Tornado Warning 4, NWS Rapid City, SD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION FOR WESTERN SD AND NORTHEASTERN WY
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RAPID CITY SD
522 PM MDT WED JUN 12 2013

.SHORT TERM...THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT
ISSUED AT 218 PM MDT WED JUN 12 2013

CURRENT SURFACE ANALYSIS PLACES HIGH OVER THE WRN DAKOTAS WITH
LOW OVER THE NORTHERN ROCKIES. UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS PLACES RIDGE
AXIS NEAR THE MONTANA/DAKOTA BORDER WITH BROAD LOW OFF THE PACIFIC
NORTHWEST. A VARIETY OF WEAK DISTURBANCES ROTATING UP AHEAD OF THE
UPPER LOW CONTINUES TO PRODUCE A FEW SMALL AREAS OF CONVECTION OVER
PTNS OF WRN MT/WY.

FOR TONIGHT...RIDGE AXIS SLOWLY SCOOTS EAST A BIT WITH UPPER FLOW
BECOMING SWRLY OVER FAR WRN CWA. WITH WEAK DISTURBANCES MOVING
THROUGH MAY SEE A FEW THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOP OVER NERN WY INTO
PORTIONS OF FAR WRN SD. ALTHOUGH DEEP LAYER SHEAR WILL BE QUITE
STRONG...INSTABILITY WILL BE MODEST AT BEST. THEREFORE DO NOT
EXPECT MUCH IN THE WAY OF SEVERE...THOUGH A STORM OR TWO GETTING
STRONG WILL NOT BE OUT OF THE QUESTION...PARTICULARLY NEAR THE
MT/WY BORDER.

ON THURSDAY...RIDGE AXIS CONTINUES TO SLIDE EAST AS UPPER LOW/TROF
PUSHES TOWARDS THE ROCKIES ALLOWING A VARIETY OF WAVES TO LIFT
THROUGH SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW. SURFACE LOW SHIFT FROM SERN MT INTO
NERN WYOMING THROUGH THE AFTERNOON/EVE WITH PRESSURE GRADIENT
TIGHTENING OVER THE AREA BRINGING BREEZY SERLY WINDS. EXPECT SCT
THUNDERSTORMS TO DEVELOP IN THE AFTERNOON/EVENING MAINLY OVER THE
WRN/CTRL PARTS OF THE CWA WITH FOCUS SHIFTING MORE TO THE
NORTH/EAST OVERNIGHT WITH INCREASING LOW LEVEL JET/THETA-E
ADVECTION. SEVERE STORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH INSTABILITY
INCREASING (1000-2500 J/KG) AND PLENTY OF 0-6 KM BULK SHEAR (45
KT+).

&&

.LONG TERM...FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY
ISSUED AT 218 PM MDT WED JUN 12 2013

SOUTHWEST FLOW ON FRIDAY TRANSITIONS TO RIDGING FOR THE
WEEKEND...THEN BACK TO SOUTHWEST FLOW FOR EARLY NEXT WEEK.
THUNDERSTORM CHANCES CONTINUE THROUGH MUCH OF THE PERIOD...WITH THE
EXCEPTION OF SATURDAY INTO EARLY SUNDAY...WHEN RIDGING IS STRONGEST.
TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN AT OR ABOVE AVERAGE THROUGH THE PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z THURSDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 517 PM MDT WED JUN 12 2013

ISOLD-SCT SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED OVER PARTS OF NORTHEASTERN
WYOMING AND NORTHWESTERN SOUTH DAKOTA THROUGH THE EVENING. MVFR
CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE NEAR ANY SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORMS. AWAY
FROM THE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS...VFR CIGS WILL PREVAIL. THERE
IS ANOTHER CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS OVER NORTHEASTER WYOMING ON
THURSDAY AFTN.

&&

.UNR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
WY...NONE.
&&

SHORT TERM...77
LONG TERM...15
AVIATION...10

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RAPID CITY SD
337 AM MDT WED JUN 12 2013

SDZ001-002-012>014-024>032-041>044-046-047-049-072>074-WYZ054>058-
071-131300-
BENNETT-BUTTE-CENTRAL BLACK HILLS-CUSTER CO PLAINS-FALL RIVER-HAAKON-
HARDING-HERMOSA FOOT HILLS-JACKSON-MELLETTE-NORTHEASTERN CROOK-
NORTHERN BLACK HILLS-NORTHERN CAMPBELL-NORTHERN FOOT HILLS-
NORTHERN MEADE CO PLAINS-PENNINGTON CO PLAINS-PERKINS-RAPID CITY-
SHANNON-SOUTHERN BLACK HILLS-SOUTHERN CAMPBELL-SOUTHERN FOOT HILLS-
SOUTHERN MEADE CO PLAINS-STURGIS/PIEDMONT FOOT HILLS-TODD-TRIPP-
WESTERN CROOK-WESTON-WYOMING BLACK HILLS-ZIEBACH-
337 AM MDT (437 AM CDT) WED JUN 12 2013

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR WESTERN SOUTH DAKOTA AND
NORTHEASTERN WYOMING.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT

ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT
ACROSS NORTHEAST WYOMING AND FAR WESTERN SOUTH DAKOTA. THERE IS A
SLIGHT RISK THAT SOME STORMS WILL BE SEVERE...WITH LARGE HAIL AND
DAMAGING WINDS AS THE MAIN THREATS.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY

A NEAR DAILY CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE
REMAINDER OF THIS WEEK INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. ON THURSDAY...THERE IS
A SLIGHT RISK FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER NORTHEAST WYOMING INTO
FAR WESTERN SOUTH DAKOTA WITH LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WIND GUSTS AS
THE MAIN THREATS.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION MAY BE NEEDED TODAY.

&&

STAY TUNED TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO FOR FURTHER DETAILS OR UPDATES...
OR CHECK OUR WEB SITE AT WEATHER.GOV/RAPIDCITY

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