Flash Flood Warning 54, NWS Albuquerque, NM

349 
WGUS75 KABQ 102347
FFSABQ

FLASH FLOOD STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBUQUERQUE NM
547 PM MDT SUN AUG 10 2014

NMC043-110045-
/O.CON.KABQ.FF.W.0054.000000T0000Z-140811T0045Z/
/00000.0.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/
SANDOVAL NM-
547 PM MDT SUN AUG 10 2014

...A FLASH FLOOD WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 645 PM MDT FOR
CENTRAL SANDOVAL COUNTY...

AT 542 PM MDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR CONTINUED TO
INDICATE A THUNDERSTORM PRODUCING VERY HEAVY RAIN 9 MILES EAST OF
JEMEZ PUEBLO...OR ABOUT 19 MILES NORTH OF BERNALILLO. THE STORM 
PRODUCING VERY HEAVY RAIN WAS MOVING SOUTH. THE HEAVIEST RAIN HAS
MOVED OUT OF THE WARNING AREA...BUT CONSIDERABLE RUNOFF WILL 
CONTINUE THROUGH 645 PM MDT. 

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

WATER IN ARROYOS MAY TRAVEL MANY MILES AND TAKE HOURS TO REACH YOUR
LOCATION FROM UPSTREAM RAIN AREAS. REMAIN ALERT TO FLOODED ROAD
CROSSINGS EVEN HOURS LATER.

&&

LAT...LON 3584 10669 3580 10652 3554 10651 3560 10678

$$

40

132 
WGUS75 KABQ 110043
FFSABQ

FLASH FLOOD STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBUQUERQUE NM
643 PM MDT SUN AUG 10 2014

NMC043-110053-
/O.EXP.KABQ.FF.W.0054.000000T0000Z-140811T0045Z/
/00000.0.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/
SANDOVAL NM-
643 PM MDT SUN AUG 10 2014

...THE FLASH FLOOD WARNING WILL EXPIRE AT 645 PM MDT FOR CENTRAL
SANDOVAL COUNTY...

NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED THE RAINFALL HAS 
MOSTLY ENDED ACROSS THE WARNED AREA...AND THE FLASH FLOOD THREAT HAS 
ENDED. SOME MINOR FLOODING MAY CONTINUE...BUT THE THREAT FOR FLASH 
FLOODING IS ENDING. THUS...THE FLASH FLOOD WARNING HAS BEEN ALLOWED 
TO EXPIRE.

LAT...LON 3584 10669 3580 10652 3554 10651 3560 10678

$$

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBUQUERQUE NM
330 PM MDT SUN AUG 10 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
WITH MODEST MONSOON MOISTURE IN PLACE...DAILY ROUNDS OF SCATTERED
TO ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH
TUESDAY. AN UPTICK IN THUNDERSTORM COVERAGE IS EXPECTED WEDNESDAY
AND THURSDAY AS A SUBTROPICAL WAVE TRAVELS AROUND THE PERIPHERY OF
WESTERN THEN NORTHERN NEW MEXICO. HIGH TEMPERATURES THROUGH
THURSDAY WILL VARY FROM NEAR NORMAL TO SEVERAL DEGREES BELOW
NORMAL. DRIER AIR SHOULD ARRIVE FROM THE WEST WITH WARMER HIGH
TEMPERATURES AT THE END OF THE WEEK.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
THE 500 MB HIGH PRESSURE CENTER APPEARS ILL DEFINED AND ROUGHLY IN
THE VICINITY OF THE FOUR CORNERS THIS AFTERNOON. AS EXPECTED...LOW
LEVEL MOISTURE HAS PUSHED INTO THE AREA FROM THE EAST AND
SOUTHEAST. THERE HAVE BEEN SOME LAST MINUTE MODEL DISAGREEMENTS ON
WHERE THE BEST CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE THIS EVENING. THE
OVERALL CONSENSUS SUGGEST A CLUSTER OF CELLS MAY SHIFT
SOUTHEASTWARD OFF THE SANGRE DE CRISTOS AND ONTO THE NE HIGHLANDS
AND PLAINS.

THE UPPER HIGH SHOULD GRADUALLY SHIFT EASTWARD OVER THE TX
PANHANDLE THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK AS A BROAD UPPER LEVEL
LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVES OVER THE PACIFIC NW COAST. THIS WILL
ALLOW A MONSOON MOISTURE PLUME TO SURGE NORTHWARD ALONG THE NM/AZ
BORDER WITH AN ATTENDANT SUBTROPICAL WAVE. AFTER PASSING NORTHWARD
THROUGH AZ ON WEDNESDAY...THE WAVE SHOULD TRACK EAST NORTHEASTWARD
ACROSS CO ON THURSDAY. THIS SHOULD ALLOW THE MONSOON MOISTURE
PLUME TO SPREAD FROM CENTRAL AND WESTERN AREAS TO INCLUDE CENTRAL
AND WESTERN PARTS OF THE PLAINS.

