Red Flag Warning 37, NWS Albuquerque, NM

794 
WWUS85 KABQ 132121
RFWABQ

URGENT - FIRE WEATHER MESSAGE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBUQUERQUE NM
321 PM MDT FRI JUN 13 2014

...RED FLAG WARNING IN EFFECT THROUGH 8 PM TODAY FOR THE
NORTHWEST PLATEAU DUE TO STRONG WINDS...LOW HUMIDITY AND HIGH
INSTABILITY...

...RED FLAG WARNING IN EFFECT 11 AM TO 8 PM MDT SATURDAY FOR
WESTERN AND CENTRAL NEW MEXICO DUE TO STRONG WINDS...LOW HUMIDITY
AND HIGH INSTABILITY...

...FIRE WEATHER WATCH SATURDAY FOR THE NORTHEAST AND EAST CENTRAL
PLAINS DUE TO STRONG WINDS...LOW HUMIDITY AND HIGH INSTABILITY...

.UPPER LEVEL RIDGE IS BREAKING DOWN CAUSING WINDS TO INCREASE
ACROSS NORTHWEST NEW MEXICO WITH CONTINUED DRY AND UNSTABLE
CONDITIONS. WINDS WILL INCREASE FURTHER ON SATURDAY AREA WIDE AS
AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH CROSSES NORTH OF THE STATE. A DRY SLOT WILL
ALSO PUNCH IN FROM THE WEST CAUSING HUMIDITIES TO PLUMMET...
ESPECIALLY ACROSS WESTERN NEW MEXICO. SEVERAL HOURS OF SINGLE
DIGIT RELATIVE HUMIDITIES ARE EXPECTED FOR CENTRAL AND WESTERN
AREAS...AS WELL AS WIDESPREAD HIGH HAINES. THE CRITICAL THREAT FOR
THE NORTHEAST AND EAST CENTRAL PLAINS ON SATURDAY WILL BE
DETERMINED BY THE AMOUNT OF RAINFALL RECEIVED TONIGHT.

NMZ101-141400-
/O.CON.KABQ.FW.W.0037.000000T0000Z-140614T0200Z/
/O.CON.KABQ.FW.W.0036.140614T1700Z-140615T0200Z/
NEW MEXICO FIRE WEATHER ZONE 101
NORTHWEST PLATEAU/FARMINGTON BLM/ABZ-
321 PM MDT FRI JUN 13 2014

...RED FLAG WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 8 PM MDT THIS
EVENING...
...RED FLAG WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM 11 AM TO 8 PM MDT
SATURDAY...

A RED FLAG WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 8 PM MDT THIS EVENING.
A RED FLAG WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM 11 AM TO 8 PM MDT
SATURDAY. 

* AREA AND TIMING...NORTHWEST PLATEAU THROUGH EARLY EVENING AND
  LATE SATURDAY MORNING THROUGH EARLY EVENING.

* 20 FOOT WINDS...WEST TO SOUTHWEST 20 TO 25 MPH WITH GUSTS 
  NEAR 35 MPH TODAY. WESTERLY 20 TO 30 MPH WITH GUSTS NEAR 45 
  MPH ON SATURDAY.

* RELATIVE HUMIDITY...MINIMUMS 7 TO 14 PERCENT TODAY...4 TO 7 
  PERCENT ON SATURDAY.

* IMPACTS...ANY FIRES THAT DEVELOP WILL LIKELY SPREAD RAPIDLY. 
  OUTDOOR BURNING IS NOT RECOMMENDED.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

PLEASE ADVISE THE APPROPRIATE OFFICIALS OR FIRE CREWS IN THE
FIELD OF THIS RED FLAG WARNING.

&&

$$

NMZ102-103-105>107-109-141400-
/O.CON.KABQ.FW.W.0036.140614T1700Z-140615T0200Z/
NEW MEXICO FIRE WEATHER ZONE 102
NORTH CENTRAL MOUNTAINS/WESTERN CARSON-SANTA FE NF/SNZ-TAZ-
NEW MEXICO FIRE WEATHER ZONE 103
NORTHEAST HIGHLANDS/EASTERN CARSON AND SANTA FE NF/SNZ-TAZ-
NEW MEXICO FIRE WEATHER ZONE 105
NORTHWEST HIGHLANDS/WESTERN CIBOLA NF/ABZ-
NEW MEXICO FIRE WEATHER ZONE 106
MIDDLE RIO GRANDE VALLEY/ALBUQUERQUE-SOCORRO BLM/ABZ-GLZ-
NEW MEXICO FIRE WEATHER ZONE 107
SANDIA-MANZANO AND GALLINAS MOUNTAINS/EASTERN CIBOLA NF/ABZ-
NEW MEXICO FIRE WEATHER ZONE 109
WEST CENTRAL HIGHLANDS/SOUTHWEST CIBOLA NF AND SOCORRO BLM/ABQ-
GLZ-
321 PM MDT FRI JUN 13 2014

...RED FLAG WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM 11 AM TO 8 PM MDT
SATURDAY...

