Red Flag Warning 18, NWS Albuquerque, NM

135 
WWUS85 KABQ 130209
RFWABQ

URGENT - FIRE WEATHER MESSAGE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBUQUERQUE NM
809 PM MDT SAT APR 12 2014

...RED FLAG WARNING IN EFFECT FROM 11 AM TO 8 PM SUNDAY ACROSS
THE WEST CENTRAL HIGHLANDS... EASTWARD ACROSS THE MIDDLE RIO
GRANDE VALLEY TO THE EAST CENTRAL PLAINS DUE TO STRONG WINDS AND
LOW HUMIDITY...

...FIRE WEATHER WATCH IN EFFECT FROM SUNDAY MORNING THROUGH
SUNDAY EVENING ACROSS THE NORTHWEST HIGHLANDS AND THE NORTHWEST
PLATEAU DUE TO STRONG WINDS AND LOW HUMIDITY...

DESPITE SOME COOLING ON SUNDAY...ABOVE AVERAGE TEMPERATURES AND DRY
CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST ACROSS PORTIONS OF NORTHERN AND CENTRAL NEW
MEXICO. GUSTY WEST TO NORTHWEST WINDS WILL DEVELOP BY MID DAY AND
STRENGTHEN DURING THE AFTERNOON AS THE ATMOSPHERE BECOMES UNSTABLE.
THUS...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO REDEVELOP
ON SUNDAY FROM THE WEST CENTRAL HIGHLANDS EASTWARD TO THE EAST
CENTRAL PLAINS. CRITICAL FIRE CONDITIONS REMAIN MORE UNCERTAIN
ACROSS NORTHWEST NEW MEXICO...DUE TO CLOUD COVER...PRECIPITATION
POTENTIAL AND MARGINAL HUMIDITIES.

NMZ106>109-131400-
/O.EXP.KABQ.FW.W.0017.000000T0000Z-140413T0200Z/
/O.CON.KABQ.FW.W.0018.140413T1700Z-140414T0200Z/
NEW MEXICO FIRE WEATHER ZONE 106
MIDDLE RIO GRANDE VALLEY/ALBUQUERQUE-SOCORRO BLM/ABZ-GLZ-
NEW MEXICO FIRE WEATHER ZONE 107
SANDIA-MANZANO AND GALLINAS MOUNTAINS/EASTERN CIBOLA NF/ABZ-
NEW MEXICO FIRE WEATHER ZONE 108
EAST CENTRAL PLAINS/WESTERN KIOWA GRASSLANDS BLM/ABZ-SNZ-
NEW MEXICO FIRE WEATHER ZONE 109
WEST CENTRAL HIGHLANDS/SOUTHWEST CIBOLA NF AND SOCORRO BLM/ABQ-
GLZ-
809 PM MDT SAT APR 12 2014

...RED FLAG WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM 11 AM TO 8 PM MDT
SUNDAY...

...RED FLAG WARNING WILL EXPIRE AT 8 PM MDT THIS EVENING...

A RED FLAG WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM 11 AM TO 8 PM MDT
SUNDAY. 

* AREA AND TIMING...THE WEST CENTRAL HIGHLANDS ACROSS THE MIDDLE
  RIO GRANDE VALLEY...SANDIA...MANZANO...AND GALLINAS MOUNTAINS
  THROUGH THE EAST CENTRAL PLAINS SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND EARLY
  EVENING.

* 20 FOOT WINDS...WEST TO NORTHWEST 20 TO 30 MPH WITH GUSTS UP TO
  40 MPH.

* RELATIVE HUMIDITY...9 TO 15 PERCENT.

* IMPACTS...ANY FIRES THAT DEVELOP WILL LIKELY SPREAD RAPIDLY. 
  OUTDOOR BURNING IS NOT RECOMMENDED.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

PLEASE ADVISE THE APPROPRIATE OFFICIALS OR FIRE CREWS IN THE
FIELD OF THIS RED FLAG WARNING.

&&

$$

NMZ104-130315-
/O.EXP.KABQ.FW.W.0017.000000T0000Z-140413T0200Z/
NEW MEXICO FIRE WEATHER ZONE 104
NORTHEAST PLAINS/EASTERN KIOWA AND RITA BLANCA GRASSLANDS/ABZ-TNZ-
809 PM MDT SAT APR 12 2014

...RED FLAG WARNING WILL EXPIRE AT 8 PM MDT THIS EVENING...

