Flash Flood Warning 60, NWS Albuquerque, NM

127 
WGUS75 KABQ 271003
FFSABQ

FLASH FLOOD STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBUQUERQUE NM
403 AM MDT WED AUG 27 2014

NMC053-271100-
/O.CON.KABQ.FF.W.0060.000000T0000Z-140827T1100Z/
/00000.0.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/
SOCORRO NM-
403 AM MDT WED AUG 27 2014

...A FLASH FLOOD WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 500 AM MDT FOR
CENTRAL SOCORRO COUNTY...

AT 354 AM MDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED 
HEAVY RAIN HAS ENDED OVER THE WARNED AREA. TOTAL ESTIMATED RAINFALL
AMOUNTS AVERAGES NEAR 3 INCHES OVER A LARGE AREA OF THE HIGH TERRAIN
NORTH OF HIGHWAY 380. COUNTY ROADS LEADING NORTH TOWARD THE PINOS
MOUNTAINS MAY EXPERIENCE WASH OUTS AROUND LOW WATER CROSSINGS AND
CULVERTS. STRONG FLOWS MAY EVENTUALLY MAKE THEIR WAY TOWARD THE
HIGHWAY 380 CORRIDOR BETWEEN SAN ANTONIO AND BINGHAM.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

BOTH LOCALIZED AND DISTANT HEAVY RAINFALL WILL CREATE DANGEROUS FLOWS
IN ARROYOS AND OVER LOW WATER CROSSINGS.

&&

LAT...LON 3395 10685 3410 10677 3403 10640 3386 10645
      3386 10667 3389 10684

$$
GUYER

041 
WGUS75 KABQ 271057
FFSABQ

FLASH FLOOD STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBUQUERQUE NM
457 AM MDT WED AUG 27 2014

NMC053-271107-
/O.EXP.KABQ.FF.W.0060.000000T0000Z-140827T1100Z/
/00000.0.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/
SOCORRO NM-
457 AM MDT WED AUG 27 2014

...THE FLASH FLOOD WARNING WILL EXPIRE AT 500 AM MDT FOR CENTRAL
SOCORRO COUNTY...

NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED THE RAINFALL WAS
ENDING ACROSS THE WARNED AREA...AND THE FLASH FLOOD THREAT WAS
DIMINISHING. SOME MINOR FLOODING MAY CONTINUE...BUT THE THREAT FOR
FLASH FLOODING IS ENDING. THUS...THE FLASH FLOOD WARNING HAS BEEN
ALLOWED TO EXPIRE.

LAT...LON 3395 10685 3410 10677 3403 10640 3386 10645
      3386 10667 3389 10684

$$

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBUQUERQUE NM
1152 PM MDT TUE AUG 26 2014

.AVIATION...
06Z TAF CYCLE
CLOSED UPPER LOW NEAR NV/UT LINE. SW FLOW ALOFT AHEAD OF THIS
FEATURE CONTINUES TO BRING DEEP MONSOON MOISTURE PLUME UP THROUGH
WRN AND CENTRAL NM. SCT-NMRS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL
CONTINUE OVERNIGHT AS UPPER LOW MOVES SLOWLY E INTO CNTL UT. LCL
MVFR CIGS LIKELY ALONG WITH MT TOPS OCNLY OBSCD. MAIN UNCERTAINTY
LATE TONIGHT/WEDNESDAY MORNING IS TIMING OF CONVECTION WEDNESDAY.
A STRONG SFC BOUNDARY IN PLACE NEAR A KRTN TO KSRR LINE. EXPECT
CONVECTION EAST OF CNTL MTNS WILL FIRE DURING THE LATE MORNING
INTO EARLY AFTERNOON...IMPACTING KLVS AND KTCC. KROW WILL GET INTO
THE ACT DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON. MAIN FOCUS FOR ACTIVITY WILL BE
FROM KROW AND CHAVES COUNTY NEWD TO NEAR KCAO. ELSEWHERE...ISOLATED
ACTIVITY EXPECTED CENTRAL MTNS WEST DURING THE AFTERNOON.