MODELS SHOW THE BROAD UPPER LOW TRACKING SLOWLY EASTWARD OVER THE
NORTHERN ROCKIES NEAR THE US/CANADIAN BORDER THROUGH THE END OF
THE WEEK. THIS SHOULD STEER SOME DRIER AIR INTO NM FROM THE WEST
WITH A DOWNTICK IN THUNDERSTORM COVERAGE AND WARMER HIGH TEMPERATURES
BEGINNING FRIDAY. AN EXCEPTION MAY BE THE NORTHEAST WHERE MODELS
SUGGEST A MOIST BACK DOOR COLD FRONT MAY ENTER IN THE WAKE OF THE
EXITING SUBTROPICAL WAVE.

44

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
POORLY DEFINED BACKDOOR FRONT GRADUALLY FILTERING INTO NORTHEAST NEW
MEXICO EARLY THIS MORNING. THE EASTERLY FLOW BEHIND THE FRONT WILL
SEND LOW LEVEL MOISTURE SURGING WEST INTO CENTRAL AND ESPECIALLY
WESTERN NEW MEXICO TODAY. AN ACTIVE THUNDERSTORM DAY IS EXPECTED
THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING AS THE MOISTURE COMBINES WITH DAYTIME
HEATING AND AFFECTS OF THE FRONT. WEAK WINDS ALOFT WILL RESULT IN
SLOW MOVING STORMS...ADDING TO HEAVY RAINFALL POTENTIAL...ESPECIALLY
OVER EASTERN AND NORTHERN PORTIONS OF THE STATE WHERE PRECIPITABLE
WATER IS GREATEST.

AN ACTIVE WORK WEEK IS IN STORE WITH PLENTIFUL LOW LEVEL MOISTURE IN
PLACE THROUGH AT LEAST THURSDAY. WARMING TEMPERATURES ALOFT OVER THE
EASTERN PLAINS...HOWEVER...WILL LIKELY LIMIT ACTIVITY THERE TUESDAY
AND WEDNESDAY AFTERNOONS. MODELS REMAIN IN VERY GOOD AGREEMENT FOR
WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY...INDICATING THAT A RATHER POTENT WARM
CORE/SUB-TROPICAL LOW WILL HELP LIFT A DEEP MONSOON MOISTURE PLUME
NORTHWARD THROUGH EASTERN ARIZONA AND WESTERN NM BETWEEN THE UPPER
HIGH AND A STRONG CLOSED LOW COMING ASHORE OVER SOUTHWEST OREGON.
MODELS CONTINUE TO INDICATE THAT WIDESPREAD AND PERHAPS HEAVY
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL RESULT WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY
AFTERNOONS OVER WESTERN AND CENTRAL PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA.
STORM STEERING FLOW WILL INCREASE SOMEWHAT OVER WESTERN NEW MEXICO
WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY...HELPING IN PART TO AT LEAST MOVE THE HEAVY
RAINERS FROM SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST WEDNESDAY AND FROM WEST TO EAST
THURSDAY.

DRIER AIR ALOFT BEHIND THE DEPARTING WARM CORE UPPER LOW PUSHES INTO
NORTHWEST AND NORTH-CENTRAL NM FRIDAY AND SATURDAY. GFS AND ECMWF
LIMIT THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY AS A RESULT OVER THE NORTHWEST THIRD OR
SO OF THE STATE BOTH DAYS. ECMWF INDICATING THAT PERHAPS THE DEEP
MONSOON MOISTURE PLUME BEGINS TO LIFT BACK NORTH AND NORTHEASTWARD
INTO THE REGION SUNDAY.