A RED FLAG WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM 11 AM TO 8 PM MDT
SATURDAY. 

* AREA AND TIMING...NORTH CENTRAL AND CENTRAL MOUNTAINS... 
  ADJACENT HIGHLANDS...MIDDLE AND UPPER RIO GRANDE VALLEY AND 
  WEST CENTRAL HIGHLANDS LATE SATURDAY MORNING THROUGH EARLY 
  EVENING. 

* 20 FOOT WINDS...WEST TO SOUTHWEST 25 TO 35 MPH WITH GUSTS 
  BETWEEN 45 AND 55 MPH.

* RELATIVE HUMIDITY...MINIMUMS 5 TO 13 PERCENT.

* IMPACTS...ANY FIRES THAT DEVELOP WILL LIKELY SPREAD RAPIDLY 
  AND WILL BE HARD TO CONTROL. LONG RANGE SPOTTING AND EXTREME 
  FIRE BEHAVIOR WILL BE POSSIBLE. OUTDOOR BURNING SHOULD NOT BE 
  DONE.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

PLEASE ADVISE THE APPROPRIATE OFFICIALS OR FIRE CREWS IN THE
FIELD OF THIS RED FLAG WARNING.

&&

$$

NMZ104-108-141400-
/O.CON.KABQ.FW.A.0043.140614T1700Z-140615T0200Z/
NEW MEXICO FIRE WEATHER ZONE 104
NORTHEAST PLAINS/EASTERN KIOWA AND RITA BLANCA GRASSLANDS/ABZ-TNZ-
NEW MEXICO FIRE WEATHER ZONE 108
EAST CENTRAL PLAINS/WESTERN KIOWA GRASSLANDS BLM/ABZ-SNZ-
321 PM MDT FRI JUN 13 2014

...FIRE WEATHER WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM SATURDAY MORNING
THROUGH SATURDAY EVENING...

A FIRE WEATHER WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM SATURDAY MORNING
THROUGH SATURDAY EVENING. 

* AREA AND TIMING...NORTHEAST AND EAST CENTRAL PLAINS SATURDAY 
  AFTERNOON THROUGH EARLY EVENING. 

* 20 FOOT WINDS...WEST TO SOUTHWEST 20 TO 30 MPH WITH GUSTS 
  BETWEEN 40 AND 50 MPH.

* RELATIVE HUMIDITY...MINIMUMS 12 TO 17 PERCENT.

* IMPACTS...ANY FIRES THAT DEVELOP WILL LIKELY SPREAD RAPIDLY. 
  OUTDOOR BURNING IS NOT RECOMMENDED.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

PLEASE ADVISE THE APPROPRIATE OFFICIALS OR FIRE CREWS IN THE
FIELD OF THIS FIRE WEATHER WATCH.

&&

$$

023 
WWUS85 KABQ 140152
RFWABQ

URGENT - FIRE WEATHER MESSAGE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBUQUERQUE NM
752 PM MDT FRI JUN 13 2014

...RED FLAG WARNING IN EFFECT 11 AM TO 8 PM MDT SATURDAY FOR
WESTERN AND CENTRAL NEW MEXICO DUE TO STRONG WINDS...LOW HUMIDITY
AND HIGH INSTABILITY...

...FIRE WEATHER WATCH SATURDAY FOR THE NORTHEAST AND EAST CENTRAL
PLAINS DUE TO STRONG WINDS...LOW HUMIDITY AND HIGH INSTABILITY...

