Flash Flood Warning 24, NWS Las Vegas, NV

973 
WGUS75 KVEF 142246
FFSVEF

FLASH FLOOD STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAS VEGAS NV
346 PM MST SUN JUL 14 2013

AZC015-150030-
/O.CON.KVEF.FF.W.0024.000000T0000Z-130715T0030Z/
/00000.0.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/
MOHAVE AZ-
346 PM MST SUN JUL 14 2013

...A FLASH FLOOD WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 530 PM MST FOR
CENTRAL MOHAVE COUNTY...

AT 345 PM MST...SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUE TO 
DEVELOP AND PRODUCE MODERATE TO HEAVY RAIN OVER THE DEAN PEAK BURN 
AREA APPROXIMATELY 10 TO 12 MILES EAST OF KINGMAN SOUTH OF 
INTERSTATE 40 AND SOUTH ALONG BLAKE RANCH ROAD. THIS HAS BEEN 
ONGOING FOR A LARGE PART OF THE AFTERNOON AND FLASH FLOODING WITH 
DEBRIS FLOWS INCLUDING ASH AND BLACKENED SOIL IS LIKELY OCCURRING.

* LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...AREAS SOUTH OF INTERSTATE 40 
APPROXIMATELY 10 TO 18 MILES EAST OF KINGMAN...BLAKE RANCH 
ROAD...GETZ RANCH ROAD...DW RANCH ROAD.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

HEAVY RAINFALL CONTINUES TO FALL OVER THE DEAN PEAK BURN AREA. 
BECAUSE OF THE LACK OF VEGETATION...WATER LEVELS WILL RISE MUCH MORE 
RAPIDLY DURING FLASH FLOODS...LEADING TO AN INCREASED RISK OF MUD 
AND DEBRIS FLOWS IN AND DOWNSTREAM OF THIS BURN AREA.

FLASH FLOODING IS EXPECTED IN WASHES...LOW WATER CROSSINGS AND ON
AREA ROADWAYS. FLASH FLOODING IS NATURES NUMBER ONE KILLER. TO ESCAPE
RISING WATER...MOVE TO HIGHER GROUND. NEVER TRY TO CROSS A FLOODED
ROADWAY OR WALK THROUGH FLOODWATERS. TURN AROUND...DONT DROWN!

REPORT FLOODING BY POSTING YOUR REPORT TO THE LAS VEGAS NATIONAL 
WEATHER SERVICE FACEBOOK PAGE...OR ON TWITTER USING...AT NWSVEGAS.

&&

LAT...LON 3519 11390 3518 11385 3516 11378 3506 11379
      3509 11391

$$

KENNEDY

224 
WGUS75 KVEF 150028
FFSVEF

FLASH FLOOD STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAS VEGAS NV
528 PM MST SUN JUL 14 2013

AZC015-150035-
/O.EXP.KVEF.FF.W.0024.000000T0000Z-130715T0030Z/
/00000.0.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/
MOHAVE AZ-
528 PM MST SUN JUL 14 2013

...THE FLASH FLOOD WARNING WILL EXPIRE AT 530 PM MST FOR CENTRAL 
MOHAVE COUNTY...SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO 
CONTINUE A DOWNWARD TREND IN THE VICINITY OF THE DEAN PEAK BURN AREA 
THE REMAINDER OF THE AFTERNOON. THEREFORE...THE FLASH FLOOD WARNING 
FOR THIS AREA WILL BE ALLOWED TO EXPIRE.

MOTORISTS ARE URGED TO USE CAUTION AS THERE MAY STILL BE A FLOW OF 
DEBRIS AND ASH LADEN BLACK WATER IMPACTING LAKE RANCH ROAD...GETZ 
RANCH ROAD...AND DW RANCH ROAD.

LAT...LON 3519 11390 3518 11385 3516 11378 3506 11379
      3509 11391

$$
KENNEDY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAS VEGAS NV
952 AM PDT SUN JUL 14 2013

.SYNOPSIS...ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED MAINLY
EACH AFTERNOON ACROSS THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS OF EASTERN CLARK AND
LINCOLN COUNTIES IN NEVADA AND MOHAVE COUNTY IN NORTHWEST ARIZONA
THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK. MOSTLY DRY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED
ELSEWHERE. A SLOW WARMING TREND WILL CONTINUE INTO MONDAY...WITH
TEMPERATURES AT OR SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF THE
WEEK. THE POTENTIAL EXISTS FOR AN INCREASE IN THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY
BY THE END OF THE WORK WEEK.
&&

.UPDATE...QUICK UPDATE TO INCLUDE A 20 PERCENT CHANCE OF
THUNDERSTORMS FOR THE LAS VEGAS VALLEY TODAY. ONE CELL SOUTH OF LAS
VEGAS...EAST OF JEAN...MAY IMPACT THE SOUTH VALLEY BY NOON.
&&

.AVIATION...FOR MCCARRAN...ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS PRESENTLY IN THE
PEACH SPRINGS CORRIDOR WILL BE MOVING NORTH INTO THE MORMON MESA
CORRIDOR AFT 16Z. LIGHT SOUTH WIND WILL CONTINUE THROUGH MID MORNING
BEFORE BEGINNING TO FAVOR A SOUTHEASTERLY DIRECTION.
BROKEN CIGS ABV 12 KFT TDA. THERE WILL CONTINUE TO BE ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS IN THE PEACH SPRINGS AND MORMON MESA CORRIDORS THIS
AFTERNOON. NO SIGNIFICANT WEATHER EXPECTED IN THE VALLEY AT THIS
TIME.

