Flash Flood Warning 70, NWS Albuquerque, NM

148 
WGUS75 KABQ 220005
FFSABQ

FLASH FLOOD STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBUQUERQUE NM
605 PM MDT SUN SEP 21 2014

NMC011-019-037-041-220030-
/O.CON.KABQ.FF.W.0070.000000T0000Z-140922T0030Z/
/00000.0.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/
DE BACA NM-GUADALUPE NM-QUAY NM-ROOSEVELT NM-
605 PM MDT SUN SEP 21 2014

...A FLASH FLOOD WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 630 PM MDT FOR
EXTREME NORTHWESTERN ROOSEVELT...SOUTHWESTERN QUAY...EAST CENTRAL
GUADALUPE AND NORTHEASTERN DE BACA COUNTIES...

AT 600 PM MDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR CONTINUED TO 
INDICATE LIGHT TO MODERATE RAIN NEAR HOUSE...OR ABOUT 22 MILES 
NORTHEAST OF FORT SUMNER. THE STORM PRODUCING RAIN WAS NEARLY 
STATIONARY. UP TO 4 INCHES OF RAIN HAS FALLEN OVER A WIDESPREAD AREA 
AROUND HOUSE. FLASH FLOODING MAY BE OCCURRING ALONG HIGHWAYS 252 AND 
312 AND ALONG TRUCHAS CREEK.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

DO NOT ATTEMPT TO DRIVE THROUGH FLOODED LOW WATER CROSSINGS. MANY
FLASH FLOOD DEATHS OCCUR IN AUTOMOBILES.

&&

LAT...LON 3481 10429 3472 10377 3452 10376 3469 10441

$$


34

295 
WGUS75 KABQ 220036
FFSABQ

FLASH FLOOD STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBUQUERQUE NM
636 PM MDT SUN SEP 21 2014

NMC011-019-037-041-220046-
/O.EXP.KABQ.FF.W.0070.000000T0000Z-140922T0030Z/
/00000.0.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/
DE BACA NM-GUADALUPE NM-QUAY NM-ROOSEVELT NM-
636 PM MDT SUN SEP 21 2014

...THE FLASH FLOOD WARNING HAS EXPIRED FOR EXTREME NORTHWESTERN
ROOSEVELT...SOUTHWESTERN QUAY...EAST CENTRAL GUADALUPE AND
NORTHEASTERN DE BACA COUNTIES...

NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED THE RAINFALL WAS
ENDING ACROSS THE WARNED AREA...AND THE FLASH FLOOD THREAT WAS 
DIMINISHING. SOME MINOR FLOODING MAY CONTINUE AROUND HOUSE...BUT THE 
THREAT FOR FLASH FLOODING IS ENDING. THUS...THE FLASH FLOOD WARNING 
HAS BEEN ALLOWED TO EXPIRE.

LAT...LON 3481 10429 3472 10377 3452 10376 3469 10441

$$

34

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBUQUERQUE NM
350 PM MDT SUN SEP 21 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
SHOWERS AND STORMS SOME WITH HEAVY RAIN...WILL PERSIST THROUGH
MONDAY. AN UPPER LEVEL STORM SYSTEM TO OUR WEST WILL  SLOWLY TRACK
THROUGH THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN ROCKIES MONDAY. MONSOON
MOISTURE...ALONG WITH A SUSTAINED EASTERLY UPSLOPE FLOW... WILL
PERSIST OVER NEW MEXICO...WILL COMBINE TO PRODUCE POTENTIAL FOR
HEAVY RAINFALL AND FLASH FLOODING. LOCATIONS WHICH HAVE RECEIVED
HEAVY RAINFALL RECENTLY WILL BE MOST SUSCEPTIBLE TO FLASH FLOODING
ALONG WITH BURN SCARS. A DRIER WEATHER PATTERN WILL DEVELOP BY
TUESDAY. CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND STORMS MAY INCREASE TOWARDS THE END
OF THE WORK WEEK AND OVER THE COMING WEEKEND AS A WEAK LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM DRIFTS TOWARD EASTERN NEW MEXICO AND ANOTHER STRONG UPPER LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVES IN FROM THE WEST.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
WEATHER PATTERN TO REMAIN ACTIVE THROUGH MONDAY BEFORE CHANCES FOR
SHOWERS AND STORMS TAPER OFF. ADDED REMAINING PORTIONS OF SOCORRO
AND LINCOLN COUNTIES TO THE FLASH FLOOD WATCH. OVERALL DID NOT MAKE
A LOT OR SIGNIFICANT CHANGES TO THE GRIDS...BUT DID INCREASE POPS
FOR MONDAY ESPECIALLY CENTRAL MT CHAIN EASTWARD.