.UPPER LEVEL RIDGE IS BREAKING DOWN CAUSING WINDS TO INCREASE
ACROSS NORTHWEST NEW MEXICO WITH CONTINUED DRY AND UNSTABLE
CONDITIONS. WINDS WILL INCREASE FURTHER ON SATURDAY AREA WIDE AS
AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH CROSSES NORTH OF THE STATE. A DRY SLOT WILL
ALSO PUNCH IN FROM THE WEST CAUSING HUMIDITIES TO PLUMMET...
ESPECIALLY ACROSS WESTERN NEW MEXICO. SEVERAL HOURS OF SINGLE
DIGIT RELATIVE HUMIDITIES ARE EXPECTED FOR CENTRAL AND WESTERN
AREAS...AS WELL AS WIDESPREAD HIGH HAINES. THE CRITICAL THREAT
FOR THE NORTHEAST AND EAST CENTRAL PLAINS ON SATURDAY WILL BE
DETERMINED BY THE AMOUNT OF RAINFALL RECEIVED TONIGHT.

NMZ101-141400-
/O.EXP.KABQ.FW.W.0037.000000T0000Z-140614T0200Z/
/O.CON.KABQ.FW.W.0036.140614T1700Z-140615T0200Z/
NEW MEXICO FIRE WEATHER ZONE 101
NORTHWEST PLATEAU/FARMINGTON BLM/ABZ-
752 PM MDT FRI JUN 13 2014

...RED FLAG WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM 11 AM TO 8 PM MDT
SATURDAY...
...RED FLAG WARNING WILL EXPIRE AT 8 PM MDT THIS EVENING...

A RED FLAG WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM 11 AM TO 8 PM MDT
SATURDAY. 

* AREA AND TIMING...NORTHWEST PLATEAU LATE SATURDAY MORNING
  THROUGH EARLY EVENING.

* 20 FOOT WINDS...WESTERLY 20 TO 30 MPH WITH GUSTS NEAR 45 MPH ON
  SATURDAY.

* RELATIVE HUMIDITY...MINIMUMS 4 TO 7 PERCENT SATURDAY.

* IMPACTS...ANY FIRES THAT DEVELOP WILL LIKELY SPREAD RAPIDLY. 
  OUTDOOR BURNING IS NOT RECOMMENDED.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

PLEASE ADVISE THE APPROPRIATE OFFICIALS OR FIRE CREWS IN THE
FIELD OF THIS RED FLAG WARNING.

&&

$$

NMZ102-103-105>107-109-141400-
/O.CON.KABQ.FW.W.0036.140614T1700Z-140615T0200Z/
NEW MEXICO FIRE WEATHER ZONE 102
NORTH CENTRAL MOUNTAINS/WESTERN CARSON-SANTA FE NF/SNZ-TAZ-
NEW MEXICO FIRE WEATHER ZONE 103
NORTHEAST HIGHLANDS/EASTERN CARSON AND SANTA FE NF/SNZ-TAZ-
NEW MEXICO FIRE WEATHER ZONE 105
NORTHWEST HIGHLANDS/WESTERN CIBOLA NF/ABZ-
NEW MEXICO FIRE WEATHER ZONE 106
MIDDLE RIO GRANDE VALLEY/ALBUQUERQUE-SOCORRO BLM/ABZ-GLZ-
NEW MEXICO FIRE WEATHER ZONE 107
SANDIA-MANZANO AND GALLINAS MOUNTAINS/EASTERN CIBOLA NF/ABZ-
NEW MEXICO FIRE WEATHER ZONE 109
WEST CENTRAL HIGHLANDS/SOUTHWEST CIBOLA NF AND SOCORRO BLM/ABQ-
GLZ-
752 PM MDT FRI JUN 13 2014

...RED FLAG WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM 11 AM TO 8 PM MDT
SATURDAY...

A RED FLAG WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM 11 AM TO 8 PM MDT
SATURDAY. 

* AREA AND TIMING...NORTH CENTRAL AND CENTRAL MOUNTAINS... 
  ADJACENT HIGHLANDS...MIDDLE AND UPPER RIO GRANDE VALLEY AND 
  WEST CENTRAL HIGHLANDS LATE SATURDAY MORNING THROUGH EARLY 
  EVENING. 

* 20 FOOT WINDS...WEST TO SOUTHWEST 25 TO 35 MPH WITH GUSTS 
  BETWEEN 45 AND 55 MPH.

* RELATIVE HUMIDITY...MINIMUMS 5 TO 13 PERCENT.