33

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...313 PM MDT TUE AUG 26 2014...
.SYNOPSIS...
THE WEATHER PATTERN HAS TURNED INTO A WET ONE OVER NEW MEXICO AS A
ROBUST SURGE OF SUBTROPICAL MOISTURE HAS BEEN DRAWN INTO THE
STATE. NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE TO IMPACT
A LARGE MAJORITY OF NORTHERN AND CENTRAL NEW MEXICO THROUGH
TONIGHT WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL AND FLASH
FLOODING. BY WEDNESDAY A DEEPENING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL MOVE
OUT OF UTAH AND INTO COLORADO. AS DRIER AIR ARRIVES FROM THE
WEST...THIS WILL STEER THE BEST CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION INTO
SOUTH CENTRAL AND EASTERN SECTIONS OF NEW MEXICO BY WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOON. TEMPERATURES WILL RISE A FEW DEGREES ON WEDNESDAY...BUT
WILL STILL FALL SHORT OF AVERAGE IN MUCH OF CENTRAL TO WESTERN NEW
MEXICO. A FRONT WILL THEN ENTER NORTHEASTERN NEW MEXICO ON
THURSDAY WHERE ONLY SLIGHTLY COOLER TEMPERATURES WILL BE FOUND
WITH LINGERING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. THE WEATHER WILL THEN
TEND TO BE DRIER AS THE LONG HOLIDAY WEEKEND APPROACHES.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
A WIDESPREAD AND HIGH-EFFICIENCY RAINFALL EVENT IS CURRENTLY
UNDERWAY OVER NEW MEXICO. HURRICANE MARIE CONTINUES TO SPIN OVER
THE EASTERN PACIFIC...POSING NO DIRECT IMPACT TO NM...BUT THE
DRIVING FEATURES FOR NM ARE THE EXPANSIVE HIGH OVER THE MS RIVER
VALLEY AND THE DEEPENING UPPER LOW OVER NV. THE END RESULT IS
DEEP SUBTROPICAL MOISTURE STREAMING NORTHWARD INTO NM.

THE CROP OF STORMS HAS BEEN FAIRLY WIDESPREAD ALREADY...ALTHOUGH
SOME OF THE AREAS ALONG/NEAR THE CONTINENTAL DIVIDE HAVE BEEN SLOW
TO DESTABILIZE AFTER THE PERSISTENT STRATIFORM PRECIPITATION THAT
LASTED THROUGHOUT THE EARLY MORNING HOURS THERE. EARLY MORNING
NAM/WRF MODEL RUNS CONTINUED TO INDICATE A MID TROPOSPHERIC
PERTURBATION LIFTING OUT OF THE GILA AND TOWARD THE NORTHERN
MOUNTAINS OF NM BY THIS EVENING. THIS FEATURE CAN BE SEEN ON
VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY...LIFTING NORTH NEAR THE CATRON/CIBOLA
COUNTY LINE...ALTHOUGH IT IS NOT CURRENTLY INDUCING MUCH
CONVECTION. BELIEVE THIS COULD STILL BE A PLAYER FOR THE EVENING
WITH POTENTIAL FOR SOME MORE DESTABILIZATION OVER THE NEXT FEW
HOURS. THIS WILL KEEP THE NORTH CENTRAL TO NORTHEASTERN ZONES
FAVORED FOR PRECIPITATION. MUCH OF THE ENTIRE CENTRAL MOUNTAIN
CHAIN HAS RECEIVED SOME STORMS...AND THUS IT IS PRIMED FOR
FLOODING. WILL KEEP THE WATCH INTACT THROUGH 6 AM.

BY DAWN THE UPPER LOW WILL BE IN UT...INCHING EASTWARD TOWARD CO.
THIS WILL BEGIN INDUCING A SLOW DRYING TREND FROM WEST TO EAST
OVER NM THROUGHOUT THE DAY...ULTIMATELY SHOVING THE HIGHEST
PROBABILITIES FOR PRECIPITATION TO THE SOUTH CENTRAL MOUNTAINS AND
THE LOWLANDS/PLAINS EAST OF THE CENTRAL MOUNTAIN CHAIN. HAVE STILL
KEPT ISOLATED POPS IN FAR WESTERN ZONES...AND EVEN SOME SCATTERED
POPS IN THE NORTHWEST TO NORTH CENTRAL ZONES WHERE PROXIMITY TO
UPPER LOW WILL BRING BETTER FORCING ALOFT. TEMPERATURES WILL
REBOUND A FEW DEGREES WITH LESS CLOUD COVER ON WEDNESDAY...BUT
STILL SHY OF AVERAGE IN ALL BUT THE FAR EASTERN ZONES.

THE UPPER LOW WILL BEGIN TO EVOLVE AND OPEN INTO A WAVE OVER
EASTERN PARTS OF CO/NM BY THURSDAY WITH SLIGHTLY COOLER AIR AND
SOME TRAILING MOISTURE/ENERGY FILLING IN OVER NORTHEAST NM.
ELSEWHERE TEMPERATURES WILL BE FAIRLY COMPARABLE WITH LOWER
CHANCES FOR A STRAY SHOWER OR STORM.