FOR THE REST OF SOUTHERN NEVADA...NORTHWEST ARIZONA...AND SOUTHEAST
CALIFORNIA...LIGHT WINDS FAVORING TYPICAL DIURNAL TRENDS ACROSS THE
AREA THROUGH MID-DAY...THEN FAVORING A SOUTHERLY DIRECTION GENERALLY
UNDER 12 KTS IN THE AFTERNOON. GUSTS TO 15-20 KTS WILL BE POSSIBLE
IN THE OWENS VALLEY THIS AFTERNOON. ISOLATED SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS
WILL BE POSSIBLE AGAIN TODAY...MAINLY OVER LINCOLN/ERN CLARK AND MOHAVE
COUNTIES. CIGS WILL BE MAINLY BETWEEN 10-20K FEET.
&&

.PREV UPDATE
603 AM PDT SUN JUL 14 2013

.UPDATE...ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPED IN SOUTHWEST MOHAVE
COUNTY EARLY THIS MORNING AND THE FORECAST WAS UPDATED TO ACCOUNT
FOR THEM.  -HARRISON-
&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...
237 AM PDT SUN JUL 14 2013

.SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH MONDAY...RECENT SATELLITE LOOPS SHOWED
SCATTERED TO BROKEN CLOUD COVER MOVING NORTH ACROSS THE SOUTHERN
EDGE OF THE FORECAST AREA...AS WELL AS ACROSS MOHAVE COUNTY. THIS
AREA WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE NORTH ACROSS THE AREA...BUT WILL LIKELY
THIN AND DISSIPATE SOMEWHAT THROUGH THE DAYLIGHT HOURS. PRECIPITABLE
WATER VALUES OF 1-1.5 INCHES WILL ONCE AGAIN REMAIN EAST OF A
TWENTYNINE PALMS-LAS VEGAS-MESQUITE LINE. HOWEVER INSTABILITY IS
EXPECTED TO BE SIGNIFICANTLY WEAKER WITH LI'S GENERALLY BETWEEN 0
AND -2...THUS HAVE REDUCED POPS A BIT MORE FOR TODAY.

VERY LITTLE DAY TO DAY CHANGE IS EXPECTED FOR THE NEXT FEW DAYS AS
THE REGION LIES BETWEEN SOUTHWEST FLOW TO THE WEST AND SOUTHERLY
FLOW IN THE EAST. THIS WILL KEEP THE WESTERN 2/3RDS OF THE AREA DRY
WITH JUST A FEW CLOUDS DEVELOPING EACH AFTERNOON. MEANWHILE MOIST
SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL KEEP CHANCES FOR ISOLATED SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS
IN THE FORECAST FOR AT LEAST THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS OF LINCOLN AND
MOHAVE COUNTIES EACH AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING. TEMPERATURES ARE
EXPECTED TO CONTINUE TO SLOWLY WARM OVER THE NEXT COUPLE
DAYS...REACH TO SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL LEVELS TODAY...AND WARMING
ANOTHER DEGREE OR TWO MONDAY.

.LONG TERM...TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...HIGH PRESSURE STILL EXPECTED
TO BE OVER UTAH TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY WITH A SOUTHERLY FLOW OVER THE
FORECAST AREA. NORTH-SOUTH MOISTURE BOUNDARY STILL PROGGED TO BE
EAST OF LAS VEGAS AND I KEPT A CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS IN THE
FORECAST FOR MUCH OF MOHAVE COUNTY AND EASTERN LINCOLN COUNTY.
MOISTURE AND THUNDERSTORM CHANCES MAY AT LEAST GRADUALLY SPREAD
WEST THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY AS THE WEST/SOUTHWEST MOVING UPPER
LOW MOVES INTO NORTHWEST MEXICO AND AN EASTERLY COMPONENT DEVELOPS
TO THE FLOW. THE MODELS ALL DIFFER IN THE EXACT POSITION OF THAT LOW
AND HOW FAR WEST AND NORTH THE MOISTURE SPREADS. THE GFS SOLUTION IS
NOT AS FAVORABLE FOR THE MOISTURE INCREASE AS IT KEEPS THE FLOW MORE
NORTHERLY THAN THE ECMWF AND GEM. THEREFORE...DUE TO THESE MODEL
DIFFERENCES AND RELATIVELY LOW CONFIDENCE...ONLY VERY MINOR CHANGES
WERE MADE TO THE POP GRIDS FOR THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY.
THUNDERSTORM CHANCES WERE MENTIONED ACROSS ALL OF CLARK...LINCOLN
AND MOHAVE COUNTIES AND EASTERN SAN BERNARDINO COUNTY BY SATURDAY.
ECE AND MEX GUIDANCE MAX TEMPS DIFFERED BY SEVERAL DEGREES MOST DAYS
AND THE FORECAST IS BASICALLY A BLEND OF THE TWO WHICH BASICALLY
PUTS THEM CLOSE TO NORMAL...MAYBE SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL BY SATURDAY.
&&