* IMPACTS...ANY FIRES THAT DEVELOP WILL LIKELY SPREAD RAPIDLY 
  AND WILL BE HARD TO CONTROL. LONG RANGE SPOTTING AND EXTREME 
  FIRE BEHAVIOR WILL BE POSSIBLE. OUTDOOR BURNING SHOULD NOT BE 
  DONE.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

PLEASE ADVISE THE APPROPRIATE OFFICIALS OR FIRE CREWS IN THE
FIELD OF THIS RED FLAG WARNING.

&&

$$

NMZ104-108-141400-
/O.CON.KABQ.FW.A.0043.140614T1700Z-140615T0200Z/
NEW MEXICO FIRE WEATHER ZONE 104
NORTHEAST PLAINS/EASTERN KIOWA AND RITA BLANCA GRASSLANDS/ABZ-TNZ-
NEW MEXICO FIRE WEATHER ZONE 108
EAST CENTRAL PLAINS/WESTERN KIOWA GRASSLANDS BLM/ABZ-SNZ-
752 PM MDT FRI JUN 13 2014

...FIRE WEATHER WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM SATURDAY MORNING
THROUGH SATURDAY EVENING...

A FIRE WEATHER WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM SATURDAY MORNING
THROUGH SATURDAY EVENING. 

* AREA AND TIMING...NORTHEAST AND EAST CENTRAL PLAINS SATURDAY 
  AFTERNOON THROUGH EARLY EVENING. 

* 20 FOOT WINDS...WEST TO SOUTHWEST 20 TO 30 MPH WITH GUSTS 
  BETWEEN 40 AND 50 MPH.

* RELATIVE HUMIDITY...MINIMUMS 12 TO 17 PERCENT.

* IMPACTS...ANY FIRES THAT DEVELOP WILL LIKELY SPREAD RAPIDLY. 
  OUTDOOR BURNING IS NOT RECOMMENDED.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

PLEASE ADVISE THE APPROPRIATE OFFICIALS OR FIRE CREWS IN THE
FIELD OF THIS FIRE WEATHER WATCH.

&&

$$

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBUQUERQUE NM
302 AM MDT FRI JUN 13 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A VERY INTERESTING FRIDAY. DRY STORMS IN THE WEST AND POSSIBLE
SEVERE WEATHER IN THE EAST. A DRYING TREND FOR THE WEEKEND WITH
INCREASED WESTERLY FLOW ALOFT. MODELS DIVERGE NEXT WEEK WITH THE
GFS BULLISH WITH MOISTURE OVER NM TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY WHILE THE
EUROPEAN AND CANADIAN KEEP THE MOISTURE TO THE EAST OF NM. DRY AND
SEASONABLE FOR THE END OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
LOW LEVEL MOISTURE POURING INTO THE RIO GRANDE VALLEY EARLY THIS
MORNING AND SHOULD MAKE IT TO THE CONTINENTAL DIVIDE. THIS SETS
UP AN INTERESTING DAY OF WEATHER. SIGNIFICANT AREA OF MOSTLY DRY
THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE IN THE FORECAST FOR THE WESTERN HALF OF THE
FORECAST AREA. EXTENT OF COURSE WILL DEPEND ON HOW MUCH MOISTURE
GETS SCOURED OUT BY AFTERNOON. EXPECTING DEWPOINTS TO BE IN THE
30S IN THE WEST AND AROUND 40 IN THE RIO GRANDE VALLEY. STORMS
WILL BE WET IN THE EAST AND POTENTIALLY SEVERE ACROSS ALL OF THE
EASTERN PLAINS. WILL CARRY LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS FOR THE
AREA FROM CHAVES COUNTY TO UNION COUNTY. BELIEVE THE MOST LIKELY
AREA FOR SEVERE WEATHER WILL BE CHAVES...ROOSEVELT AND CURRY
COUNTIES. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL BE WARMER IN THE EAST AND PRETTY
CLOSE TO NORMAL EVERYWHERE TODAY.

THE SEVERE THREAT WILL EXTEND THROUGH THE EVENING WITH THE GFS
MORPHING THE STORMS INTO AN MCS OVER OUR SE ZONES. THINGS SHOULD
QUIET DOWN AFTER MIDNIGHT.