DRYING MAY NOT PUSH IN AS AGREESIVELY AS THE GFS SO HUNG ONTO LOW
POPS IN THE NW A BIT LONGER. ALSO GFS INDICATES MORE DRYING IN THE
LOW LEVELS BY TUESDAY NIGHT SO MAY NOT HAVE LOW TEMPERATURES LOW
ENOUGH IF THIS MODEL IS THE ONE THAT WORKS OUT.

CHANCES FOR CONVECTION MAY INCREASE AGAIN AFTER WEDNESDAY. MODELS
INDICATE THE CURRENT UPPER LOW WILL MOVE THROUGH THE ROCKIES THEN
SLOW DOWN AND EVEN RETROGRADE AROUND THE BUILDING UPPER HIGH
CIRCULATION...WHICH MIGHT INCREASE CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION FROM
THE CENTRAL MT CHAIN EASTWARD. THIS POSSIBILITY COVERED IN THE GRIDS
CURRENTLY.

ANOTHER VERY DEEP TROUGH STILL FORECAST TO MOVE INTO THE WEST COAST
THIS WEEKEND. THIS COULD INCREASE CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION AGAIN
OVER MUCH OF THE REGION.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
ACTIVE DAY CONTINUES ACROSS THE STATE. MODERATE TO HEAVY RAIN WILL
PERSIST ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE EAST CENTRAL PLAINS THROUGH THE REST
OF THE AFTERNOON...AND MAY EXPAND NORTHWARD THROUGH THE LATE AFTN
AND EVE. WIDESPREAD WETTING RAINS ARE EXPECTED. MEANWHILE... LIFT
AHEAD OF THE UPPER LOW MOVING NE OVER NEVADA WILL CONTINUE TO
SUPPORT SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH THE
EVENING ACROSS WESTERN AND PERHAPS CENTRAL AREAS. AS THE TROUGH AXIS
COMES ACROSS THE STATE OVERNIGHT AND MONDAY MORNING...DRY AIR WILL
MOVE INTO NW NM...WHILE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS PREVAIL AHEAD OF
THE TROUGH AXIS ACROSS CENTRAL AND EASTERN NM. THUS...A PRETTY WET
PERIOD ON TAP FOR THE NEXT 24-30 HOURS...ESPECIALLY FOR THE
SOUTHEAST HALF OF THE AREA. HIGH HUMIDITIES WILL BE THE RULE...WHILE
TEMPERATURES REMAIN NEAR OR BELOW NORMAL THROUGH MONDAY. VENTILATION
WILL ALSO DECREASE MONDAY...WITH POOR TO FAIR VENTILATION PREVAILING
ACROSS MUCH OF THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN AREAS.

THE DRYING AND WARMING TREND WILL BEGIN TUESDAY AS FLOW ALOFT
BECOMES NWLY DUE TO AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE BUILDING OVER ARIZONA.
DRIER AIR WILL CONTINUE TO FILTER INTO THE STATE LIMITING STORM
POTENTIAL. A FEW STORMS MAY DEVELOP ACROSS THE NORTHEAST OR ACROSS
ZONE 109...BUT COVERAGE WILL BE FAR LESS. VENTILATION WILL CHANGE
LITTLE FROM MONDAY.

THE UPPER RIDGE WILL CONTINUE TO BUILD OVER AZ AND WESTERN NM
WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY. RESIDUAL MOISTURE MAY SPARK A FEW
STORMS...MAINLY ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN AND PERHAPS PORTIONS OF
THE EASTERN PLAINS. MEANWHILE...MODELS ARE NOW FORECASTING THE THE
AFOREMENTIONED UPPER LOW TO SLIDE OVER AND AROUND THE HIGH AND
ACTUALLY RETROGRADE BACK TOWARD NM BY FRIDAY MORNING. NOT TOTALLY
SOLD ON THAT PART OF THE SOLUTION...YET. OTHERWISE...WILL STILL BE
POCKETS OF POOR TO FAIR VENTILATION WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY DUE TO
LIGHT TRANSPORT WINDS.

MODELS CONTINUE TO SUGGEST A DEEP TROUGH OR CLOSED LOW MOVING ACROSS
THE WESTERN CONUS FRIDAY THROUGH THE WEEKEND. THERE ARE STILL TIMING
AND STRENGTH INCONSISTENCIES...BUT ANOTHER ROUND OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS MAY BE ON TAP.

