Flash Flood Warning 52, NWS Albuquerque, NM

276 
WGUS75 KABQ 042150
FFSABQ

FLASH FLOOD STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBUQUERQUE NM
350 PM MDT MON AUG 4 2014

NMC028-043-042330-
/O.CON.KABQ.FF.W.0052.000000T0000Z-140804T2330Z/
/00000.0.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/
LOS ALAMOS NM-SANDOVAL NM-
350 PM MDT MON AUG 4 2014

...A FLASH FLOOD WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 530 PM MDT FOR EAST
CENTRAL SANDOVAL AND SOUTHERN LOS ALAMOS COUNTIES...

AT 348 PM MDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A
NEW THUNDERSTORM PRODUCING VERY HEAVY RAIN.  THIS STORM WAS
LOCATED 7 MILES WEST OF FRIJOLES...OR 9 MILES SOUTHWEST OF LOS
ALAMOS...MOVING EAST SOUTHEAST AT 10 MPH. ALSO...A 5 TO 6 FOOT RISE
OF WATER WAS ALREADY OBSERVED IN FRIJOLES CREEK AT THE BANDELIER 
NATIONAL MONUMENT VISITORS CENTER AT 3 PM. WITH THE NEW STORM THAT
DEVELOPED...THE WATER LEVEL SHOULD RISE EVEN HIGHER IN FRIJOLES
CREEK. I  

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

ADDITIONAL RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF A QUARTER TO 1 INCH ARE POSSIBLE IN
THE WARNED AREA...INCLUDING FRIJOSES CANYON AND PAJARITO CANYON.

DO NOT ATTEMPT TO DRIVE THROUGH FLOODED LOW WATER CROSSINGS. MANY
FLASH FLOOD DEATHS OCCUR IN AUTOMOBILES.

&&

LAT...LON 3585 10624 3583 10623 3583 10619 3581 10618
      3576 10622 3576 10624 3574 10624 3564 10630
      3579 10651 3590 10639

$$

844 
WGUS75 KABQ 042329
FFSABQ

FLASH FLOOD STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBUQUERQUE NM
529 PM MDT MON AUG 4 2014

NMC028-043-042338-
/O.EXP.KABQ.FF.W.0052.000000T0000Z-140804T2330Z/
/00000.0.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/
LOS ALAMOS NM-SANDOVAL NM-
529 PM MDT MON AUG 4 2014

...THE FLASH FLOOD WARNING WILL EXPIRE AT 530 PM MDT FOR EAST CENTRAL
SANDOVAL AND SOUTHERN LOS ALAMOS COUNTIES...

NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED THE RAINFALL ENDED
ACROSS THE WARNED AREA...AND THE FLASH FLOOD THREAT WAS DIMINISHING.
ALTHOUGH THE FLASH FLOOD WARNING HAS BEEN ALLOWED TO EXPIRE...  
SOME MINOR FLOODING IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE...AND AN ARROYO AND
SMALL STREAM FLOOD ADVISORY IS IN EFFECT UNTIL 815 PM. 

LAT...LON 3585 10624 3583 10623 3583 10619 3581 10618
      3576 10622 3576 10624 3574 10624 3564 10630
      3579 10651 3590 10639

$$

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBUQUERQUE NM
1113 AM MDT MON AUG 4 2014