WITH THE RIDGE AXIS SHIFTING EAST TODAY AND A SHORT WAVE TROUGH
APPROACHING SATURDAY AND CROSSING THE AREA SUNDAY WE WILL SEE THE
MOISTURE GET SCOURED OUT THIS WEEKEND. ENOUGH MOISTURE WILL LINGER
SATURDAY THOUGH FOR ISOLATED STORMS OVER THE EAST. IT WILL BE A
BREEZY TO WINDY AND WARM DAY AREA WIDE. A COLD FRONT WILL SWING
THROUGH THE STATE SATURDAY NIGHT WITH TEMPERATURES A BIT COOLER
SUNDAY...MAINLY IN THE EAST. SUNDAY LOOKS TO BE DRY.

MODELS DIVERGE NEXT WEEK WITH THE HANDLING OF THE NEXT UPSTREAM
TROUGH...CLOSED LOW AND WHERE THE MOISTURE PLUME WILL BE AHEAD OF
IT. THE GFS KEEPS THE LOW CENTERED OVER WA AND NORTHERN CA THROUGH
TUESDAY WHILE THE EUROPEAN AND CANADIAN BRING THE LOW FARTHER EAST.
THIS HAS BIG IMPLICATIONS AS TO WHERE THE MOISTURE AHEAD OF THE
SYSTEM WILL TRACK. GFS BRINGS SIGNIFICANT WIDESPREAD PRECIPITATION
TO THE STATE TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY WHILE THE OTHER LON RANGE MODELS
KEEP IT JUST EAST OF NM. WILL INTRODUCE LOW CHANCE POPS INTO THE
FORECAST FAVORING THE EAST IN THE TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY TIME
PERIOD AND WAIT FOR THE MODELS TO SORT THINGS OUT. CHJ

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
STILL LOOKING FOR AN ACTIVE WEATHER DAY ACROSS THE AREA WITH A
COMBO OF CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS ACROSS THE
NORTHWEST...MIX OF WET AND DRY STORMS CENTRAL AND WESTERN
AREAS...AND POTENTIAL SEVERE WEATHER ACROSS THE EAST. THEN ON
SATURDAY...WIDESPREAD CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS REMAIN ON
TAP.

BACK DOOR FRONT HAS PUSHED THRU THE GAPS OF THE CENTRAL MTN CHAIN
THIS MORNING...WITH DEWPOINTS RISING INTO THE UPPER 40S/LOW 50S
ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE RIO GRANDE VALLEY. EXPECT SOME OF THIS
MOISTURE TO MIX OUT THIS AFTERNOON. FURTHER WEST...LATEST MODELS
ARE SUGGESTING THAT SOME OF THE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE ACROSS
SOUTHERN ARIZONA WILL BE PULLED UP INTO WESTERN NM WITH SOUTHWEST
FLOW INCREASING THIS AFTERNOON. THUS...DEWPOINTS MAY ACTUALLY RISE
THROUGHOUT THE DAY. THIS SPELLS HUMIDITIES THAT LOOK TO BE MAINLY
ABOVE 15 PERCENT ACROSS ZONE 105. THIS COMBINED WITH THE FACT THAT
HAINES INDICES LOOK TO BE MAINLY 4S ACROSS THE ZONE...HAVE DECIDED
TO NOT UPGRADE THE FIRE WEATHER WATCH TO A RED FLAG WARNING.
HOWEVER...AREAS AROUND GALLUP COULD SEE AN HOUR OR TWO OF CRITICAL
CONDITIONS AS WINDS WILL NOT BE A PROBLEM. THE MOISTURE FROM AZ
DOES NOT LOOK LIKE IT WILL MAKE IT UP TO ZONE 101 IN
EARNEST...HAINES VALUES WILL REMAIN AT 5...OR PERHAPS 6 FAR
NW...THUS WILL GO AHEAD AND UPGRADE ZONE 101 TO A RED FLAG
WARNING.

OTHERWISE...STILL LOOKING FOR QUITE A BIT OF LIGHTNING TODAY...WITH
DRIER STORMS TO THE WEST...A MIX OF WET AND DRY ACROSS THE CENTRAL
THIRD OF THE AREA...AND WET...IF NOT SEVERE...STORMS TO THE EAST.
STORMS SHOULD GENERALLY MOVE FROM WEST TO EAST..IF NOT A LITTLE
SOUTHEAST...AND ON THE ORDER OF 20 TO 30 MPH. THESE FAST MOVING
STORMS WILL PRODUCE GUSTY AND ERRATIC MICROBURST WINDS ESPECIALLY
FROM THE CENTRAL MTN CHAIN WESTWARD. LAL 6 IS DEPICTED FOR THE
HIGHER TERRAIN FROM THE CENTRAL MTN CHAIN WESTWARD. MAINLY FAIR
HUMIDITY RECOVERIES ARE EXPECTED TONIGHT ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND
WEST...WITH GOOD TO EXCELLENT RECOVERIES ACROSS THE EAST.

