Tornado Warning 5, NWS Rapid City, SD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION FOR WESTERN SD AND NORTHEASTERN WY
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RAPID CITY SD
127 PM MDT SAT JUN 22 2013

.SHORT TERM...THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT
ISSUED AT 1259 PM MDT SAT JUN 22 2013

LATEST SFC ANALYSIS SHOWS LOW PRESSURE OVER ERN COLORADO WITH AN
INVERTED TROUGH EXTENDING NORTHWARD INTO ERN WYOMING. MOIST
EASTERLY LOW LEVEL UPSLOPE FLOW EXISTS ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA
WITH DEWPOINTS IN THE UPPER 50S TO MID 60S. SAT SHOWS UPPER LOW
OVER ALBERTA/SASKATCHEWAN WITH A VORT MAX ROUNDING THE BASE OF THE
UPPER TROUGH CURRENTLY ENTERING WESTERN WYOMING. A FEW STRONG TO
SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS HAVE ALREADY DEVELOPED AHEAD OF THAT FEATURE
OVER CENTRAL WYOMING. MESO MODELS SHOW A FEW TSTMS DEVELOPING
OVER NORTHEASTERN WYOMING...AND FAR WESTERN SOUTH DAKOTA THIS
AFTERNOON. MORE WIDESPREAD STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ARE
EXPECTED TO DEVELOP AS THE UPPER WAVE CROSSES THE AREA LATE THIS
AFTERNOON AND EVENING. PLENTY OF LOW LEVEL SHEAR WILL BE IN PLACE
FOR SUPERCELL DEVELOPMENT. LARGE HAIL WILL BE THE PRIMARY THREAT
EARLY IN THE DEVELOPMENT CYCLE...WITH HIGH WIND BECOMING THE
PREDOMINANT THREAT AS THE STORMS CROSS WESTERN SOUTH DAKOTA THIS
EVENING. THE SEVERE THREAT IS EXPECTED TO MOVE EAST OF THE
FORECAST AREA SHORTLY AFTER MIDNIGHT.

ON SUNDAY...THE UPPER TROF WILL SWING INTO CANADA DURING THE DAY
WITH SOME RESIDUAL SHOWERS POSSIBLE IN THE MORNING ACROSS FAR
NORTHWEST SOUTH DAKOTA. OTHERWISE...SKIES SHOULD BE MOSTLY SUNNY
WITH HIGHS CLIMBING INTO THE MID 70S TO MID 80S. THERE COULD BE A
STRAY SHOWER OR STORM OVER THE BLACK HILLS OR FAR SOUTHWESTERN SD DURING
THE AFTERNOON. DRY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED SUNDAY NIGHT.

&&

.LONG TERM...MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY
ISSUED AT 1259 PM MDT SAT JUN 22 2013

SW FLOW ALOFT CONTINUES INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. ON MONDAY...A
SURFACE TROF WILL WORK INTO THE WRN CWFA. SFC CAPE WILL CLIMB TO
2000-3000J/KG EAST OF THE TROF OVER WESTERN SOUTH DAKOTA. IT
LOOKS LIKE CAPPING INVERSION COULD ERODE OVER FAR WESTERN SOUTH DAKOTA DURING
THE LATE AFTERNOON...WITH TSTMS MOVING EASTWARD DURING THE
EVENING. ANY STORMS THAT DEVELOP COULD BE STRONG/SEVERE ON MONDAY AFT/EVE.
TUESDAY WILL LIKELY BE THE LAST DAY FOR ANY POSSIBLE CONVECTION...WITH
UPPER RIDGE BUILDING TO THE WEST BRINGING WARM AND DRY CONDITIONS
FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SUNDAY AFTERNOON
ISSUED AT 1259 PM MDT SAT JUN 22 2013

NUMEROUS TSRA WILL DEVELOP THIS AFTERNOON INTO THIS
EVENING BRINGING AREAS OF MVFR/IFR VIS/CIGS. SOME STORMS MAY BECOME
SEVERE WITH LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WIND GUSTS. STORMS WILL DIMINISH
FROM WEST TO EAST OVERNIGHT. OTHERWISE...VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED.

&&

.UNR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
WY...NONE.
&&

SHORT TERM...10
LONG TERM...10
AVIATION...77

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RAPID CITY SD
619 AM MDT SAT JUN 22 2013

SDZ001-002-012>014-024>032-041>044-046-047-049-072>074-WYZ054>058-
071-231300-
BENNETT-BUTTE-CENTRAL BLACK HILLS-CUSTER CO PLAINS-FALL RIVER-HAAKON-
HARDING-HERMOSA FOOT HILLS-JACKSON-MELLETTE-NORTHEASTERN CROOK-
NORTHERN BLACK HILLS-NORTHERN CAMPBELL-NORTHERN FOOT HILLS-
NORTHERN MEADE CO PLAINS-PENNINGTON CO PLAINS-PERKINS-RAPID CITY-
SHANNON-SOUTHERN BLACK HILLS-SOUTHERN CAMPBELL-SOUTHERN FOOT HILLS-
SOUTHERN MEADE CO PLAINS-STURGIS/PIEDMONT FOOT HILLS-TODD-TRIPP-
WESTERN CROOK-WESTON-WYOMING BLACK HILLS-ZIEBACH-
619 AM MDT (719 AM CDT) SAT JUN 22 2013

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR WESTERN SOUTH DAKOTA AND
NORTHEASTERN WYOMING.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT

SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED THROUGHOUT THE AREA
TODAY INTO THIS EVENING WITH A SLIGHT RISK THAT SOME OF THESE STORMS
MAY BECOME SEVERE. LARGE HAIL WILL BE THE MAIN THREAT...BUT DAMAGING
WIND GUSTS AND ISOLATED TORNADOES ARE ALSO POSSIBLE.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY

THE ACTIVE WEATHER PATTERN WILL RETURN ON MONDAY. THERE IS A
SLIGHT RISK FOR SEVERE STORMS ACROSS PORTIONS OF SOUTHERN SOUTH
DAKOTA...MAINLY DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS.  AGAIN...
LARGE HAIL AND STRONG WIND GUSTS LOOK TO BE THE MAIN THREATS FROM ANY
SEVERE STORMS.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION MAY BE NEEDED TODAY.

&&

STAY TUNED TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO FOR FURTHER DETAILS OR UPDATES...
OR CHECK OUR WEB SITE AT WEATHER.GOV/RAPIDCITY

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