WHILE DRY CONDITIONS PERSIST...WINDS HAVE DROPPED BELOW CRITICAL
THRESHOLDS AND THE RED FLAG WARNING FOR TODAY IS NO LONGER IN
EFFECT.

$$

NMZ101-105-131400-
/O.CON.KABQ.FW.A.0024.140413T1700Z-140414T0200Z/
NEW MEXICO FIRE WEATHER ZONE 101
NORTHWEST PLATEAU/FARMINGTON BLM/ABZ-
NEW MEXICO FIRE WEATHER ZONE 105
NORTHWEST HIGHLANDS/WESTERN CIBOLA NF/ABZ-
809 PM MDT SAT APR 12 2014

...FIRE WEATHER WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM SUNDAY MORNING
THROUGH SUNDAY EVENING...

A FIRE WEATHER WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM SUNDAY MORNING
THROUGH SUNDAY EVENING. 

* AREA AND TIMING...THE NORTHWEST HIGHLANDS AND THE NORTHWEST 
  PLATEAU SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING. 

* 20 FOOT WINDS...WEST TO NORTHWEST WINDS 20 TO 30 MPH WITH 
  GUSTS TO 40 MPH. 

* RELATIVE HUMIDITY...MINIMUMS 12 TO 15 PERCENT.

* IMPACTS...ANY FIRES THAT DEVELOP WILL LIKELY SPREAD RAPIDLY. 
  OUTDOOR BURNING IS NOT RECOMMENDED.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

PLEASE ADVISE THE APPROPRIATE OFFICIALS OR FIRE CREWS IN THE
FIELD OF THIS FIRE WEATHER WATCH.

&&

$$

809 
WWUS85 KABQ 130817
RFWABQ

URGENT - FIRE WEATHER MESSAGE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBUQUERQUE NM
217 AM MDT SUN APR 13 2014

...RED FLAG WARNING IN EFFECT FROM 11 AM THIS MORNING TO 8 PM MDT
THIS EVENING ACROSS THE WEST CENTRAL HIGHLANDS... EASTWARD ACROSS
THE MIDDLE RIO GRANDE VALLEY TO THE EAST CENTRAL PLAINS AND ACROSS
THE NORTHWEST HIGHLANDS AND THE NORTHWEST PLATEAU DUE TO STRONG
WINDS AND LOW HUMIDITY...

.A COLD FRONT PLUNGING SOUTHWARD ACROSS THE EASTERN PLAINS TODAY
AS A COMPACT BUT INTENSE WEATHER SYSTEM MOVES FROM THE FOUR
CORNERS TO THE HEART OF TEXAS WILL COMBINE WITH CONTINUED LOW
HUMIDITIES AND AN UNSTABLE ATMOSPHERE TO PRODUCE RED FLAG
CONDITIONS ACROSS MUCH OF SOUTHERN AND WESTERN NEW MEXICO TODAY.
CONDITIONS WILL BE MOST SEVERE GENERALLY ALONG AND SOUTH OF
INTERSTATE 40...AND ON THE EASTERN SLOPES OF THE CHUSKA MOUNTAINS
ACROSS SAN JUAN AND WESTERN SANDOVAL COUNTIES. WIND SPEEDS WILL
DROP OFF AFTER SUNSET WITH RISING HUMIDITIES IN A COOLING AIR MASS
TO EASE FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS THIS EVENING.

NMZ101-105-132130-
/O.UPG.KABQ.FW.A.0024.140413T1700Z-140414T0200Z/
/O.EXA.KABQ.FW.W.0018.140413T1700Z-140414T0200Z/
NEW MEXICO FIRE WEATHER ZONE 101
NORTHWEST PLATEAU/FARMINGTON BLM/ABZ-
NEW MEXICO FIRE WEATHER ZONE 105
NORTHWEST HIGHLANDS/WESTERN CIBOLA NF/ABZ-
217 AM MDT SUN APR 13 2014

...RED FLAG WARNING IN EFFECT FROM 11 AM THIS MORNING TO 8 PM MDT
THIS EVENING...

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN ALBUQUERQUE HAS ISSUED A RED FLAG
WARNING...WHICH IS IN EFFECT FROM 11 AM THIS MORNING TO 8 PM MDT
THIS EVENING. THE FIRE WEATHER WATCH IS NO LONGER IN EFFECT. 

* AREA AND TIMING...THE NORTHWEST HIGHLANDS AND THE NORTHWEST 
  PLATEAU SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING. 

* 20 FOOT WINDS...WEST TO NORTHWEST WINDS 20 TO 30 MPH WITH 
  GUSTS TO 40 MPH.