WETTING RAINS OVER PORTIONS OF EASTERN NM TONIGHT MAY LIMIT THE
CRITICAL THREAT SATURDAY ACROSS THE NORTHEAST AND EAST CENTRAL
PLAINS. EVEN WITHOUT IT...HUMIDITIES WILL BE MARGINAL. WILL KEEP THE
FIRE WEATHER WATCH AS IS FOR THOSE ZONES FOR SATURDAY. ELSEWHERE...
THE RED FLAG WARNING LOOKS GOOD.  THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH MOVING
ACROSS THE CENTRAL ROCKIES WILL INCREASE WIND SPEEDS AREAWIDE...WITH
GUSTS NEAR 45-50 MPH POSSIBLE SATURDAY AFTN WITH STRONG MIXING. IN
FACT...THESE WINDS WILL START TO BUFFET THE HIGHER PEAKS TONIGHT.
WIDESPREAD HIGH HAINES AND MUCH LOWER HUMIDITIES WILL BE IN STORE
ACROSS THE WEST AS THE MID LEVEL DRY SLOT PUNCHES IN. SEVERAL HOURS
OF SINGLE DIGIT HUMIDITIES ARE EXPECTED FROM THE MIDDLE RIO GRANDE
VALLEY NORTHWEST ACROSS THE NW PLATEAU. THIS CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER
DAY IS ESPECIALLY CONCERNING GIVEN THE LIGHTNING POTENTIAL TODAY.

THE DRY SLOT WILL PUNCH FURTHER INTO THE STATE SATURDAY NIGHT AND
SUNDAY. MAINLY POOR HUMIDITY RECOVERIES ARE EXPECTED SATURDAY
NIGHT...EXCEPT ACROSS THE FAR EAST. WINDS WILL BE LIGHTER ON
SUNDAY...YET STILL BREEZY WHILE HUMIDITIES WILL BE EVEN DRIER FOR
WESTERN AND CENTRAL AREAS. BETWEEN 8 AND 12 HOURS OF SINGLE DIGIT
HUMIDITIES ARE PROJECTED FOR MOST AREAS ALONG AND WEST OF THE
CENTRAL MTN CHAIN.

MONDAY LOOKS TO REMAIN DRY...BREEZY AND UNSTABLE. A FEW HOURS OF
CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE ACROSS THE NORTHEAST.
BUT STARTING MONDAY NIGHT...MODEL AGREEMENT REMAINS SUB-PAR. THAT
SAID...THE GFS AND ECMWF SEEM TO BE AGREEING ON THE GENERAL UPPER
AIR PATTERN DURING THE MID WEEK PERIOD. THAT IS...A LARGE UPPER
LEVEL LOW DIVING DOWN INTO THE WESTERN CONUS. HOWEVER...THE GFS
TROUGH AXIS LOOKS TO BE MUCH SHARPER...THUS MORE SOUTHERLY MOIST
FLOW OVER THE STATE. MEANWHILE...THE ECMWF SHOWS MORE SOUTHWEST OR
WESTERLY FLOW DUE TO A MORE ROUNDED TROUGH AXIS...THEREBY KEEPING
NM DRIER. THUS...THERE ARE STILL MANY UNCERTAINTIES...ESPECIALLY
REGARDING MOISTURE. LATE IN THE WEEK IS EVEN MORE UNCERTAIN...BUT
AS THE TROUGH MOVES EAST...DRIER WESTERLY FLOW SHOULD MOVE OVER
NM...WITH THE DRYLINE DIURNALLY SLOSHING BACK AND FORTH ACROSS THE
PLAINS. 34