.AVIATION...
18Z TAF CYCLE
WIDESPREAD CONVECTION THROUGH 05/03Z WESTERN AND CENTRAL NM AND
SPREADING INTO NE NM...WITH CELLS SLOWLY DRIFTING TO THE NORTHEAST.
OCCASIONAL MT OBSCURATIONS IN LOCAL MVFR CIGS/VSBYS IN TSRA SFC
WND GUSTS 35KT. CONVECTION EXPECTED TO TAPER OFF WITH LINGERING
-SHRA THEREAFTER.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...339 AM MDT MON AUG 4 2014...
.SYNOPSIS...
ONE MORE ACTIVE DAY FOR LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL IS ON TAP TODAY
BEFORE A WARMING AND DRYING TREND DEVELOPS OVER THE REGION. A
WELL DEVELOPED UPPER LEVEL WAVE APPROACHING FROM THE WEST WILL
INTERACT WITH ABUNDANT MOISTURE OVER THE AREA TO PRODUCE NUMEROUS
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. A FLASH FLOOD WATCH IS IN EFFECT FROM 2
PM TO 10 PM TODAY. DRY AIR WILL MOVE INTO WESTERN NEW MEXICO
TUESDAY WHILE A FEW STORMS STILL FIRE UP OVER CENTRAL AND EASTERN
NEW MEXICO. WEDNESDAY THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK WILL BE
WARMER AND POTENTIALLY MUCH DRIER...HOWEVER MODEL GUIDANCE IS
STILL CONFLICTING ON THE OVERALL PATTERN. THIS MAY GIVE A BREAK
FROM THE FLOODING EXPERIENCED OVER THE AREA THE PAST COUPLE WEEKS.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
THE LATEST SUITE OF SATELLITE IMAGERY EARLY THIS MORNING SHOWS A
WELL DEFINED UPPER LEVEL WAVE APPROACHING FROM THE WEST. DEEP
MOISTURE RICH SOUTHERLY FLOW IS IN PLACE OVER CENTRAL AND WESTERN
NM WITH GENERALLY LIGHT STEERING FLOW. A DRY SLOT ON THE BACK
EDGE OF THE UPPER WAVE IS EXPECTED TO ENHANCE CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY
AS THE WAVE SHIFTS EAST. PWAT VALUES ARE PROGGED BY THE NAM TO
INCREASE THRU THE DAY AND THIS ALONG WITH THE DRY INTRUSION
APPROACHING FROM THE WEST IS TRADITIONALLY A VERY GOOD PATTERN FOR
HEAVY RAIN. THE 06Z NAM BUFKIT HEAVY PRECIP TOOL INDICATES THAT
THE MEAN BOUNDARY LAYER FLOW WILL ACT UPSTREAM OF SOUTH TO NORTH
DEVELOPING LINES OF SHOWERS AND STORMS. THIS WILL FAVOR TRAINING
CELLS OVER AREAS THAT ARE SATURATED...SO WILL ISSUE A FLASH FLOOD
WATCH TODAY FROM THE AZ BORDER EAST TO THE CENTRAL MT CHAIN.

SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL TAPER OFF ACROSS THE AREA LATE TONIGHT AS
MID AND UPPER LEVEL DRYING SHIFTS EAST FROM AZ. TUESDAY WILL BE A
WARMER DAY FOR WESTERN NM WITH SURFACE DEWPOINTS PROGGED TO FALL
INTO THE 40S. RECYCLING AND WESTERLY STEERING FLOW WILL FAVOR A
FEW STORMS ALONG AND EAST OF THE CENTRAL MT CHAIN. WEDNESDAY WILL
TREND SEVERAL DEGREES WARMER FOR THE ENTIRE AREA AS THE ATMOSPHERIC
COLUMN DRIES CONSIDERABLY.

DIFFERENCES ARISE THURSDAY WITH THE GFS AND ECMWF. THE GFS SLIDES
THE UPPER HIGH EASTWARD AND ALLOWS FOR ANOTHER 700-500MB MOIST LAYER
TO SLIDE BACK NORTH INTO WESTERN NM THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE
WEEK. THE ECMWF DEVELOPS THE HIGH OVERHEAD WITH A DRY INTRUSION
OVER MUCH OF WESTERN NM. SURFACE DEWPOINT VALUES WITH THE ECMWF
FALL INTO THE 30S FOR THE WEST...SO BIG DIFFERENCES IN OVERNIGHT
LOWS WILL RESULT DEPENDING ON GUIDANCE. AT THIS TIME...FAVORED THE
FARTHER WEST POSITION OF THE UPPER HIGH AND KEPT THE WEST MAINLY
DRY.