* RELATIVE HUMIDITY...MINIMUMS 12 TO 15 PERCENT.

* IMPACTS...ANY FIRES THAT DEVELOP WILL LIKELY SPREAD RAPIDLY. 
  OUTDOOR BURNING IS NOT RECOMMENDED.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

PLEASE ADVISE THE APPROPRIATE OFFICIALS OR FIRE CREWS IN THE
FIELD OF THIS RED FLAG WARNING.

&&

$$

NMZ106>109-132130-
/O.CON.KABQ.FW.W.0018.140413T1700Z-140414T0200Z/
NEW MEXICO FIRE WEATHER ZONE 106
MIDDLE RIO GRANDE VALLEY/ALBUQUERQUE-SOCORRO BLM/ABZ-GLZ-
NEW MEXICO FIRE WEATHER ZONE 107
SANDIA-MANZANO AND GALLINAS MOUNTAINS/EASTERN CIBOLA NF/ABZ-
NEW MEXICO FIRE WEATHER ZONE 108
EAST CENTRAL PLAINS/WESTERN KIOWA GRASSLANDS BLM/ABZ-SNZ-
NEW MEXICO FIRE WEATHER ZONE 109
WEST CENTRAL HIGHLANDS/SOUTHWEST CIBOLA NF AND SOCORRO BLM/ABQ-
GLZ-
217 AM MDT SUN APR 13 2014

...RED FLAG WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM 11 AM THIS MORNING TO
8 PM MDT THIS EVENING...

A RED FLAG WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM 11 AM THIS MORNING TO
8 PM MDT THIS EVENING. 

A RED FLAG WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM 11 AM TO 8 PM MDT
SUNDAY.

* AREA AND TIMING...THE WEST CENTRAL HIGHLANDS ACROSS THE MIDDLE 
  RIO GRANDE VALLEY...SANDIA...MANZANO...AND GALLINAS MOUNTAINS 
  THROUGH THE EAST CENTRAL PLAINS SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND EARLY 
  EVENING. 

* 20 FOOT WINDS...WEST TO NORTHWEST 20 TO 30 MPH WITH GUSTS UP 
  TO 40 MPH. 

* RELATIVE HUMIDITY...9 TO 15 PERCENT.

* IMPACTS...ANY FIRES THAT DEVELOP WILL LIKELY SPREAD RAPIDLY. 
  OUTDOOR BURNING IS NOT RECOMMENDED.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

PLEASE ADVISE THE APPROPRIATE OFFICIALS OR FIRE CREWS IN THE
FIELD OF THIS RED FLAG WARNING.

&&

$$

SHY

279 
WWUS85 KABQ 132124
RFWABQ

URGENT - FIRE WEATHER MESSAGE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBUQUERQUE NM
324 PM MDT SUN APR 13 2014

...RED FLAG WARNING IN EFFECT THROUGH 8 PM MDT THIS EVENING ACROSS
THE WEST CENTRAL AND NORTHWEST HIGHLANDS... EASTWARD ACROSS THE
MIDDLE RIO GRANDE VALLEY TO THE EAST CENTRAL PLAINS DUE TO STRONG
WINDS AND LOW HUMIDITY...

.ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES...STRONG WESTERLY WINDS...LOW
HUMIDITIES AND AN UNSTABLE ATMOSPHERE WILL CONTINUE TO PRODUCE RED
FLAG CONDITIONS GENERALLY ALONG AND SOUTH OF INTERSTATE 40 THROUGH
THE EVENING. WIND SPEEDS WILL DROP OFF AFTER SUNSET WITH RISING
HUMIDITIES IN A COOLING AIR MASS TO EASE FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS
THIS EVENING.

NMZ101-132230-
/O.CAN.KABQ.FW.W.0018.000000T0000Z-140414T0200Z/
NEW MEXICO FIRE WEATHER ZONE 101
NORTHWEST PLATEAU/FARMINGTON BLM/ABZ-
324 PM MDT SUN APR 13 2014

...RED FLAG WARNING IS CANCELLED...

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN ALBUQUERQUE HAS CANCELLED THE RED
FLAG WARNING. 

