Flash Flood Warning 12, NWS Albuquerque, NM

954 
WGUS75 KABQ 142108
FFSABQ

FLASH FLOOD STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBUQUERQUE NM
308 PM MDT MON JUL 14 2014

NMC027-142315-
/O.CON.KABQ.FF.W.0012.000000T0000Z-140714T2315Z/
/00000.0.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/
LINCOLN NM-
308 PM MDT MON JUL 14 2014

...A FLASH FLOOD WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 515 PM MDT FOR SOUTH
CENTRAL LINCOLN COUNTY...

AT 303 PM MDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE METEOROLOGISTS CONTINUED TO 
DETECT A THREAT FOR FLASH FLOODING. EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT OFFICIALS 
REPORTED RUNOFF AND LARGE DEBRIS OVER PORTIONS OF STATE HIGHWAY 37 
NEAR BONITO LAKE...OR ABOUT 9 MILES NORTH OF RUIDOSO. WHILE RAINFALL 
HAS MOMENTARILY DIMINISHED...ADDITIONAL SHOWERS AND STORMS ARE 
MOVING TOWARD THE WARNING AREA...AND THE THREAT FOR FLOODING IS 
EXPECTED TO CONTINUE.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

RUNOFF FROM RAINFALL WILL CAUSE ELEVATED WATER LEVELS WITHIN 
VULNERABLE DRAINAGES IN AND DOWNSTREAM OF THE LITTLE BEAR FIRE BURN 
AREA...INCLUDING AREAS NEAR AND ALONG THE RIO BONITO.

TO REPORT FLOODING OR SEVERE WEATHER...CONTACT THE NATIONAL WEATHER 
SERVICE FORECAST OFFICE IN ALBUQUERQUE AT 1-888-386-7637.

&&

LAT...LON 3350 10581 3351 10555 3345 10555 3339 10569
      3339 10581

$$

SHOEMAKE

490 
WGUS75 KABQ 142306
FFSABQ

FLASH FLOOD STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBUQUERQUE NM
506 PM MDT MON JUL 14 2014

NMC027-142315-
/O.EXP.KABQ.FF.W.0012.000000T0000Z-140714T2315Z/
/00000.0.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/
LINCOLN NM-
506 PM MDT MON JUL 14 2014

...THE FLASH FLOOD WARNING WILL EXPIRE AT 515 PM MDT FOR SOUTH
CENTRAL LINCOLN COUNTY...

NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED THE FLOODING THREAT 
WAS ENDING ACROSS THE WARNED AREA. SOME MINOR FLOODING MAY 
CONTINUE...BUT THE THREAT FOR FLASH FLOODING IS ENDING. THUS...THE 
FLASH FLOOD WARNING HAS BEEN ALLOWED TO EXPIRE.

LAT...LON 3350 10581 3351 10555 3345 10555 3339 10569
      3339 10581

$$

SHOEMAKE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBUQUERQUE NM
1202 PM MDT MON JUL 14 2014

.AVIATION...
18Z TAF CYCLE
ANOTHER ROUND OF SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS WILL IMPACT THE FORECAST
AREA TODAY/TONIGHT. IT IS EXPECTED THAT ALL TERMINAL SITES WOULD
BE IMPACTED BY THIS ACTIVITY. SOME SITES HAVE MORE POTENTIAL THAN
OTHERS INCLUDING SOME VIS RESTRICTIONS DUE TO SHORT TERM HEAVY
RAIN. VRB GUSTY WINDS WILL ALSO PLAGUE MANY OF THE SITES. MVFR
CIGS DUE TO PASSING STORMS WILL BE MOST POSSIBLE AT LVS/TCC DUE TO
COLD FRONTAL EFFECTS THERE. AS THE SH/TS DECLINE IN
COVERAGE/INTENSITY DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS...SOME RESIDUAL LOW
CIGS WILL BE POSSIBLE OVER EASTERN PLAINS SITES. TCC HAS THE BEST
CHANCE OF OBSERVING THAT ALTHOUGH CANT RULE OUT LVS.