GUYER

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
SHOWERS AND STORMS SHOULD BE SCATTERED TO AT TIMES NUMEROUS TODAY
INTO TONIGHT WITH LOCALLY HEAVY...EVEN TORRENTIAL...RAINFALL BETWEEN
THE CENTRAL MTN CHAIN AND THE AZ STATE LINE. MUCH OF THIS AREA HAS
BEEN PLACED IN A FLASH FLOOD WATCH FOR THIS AFTN AND EVE AS THE MAIN
MONSOON PLUME IS IN THE PROCESS OF SHIFTING OVER WEST AND CENTRAL
NM. NO CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS DUE TO BOTH WINDS AND RH
EXPECTED THROUGH AT LEAST THE NEXT 7 DAYS ACROSS THE FCST AREA.
HOWEVER DEWPOINTS WILL BE LOWERING SOME AFTER TODAY...MAINLY NW
THIRD STARTING LATE TONIGHT OR TUE AND MORE AREAS THAN NOT WED
BEFORE STARTING TO CREEP BACK UP ACROSS SOUTH OR SW AND PERHAPS W
CENTRAL AREAS BY THU OR FRI AS SOME MONSOONAL MOISTURE TRIES TO MAKE
INROADS AGAIN FOR A LITTLE WHILE THERE. AFTN TEMPS SHOULD TREND BACK
BACK TOWARD AVERAGE AND EVEN A LITTLE ABOVE IN SOME SPOTS...BUT WITH
GENERALLY LOWER DEWPOINTS TUE NIGHT AND PERHAPS WED NIGHT...
NIGHTTIME LOW TEMPS MAY ACTUALLY DROP A BIT. SOME MARGINALLY
CRITICAL MINIMUM RH VALUES MAY BE REALIZED ACROSS THE NW
QUARTER...MAINLY NW PLATEAU REGION...TUE INTO WED AND PERHAPS THU.
WIND SPEEDS THOUGH ARE NOT EXPECTED TO JOIN THE MARGINALLY CRITICAL
RH VALUES IN THAT AREA. PREVAILING WINDS WILL REMAIN LIGHT TO
MODERATE...GENERALLY THE STRONGEST ACROSS SOME SECTIONS OF NE
NM...BUT OF COURSE ERRATIC AND OCCASIONALLY STRONG GUSTS CAN BE
EXPECTED WITH ANY LOCALIZED THUNDERSTORM OUTFLOWS. FAR EAST CENTRAL
AND SE PLAINS SHOULD BE BY FAR THE LEAST ACTIVE RAINWISE
TODAY...THOUGH SOME ACTIVITY MAY FILL IN A LITTLE FARTHER EAST LATER
TODAY AND TUE THAN WAS THE CASE SUN.

MOIST PLUME WILL WEAKEN SOME AND SHIFT A LITTLE FARTHER EAST TUE AS
ALSO A LEE SIDE SURFACE TROUGH ENCOURAGES MODERATELY BREEZY
CONDITIONS IN THE NE MONDAY. THIS SURFACE TROUGH WEAKENS A LITTLE
TUE WHILE THE MOISTURE KEEPS SHIFTING EAST...WHILE BECOMING AT LEAST
A LITTLE MORE DIFFUSE. THE NW THIRD OR EVEN HALF OF THE STATE SHOULD
SEE THE MOST PRONOUNCED DECREASE IN SHOWERS AND STORMS TUE AND
PERHAPS AN EVEN LARGER AREA WED. A WEAK WIND SHIFT STILL LOOKS LIKE
A POSSIBILITY ACROSS SOME PORTION OF THE NE LATER WED INTO THU...BUT
APPEARS MORE LACKING IN THE MOISTURE DEPARTMENT THAN MOST BACK DOOR
INTRUSIONS HAVE SO FAR THIS SUMMER. THERE MAY BE SLIGHT TO MODERATE
UPTICK IN SHOWER AND STORM POTENTIAL ACROSS WEST AND MAYBE CENTRAL
AREAS LATE WEEK...BUT OVERALL THE SOMEWHAT DRIER PATTERN WILL LIKELY
HOLD THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK WITH JUST ISOLATED TO SCATTERED
STORMS.