GUYER

&&

.AVIATION...
18Z TAF CYCLE
MAIN CHALLENGE WITH AVIATION FORECAST WAS THE BREADTH OF CONVECTIVE
COVERAGE OF EASTERN NEW MEXICO THIS EVENING. CURRENTLY AN AREA OF BKN
CLOUD COVER OVER SE NEW MEXICO WITH -SHRA/TSRA IS EXPANDING WESTWARD
TOWARD KROW. FARTHER WEST CLOUDS ARE BEGINNING TO DEVELOP OVER THE
HIGH TERRAIN WITH DAYTIME HEATING. STORM MOTIONS WILL BE GENERALLY
SLOW EAST TO WEST...HOWEVER ACTIVITY WILL BUILD UPSTREAM TOWARD THE
EAST OVER THE SANGRES AND NE PLAINS. THIS ACTIVITY WILL SPAWN A
LARGE SCALE OUTFLOW BOUNDARY/COLD FRONT THAT MOVES SOUTH AND WEST
EARLY THIS EVENING ACROSS THE PLAINS...WITH GAP WINDS LIKELY IN
THE RIO GRANDE VALLEY. THE BOUNDARY WILL FOCUS THE BEST CHANCES
FOR THUNDER NEAR KSAF...KABQ..AND KAEG. ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO
TAPER OFF OUT WEST AFT 03Z. THE EAST WILL BE TRICKY SINCE GUIDANCE
MEMBERS ARE CONFLICTING ON POTENTIAL FOR WIDESPREAD RAIN/STORMS
UNTIL AS LATE AS 09Z FROM KTCC TO KROW.

GUYER

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
FARMINGTON......................  62  90  62  90 /  20  20  30  20
DULCE...........................  50  82  51  83 /  30  30  30  30
CUBA............................  53  80  53  80 /  40  40  30  30
GALLUP..........................  56  85  55  84 /  30  30  30  30
EL MORRO........................  53  78  53  76 /  30  30  30  30
GRANTS..........................  56  80  55  79 /  30  30  30  30
QUEMADO.........................  56  79  54  78 /  40  40  30  40
GLENWOOD........................  57  85  56  83 /  40  40  40  40
CHAMA...........................  44  76  45  77 /  40  50  50  40
LOS ALAMOS......................  57  77  55  78 /  50  40  40  30
PECOS...........................  52  73  52  76 /  50  60  50  20
CERRO/QUESTA....................  50  77  50  78 /  50  50  30  30
RED RIVER.......................  45  66  45  67 /  50  70  50  40
ANGEL FIRE......................  44  72  46  73 /  50  70  50  40
TAOS............................  50  77  51  79 /  50  40  30  20
MORA............................  50  73  50  76 /  50  70  50  30
ESPANOLA........................  57  83  57  83 /  40  30  30  10
SANTA FE........................  56  76  56  78 /  40  50  40  20
SANTA FE AIRPORT................  57  79  57  81 /  40  30  40  20
ALBUQUERQUE FOOTHILLS...........  62  82  60  83 /  40  30  30  20
ALBUQUERQUE HEIGHTS.............  64  84  63  85 /  40  30  30  10
ALBUQUERQUE VALLEY..............  62  86  62  87 /  40  30  30  10
ALBUQUERQUE WEST MESA...........  63  88  62  88 /  40  30  30  10
LOS LUNAS.......................  62  85  61  85 /  40  30  30  10
RIO RANCHO......................  63  88  62  88 /  40  30  30  10
SOCORRO.........................  63  88  63  88 /  40  30  40  10
SANDIA PARK/CEDAR CREST.........  57  82  57  83 /  40  40  30  30
TIJERAS.........................  59  80  58  81 /  40  40  30  20
MORIARTY/ESTANCIA...............  54  77  55  78 /  50  50  50  20
CLINES CORNERS..................  55  76  56  79 /  40  40  30  20
GRAN QUIVIRA....................  58  78  57  79 /  30  30  30  20
CARRIZOZO.......................  62  80  60  80 /  30  30  30  20
RUIDOSO.........................  55  73  54  73 /  30  40  40  30
CAPULIN.........................  55  74  55  79 /  50  50  20  20
RATON...........................  53  79  55  83 /  50  40  30  20
SPRINGER........................  54  79  55  83 /  50  40  20  20
LAS VEGAS.......................  53  75  54  78 /  50  50  30  20
CLAYTON.........................  61  82  60  87 /  40  30  20  10
ROY.............................  59  78  59  81 /  50  50  20  10
CONCHAS.........................  65  86  66  89 /  50  30  20  10
SANTA ROSA......................  63  83  63  85 /  40  30  20  10
TUCUMCARI.......................  64  89  64  91 /  40  30  20  10
CLOVIS..........................  63  84  63  85 /  30  30  20  10
PORTALES........................  64  85  63  86 /  30  30  20  10
FORT SUMNER.....................  64  85  65  86 /  40  30  20  10
ROSWELL.........................  68  88  68  88 /  30  30  30  10
PICACHO.........................  63  79  62  79 /  30  30  30  20
ELK.............................  59  72  58  73 /  40  40  50  20

