREND UNDERWAY WILL DROP MINIMUM
HUMIDITIES INTO THE TEENS AND 20S OVER THE EAST...WITH VERY DRY
CONDITIONS CONTINUING OVER THE WEST. COOLER THAN NORMAL CENTRAL AND
EAST...WITH NEAR NORMAL OR A FEW DEGREES ABOVE IN THE WEST.
AFTERNOON GUSTS WILL RUN NORTHERLY NEAR THE TEXAS AND OKLAHOMA
BORDERS NORTH OF INTERSTATE 40. LOCAL NORTHWEST GUSTS OVER THE
NORTHWEST PLATEAU OVER DRY COUNTRY WILL SET UP AN HOUR OR TWO OF
LATE AFTERNOON RED FLAG CONDITIONS. VENTILATION GENERALLY VERY GOOD
TO EXCELLENT...GOOD CONDITIONS OVER THE EASTERN SLOPES OF THE
CENTRAL MOUNTAIN CHAIN. GOOD HUMIDITY RECOVERIES EAST...FAIR IN THE
WEST.

FOR TUESDAY...RIDGE FROM NORTHERN MEXICO EXPANDING NORTHWARD AS DOME
OF SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE SHIFTS TO THE TEXAS PANHANDLE. STRONG
WARMING TREND WILL BRING BULK OF THE STATE ABOVE NORMAL...WITH A FEW
NORMAL OR A FEW DEGREES BELOW HIGH TEMPERATURES OVER THE EXTREME
EAST. VERY SPOTTY THUNDERSTORM COVERAGE...MAINLY OVER THE
CONTINENTAL DIVIDE SOUTH OF I 40...AND OVER THE NORTHEAST HIGHLANDS
AND ADJACENT PLAINS. LITTLE IN THE WAY OF WETTING RAINS WITH THESE
STORMS. SOUTHWEST BREEZES GENERALLY MODEST...AS MINIMUM HUMIDITIES
BOTTOM IN THE TEENS EAST...AND REMAIN IN SINGLE DIGITS TO THE WEST.
BROADLY FAIR HUMIDITY RECOVERIES...PUSHING TOWARD GOOD IN THE
EXTREME EAST. NO VENTILATION ISSUES...BEST IN THE WEST...DROPPING
TOWARD GOOD IN THE EAST.

FOR WEDNESDAY...COOL FRONT APPROACHING FROM THE WEST...WITH WARMING
UP TICK IN THE EAST. ALL POINTS WILL END UP NORMAL OR BETTER WITH
MAXIMUM TEMPERATURES FOR THE DAY...3 TO 8 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL IN
THE EAST. DRY LINE BECOMING ACTIVE AS SURFACE LOW PARKS OVER EASTERN
COLORADO AND EXTENDS TROUGH SOUTHWARD ACROSS EASTERN NEW MEXICO TO
THE TEXAS BIG BEND COUNTRY. GUSTY SOUTHWEST WINDS NEAR THE TROUGH
AXIS WILL COMBINE WITH ROCK BOTTOM MINIMUM HUMIDITIES TO PRODUCE A
WIDESPREAD AREA OF RED FLAG CONDITIONS EAST OF INTERSTATE 25 AND
SOUTH OF INTERSTATE 40...ENCOMPASSING SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF THE
CENTRAL MOUNTAIN CHAIN...AND THE EAST CENTRAL PLAINS SOUTH OF I 40.
NO VENTILATION ISSUES...WITH FAIR OVERNIGHT HUMIDITY RECOVERIES.

