Tornado Warning 10, NWS Rapid City, SD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION FOR WESTERN SD AND NORTHEASTERN WY
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RAPID CITY SD
518 PM MDT TUE AUG 13 2013

.SHORT TERM...THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT
ISSUED AT 201 PM MDT TUE AUG 13 2013

WATER VAPOR IMAGERY CONTINUES TO SHOW BLOCKING PATTERN ACROSS THE
CONUS WITH UPPER RIDGING CENTERED ACROSS THE ROCKIES INTO THE HIGH
PLAINS. SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWS HIGH PRESSURE ACROSS THE DAKOTAS
WITH THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY STRETCHED ACROSS CENTRAL SD. STORMS HAVE
STARTED FIRING ACROSS NORTHWEST SD INTO THE BLACK HILLS AREA WITH
A COUPLE SEVERE AT THIS TIME. STORMS WILL CONTINUE TO DEVELOP OVER
THE NEXT FEW HOURS OVER THE AREA. THE BEST INSTABILITY IS ACROSS
SE MONTANA THROUGH WESTERN SD WITH MLCAPE OF 2000 TO 2500 J/KG.
LOW LEVEL SHEAR IS OVERALL WEAK...BUT IS BEST ACROSS NW SD. WITH
DEEP INSTABILITY...ENOUGH SHEAR FOR CONTINUED SUPERCELL
DEVELOPMENT INTO THIS EVENING...AND PERHAPS AN ISOLATED SEVERE
STORM THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS
ARE THE MAIN THREATS TODAY AND TONIGHT. STORMS WILL AGAIN BE SLOW
MOVING AND HAVE THE POTENTIAL FOR PRODUCING LOCALLY HEAVY
RAINFALL.

LITTLE CHANGE TO THE OVERALL PATTERN TOMORROW WITH UPPER RIDGING
AXIS WEST OF THE AREA. LINGERING STORMS ARE POSSIBLE ACROSS THE AREA
TOMORROW MORNING...BUT A REDEVELOPMENT OF STORMS ARE EXPECTED IN THE
AFTERNOON. INSTABILITY IS PROGGED TO BE WEAKER TOMORROW...WITH
RELATIVELY WEAK SHEAR CONTINUING. SUBTLE WAVES WILL HELP TRIGGER
CONVECTION...BUT ASIDE FOR AN ISOLATED SEVERE STORM OR TWO...SEVERE
WEATHER IS NOT EXPECTED. WEAK STEERING WINDS WILL AGAIN RESULT IN
SLOW STORM MOTION.

&&

.LONG TERM...THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY
ISSUED AT 201 PM MDT TUE AUG 13 2013

MEAN WESTERN NOAM RIDGING TO REMAIN IN THE PERIOD...WITH DOWNSTREAM
MEAN NEGATIVE HEIGHT ANOMALIES LINGERING BUT WEAKENING IN THE
EASTERN NOAM. PATTERN CHANGE WILL OCCUR AS THE NE PAC PERSISTENT
UPPER TROUGH IS FORECAST TO CYCLE...WITH UPPER RIDGING EXPECTED OVER
THE NORTHERN PLAINS FRIDAY THROUGH MUCH OF NEXT WEEK. MID LEVEL
TROUGH AND ASSOCIATED SFC REFLECTION STILL ON TRACK TO PROGRESS
THROUGH THE REGION SUNDAY/SUNDAY NIGHT...WITH CONTINUED CHANCES FOR
SHRA/TS THEN. OTHERWISE...HAVE KEPT THE REMAINDER OF THE PERIOD
DRY...SAVE FOR THIS THUR WHEN THE LAST IN A SERIES OF DISTURBANCES
WILL EXIT THE REGION. FAIRLY WARM TEMPS EXPECTED AS THE UPPER RIDGE
TILTS OVER THE REGION SAT-SUN...THEN AGAIN TUESDAY WITH A RESURGENCE
OF THE WESTERN NOAM RIDGE. THERE IS SOME LINGERING UNCERTAINTY TO
HOW FAR EAST AND NORTH THE UPPER RIDGE WILL BUILD...WHICH WILL HAVE
A LARGE IMPACT OF LOCAL TEMPS/MOISTURE. DOWNSTREAM DEVELOPMENTS WILL
ALSO HAVE AN EFFECT ON THIS PROCESS...MAINLY BEING IF THE PERSISTENT
EASTERN NOAM TROUGH RETURNS...HINTED AT IN THE ECMWF NEXT WEEK
BEYOND THE CURRENT FORECAST PERIOD. BEFORE THE NEXT PATTERN IS
ESTABLISHED...SLIGHTLY PROGRESSIVE FLOW/WARMER TEMPS/AND DECREASING
LL MOISTURE LOOKS PROBABLE IN THE PERIOD. HAVE OPTED TO SIDE ON THE
WARMER SIDE OF MIDDLE GUIDANCE NUMBERS GIVEN THE DIRER
PATTERN...WHICH LOOKS TO REMAIN THROUGH MUCH OF THE PERIOD ATTM.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z WEDNESDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 514 PM MDT TUE AUG 13 2013

TSRA WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AREA TONIGHT WITH LOCAL IFR CIGS/VSBYS.
MVFR CIGS/VSBYS MAY DEVELOP LATER TONIGHT ON THE SD PLAINS AS WEAK
EASTERLY UPSLOPE FLOW REDEVELOPS. OTHERWISE...VFR CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED.