34

&&

.AVIATION...
18Z TAF CYCLE
MVFR/IFR CIGS WILL CONTINUE ACROSS MUCH OF EC/SE NM THIS AFTN DUE
TO ABUNDANT MOISTURE ADVECTING INTO THE AREA. SHRA AND ISOLD TSRA
WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE EAST...MOST WIDESPREAD SHRA ACROSS THE
SE. LOCALIZED LIFR CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE IN THE HEAVIEST
RAIN. SHRA/TSRA WILL EXPAND IN COVERAGE ACROSS THE WEST THIS AFTN
GENERALLY AFT 20Z...AS UPPER LOW OVER NEVADA SHIFTS NEWD. THE
TROUGH AXIS WILL SHIFT OVER NM OVERNIGHT AND EARLY MONDAY MORNING.
AHEAD OF IT...MAINLY ACROSS CENTRAL AND EASTERN NM...STORMS WILL
CONTINUE OR REDEVELOP. LOW CLOUDS AND PERHAPS SOME REDUCED VSBYS
ARE ALSO POSSIBLE WHERE ITS NOT RAINING AFTER SUNSET ACROSS THE
EAST. IN SHORT...A VERY ACTIVE NEXT 24-30 HOURS ARE ON TAP.

34

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
FARMINGTON......................  86  60  80  54 /  30  50  30   5
DULCE...........................  83  54  75  45 /  50  60  60  10
CUBA............................  80  56  74  48 /  30  40  50  10
GALLUP..........................  84  50  78  45 /  40  40  20   5
EL MORRO........................  76  51  74  47 /  50  60  30  10
GRANTS..........................  80  51  77  49 /  40  50  40  20
QUEMADO.........................  78  51  75  51 /  50  50  40  20
GLENWOOD........................  82  54  80  53 /  40  40  40  20
CHAMA...........................  77  48  69  42 /  50  60  60  20
LOS ALAMOS......................  77  57  71  54 /  40  50  60  20
PECOS...........................  71  56  68  52 /  50  60  70  20
CERRO/QUESTA....................  76  51  71  46 /  40  50  60  20
RED RIVER.......................  71  45  63  42 /  50  60  60  20
ANGEL FIRE......................  71  40  67  39 /  50  60  60  20
TAOS............................  78  53  71  47 /  30  40  50  20
MORA............................  70  50  67  48 /  50  70  70  20
ESPANOLA........................  82  54  74  52 /  30  40  50  20
SANTA FE........................  76  53  70  52 /  30  60  60  20
SANTA FE AIRPORT................  79  55  73  54 /  30  50  60  20
ALBUQUERQUE FOOTHILLS...........  79  62  74  58 /  30  50  50  20
ALBUQUERQUE HEIGHTS.............  81  63  78  61 /  30  50  50  20
ALBUQUERQUE VALLEY..............  83  64  79  58 /  30  50  50  20
ALBUQUERQUE WEST MESA...........  81  63  78  59 /  30  50  50  20
LOS LUNAS.......................  83  61  79  58 /  30  50  50  20
RIO RANCHO......................  82  63  78  60 /  30  40  50  20
SOCORRO.........................  82  65  81  61 /  40  60  60  20
SANDIA PARK/CEDAR CREST.........  78  57  71  55 /  40  50  60  20
TIJERAS.........................  78  59  73  56 /  40  50  60  20
MORIARTY/ESTANCIA...............  78  52  73  48 /  50  60  70  20
CLINES CORNERS..................  72  56  69  53 /  60  70  70  20
GRAN QUIVIRA....................  73  58  72  55 /  50  60  70  20
CARRIZOZO.......................  76  64  74  58 /  50  60  60  30
RUIDOSO.........................  69  59  68  53 /  70  70  70  30
CAPULIN.........................  72  57  71  52 /  40  50  60  20
RATON...........................  76  55  75  51 /  40  50  60  10
SPRINGER........................  75  53  72  50 /  40  60  60  10
LAS VEGAS.......................  72  51  69  50 /  50  60  70  20
CLAYTON.........................  75  56  73  56 /  30  40  50  20
ROY.............................  74  57  72  55 /  50  60  70  20
CONCHAS.........................  78  60  72  60 /  40  60  70  20
SANTA ROSA......................  77  61  73  61 /  60  60  60  20
TUCUMCARI.......................  82  62  75  62 /  40  50  60  20
CLOVIS..........................  80  63  73  59 /  60  60  60  30
PORTALES........................  80  63  74  61 /  60  60  60  30
FORT SUMNER.....................  79  64  74  60 /  60  60  60  20
ROSWELL.........................  81  65  77  62 /  70  60  60  30
PICACHO.........................  74  62  72  57 /  70  70  70  30
ELK.............................  70  60  70  55 /  70  70  80  30

&&

.ABQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH MONDAY EVENING FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES...
NMZ508-509-520-523>526-533>540.