SHOWERS AND CLOUD COVER HAVE KEPT TEMPERATURES COOLER THAN
ANTICIPATED WHICH HAS KEPT HUMIDITIES ABOVE 15 PERCENT. THOUGH
WINDS WILL REMAIN GUSTY AT TIMES DUE TO SHOWER ACTIVITY...CRITICAL
FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS ARE NO LONGER EXPECTED. THEREFORE...THE
RED FLAG WARNING FOR THE NORTHWEST PLATEAU HAS BEEN CANCELLED. 

$$

NMZ105>109-140200-
/O.CON.KABQ.FW.W.0018.000000T0000Z-140414T0200Z/
NEW MEXICO FIRE WEATHER ZONE 105
NORTHWEST HIGHLANDS/WESTERN CIBOLA NF/ABZ-
NEW MEXICO FIRE WEATHER ZONE 106
MIDDLE RIO GRANDE VALLEY/ALBUQUERQUE-SOCORRO BLM/ABZ-GLZ-
NEW MEXICO FIRE WEATHER ZONE 107
SANDIA-MANZANO AND GALLINAS MOUNTAINS/EASTERN CIBOLA NF/ABZ-
NEW MEXICO FIRE WEATHER ZONE 108
EAST CENTRAL PLAINS/WESTERN KIOWA GRASSLANDS BLM/ABZ-SNZ-
NEW MEXICO FIRE WEATHER ZONE 109
WEST CENTRAL HIGHLANDS/SOUTHWEST CIBOLA NF AND SOCORRO BLM/ABQ-
GLZ-
324 PM MDT SUN APR 13 2014

...RED FLAG WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 8 PM MDT THIS
EVENING...

A RED FLAG WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 8 PM MDT THIS EVENING.

* AREA AND TIMING...THE WEST CENTRAL AND NORTHWEST HIGHLANDS
  EASTWARD ACROSS THE MIDDLE RIO GRANDE VALLEY... AS WELL AS THE
  SANDIA...MANZANO...AND GALLINAS MOUNTAINS THROUGH THE EAST
  CENTRAL PLAINS THROUGH EARLY EVENING.

* 20 FOOT WINDS...WEST 20 TO 30 MPH WITH GUSTS UP TO 40
  MPH...BECOMING NORTHWEST THIS EVENING. LOCALLY HIGHER GUSTS
  POSSIBLE.

* RELATIVE HUMIDITY...9 TO 15 PERCENT.

* IMPACTS...ANY FIRES THAT DEVELOP WILL LIKELY SPREAD RAPIDLY. 
  OUTDOOR BURNING IS NOT RECOMMENDED.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

PLEASE ADVISE THE APPROPRIATE OFFICIALS OR FIRE CREWS IN THE
FIELD OF THIS RED FLAG WARNING.

&&

$$

34

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBUQUERQUE NM
308 PM MDT SAT APR 12 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
ACTIVE WEATHER INTO MONDAY...A BREAK TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY...THEN
POTENTIALLY MORE UNSETTLED LATE NEXT WEEK AND WEEKEND. FIRST STORM
IMPACTING THE FORECAST NOW WITH GUSTY WINDS...SHOWERS AND EVEN A
FEW THUNDERSTORMS...BUT WITH LITTLE OR NO RAINFALL. NEXT STORM WILL
HAVE A MUCH GREATER IMPACT LATE SUNDAY INTO MONDAY. STORM WILL DROP
SOUTHEAST INTO NM SUNDAY NIGHT AND DEPART MONDAY BRINGING COOLER
OR COLDER AIR...WIND...DUST...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER...RAIN...SNOW
AND BLOWING SNOW. WHILE A QUICK HITTER...PRECIPITATION WILL BE
INTENSE FOR A FEW HOURS SUNDAY NIGHT FROM THE SANGRE DE CRISTO
MOUNTAINS EAST TO THE TEXAS BORDER. WILL ISSUE A WINTER STORM
WATCH FOR THIS AREA.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
PLENTY OF ECHOES ON RADAR OVER NW NM BUT NO PRECIPITATION BEING
REPORTED AT THE SURFACE YET. HAVE SEEN QUITE A BIT OF LIGHTNING
AS WELL. THIS TREND WILL CONTINUE THIS EVENING WITH LITTLE OR NO
RAINFALL BUT SUDDEN STRONG WIND GUSTS FROM VIRGA BOMBS. JUST AS
FEW LIGHT RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS LATE TONIGHT OVER THE NORTH.