&&

.UNR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
WY...NONE.
&&

SHORT TERM...13
LONG TERM...JC
AVIATION...HELGESON

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RAPID CITY SD
633 AM MDT TUE AUG 13 2013

SDZ001-002-012>014-024>032-041>044-046-047-049-072>074-WYZ054>058-
071-141300-
BENNETT-BUTTE-CENTRAL BLACK HILLS-CUSTER CO PLAINS-FALL RIVER-HAAKON-
HARDING-HERMOSA FOOT HILLS-JACKSON-MELLETTE-NORTHEASTERN CROOK-
NORTHERN BLACK HILLS-NORTHERN CAMPBELL-NORTHERN FOOT HILLS-
NORTHERN MEADE CO PLAINS-PENNINGTON CO PLAINS-PERKINS-RAPID CITY-
SHANNON-SOUTHERN BLACK HILLS-SOUTHERN CAMPBELL-SOUTHERN FOOT HILLS-
SOUTHERN MEADE CO PLAINS-STURGIS/PIEDMONT FOOT HILLS-TODD-TRIPP-
WESTERN CROOK-WESTON-WYOMING BLACK HILLS-ZIEBACH-
633 AM MDT (733 AM CDT) TUE AUG 13 2013

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR WESTERN SOUTH DAKOTA AND
NORTHEASTERN WYOMING.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT

THE CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE AREA TODAY
AND TONIGHT. A FEW STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE...
MAINLY DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS. LARGE HAIL AND
STRONG WIND GUSTS WILL BE THE MAIN THREATS WITH ANY SEVERE STORMS.
STRONGER AND SLOWER MOVING STORMS COULD PRODUCE HEAVY RAINFALL
AS WELL.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY

DAILY CHANCES FOR THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE WEDNESDAY AND
THURSDAY. ORGANIZED SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ARE NOT EXPECTED AT THIS
TIME...ALTHOUGH A FEW STORMS MAY BE STRONG TO SEVERE WITH HAIL AND
GUSTY WINDS.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION MAY BE NEEDED TODAY.

&&

STAY TUNED TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO FOR FURTHER DETAILS OR UPDATES...
OR CHECK OUR WEB SITE AT WEATHER.GOV/RAPIDCITY

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RAPID CITY SD
506 PM MDT TUE AUG 13 2013

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0505 PM     HEAVY RAIN       13 NNE DOWNTOWN STURGIS 44.59N 103.41W
08/13/2013  M1.02 INCH       MEADE              SD   TRAINED SPOTTER

&&

UNR

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RAPID CITY SD
511 PM MDT TUE AUG 13 2013

SDZ013-014-031-032-043-073-140000-
HAAKON SD-JACKSON SD-NORTHERN MEADE CO PLAINS SD-PENNINGTON CO PLAINS
SD-SOUTHERN MEADE CO PLAINS SD-ZIEBACH SD-
511 PM MDT TUE AUG 13 2013

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR EASTERN PENNINGTON...SOUTHEASTERN
MEADE...SOUTHWESTERN ZIEBACH...WESTERN HAAKON AND NORTHERN JACKSON
COUNTIES UNTIL 600 PM MDT...

AT 508 PM MDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR WAS TRACKING
STRONG THUNDERSTORMS ALONG A LINE EXTENDING FROM PLAINVIEW TO
GRINDSTONE TO OWANKA...AND MOVING EAST AT 30 MPH.

HAIL UP TO THE SIZE OF PENNIES AND WIND GUSTS UP TO 50 MPH ARE
EXPECTED WITH THESE STORMS...ALONG WITH HEAVY RAIN.

LOCATIONS NEAR THE PATH OF THESE STORMS INCLUDE...
  WALL...
  PHILIP...
  HOWES...
  BRIDGER...
  QUINN...
  PINNACLES RANGER STATION...
  BILLSBURG...
  COTTONWOOD...
  MILESVILLE...
  MINUTEMAN MISSILE SITE...
  CACTUS FLAT...

THIS INCLUDES INTERSTATE 90 BETWEEN SOUTH DAKOTA MILE MARKERS 86 AND
138...

THESE STORMS MAY INTENSIFY...AND A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH IS IN
EFFECT FOR THIS AREA. BE CERTAIN TO MONITOR LOCAL RADIO AND TV
STATIONS...AS WELL AS LOCAL CABLE TV OUTLETS...FOR ADDITIONAL
INFORMATION AND POSSIBLE WARNINGS FROM THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE.

TORRENTIAL RAIN...WHICH MAY FLOOD LOW LYING AREAS SUCH AS DITCHES AND
UNDERPASSES...IS ALSO LIKELY. DO NOT DRIVE YOUR VEHICLE ON A FLOODED
ROADWAY.

&&

LAT...LON 4451 10149 4398 10135 4372 10210 4403 10278
      4430 10242 4469 10223
TIME...MOT...LOC 2311Z 289DEG 28KT 4457 10208 4414 10197
          4401 10251

CALDERON

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