&&

.ABQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

44

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBUQUERQUE NM
600 AM MDT SUN AUG 10 2014

NMZ501>540-111200-
NORTHWEST PLATEAU-CHUSKA MOUNTAINS-FAR NORTHWEST HIGHLANDS-
NORTHWEST HIGHLANDS-WEST CENTRAL PLATEAU-WEST CENTRAL MOUNTAINS-
WEST CENTRAL HIGHLANDS-SOUTHWEST MOUNTAINS-
SAN FRANCISCO RIVER VALLEY-SAN JUAN MOUNTAINS-JEMEZ MOUNTAINS-
WEST SLOPES SANGRE DE CRISTO MOUNTAINS-
NORTHERN SANGRE DE CRISTO MOUNTAINS ABOVE 9500 FEET/RED RIVER-
SOUTHERN SANGRE DE CRISTO MOUNTAINS ABOVE 9500 FEET-
EAST SLOPES SANGRE DE CRISTO MOUNTAINS-UPPER RIO GRANDE VALLEY-
LOWER CHAMA RIVER VALLEY-SANTA FE METRO AREA-ALBUQUERQUE METRO AREA-
LOWER RIO GRANDE VALLEY-SANDIA/MANZANO MOUNTAINS-ESTANCIA VALLEY-
CENTRAL HIGHLANDS-SOUTH CENTRAL HIGHLANDS-UPPER TULAROSA VALLEY-
SOUTH CENTRAL MOUNTAINS-RATON RIDGE/JOHNSON MESA-
FAR NORTHEAST HIGHLANDS-NORTHEAST HIGHLANDS-UNION COUNTY-
HARDING COUNTY-EASTERN SAN MIGUEL COUNTY-GUADALUPE COUNTY-
QUAY COUNTY-CURRY COUNTY-ROOSEVELT COUNTY-DE BACA COUNTY-
CHAVES COUNTY PLAINS-EASTERN LINCOLN COUNTY-SOUTHWEST CHAVES COUNTY-
600 AM MDT SUN AUG 10 2014

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF NORTH AND CENTRAL
NEW MEXICO.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT

ANOTHER ROUND OF SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS CAN BE EXPECTED TODAY
THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT. STORMS WILL BE MOST NUMEROUS OVER AND JUST
EAST OF THE SANGRE DE CRISTO MOUNTAINS...AS WELL AS THE HIGHER
TERRAIN OF WEST CENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST NEW MEXICO. THUNDERSTORMS
WILL BE LEAST LIKELY IN THE FOUR CORNERS REGION.

STORM MOTIONS WILL BE VERY SLOW. AS A RESULT...RAINFALL COULD
BECOME LOCALLY HEAVY. THIS MAY LEAD TO LOCALIZED AREAS OF FLASH
FLOODING... ESPECIALLY OVER AND NEAR RECENT AND OLDER BURN SCARS.
ISOLATED LOCATIONS...INCLUDING THE LITTLE BEAR BURN SCAR IN
LINCOLN COUNTY AND WHITEWATER BALDY BURN SCAR IN CATRON
COUNTY...COULD RECEIVE UP TO AN INCH OF RAINFALL. A FEW STORMS MAY
ALSO PRODUCE SMALL HAIL AND WIND GUSTS TO 50 MPH.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY

THUNDERSTORM COVERAGE WILL RAMP UP DURING THE MONDAY THROUGH
WEDNESDAY PERIOD...WITH SPECIAL EMPHASIS ACROSS WESTERN AREAS
WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT TO INCLUDE THE FOUR
CORNERS REGION. STORM MOTIONS WILL BE SLOW AND RAINFALL COULD BECOME
HEAVY AT TIMES ESPECIALLY DURING THE TUESDAY TO WEDNESDAY NIGHT
PERIOD. THIS MAY LEAD TO LOCALIZED AREAS OF FLASH FLOODING...
ESPECIALLY OVER AND NEAR RECENT AND OLDER BURN SCARS. ISOLATED
LOCATIONS MAY RECEIVE UP TO 2 INCHES OF RAINFALL. A FEW STORMS MAY
ALSO PRODUCE SMALL HAIL AND WIND GUSTS TO 50 MPH. A MARKED
DECREASE IN STORM COVERAGE IS THEN EXPECTED FRIDAY AND INTO THE
WEEKEND.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTERS ARE ENCOURAGED TO REPORT RAINFALL AMOUNTS AND ANY FLOODING
THROUGH THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBUQUERQUE WEB SITE AT
WEATHER.GOV/ABQ OR BY CALLING 1.888.386.7637.

41