WESTERLY WINDS ALOFT TURN MUCH LIGHTER INTO FRIDAY AS A NEW DOME
OF HIGH PRESSURE BEGINS TO SWELL OVER THE BAJA. THE DRIER AIRMASS
IN THE WESTERN HALF OF THE STATE WILL INHIBIT STORM
DEVELOPMENT...BUT A MODEST SOUTHEASTERLY RETURN FLOW WILL KEEP AT
LEAST ISOLATED STORMS POSSIBLE ALONG AND JUST EAST OF THE CENTRAL
MOUNTAIN CHAIN FRIDAY. HIGH PRESSURE THEN TRIES TO BECOME BETTER
ESTABLISHED OVER SOUTHERN PARTS OF NM WHILE TRYING TO BATTLE SOME
WESTERLY FLOW TO THE NORTH.

52

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
HYBRID MONSOON SURGE ONGOING ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA. THIS
MOISTURE SURGE AND SUBSEQUENT WETTING RAIN EVENT WILL CONTINUE
THROUGH TONIGHT BEFORE BECOMING LESS PRONOUNCED ON WEDNESDAY.
WETTING RAIN CHANCES WILL REMAIN ACROSS THE SOUTH/EAST WEDNESDAY
BEFORE COVERAGE REALLY LOWERS ON FRIDAY. CONTINUED DRIER FOR THE
WEEKEND WITH SOME ENHANCED BREEZES ON SUNDAY.

DURING THE NEXT 12 TO 16 HOURS WIDESPREAD WETTING RAIN WILL IMPACT
THE FORECAST AREA. SEVERAL BANDS OF RAIN WILL OCCUR AN PROVIDE
LONGER DURATIONS OF RAINFALL. HUMIDITY VALUES WILL REMAIN ON THE
HIGH SIDE THROUGH TONIGHT.

RESIDUAL RAINFALL IS EXPECTED WED MORNING AS THE PACIFIC TROUGH OR
LOW SLOWLY PUSHES EASTWARD. TWO AREAS SHOULD BE FAVORED ON WEDNESDAY
AND THEY INCLUDE NORTHWEST/NORTH CENTRAL AREAS DUE TO THE UPPER LOW
POSITION AND SOUTHERN AREAS DUE TO RESIDUAL MONSOONAL MOISTURE. THE
REST OF THE FORECAST AREA WILL BE IMPACTED BY A MID LEVEL DRY SLOT
AND SOME STABILITY THUS KEEPING RAIN CHANCES TO A MINIMUM.
ADDITIONAL WETTING RAINFALL WILL AFFECT THE TWO PREVIOUSLY MENTIONED
AREAS. SOME BREEZES WILL BE POSSIBLE...ESPECIALLY IF CLOUD COVER
WERE TO BREAK DUE TO MODERATE WIND FLOW ALOFT. HIGH TEMPERATURES
WILL BE A FEW DEGREES BELOW NORMAL AND HUMIDITY VALUES SHOULD BE
NEAR SEASONABLE WITH A LOWERING TREND PRETTY MUCH AREAWIDE.

MODELS ARE STILL IN CONSENSUS WITH THE UPPER LOW PUSHING EASTWARD
OVER COLORADO ON THURSDAY. WRAP AROUND PRECIPITATION AND BACK DOOR
INFLUENCES SHOULD IMPACT NORTH CENTRAL/NORTHEAST AREAS WHILE DRIER
AND MORE STABLE AIR OVERTAKE THE REST OF THE AREA. MODELS STILL SHOW
A MODERATE NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT SO SOME NORTHWEST BREEZES SHOULD BE
FELT ALONG A LINE FROM FARMINGTON TO CLINES CORNERS. LOWER DEWPOINTS
WILL FILL IN AS THE NORTHWEST BREEZES TAKE HOLD. MODELS SEEM A
LITTLE QUICK ON THEIR DEPICTION OF MUCH LOWER DEWPOINTS SO TRIED TO
GO WITH SOME HIGHER GUIDANCE NUMBERS. EITHER WAY...HUMIDITY VALUES
WILL LOWER SOME MORE ACROSS MOST AREAS.

MODELS CONTINUE TO PAINT SOME LIGHT SHOWER ACTIVITY ACROSS THE
NORTHERN END OF THE SANGRES ON FRIDAY. OTHERWISE CONTINUED DRYING
ACROSS THE ENTIRE AREA. HUMIDITY VALUES SHOULD LOWER A BIT MORE
ACROSS THE WEST AND SHOW LESS CHANGE ELSEWHERE. HIGH TEMPERATURES
WILL BE NEAR NORMAL. HAINES VALUES SHOULD CREEP UP A LITTLE BUT
STILL BE FAIRLY SEASONABLE.