.FIRE WEATHER...ISOLATED AND MAINLY WET SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS ARE
EXPECTED AGAIN TODAY...MAINLY ACROSS THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS OF MOHAVE
AND LINCOLN COUNTIES. THIS WILL BE THE SAME STORY THROUGH AT LEAST
THE MIDDLE OF THE COMING WEEK. WIND WILL BE GENERALLY UNDER 20
MPH...WITH RELATIVELY DRY CONDITIONS IN THE WESTERN HALF OF THE AREA
AND MORE MOIST CONDITIONS IN THE EAST. MODELS POINT TO A POTENTIAL
INCREASE IN SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY BY LATE THIS WEEK.
&&

.VEF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NV...NONE.
AZ...NONE.
CA...NONE.
&&

UPDATE...PIERCE
PREV DISCUSSION...WOLCOTT/HARRISON

FOR MORE FORECAST INFORMATION...SEE US ON OUR WEBPAGE:

HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/LASVEGAS OR FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK AND TWITTER

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAS VEGAS NV
340 AM PDT SUN JUL 14 2013

AZZ001-003-NVZ015-150700-
NORTHWEST PLATEAU-NORTHWEST DESERTS-LINCOLN COUNTY-
340 AM PDT SUN JUL 14 2013 /340 AM MST SUN JUL 14 2013/

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF NORTHWEST
ARIZONA AND SOUTHERN NEVADA.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT

ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS MUCH OF
MOHAVE COUNTY AND EASTERN PORTIONS OF LINCOLN COUNTY...MAINLY THIS
AFTERNOON AND EVENING. GUSTY WINDS AND BRIEF HEAVY RAIN IS POSSIBLE
WITH THESE STORMS.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY

ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS CAN BE EXPECTED THROUGH WEDNESDAY. THERE IS
POTENTIAL FOR INCREASING THUNDERSTORM CHANCES THURSDAY THROUGH
SATURDAY AS A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVES SOUTHWEST INTO NORTHERN
MEXICO. THERE IS UNCERTAINTY AS TO THE TRACK OF THIS SYSTEM AND
THEREFORE CONFIDENCE IN THE INCREASING MOISTURE AND THUNDERSTORM
CHANCES IS NOT HIGH.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME. HOWEVER...
SPOTTERS ARE ENCOURAGED TO REPORT ANY SIGNIFICANT WEATHER
CONDITIONS ACCORDING TO STANDARD OPERATING PROCEDURES.

AZZ002-036-CAZ519>527-NVZ014-016>022-150700-
LOWER COLORADO RIVER VALLEY-LAKE MEAD NATIONAL RECREATION AREA-
EASTERN SIERRA SLOPES-OWENS VALLEY-WHITE MOUNTAINS OF INYO COUNTY-
DEATH VALLEY NATIONAL PARK-WESTERN MOJAVE DESERT-
EASTERN MOJAVE DESERT-MORONGO BASIN-CADIZ BASIN-
SAN BERNARDINO COUNTY-UPPER COLORADO RIVER VALLEY-
ESMERALDA AND CENTRAL NYE COUNTY-NORTHEAST CLARK COUNTY-
WESTERN CLARK AND SOUTHERN NYE COUNTY-SHEEP RANGE-
SPRING MOUNTAINS-LAS VEGAS VALLEY-SOUTHERN CLARK COUNTY-
340 AM PDT SUN JUL 14 2013 /340 AM MST SUN JUL 14 2013/

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF NORTHWEST
ARIZONA...CALIFORNIA AND SOUTHERN NEVADA.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT

HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY

HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS NOT EXPECTED THROUGH WEDNESDAY. THERE IS
POTENTIAL FOR INCREASING THUNDERSTORM CHANCES THURSDAY THROUGH
SATURDAY AS A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVES SOUTHWEST INTO NORTHERN
MEXICO. THERE IS UNCERTAINTY AS TO THE TRACK OF THIS SYSTEM AND
THEREFORE CONFIDENCE IN THE INCREASING MOISTURE AND THUNDERSTORM
CHANCES IS NOT HIGH.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME. HOWEVER...
SPOTTERS ARE ENCOURAGED TO REPORT ANY SIGNIFICANT WEATHER
CONDITIONS ACCORDING TO STANDARD OPERATING PROCEDURES.

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAS VEGAS NV
1208 PM PDT SUN JUL 14 2013

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

1130 AM     FLASH FLOOD      5 W CEDAR HILLS         35.18N 113.88W
07/14/2013                   MOHAVE             AZ   TRAINED SPOTTER

            BLACK WATER 3 FEET DEEP FLOWING ACROSS DW RANCH ROAD.
            FLOW OF WATER IS 12 FEET WIDE AND CONTAINS DEBRIS.

&&

METZGER