MAIN FOCUS THIS FORECAST PACKAGE HAS BEEN ON THE SECOND STORM FOR
LATER SUNDAY INTO MONDAY. MODELS CONTINUE TO BRING A POTENT SYSTEM
SOUTHEAST INTO NM LATER SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT AND MOVE IT RAPIDLY
EAST MONDAY. EXACT PLACEMENT AND AMOUNT OF PRECIPITATION THOUGH IS
STILL NOT CLEAR. THE LACK OF QPF OVER THE SANGRES AND THEIR EAST
SLOPES ON MOST MODELS IS DISCONCERTING. LOCAL HI RES MODEL MANAGES
TO EEK OUT 4 TO 6 INCHES. WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER HAS AN AREA OF
8 TO 10 INCHES OVER THE SANGRES AND ALONG THE CO BORDER TOWARD
RATON PASS. THIS SEEMS PLAUSIBLE AND WILL ISSUE A WINTER STORM
WATCH WITH THIS FORECAST PACKAGE FROM THE SANGRES EAST TO THE TX
BORDER FOR SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY MORNING. MARGINAL WARNING
SNOW AMOUNTS BUT PART OF THE REASONING FOR ISSUING IS DUE TO THE
SUDDEN CHANGE IN THE WEATHER. POTENT COLD FRONT WILL GENERATE
STRONG WINDS BEHIND IT OVER THE NORTHEAST WITH BLOWING SNOW...AND
YES..EVEN BLOWING DUST PRIOR TO...OR AT THE SAME TIME AS THE SNOW.
BLOWING DUST AND SNOW WILL LIKELY GREATLY RESTRICT THE VISIBILITY.
DURATION OF THE PRECIPITATION WILL NOT BE ALL THAT LONG...6 TO 9
HOURS PERHAPS...BUT COULD BE INTENSE FOR A FEW HOURS DURING THIS
WINDOW OF OPPORTUNITY. THIRTY TO FORTY DEGREE TEMPERATURE DROPS
WILL BE COMMON IN THE EAST AS WELL BEHIND THE FRONT. ALL IN ALL
QUITE A SHOCK FROM WHAT WE AVE BEEN ENJOYING. ONE TYPE OF WEATHER
THAT WILL NOT CHANGE SUNDAY IS CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS.
SEE THE DISCUSSION BELOW FOR DETAILS.

THE STORM WILL QUICKLY EXIT TO THE EAST MONDAY WITH PRECIPITATION
ENDING. DRY AND WARMER FOR TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY. A WEAK STORM
WILL CROSS NM WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY WITH LIGHT RAIN AND
SNOW ACROSS THE FAR NORTH POSSIBLE. GFS HAS A STRONGER STORM
COMING IN FROM THE WEST NEXT WEEKEND WHILE THE EUROPEAN ONLY HAS
A WEAK TROUGH PASSAGE. CHJ

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
VIRGA AND ISOLATED DRY THUNDERSTORMS HAVE DEVELOPED ACROSS MUCH OF
NW AND NC NM THIS AFTERNOON. THIS ACTIVITY WILL CONTINUE TO SHIFT
EASTWARD AS THE AFTN/EVE PROGRESSES. GUSTY AND ERRATIC WINDS WILL BE
THE MAIN THREAT WITH THESE SHOWERS AND STORMS. WETTING PRECIPITATION
IS NOT EXPECTED AND THE ACTIVITY SHOULD TAPER OFF AFTER SUNSET.
ELSEWHERE...MID AND HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS HAVE DELAYED THE ONSET OF RED
FLAG CONDITIONS.  HOWEVER...CLOUDS ARE THINNING...WHICH SHOULD ALLOW
TEMPS TO WARM A FEW MORE DEGREES...AND THUS INCREASE MIXING AND
WINDS THROUGH THE EVENING. THUS WILL LEAVE RED FLAG WARNING INTACT.
POOR TO FAIR HUMIDITY RECOVERIES ARE EXPECTED TONIGHT...EXCEPT
ACROSS THE NORTH CENTRAL MOUNTAINS.

HAVE UPGRADED A PORTION OF THE FIRE WEATHER WATCH FOR SUNDAY. ZONES
106-109 LOOK LIKE A GOOD BET FOR CRITICAL CONDITIONS. TEMPS WILL
REMAIN ABOVE NORMAL...THOUGH NOT AS HIGH AS TODAY...HUMIDITIES WILL
REMAIN LOW...AND CONDITIONS WILL REMAIN UNSTABLE WITH WIDESPREAD 5
HAINES. ACROSS THE NORTHWEST HIGHLANDS AND THE NORTHWEST
PLATEAU...HUMIDITIES AND INSTABILITY REMAIN TOO MARGINAL TO UPGRADE
ATTM. AFTER THE FIRST SYSTEM EXITS NM OVERNIGHT...ANOTHER SYSTEM
WILL MOVE IN FROM THE NORTH SUNDAY. CLOUD COVER AND POSSIBLY SOME
LIGHT PRECIP...IN ADDITION TO A COLD FRONT MOVING THROUGH LATE IN
THE AFTN MAY KEEP TEMPS LOWER AND HUMIDITIES HIGHER THAN CURRENTLY
EXPECTED. THESE ARE GOOD ARGUMENTS TO KEEP ZONES 101 AND 105 IN A
WATCH ATTM...THOUGH LATER SHIFTS MAY DECIDE TO CANCEL THE WATCH
ALTOGETHER.