&&

.AVIATION...
06Z TAF CYCLE
MODERATE GAP WINDS HAVE DEVELOPED WITHIN THE RIO GRANDE VALLEY
FROM TAOS SOUTH TO KSAF...KABQ...AND BELEN. PEAK GUSTS OF 25 TO
35 KNOTS THROUGH ABOUT 09Z WILL THEN TAPER OFF THRU SUNRISE.
PEAK WIND AT SUNPORT OF 34 KNOTS OCCURRED FOR A COUPLE HOURS SO
AWW IS VERY CLOSE. LOW CLOUDS ARE BEGINNING TO FORM OVER THE
PLAINS AND BULK OF GUIDANCE SHOWS WIDESPREAD BKN CIGS BTWN O15
AND 030 AFT 09Z. AREA AROUND KLVS MAY SEE IFR CIGS TO 009 FOR A
COUPLE HOURS BEFORE SUNRISE. LOW CLOUDS EXPECTED TO DISSIPATE
QUICKLY THRU 15Z AS WINDS VEER AROUND TO THE SOUTH AND SW. DEEP
MOISTURE IN PLACE OVER THE EAST NOW WITH A SPEED MAX ALOFT OVER
THE AREA WILL FAVOR SOME SEVERE STORMS WITH HAIL AND DAMAGING
WINDS FROM KROW TO KTCC BTWN 22Z AND 03Z. LEFT VCTS FOR NOW AND
ALLOW 12Z TAF ISSUANCE TO HONE IN BETTER ON TIMING OF TEMPO OR
PROB30. FAST MOVING VIRGA SHOWERS FROM THE CONT DVD TO THE CENTRAL
MOUNTAIN CHAIN WILL FAVOR VERY GUSTY WINDS AND SOME BLDU MID/LATE
DAY.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
FARMINGTON......................  91  54  87  44 /   5   0   0   5
DULCE...........................  86  41  83  34 /  20  10   5   5
CUBA............................  84  49  85  43 /  20   5   5   5
GALLUP..........................  87  48  84  37 /  10   5   0   5
EL MORRO........................  82  42  80  35 /  20   5   0   5
GRANTS..........................  86  49  84  37 /  30   5   0   5
QUEMADO.........................  84  53  83  43 /  20   5   0   5
GLENWOOD........................  92  50  91  43 /   5   5   0   5
CHAMA...........................  77  40  77  36 /  20  10   5   5
LOS ALAMOS......................  80  58  83  51 /  30  10   5   5
PECOS...........................  77  54  81  48 /  30  20  10   5
CERRO/QUESTA....................  79  48  80  41 /  20  10   5   5
RED RIVER.......................  68  42  71  39 /  30  20   5   5
ANGEL FIRE......................  71  36  75  32 /  30  20  10   5
TAOS............................  79  47  83  40 /  20  10   5   5
MORA............................  75  49  80  43 /  30  20  10   5
ESPANOLA........................  86  52  89  46 /  20  10   5   5
SANTA FE........................  81  57  85  50 /  20  10   5   5
SANTA FE AIRPORT................  85  55  87  47 /  20  10   5   5
ALBUQUERQUE FOOTHILLS...........  86  62  89  56 /  20  20   5   5
ALBUQUERQUE HEIGHTS.............  88  64  91  58 /  20  20   5   5
ALBUQUERQUE VALLEY..............  90  59  93  53 /  20  20   5   5
ALBUQUERQUE WEST MESA...........  89  62  92  56 /  20  10   5   5
LOS LUNAS.......................  90  57  93  51 /  20  20   5   5
RIO RANCHO......................  89  61  92  55 /  20  10   5   5
SOCORRO.........................  95  65  98  56 /  20  10   5   5
SANDIA PARK/CEDAR CREST.........  84  58  86  51 /  20  20   5   5
TIJERAS.........................  85  60  87  53 /  20  20   5   5
MORIARTY/ESTANCIA...............  86  50  88  43 /  20  30   5   5
CLINES CORNERS..................  82  54  86  48 /  40  30   5   5
GRAN QUIVIRA....................  84  60  89  53 /  30  20   5   5
CARRIZOZO.......................  88  63  93  57 /  20  20   5   5
RUIDOSO.........................  83  54  87  51 /  30  30  10   5
CAPULIN.........................  78  54  83  47 /  30  20  10   5
RATON...........................  85  52  88  45 /  20  20  10   5
SPRINGER........................  82  53  87  44 /  20  20  10   5
LAS VEGAS.......................  78  52  85  44 /  30  20  10   5
CLAYTON.........................  85  60  92  53 /  20  30  10  10
ROY.............................  79  56  86  49 /  20  30  10   5
CONCHAS.........................  87  63  94  55 /  20  30  10   5
SANTA ROSA......................  85  60  92  55 /  30  30  10   5
TUCUMCARI.......................  91  65  97  58 /  30  30  10  10
CLOVIS..........................  86  62  93  57 /  30  30  10  10
PORTALES........................  88  63  95  59 /  30  30  10  10
FORT SUMNER.....................  87  63  94  58 /  30  30  10   5
ROSWELL.........................  91  66 101  63 /  20  30  10  10
PICACHO.........................  87  61  93  59 /  20  20  10   5
ELK.............................  83  59  88  57 /  20  20  10   5

&&

.ABQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
RED FLAG WARNING FROM 11 AM TO 8 PM MDT SATURDAY FOR THE FOLLOWING
ZONES...NMZ101>103-105>107-109.

