Severe Thunderstorm Warning 113, NWS Rapid City, SD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION FOR WESTERN SD AND NORTHEASTERN WY
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RAPID CITY SD
611 PM MDT MON MAY 27 2013

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 607 PM MDT MON MAY 27 2013

HAVE REMOVED THE SEVERE TSTM THREAT FROM NORTHEASTERN WYOMING AND
FAR NORTHWESTERN SOUTH DAKOTA. STRONG THUNDERSTORMS CAN BE
EXPECTED OVER THE REST OF WESTERN AND SOUTH CENTRAL SOUTH DAKOTA
THROUGH THE REST OF THE EVENING. LARGE HAIL AND LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN
SEEM TO BE THE MAIN THREATS.

&&

.SHORT TERM...THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT
ISSUED AT 257 PM MDT MON MAY 27 2013

LATEST SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWS LOW PRESSURE CENTERED OVER ERN
CO/WRN KS WITH AN TROUGH EXTENDING NORTHWARD NEAR THE WY/SD
BORDER. SAT AND SFC OBSERVATIONS SHOW A DRY SLOT PUSHING EASTWARD
ACROSS SRN WYOMING AND ARCING TOWARD OUR NE WY ZONES.

CONVECTION THAT DEVELOPED EARLIER THIS AFTERNOON HAS DEVELOPED
INTO A N/S ORIENTED LINE FROM NORTHWESTERN TOWARD THE NRN
BLKHLS...MOVING EASTWARD. WV SAT SHOWS A VIGOROUS SHORTWAVE
APPROACHING FROM THE WEST...WITH MORE THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPING OVER
NORTHEASTERN WYOMING NEAR THE NOSE OF THE DRY PUSH AT THE SFC.
MESO MODELS INDICATE THUNDERSTORMS BECOMING MORE WIDESPREAD THIS
EVENING AND DEVELOPING INTO A N/S ORIENTED LINE THAT WILL CROSS
THE FORECAST AREA FROM WEST TO EAST THIS EVENING. SEVERE STORMS
ARE PROBABLE.

TUESDAY...WEAK HIGH PRESSURE/OUTFLOW FROM TONIGHT/S CONVECTION
WILL PUSH MAIN SURFACE BOUNDARIES TO THE NE/SD BORDER. THIS WILL
BE THE FOCUS FOR NEW STORMS TUESDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING WITH A
SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE TSRA GIVEN FORECAST HODOGRAPHS/SOUNDINGS.
TEMPERATURES NEAR GUIDANCE.

&&

.LONG TERM...WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY
ISSUED AT 257 PM MDT MON MAY 27 2013

LARGE WESTERN UPPER TROF WILL CROSS THE NORTHERN ROCKIES MID-WEEK
BRINGING CONTINUED CHANCES FOR THUNDERSTORMS. SEVERE THREAT WILL
CONTINUE OVER MUCH OF THE AREA WEDNESDAY WITH AMPLE INSTABILITY AND
SHEAR EXPECTED. BY THURSDAY AND FRIDAY...UPPER TROF WILL ENTER THE
NORTHERN PLAINS WITH CLOSED LOW OVER THE DAKOTAS. THIS WILL BRING
CONTINUED PRECIP CHANCES...MAINLY RAIN SHOWERS AND ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS...ALONG WITH COOLER TEMPS. UPPER TROF WILL SHIFT EAST
BY THE WEEKEND...WITH DRIER AND MORE MILD CONDITIONS RETURNING.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z TUESDAY EVENING) ISSUED AT
608 PM MDT MON MAY 27 2013

SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE ACROSS
PORTIONS OF WESTERN AND CENTRAL SOUTH DAKOTA THIS EVENING. SOME
SEVERE STORMS ARE POSSIBLE. CONDITIONS WILL IMPROVE LATE THIS
EVENING AS THE STORMS MOVE OFF TO THE EAST.

&&

.UNR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
WY...NONE.
&&

UPDATE...10
SHORT TERM...10
LONG TERM...7
AVIATION...10

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RAPID CITY SD
336 AM MDT MON MAY 27 2013

SDZ001-002-012>014-024>032-041>044-046-047-049-072>074-WYZ054>058-
071-281300-
BENNETT-BUTTE-CENTRAL BLACK HILLS-CUSTER CO PLAINS-FALL RIVER-HAAKON-
HARDING-HERMOSA FOOT HILLS-JACKSON-MELLETTE-NORTHEASTERN CROOK-
NORTHERN BLACK HILLS-NORTHERN CAMPBELL-NORTHERN FOOT HILLS-
NORTHERN MEADE CO PLAINS-PENNINGTON CO PLAINS-PERKINS-RAPID CITY-
SHANNON-SOUTHERN BLACK HILLS-SOUTHERN CAMPBELL-SOUTHERN FOOT HILLS-
SOUTHERN MEADE CO PLAINS-STURGIS/PIEDMONT FOOT HILLS-TODD-TRIPP-
WESTERN CROOK-WESTON-WYOMING BLACK HILLS-ZIEBACH-
336 AM MDT (436 AM CDT) MON MAY 27 2013

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR WESTERN SOUTH DAKOTA AND
NORTHEASTERN WYOMING.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT

THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS NORTHEAST
WYOMING AND WESTERN SOUTH DAKOTA THIS AFTERNOON AND THIS EVENING.
LARGE HAIL WILL BE THE MAIN THREAT WITH DAMAGING WINDS ALSO
POSSIBLE. IN ADDITIONAL TO THE SEVERE WEATHER...LOCALLY HEAVY
RAINFALL MAY OCCUR.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY

THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED THIS WEEK. THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF
SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER FAR SOUTHERN SOUTH DAKOTA
TUESDAY...AND THEN OVER WESTERN SOUTH DAKOTA WEDNESDAY. LARGE HAIL
AND DAMAGING WINDS WILL BE THE MAIN THREAT.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT ANTICIPATED TODAY.

&&

STAY TUNED TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO FOR FURTHER DETAILS OR UPDATES...
OR CHECK OUR WEB SITE AT WEATHER.GOV/RAPIDCITY

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PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RAPID CITY SD
749 PM MDT MON MAY 27 2013

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0620 PM     HAIL             1 S PRINGLE             43.59N 103.59W
05/27/2013  E1.25 INCH       CUSTER             SD   PUBLIC

0700 PM     HAIL             10 SW DOWNTOWN HOT SPRI 43.33N 103.62W
05/27/2013  E1.75 INCH       FALL RIVER         SD   PUBLIC

&&

POJORLIE

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RAPID CITY SD
758 PM MDT MON MAY 27 2013

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0740 PM     HAIL             4 WSW WANBLEE           43.54N 101.72W
05/27/2013  E1.00 INCH       JACKSON            SD   TRAINED SPOTTER

&&

POJORLIE