SUNDAY NIGHT WILL BRING POTENTIAL FOR SIGNIFICANT SNOW
ACCUMULATIONS...MAINLY ACROSS THE SANGRE DE CRISTO MOUNTAINS
EASTWARD TO THE OKLAHOMA BORDER. THE AFOREMENTIONED SYSTEM WILL
SLIDE ACROSS NORTHERN NM AS AN ASSOCIATED STRONG BACK DOOR COLD
FRONT QUICKLY MOVES DOWN THE PLAINS. TEMPERATURES WILL TURN MUCH
COLDER...WITH MOST AREAS SEEING FREEZING TEMPS...AND EVEN A HARD
FREEZE ACROSS MUCH OF THE NORTHEAST. THE COMBINATION OF UPSLOPE FLOW
BEHIND THE BACK DOOR FRONT AND LIFT AHEAD OF THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH
AXIS WILL FAVOR THE SANGRE DE CRISTOS FOR SOME DECENT SNOW ACCUMS.
FOR THE FIRST TIME IN A WHILE...GOOD TO VERY GOOD HUMIDITY
RECOVERIES ARE EXPECTED FOR MUCH OF NORTHERN AND EASTERN NM.  FAIR
HUMIDITY RECOVERIES ELSEWHERE.

TEMPERATURES WILL BE 5 TO 15 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL ACROSS THE
WEST...AND BETWEEN 15 AND 25 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL ACROSS THE EAST ON
MONDAY. LESS WIND AND HIGHER HUMIDITIES ARE ALSO ON TAP...THOUGH FAR
WESTERN NM MAY SEE HUMIDITIES DROP BELOW 15 PERCENT.

NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WILL BECOME MORE WESTERLY ON TUESDAY WITH
TEMPERATURES BOUNCING BACK TOWARDS NORMAL FOR MID APRIL. HUMIDITIES
WILL ONCE AGAIN FALL BELOW 15 PERCENT ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA BUT
WINDS WILL LIKELY ONLY BE A CONCERN ACROSS THE EAST CENTRAL PLAINS.
A FEW HOURS OF CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS WILL BE POSSIBLE.

WINDS LOOK TO PICK UP AGAIN ON WEDNESDAY AHEAD OF THE NEXT UPPER
LEVEL TROUGH. MOST AREAS SHOULD FALL BELOW 15 PERCENT HUMIDITY IN
THE AFTERNOON AS TEMPS RISE JUST ABOVE NORMAL.  WIDESPREAD 6 HAINES
IS ALSO LIKELY...THUS...WIDESPREAD CRITICAL CONDITIONS MAY MAKE A
RETURN TO THE STATE WEDNESDAY AFTN AND EVENING. MODELS DO DISAGREE
ON THE STRENGTH OF THE APPROACHING SYSTEM...THUS...IF THE ECMWF IS
RIGHT...WINDS MAY BE WEAKER THAN CURRENTLY PROJECTED.

WHAT BECOMES OF THE SYSTEM LOOKS TO SCOOT ACROSS NORTHERN NM
WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY...PERHAPS PROVIDING A LITTLE
PRECIPITATION TO AREAS NEAR THE COLORADO BORDER. A BACK DOOR COLD
FRONT ALSO LOOKS TO BE ON TAP FOR THURSDAY. MEANWHILE...FROM THE
MIDDLE RIO GRANDE VALLEY WESTWARD...CONTINUED DRY CONDITIONS LOOK TO
BE ON TAP. 34