50

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...355 AM MDT MON JUL 14 2014...
.SYNOPSIS...
VERY RICH ATMOSPHERIC MOISTURE ACROSS FORECAST AREA AND THIS
WILL...FOR THE MOST PART...BE AROUND AT LEAST THROUGH THURSDAY
BEFORE HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT BEGINS TO BUILD MORE STRONGLY OVER OR
NEARER NEW MEXICO. AT LEAST 2 MORE BACK DOOR COLD FRONTS WILL MAKE
IT ACROSS EAST AND AT LEAST PORTIONS OF CENTRAL NEW MEXICO THROUGH
WEDNESDAY NIGHT OR THURSDAY...SO WE STILL HAVE AT LEAST 4 DAYS TO
GET MOST...PREFERABLY ALL...LOCALES A HALFWAY DECENT DRINK OF
WATER BEFORE STRONG HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT BUILDS OVER OR VERY NEAR
THE STATE AND REALLY STABILIZES...DRIES AND FURTHER WARMS THE
ATMOSPHERE...GREATLY REDUCING STORM COVERAGE.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
A NUMBER OF TWEAKS...MORE MINOR THAN MODERATE...MADE TO MOST OF
THE FCST GRIDS ACROSS MOST OF THE NEXT 6 PERIODS. SOME OF THE
BIGGER ISSUES TO WRESTLE WITH WILL BE JUST WHERE THE HEAVIEST
RAINS WILL FALL...TIMING OF THE BACK DOOR FRONTS/MOISTURE
RECHARGES...HOW MUCH EACH DAY/S CONVECTION WILL IMPACT OR CHANGE
THE LOCATION AND EVOLUTION OF MID AND UPPER TROPOSPHERIC
DISTURBANCES AND HENCE THE LOCATION AND INTENSITY OF THE STRONGEST
STORMS AND HEAVIEST RAINFALL. DECIDED AGAINST ISSUING ANOTHER
FLASH FLOOD WATCH AS TODAY BRINGS A LITTLE LESS FOCUSED AN AREA OF
POTENTIAL HEAVY RAINFALL. BUT PWATS ARE QUITE HIGH ACROSS MUCH OF
FCST AREA...SO DECIDED TO ADD LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN WORDING TO ALL
SCATTERED OR GREATER COVERAGE POPS AREAS. LAST BACK DOOR PUSH
LOOKS TO COME INTO AND ACROSS A GOOD PORTION OF N AND CENTRAL NM
BETWEEN

MODELS ARE STILL PRETTY CONSISTENT WITH A TREND TO DRIER AND
WARMER WEATHER BY AND OVER THE COMING WEEKEND AS THE NORTHWEST
FLOW ALOFT GIVES WAY TO A MONSTROUS HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM
ALOFT...WHICH WILL WARM...DRY AND STABILIZE THE ATMOSPHERE ACROSS
MUCH OF THE STATE. THERE IS A LITTLE MORE MOISTURE INDICATED TO BE
TRAPPED UNDER THE HIGH ON THE LATEST ECMWF AND GFS MODELS FOR GOOD
PORTION OF NEXT WEEK...SO THERE IS STILL SOME HOPE THAT AT LEAST
ISOLATED SHOWERS AND STORMS CAN BE REALIZED FOR PORTIONS OF NEXT
WEEK.

43

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
WETTING RAIN TO CONTINUE OVER MUCH OF THE AREA TODAY THROUGH
WEDNESDAY WITH SOME DRYING AND A REDUCTION IN COVERAGE THURSDAY THROUGH
MONDAY.

SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS PERSISTED WHILE GRADUALLY DISSIPATING
DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS...WITH GOOD TO EXCELLENT RH RECOVERS MOST
AREAS EXCEPT THE LOWER ELEVATIONS OF THE NORTHWEST PLATEAU.

AN AMPLIFIED PATTERN IS IN PLACE WITH AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OVER THE
WESTERN STATES AND AN UNSEASONABLY STRONG UPPER LOW OVER THE NORTH
CENTRAL STATES WITH NORTHWEST FLOW TO INCREASE AS THE PATTERN
CONTINUES TO AMPLIFY. THIS PATTERN WILL SUPPORT REGULAR INTRUSIONS
OF MOISTURE IN THE FORM OF BACK DOOR FRONTS INTO THE EASTERN PLAINS.
SOUNDINGS FROM SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND CURRENT SATELLITE PRODUCTS
INDICATE THAT PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES ARE GREATER THAN ONE INCH
ACROSS NEW MEXICO WITH HIGHER VALUES OVER THE TEXAS PANHANDLE. IN
THE WAKE OF A BACK DOOR FRONT ON SUNDAY...ANOTHER FRONT WILL MOVE
INTO THE NORTHEAST TODAY AND THROUGH MOST OF THE PLAINS OVERNIGHT...
ACCOMPANIED BY ANOTHER SURGE OF MOISTURE. WIDESPREAD WETTING RAINS
ARE EXPECTED TODAY...SOME WITH LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN...WITH A FOCUS
AREAS ACROSS THE WEST AND WELL AS THE CENTRAL HIGH TERRAIN AND
ADJACENT EAST SLOPES AND HIGHLANDS.