&&

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBUQUERQUE NM
559 AM MDT SUN SEP 21 2014

NMZ501>540-221200-
NORTHWEST PLATEAU-CHUSKA MOUNTAINS-FAR NORTHWEST HIGHLANDS-
NORTHWEST HIGHLANDS-WEST CENTRAL PLATEAU-WEST CENTRAL MOUNTAINS-
WEST CENTRAL HIGHLANDS-SOUTHWEST MOUNTAINS-
SAN FRANCISCO RIVER VALLEY-SAN JUAN MOUNTAINS-JEMEZ MOUNTAINS-
WEST SLOPES SANGRE DE CRISTO MOUNTAINS-
NORTHERN SANGRE DE CRISTO MOUNTAINS ABOVE 9500 FEET/RED RIVER-
SOUTHERN SANGRE DE CRISTO MOUNTAINS ABOVE 9500 FEET-
EAST SLOPES SANGRE DE CRISTO MOUNTAINS-UPPER RIO GRANDE VALLEY-
LOWER CHAMA RIVER VALLEY-SANTA FE METRO AREA-ALBUQUERQUE METRO AREA-
LOWER RIO GRANDE VALLEY-SANDIA/MANZANO MOUNTAINS-ESTANCIA VALLEY-
CENTRAL HIGHLANDS-SOUTH CENTRAL HIGHLANDS-UPPER TULAROSA VALLEY-
SOUTH CENTRAL MOUNTAINS-RATON RIDGE/JOHNSON MESA-
FAR NORTHEAST HIGHLANDS-NORTHEAST HIGHLANDS-UNION COUNTY-
HARDING COUNTY-EASTERN SAN MIGUEL COUNTY-GUADALUPE COUNTY-
QUAY COUNTY-CURRY COUNTY-ROOSEVELT COUNTY-DE BACA COUNTY-
CHAVES COUNTY PLAINS-EASTERN LINCOLN COUNTY-SOUTHWEST CHAVES COUNTY-
559 AM MDT SUN SEP 21 2014

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF NORTH AND CENTRAL
NEW MEXICO.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT
PATCHY DENSE FOG WILL BE ENCOUNTERED NEAR AND EAST OF THE CENTRAL
MOUNTAIN CHAIN EARLY THIS MORNING. IMPACTED AREAS INCLUDE BUT ARE
NOT LIMITED TO LAS VEGAS...MORIARTY....EDGEWOOD...CLINES CORNERS...
TUCUMCARI...CLOVIS...ROSWELL AND RUIDOSO. SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS
THUNDERSTORMS ARE ALSO EXPECTED TODAY THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT. STORM
MOTIONS WILL BE SLOW AND RAINFALL COULD BECOME HEAVY. THIS MAY
LEAD TO LOCALIZED AREAS OF FLASH FLOODING... ESPECIALLY FOR AREAS
THAT HAVE RECENTLY RECEIVED HEAVY RAIN AS WELL AS OVER AND NEAR
RECENT AND OLDER BURN SCARS. ISOLATED LOCATIONS MAY RECEIVE UP TO
2 INCHES OF RAINFALL. A FEW STORMS MAY ALSO PRODUCE SMALL HAIL AND
WIND GUSTS TO 50 MPH.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY

SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED MONDAY...FOCUSED
FROM SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST NEW MEXICO AS WELL AS AREAS EAST OF
THE CENTRAL MOUNTAIN CHAIN. RAINFALL COULD BECOME HEAVY AT TIMES
WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR AT LEAST LOCALIZED FLASH FLOODING. A FEW STORMS
MAY ALSO PRODUCE SMALL HAIL AND WIND GUSTS TO 50 MPH AREAWIDE.
FEWER STORMS AND A DRIER PATTERN WILL TAKE HOLD BY TUESDAY INTO
WEDNESDAY.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTERS ARE ENCOURAGED TO REPORT RAINFALL AMOUNTS...HAIL AND ANY
FLOODING THROUGH THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBUQUERQUE WEB SITE
AT WEATHER.GOV/ABQ OR BY CALLING 1.888.386.7637.

41

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBUQUERQUE NM
140 PM MDT SUN SEP 21 2014

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0130 PM     FLASH FLOOD      3 NE RUIDOSO            33.36N 105.64W
09/21/2014                   LINCOLN            NM   EMERGENCY MNGR

            FLOODING ON STATE ROAD 246 AT MILE MARKERS 4...27-29
            AND 55-56. PAVEMENT DAMAGED AT MILE MARKER 29.

&&

EVENT NUMBER ABQ1401156

CHJ