43

&&

.ABQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FLASH FLOOD WATCH FROM 2 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 10 PM MDT THIS
EVENING FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES...
NMZ504>508-511-512-514-517>522-524.

&&

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBUQUERQUE NM
533 AM MDT MON AUG 4 2014

NMZ501>540-051200-
NORTHWEST PLATEAU-CHUSKA MOUNTAINS-FAR NORTHWEST HIGHLANDS-
NORTHWEST HIGHLANDS-WEST CENTRAL PLATEAU-WEST CENTRAL MOUNTAINS-
WEST CENTRAL HIGHLANDS-SOUTHWEST MOUNTAINS-
SAN FRANCISCO RIVER VALLEY-SAN JUAN MOUNTAINS-JEMEZ MOUNTAINS-
WEST SLOPES SANGRE DE CRISTO MOUNTAINS-
NORTHERN SANGRE DE CRISTO MOUNTAINS ABOVE 9500 FEET/RED RIVER-
SOUTHERN SANGRE DE CRISTO MOUNTAINS ABOVE 9500 FEET-
EAST SLOPES SANGRE DE CRISTO MOUNTAINS-UPPER RIO GRANDE VALLEY-
LOWER CHAMA RIVER VALLEY-SANTA FE METRO AREA-ALBUQUERQUE METRO AREA-
LOWER RIO GRANDE VALLEY-SANDIA/MANZANO MOUNTAINS-ESTANCIA VALLEY-
CENTRAL HIGHLANDS-SOUTH CENTRAL HIGHLANDS-UPPER TULAROSA VALLEY-
SOUTH CENTRAL MOUNTAINS-RATON RIDGE/JOHNSON MESA-
FAR NORTHEAST HIGHLANDS-NORTHEAST HIGHLANDS-UNION COUNTY-
HARDING COUNTY-EASTERN SAN MIGUEL COUNTY-GUADALUPE COUNTY-
QUAY COUNTY-CURRY COUNTY-ROOSEVELT COUNTY-DE BACA COUNTY-
CHAVES COUNTY PLAINS-EASTERN LINCOLN COUNTY-SOUTHWEST CHAVES COUNTY-
533 AM MDT MON AUG 4 2014

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF NORTH AND CENTRAL
NEW MEXICO.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT

THUNDERSTORMS WILL MOVE SLOWLY NORTH ACROSS CENTRAL AND WESTERN
NEW MEXICO AND PRODUCE LOCALIZED AREAS OF TORRENTIAL RAINFALL
THROUGH THIS EVENING. THIS ACTIVITY HAS THE POTENTIAL TO TRAIN
REPEATEDLY OVER THE SAME AREAS...THUS LEADING TO RAINFALL AMOUNTS
OF 1 TO 2 INCHES IN JUST ONE HOURS TIME. AREAS THAT HAVE RECENTLY
EXPERIENCED HEAVY RAINFALL WILL BE ESPECIALLY SUSCEPTIBLE TO FLASH
FLOODING...AS WELL AS IN URBAN DRAINAGES AND OVER WILDFIRE BURN
SCAR AREAS.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY

THE COVERAGE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL TAPER OFF TUESDAY
OVER MUCH OF THE AREA HOWEVER LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL IS STILL
POSSIBLE. THIS MAY LEAD TO LOCALIZED AREAS OF FLASH FLOODING...
ESPECIALLY OVER AND NEAR RECENT AND OLDER BURN SCARS. ONLY ISOLATED
STORMS ARE EXPECTED WEDNESDAY. THE COVERAGE OF SHOWERS AND STORMS
WILL INCREASE SLIGHTLY ONCE AGAIN THURSDAY THROUGH THE WEEKEND
WITH VERY LOCALIZED AREAS OF HEAVY RAINFALL POSSIBLE.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT ANTICIPATED.

GUYER