FIRE WEATHER WATCH FROM SATURDAY MORNING THROUGH SATURDAY EVENING
FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES...NMZ104-108.

RED FLAG WARNING FROM 1 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 8 PM MDT THIS EVENING
FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES...NMZ101.

&&

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HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBUQUERQUE NM
546 AM MDT THU JUN 12 2014

NMZ501>540-131200-
NORTHWEST PLATEAU-CHUSKA MOUNTAINS-FAR NORTHWEST HIGHLANDS-
NORTHWEST HIGHLANDS-WEST CENTRAL PLATEAU-WEST CENTRAL MOUNTAINS-
WEST CENTRAL HIGHLANDS-SOUTHWEST MOUNTAINS-
SAN FRANCISCO RIVER VALLEY-SAN JUAN MOUNTAINS-JEMEZ MOUNTAINS-
WEST SLOPES SANGRE DE CRISTO MOUNTAINS-
NORTHERN SANGRE DE CRISTO MOUNTAINS ABOVE 9500 FEET/RED RIVER-
SOUTHERN SANGRE DE CRISTO MOUNTAINS ABOVE 9500 FEET-
EAST SLOPES SANGRE DE CRISTO MOUNTAINS-UPPER RIO GRANDE VALLEY-
LOWER CHAMA RIVER VALLEY-SANTA FE METRO AREA-ALBUQUERQUE METRO AREA-
LOWER RIO GRANDE VALLEY-SANDIA/MANZANO MOUNTAINS-ESTANCIA VALLEY-
CENTRAL HIGHLANDS-SOUTH CENTRAL HIGHLANDS-UPPER TULAROSA VALLEY-
SOUTH CENTRAL MOUNTAINS-RATON RIDGE/JOHNSON MESA-
FAR NORTHEAST HIGHLANDS-NORTHEAST HIGHLANDS-UNION COUNTY-
HARDING COUNTY-EASTERN SAN MIGUEL COUNTY-GUADALUPE COUNTY-
QUAY COUNTY-CURRY COUNTY-ROOSEVELT COUNTY-DE BACA COUNTY-
CHAVES COUNTY PLAINS-EASTERN LINCOLN COUNTY-SOUTHWEST CHAVES COUNTY-
546 AM MDT THU JUN 12 2014

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF NORTH AND CENTRAL
NEW MEXICO.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT

ANY THUNDERSTORM WEST OF THE CENTRAL MOUNTAIN CHAIN THIS AFTERNOON
AND EVENING WILL PRODUCE LITTLE RAIN BUT STRONG AND GUSTY WINDS.
A FEW WIND GUSTS MAY REACH 50 MPH.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY

THE PROBABILITY FOR WIDESPREAD HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS LOW. HOWEVER...
STRONG THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE FRIDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING
ACROSS THE EASTERN PLAINS. AN ISOLATED SEVERE STORM IS ALSO
POSSIBLE WITH ONE INCH HAIL AND WIND GUSTS NEAR 60 MPH. WIDESPREAD
DRY STORMS ARE A CONCERN AS WELL FRIDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING FROM
THE CENTRAL MOUNTAINS TO THE ARIZONA BORDER. STRONG WIND GUSTS
AROUND 50 MPH ARE POSSIBLE.

WIDESPREAD CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS ARE LIKELY SATURDAY
AFTERNOON AND EVENING ACROSS NORTHERN AND CENTRAL NEW MEXICO.

WEATHER CAN CHANGE VERY RAPIDLY. ALWAYS USE THE LATEST FORECASTS...
WATCHES AND WARNINGS FOR PLANNING PURPOSES.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

CONTACT LOCAL LAW ENFORCEMENT OR THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TO
REPORT LARGE HAIL OR HIGH WINDS.

40