MODERATE GAP WINDS OVERNIGHT WILL USHER LOW LEVEL MOISTURE INTO THE
CENTRAL VALLEYS AND WESTERN ZONES. ADDITIONALLY...THE SURFACE HIGH
STRENGTHENS OVER THE GREAT PLAINS ON TUESDAY AND MOIST EASTERLY FLOW
WILL PERSIST ACROSS THE EASTERN PLAINS. YET ANOTHER FRONT SURGES
INTO THE NORTHEAST ON WEDNESDAY...AS AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE
MOVES OVER THE STATE IN NORTHWEST FLOW. THUS...WIDESPREAD WETTING
RAINS WILL CONTINUE TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY....WITH MOSTLY GOOD TO
EXCELLENT OVERNIGHT RH RECOVERIES. THE SLOW MOVEMENT OF STORMS WILL
SUPPORT LOCAL FLOODING...AND BURN SCARS WILL BE PARTICULARLY
SUSCEPTIBLE.

BY THURSDAY...THE UPPER HIGH IS CENTERED OVER NORTHWEST MEXICO AND
WITH INCREASED NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT DRIER AIR MOVES OVER THE
NORTHWEST...DECREASING THE CHANCES FOR WETTING RAIN THERE. RECYCLING
OF MOISTURE WILL RESULT IN CONTINUED WETTING RAIN...THOUGH A
DOWNTICK IN COVERAGE IS EXPECTED.  HIGH HAINES VALUES OF 5 TO
POSSIBLY 6 WILL BE IN PLACE ACROSS THE NORTHWEST. MORE DRYING WILL
STEADILY DECREASE CONVECTION FRIDAY THROUGH THE WEEKEND AS THE AREA
OF HIGH HAINES STEADILY INCREASES AND MIN RH VALUES STEADILY
DECREASE AS WELL.

05

&&

.ABQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBUQUERQUE NM
608 AM MDT MON JUL 14 2014

NMZ501>540-151200-
NORTHWEST PLATEAU-CHUSKA MOUNTAINS-FAR NORTHWEST HIGHLANDS-
NORTHWEST HIGHLANDS-WEST CENTRAL PLATEAU-WEST CENTRAL MOUNTAINS-
WEST CENTRAL HIGHLANDS-SOUTHWEST MOUNTAINS-
SAN FRANCISCO RIVER VALLEY-SAN JUAN MOUNTAINS-JEMEZ MOUNTAINS-
WEST SLOPES SANGRE DE CRISTO MOUNTAINS-
NORTHERN SANGRE DE CRISTO MOUNTAINS ABOVE 9500 FEET/RED RIVER-
SOUTHERN SANGRE DE CRISTO MOUNTAINS ABOVE 9500 FEET-
EAST SLOPES SANGRE DE CRISTO MOUNTAINS-UPPER RIO GRANDE VALLEY-
LOWER CHAMA RIVER VALLEY-SANTA FE METRO AREA-ALBUQUERQUE METRO AREA-
LOWER RIO GRANDE VALLEY-SANDIA/MANZANO MOUNTAINS-ESTANCIA VALLEY-
CENTRAL HIGHLANDS-SOUTH CENTRAL HIGHLANDS-UPPER TULAROSA VALLEY-
SOUTH CENTRAL MOUNTAINS-RATON RIDGE/JOHNSON MESA-
FAR NORTHEAST HIGHLANDS-NORTHEAST HIGHLANDS-UNION COUNTY-
HARDING COUNTY-EASTERN SAN MIGUEL COUNTY-GUADALUPE COUNTY-
QUAY COUNTY-CURRY COUNTY-ROOSEVELT COUNTY-DE BACA COUNTY-
CHAVES COUNTY PLAINS-EASTERN LINCOLN COUNTY-SOUTHWEST CHAVES COUNTY-
608 AM MDT MON JUL 14 2014

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF NORTH AND CENTRAL
NEW MEXICO.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT

SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TODAY INTO TONIGHT.
RAINFALL COULD BECOME HEAVY AT TIMES. THIS MAY LEAD TO LOCALIZED
AREAS OF FLASH FLOODING...ESPECIALLY OVER AND NEAR RECENT AND
OLDER BURN SCARS. ISOLATED LOCATIONS MAY RECEIVE UP TO 2 INCHES OF
RAINFALL OR VERY LOCALLY EVEN MORE. A FEW STORMS MAY ALSO PRODUCE
SMALL HAIL AND WIND GUSTS TO 50 MPH.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY

SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH AT LEAST
THURSDAY. RAINFALL ONCE AGAIN COULD BECOME HEAVY. THIS MAY LEAD TO
LOCALIZED AREAS OF FLASH FLOODING...ESPECIALLY OVER AND NEAR
RECENT AND OLDER BURN SCARS. ISOLATED LOCATIONS MAY RECEIVE UP TO
2 INCHES OF RAINFALL. A FEW STORMS MAY ALSO PRODUCE SMALL HAIL AND
WIND GUSTS TO 50 MPH.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTERS ARE ENCOURAGED TO REPORT RAINFALL AMOUNTS AND ANY FLOODING
THROUGH THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBUQUERQUE WEB SITE AT
WEATHER.GOV/ABQ OR BY CALLING 1.888.386.7637.

43