&&

.AVIATION...
18Z TAF CYCLE
UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL CROSS NM OVERNIGHT. AHEAD OF IT...MAINLY
DRY SHOWERS AND ISOLD TS WILL CONTINUE OVER NW/NC NM THIS AFTN.
ERRATIC/GUSTY WINDS WILL BE ASSOCIATED WITH VIRGA AND/OR
SHOWERS/TS. GUSTS MAY EXCEED 40KT WITH THIS CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY.
OTHERWISE...STRONG SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO INCREASE THRU
THE AFTN...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE SE HALF OF THE AREA. GUSTS BTW 30
AND 40KT WILL BE COMMON WITH THESE WINDS AS WELL. THESE GRADIENT
WINDS SHOULD LARGELY DIMINISH AFTER SUNSET...THE LOCALLY GUSTY
WINDS WILL REMAIN POSSIBLE. STRONG WEST TO NW WINDS WILL REDEVELOP
LATE SUNDAY MORNING.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
FARMINGTON......................  40  70  30  61 /  10  20  10   0
DULCE...........................  34  66  22  58 /  10  20  20   5
CUBA............................  35  67  26  54 /  20  20  20   5
GALLUP..........................  34  67  25  58 /  10  20  10   0
EL MORRO........................  30  63  25  52 /  10  10  10   0
GRANTS..........................  34  67  28  54 /  10  10  10   0
QUEMADO.........................  35  65  30  57 /   5   5  10   0
GLENWOOD........................  35  75  32  72 /   5   0  10   0
CHAMA...........................  29  61  20  50 /  20  30  30   5
LOS ALAMOS......................  40  65  33  47 /  10  20  40   5
PECOS...........................  39  63  31  42 /  10  20  40  20
CERRO/QUESTA....................  32  65  23  49 /  10  30  50  20
RED RIVER.......................  28  53  19  37 /  20  60  70  20
ANGEL FIRE......................  30  58  21  39 /  10  60  70  30
TAOS............................  32  66  24  48 /  10  30  30  10
MORA............................  38  63  28  40 /  10  40  60  30
ESPANOLA........................  37  72  29  55 /   5  20  30   5
SANTA FE........................  39  67  29  50 /  10  20  30  20
SANTA FE AIRPORT................  37  70  30  54 /  10  10  20   5
ALBUQUERQUE FOOTHILLS...........  47  73  35  57 /  10  10  20   5
ALBUQUERQUE HEIGHTS.............  48  74  39  60 /   5   5  20   5
ALBUQUERQUE VALLEY..............  43  76  36  62 /   5   5  10   5
ALBUQUERQUE WEST MESA...........  46  76  38  62 /   5   5  20   5
LOS LUNAS.......................  44  78  35  63 /   5   5  10   5
RIO RANCHO......................  47  76  36  61 /   5  10  20   5
SOCORRO.........................  48  79  41  64 /   5   5  10   0
SANDIA PARK/CEDAR CREST.........  43  70  33  53 /  10  10  20  10
TIJERAS.........................  43  71  34  53 /  10  10  20  10
MORIARTY/ESTANCIA...............  38  69  24  51 /   5  10  20  20
CLINES CORNERS..................  40  68  25  47 /  10  10  40  20
GRAN QUIVIRA....................  43  70  29  51 /  10   5  20   5
CARRIZOZO.......................  45  73  36  55 /   5   5  10   5
RUIDOSO.........................  43  67  31  51 /   5   5  20  10
CAPULIN.........................  38  54  20  40 /  20  60  80  20
RATON...........................  38  64  23  46 /  10  40  70  20
SPRINGER........................  39  64  23  46 /  10  30  60  20
LAS VEGAS.......................  41  65  22  45 /  10  20  40  20
CLAYTON.........................  49  57  22  46 /  10  30  80  20
ROY.............................  44  63  23  43 /  10  20  60  20
CONCHAS.........................  47  70  27  49 /  10  10  40  20
SANTA ROSA......................  48  74  29  50 /   5   5  30  20
TUCUMCARI.......................  49  74  28  51 /  10  10  40  20
CLOVIS..........................  51  74  32  48 /   5   5  30  20
PORTALES........................  52  77  33  49 /   5   5  20  10
FORT SUMNER.....................  51  79  35  52 /   5   5  30  10
ROSWELL.........................  52  85  42  57 /   5   5  20   5
PICACHO.........................  50  78  37  54 /   5   5  20  20
ELK.............................  47  72  36  51 /   5   5  20  20

&&

.ABQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
RED FLAG WARNING UNTIL 8 PM MDT THIS EVENING FOR THE FOLLOWING
ZONES...NMZ104-106>109.

RED FLAG WARNING FROM 11 AM TO 8 PM MDT SUNDAY FOR THE FOLLOWING
ZONES...NMZ106>109.

WINTER STORM WATCH FROM SUNDAY EVENING THROUGH MONDAY MORNING FOR
THE FOLLOWING ZONES...NMZ512>515-527-530.

FIRE WEATHER WATCH FROM SUNDAY MORNING THROUGH SUNDAY EVENING FOR
THE FOLLOWING ZONES...NMZ101-105.

WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 10 PM MDT THIS EVENING FOR THE FOLLOWING
ZONES...NMZ526.

&&

40

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBUQUERQUE NM
604 AM MDT SAT APR 12 2014

NMZ501>540-131215-
NORTHWEST PLATEAU-CHUSKA MOUNTAINS-FAR NORTHWEST HIGHLANDS-
NORTHWEST HIGHLANDS-WEST CENTRAL PLATEAU-WEST CENTRAL MOUNTAINS-
WEST CENTRAL HIGHLANDS-SOUTHWEST MOUNTAINS-
SAN FRANCISCO RIVER VALLEY-SAN JUAN MOUNTAINS-JEMEZ MOUNTAINS-
WEST SLOPES SANGRE DE CRISTO MOUNTAINS-
NORTHERN SANGRE DE CRISTO MOUNTAINS ABOVE 9500 FEET/RED RIVER-
SOUTHERN SANGRE DE CRISTO MOUNTAINS ABOVE 9500 FEET-
EAST SLOPES SANGRE DE CRISTO MOUNTAINS-UPPER RIO GRANDE VALLEY-
LOWER CHAMA RIVER VALLEY-SANTA FE METRO AREA-ALBUQUERQUE METRO AREA-
LOWER RIO GRANDE VALLEY-SANDIA/MANZANO MOUNTAINS-ESTANCIA VALLEY-
CENTRAL HIGHLANDS-SOUTH CENTRAL HIGHLANDS-UPPER TULAROSA VALLEY-
SOUTH CENTRAL MOUNTAINS-RATON RIDGE/JOHNSON MESA-
FAR NORTHEAST HIGHLANDS-NORTHEAST HIGHLANDS-UNION COUNTY-
HARDING COUNTY-EASTERN SAN MIGUEL COUNTY-GUADALUPE COUNTY-
QUAY COUNTY-CURRY COUNTY-ROOSEVELT COUNTY-DE BACA COUNTY-
CHAVES COUNTY PLAINS-EASTERN LINCOLN COUNTY-SOUTHWEST CHAVES COUNTY-
604 AM MDT SAT APR 12 2014

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF NORTH AND CENTRAL
NEW MEXICO.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT

A RED FLAG WARNING IS IN EFFECT TODAY FROM 11 AM TO 8 PM MDT
FOR THE EASTERN PLAINS AND MUCH OF CENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST NEW
MEXICO WHERE LOW HUMIDITIES COMBINED WITH STRONG WINDS WILL
CREATE CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS.

IN ADDITION BRIEF INSTANCES OF STRONG AND GUSTY WINDS CAN BE
EXPECTED FROM STRONGER...BUT VERY SPOTTY...HIGH BASED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING ACROSS ROUGHLY THE
WESTERN TWO THIRDS OF THE STATE.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY

SIGNIFICANT SNOW ACCUMULATIONS ARE LOOKING INCREASINGLY LIKELY
SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY MORNING ACROSS THE NORTHERN MOUNTAINS AND
NORTHEAST HIGHLANDS AND PLAINS...ESPECIALLY THE SANGRE DE
CRISTOS...PORTIONS OF THE NORTHEAST HIGHLANDS AND FAR NORTHEAST
PLAINS. A STRONG BACK DOOR COLD FRONT WILL USHER IN A MUCH COLDER
AND MOIST NORTH TO NORTHEAST FLOW INTO THIS AREA AS AN APPROACHING
UPPER LEVEL TROUGH GENERATES ENOUGH LIFT TO HELP PRODUCE THE
SNOWFALL.

A FEW THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS ROUGHLY THE NORTH HALF OF THE STATE
SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING MAY AGAIN PRODUCE BRIEF STRONG GUSTY
WIND EPISODES.

ALSO A FIRE WEATHER WATCH HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND
EARLY EVENING ACROSS WEST...CENTRAL AND EAST CENTRAL NEW MEXICO
DUE TO THE COMBINATION OF BREEZY TO WINDY CONDITIONS AND LOW
HUMIDITIES.

CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS MAY REAPPEAR AGAIN BETWEEN
TUESDAY AND THURSDAY OF NEXT WEEK...WITH WEDNESDAY AT THIS TIME
LOOKING TO BE THE MOST FAVORED DAY.

WEATHER CAN CHANGE VERY RAPIDLY. ALWAYS USE THE LATEST FORECASTS...
WATCHES AND WARNINGS FOR PLANNING PURPOSES.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT ANTICIPATED.

43