OUTLOOK...THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...REMAINING ABOVE NORMAL DESPITE
COOL INCURSION INTO THE NORTHEAST LATE THURSDAY...WITH DEEPENING
SURFACE TROUGH FROM EASTERN COLORADO TO THE TEXAS BIG BEND BY FRIDAY
NIGHT SIGNALING AN ACTIVE DRY LINE PATTERN SETTING UP OVER THE EAST
AS THE WORK WEEK WINDS UP. SURFACE LOW WILL SHIFT TO THE OKLAHOMA
PANHANDLE ON SATURDAY TO SUPPORT BROAD WEST TO NORTHWEST WINDS
ACROSS THE STATE AS THE WEEKEND GETS UNDERWAY...AND SHOVE DRY LINE
BACK TO THE EAST INTO THE SOUTHERN PLAINS STATES. NO VENTILATION
ISSUES.

SHY

&&

.ABQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBUQUERQUE NM
540 AM MDT SUN JUN 8 2014

NMZ501>540-091200-
NORTHWEST PLATEAU-CHUSKA MOUNTAINS-FAR NORTHWEST HIGHLANDS-
NORTHWEST HIGHLANDS-WEST CENTRAL PLATEAU-WEST CENTRAL MOUNTAINS-
WEST CENTRAL HIGHLANDS-SOUTHWEST MOUNTAINS-
SAN FRANCISCO RIVER VALLEY-SAN JUAN MOUNTAINS-JEMEZ MOUNTAINS-
WEST SLOPES SANGRE DE CRISTO MOUNTAINS-
NORTHERN SANGRE DE CRISTO MOUNTAINS ABOVE 9500 FEET/RED RIVER-
SOUTHERN SANGRE DE CRISTO MOUNTAINS ABOVE 9500 FEET-
EAST SLOPES SANGRE DE CRISTO MOUNTAINS-UPPER RIO GRANDE VALLEY-
LOWER CHAMA RIVER VALLEY-SANTA FE METRO AREA-ALBUQUERQUE METRO AREA-
LOWER RIO GRANDE VALLEY-SANDIA/MANZANO MOUNTAINS-ESTANCIA VALLEY-
CENTRAL HIGHLANDS-SOUTH CENTRAL HIGHLANDS-UPPER TULAROSA VALLEY-
SOUTH CENTRAL MOUNTAINS-RATON RIDGE/JOHNSON MESA-
FAR NORTHEAST HIGHLANDS-NORTHEAST HIGHLANDS-UNION COUNTY-
HARDING COUNTY-EASTERN SAN MIGUEL COUNTY-GUADALUPE COUNTY-
QUAY COUNTY-CURRY COUNTY-ROOSEVELT COUNTY-DE BACA COUNTY-
CHAVES COUNTY PLAINS-EASTERN LINCOLN COUNTY-SOUTHWEST CHAVES COUNTY-
540 AM MDT SUN JUN 8 2014

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF NORTHERN AND
CENTRAL NEW MEXICO.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT

STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED IN THE EASTERN HALF OF
NEW MEXICO AGAIN TODAY. DAMAGING WINDS FROM THUNDERSTORMS AND
LARGE HAIL WILL BE THE PRIMARY THREATS...BUT AN ISOLATED TORNADO
OR TWO CANNOT BE RULED OUT.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY

STRONGER WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP ON WEDNESDAY WITH LOWER
HUMIDITY MOVING INTO NEW MEXICO. THIS WILL CREATE THE POTENTIAL
FOR CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AND
EVENING IN EASTERN NEW MEXICO.

WEATHER CAN CHANGE VERY RAPIDLY. ALWAYS USE THE LATEST FORECASTS...
WATCHES AND WARNINGS FOR PLANNING PURPOSES.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTERS WITHIN EASTERN NEW MEXICO SHOULD BE ALERT AND READY TO
REPORT ANY SEVERE WEATHER TO THE ALBUQUERQUE NATIONAL WEATHER
SERVICE. YOU CAN SUBMIT YOUR REPORT AT 1.888.386.7637 OR VIA THE
WEB AT WEATHER.GOV/ABQ. YOU CAN ALSO SUBMIT STORM REPORTS AND
PHOTOS ONTO OUR FACEBOOK PAGE OR VIA TWITTER USING THE HASHTAG N M
W X.

52

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