MODELS YESTERDAY SHOWED THE UPPER RIDGE BUILDING OVER THE SOUTHWEST
AREA DURING THE WEEKEND BUT THEY NOW SEEM TO BE PROGRESSING ANOTHER
PACIFIC TROUGH INTO THE WESTERN US QUICKER. ESPECIALLY FOR IMPACTS ON
SUNDAY. THUS...RIDGING SHOULD IMPACT NORTHERN/CENTRAL NEW MEXICO ON
SATURDAY AND COULD POSSIBLY GIVE WAY TO ANOTHER TROUGH ON SUNDAY.
THIS SCENARIO WOULD CREATE A MINI BREAK DOWN OF THE UPPER RIDGE THUS
SOME WIDESPREAD BREEZINESS. PRETTY CLASSIC FOR THIS TIME OF THE YEAR
AS THIS PATTERN HAPPENS FAIRLY OFTEN LATE AUGUST/EARLY SEPTEMBER.
THIS PATTERN TYPICALLY STARTS THE GRADUAL CHANGE IN SEASON THAT
OCCURS IN SEPTEMBER. UNSURE ABOUT THE EARLIER HALF OF NEXT WEEK BUT
SUSPECT THAT DRY CONDITIONS WOULD REMAIN ACROSS THE WEST AND MOST
LIKELY CENTRAL AREAS. PERHAPS SOME RETURN FLOW MOISTURE FROM THE
GULF ACROSS THE EAST AND PSEUDO DRYLINE. DURING THE SEASONAL
TRANSITION PHASE...LONGER TERM MODELS BECOME A LITTLE LESS RELIABLE
SO WILL BE INTERESTING TO WATCH MODEL TRENDS THE NEXT COUPLE OF
WEEKS.

50

&&

.ABQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FLASH FLOOD WATCH UNTIL 6 AM MDT WEDNESDAY FOR THE FOLLOWING
ZONES...NMZ501>527.

&&

SHY

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBUQUERQUE NM
549 AM MDT TUE AUG 26 2014

NMZ501>540-271200-
NORTHWEST PLATEAU-CHUSKA MOUNTAINS-FAR NORTHWEST HIGHLANDS-
NORTHWEST HIGHLANDS-WEST CENTRAL PLATEAU-WEST CENTRAL MOUNTAINS-
WEST CENTRAL HIGHLANDS-SOUTHWEST MOUNTAINS-
SAN FRANCISCO RIVER VALLEY-SAN JUAN MOUNTAINS-JEMEZ MOUNTAINS-
WEST SLOPES SANGRE DE CRISTO MOUNTAINS-
NORTHERN SANGRE DE CRISTO MOUNTAINS ABOVE 9500 FEET/RED RIVER-
SOUTHERN SANGRE DE CRISTO MOUNTAINS ABOVE 9500 FEET-
EAST SLOPES SANGRE DE CRISTO MOUNTAINS-UPPER RIO GRANDE VALLEY-
LOWER CHAMA RIVER VALLEY-SANTA FE METRO AREA-ALBUQUERQUE METRO AREA-
LOWER RIO GRANDE VALLEY-SANDIA/MANZANO MOUNTAINS-ESTANCIA VALLEY-
CENTRAL HIGHLANDS-SOUTH CENTRAL HIGHLANDS-UPPER TULAROSA VALLEY-
SOUTH CENTRAL MOUNTAINS-RATON RIDGE/JOHNSON MESA-
FAR NORTHEAST HIGHLANDS-NORTHEAST HIGHLANDS-UNION COUNTY-
HARDING COUNTY-EASTERN SAN MIGUEL COUNTY-GUADALUPE COUNTY-
QUAY COUNTY-CURRY COUNTY-ROOSEVELT COUNTY-DE BACA COUNTY-
CHAVES COUNTY PLAINS-EASTERN LINCOLN COUNTY-SOUTHWEST CHAVES COUNTY-
549 AM MDT TUE AUG 26 2014

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF NORTH AND CENTRAL
NEW MEXICO.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT

SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TODAY
AND TONIGHT WITH SOME PRODUCING HEAVY RAIN AT RATES OVER 1 INCH
PER HOUR. THIS MAY LEAD TO LOCALIZED AREAS OF FLASH FLOODING...
ESPECIALLY IN AND BELOW BURN SCARS.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY

SOME DRIER AIR WILL BEGIN TO PUSH INTO THE AREA FROM THE WEST ON
WEDNESDAY...BUT THE CHANCE FOR LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL AND FLASH
FLOODING MAY PERSIST SOUTH OF INTERSTATE 40 AND EAST OF INTERSTATE
25 THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTERS ARE ENCOURAGED TO REPORT RAINFALL AMOUNTS AND ANY FLOODING
THROUGH THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBUQUERQUE WEB SITE AT
WEATHER.GOV/ABQ OR BY CALLING 1.888.386.7637.

44