Flash Flood Warning 9, NWS Rapid City, SD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION FOR WESTERN SD AND NORTHEASTERN WY
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RAPID CITY SD
227 PM MDT WED MAY 29 2013

.SHORT TERM...THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT
ISSUED AT 226 PM MDT WED MAY 29 2013

WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS AN UPPER TROUGH ACROSS THE CENTRAL ROCKIES
INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS...WITH A STRONG WAVE ROUNDING THE BASE OVER
THE NORTHERN COLORADO PLAINS INTO WYOMING AND NEBRASKA. SURFACE
ANALYSIS SHOWS LOW PRESSURE EXTENDING FROM THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS
EXTENDING NORTHWARD INTO THE CWA. REGIONAL RADAR SHOWS SHOWERS AND
STORMS SPREAD ACROSS THE REGION...AND CONTINUING TO DEVELOP OVER THE
WESTERN SOUTH DAKOTA PLAINS.

RAINFALL COVERAGE WILL INCREASE ACROSS THE CWA OVER THE NEXT FEW
HOURS AS THE SHORTWAVE CONTINUES NORTHWARD. THE BEST INSTABILITY
WILL BE OVER CENTRAL SOUTH DAKOTA WITH MLCAPE VALUES OF 1500 J/KG.
AT THIS TIME...TEMPS ARE IN THE UPPER 60S TO MID 70S ACROSS THE SD
PLAINS...AND THE BEST DEWPOINTS ARE IN THE UPPER 50S TO LOWER 60S
FROM KPHP/KD07 EASTWARD. THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT IS EXPECTED TO
DEVELOP LATE THIS AFTERNOON/THIS EVENING OVER EASTERN PORTIONS OF
THE CWA...WITH ENOUGH SHEAR FOR SUPERCELLS. LARGE HAIL WILL BE THE
MAIN THREAT. ELSEWHERE SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL CONTINUE TO AFFECT
PORTIONS OF THE CWA THROUGH TONIGHT INTO THURSDAY AS THE UPPER
TROUGH WRAPS UP OVER SOUTHEAST MONTANA INTO NORTHWEST SOUTH DAKOTA.

THE STACKED LOW WILL DRIFT ACROSS THE REGION THURSDAY WITH
NORTHWEST FLOW INCREASING ON THE BACKSIDE. BREEZY CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED THURSDAY OVER PORTIONS OF THE WESTERN SD PLAINS...WHICH
COULD FLIRT WITH ADVISORY CRITERIA. MODELS INDICATING STRONG
UPSLOPE SIGNATURES OVER THE NORTHERN BLACK HILLS DURING THE DAY
THURSDAY AND CONTINUING INTO THE LONG TERM. WITH PWATS NEAR TO
ABOVE SEASONAL AVERAGES...THE UPSLOPING/WRAP AROUND PRECIP WILL
BRING THE POTENTIAL FOR SIGNIFICANT AMOUNTS OF PRECIP ACROSS THE
NORTHERN HILLS INTO THE BEAR LODGE MOUNTAINS. WILL CONTINUE WITH
THE FLOOD HEADLINES.

&&

.LONG TERM...FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY
ISSUED AT 226 PM MDT WED MAY 29 2013

UPPER TROF CROSSES THE NORTHERN PLAINS LATE THIS WEEK. CLOSED UPPER
LOW WILL CONTINUE TO SPIN ACROSS ND/NORTHERN SD ON FRIDAY...WITH
WRAP AROUND MOISTURE MAINLY AFFECTING NORTHERN AND WESTERN PORTIONS
OF THE CWA...ESPECIALLY NORTHWESTERN SD...FAR NORTHEASTERN WY...AND
THE NORTHERN BLACK HILLS AREA. ADDITIONAL RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF AROUND
AN INCH WILL BE POSSIBLE OVER FAVORED UPSLOPE AREAS OF THE NORTHERN
BLACK HILLS AREA FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT. UPPER LOW FINALLY SHIFTS
EAST ON SATURDAY...WITH TRAILING ENERGY SWEEPING THROUGH WESTERN
SOUTH DAKOTA. SHOULD BE ENOUGH INSTABILITY TO SEE A CHANCE FOR
SHOWERS DURING THE DAY. UPPER RIDGE FINALLY BUILDS IN BRIEFLY FOR
SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY. CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE
EXPECTED TO RETURN EARLY NEXT WEEK AS ANOTHER UPPER LEVEL SYSTEM
MOVES ACROSS THE NORTHERN ROCKIES AND EVENTUALLY INTO NORTHERN
PORTIONS OF THE NORTHERN PLAINS. TEMPS WILL BE BELOW AVERAGE FRIDAY
AND SATURDAY AS THE UPPER LOW SITS OVER THE REGION. TEMPS WILL
REBOUND TO ABOVE AVERAGE BY MONDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY AFTERNOON
ISSUED AT 226 PM MDT WED MAY 29 2013

SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE TO DEVELOP ACROSS MUCH OF
THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING...ESPECIALLY NORTHEASTERN
WY...THE BLACK HILLS...AND SOUTH CENTRAL SD. SOME STORMS MAY BE
STRONG TO SEVERE ACROSS THE SOUTH DAKOTA PLAINS THIS AFTERNOON INTO
THIS EVENING. SHOWERS AND SOME STORMS WILL THEN PERSIST
OVERNIGHT...ESPECIALLY ACROSS NORTHERN PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA
FROM FAR NORTHEASTERN WY INTO NORTHWESTERN SD. MVFR CONDITIONS CAN
BE EXPECTED WITH ANY HEAVIER SHOWERS THAT COME THROUGH.

&&
.UNR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...FLOOD WATCH FROM MIDNIGHT MDT TONIGHT THROUGH LATE FRIDAY NIGHT
     FOR SDZ012-024-025-028-072.

WY...FLOOD WATCH FROM MIDNIGHT MDT TONIGHT THROUGH LATE FRIDAY NIGHT
     FOR WYZ056-057-071.

&&

SHORT TERM...13
LONG TERM...26
AVIATION...26

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RAPID CITY SD
502 AM MDT WED MAY 29 2013

SDZ001-002-012>014-024>032-041>044-046-047-049-072>074-WYZ054>058-
071-301300-
BENNETT-BUTTE-CENTRAL BLACK HILLS-CUSTER CO PLAINS-FALL RIVER-HAAKON-
HARDING-HERMOSA FOOT HILLS-JACKSON-MELLETTE-NORTHEASTERN CROOK-
NORTHERN BLACK HILLS-NORTHERN CAMPBELL-NORTHERN FOOT HILLS-
NORTHERN MEADE CO PLAINS-PENNINGTON CO PLAINS-PERKINS-RAPID CITY-
SHANNON-SOUTHERN BLACK HILLS-SOUTHERN CAMPBELL-SOUTHERN FOOT HILLS-
SOUTHERN MEADE CO PLAINS-STURGIS/PIEDMONT FOOT HILLS-TODD-TRIPP-
WESTERN CROOK-WESTON-WYOMING BLACK HILLS-ZIEBACH-
502 AM MDT (602 AM CDT) WED MAY 29 2013

...FLOOD WATCH IN EFFECT LATE TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT FOR
EXTREME NORTHEAST WYOMING...PORTIONS OF NORTHWEST SOUTH DAKOTA...
AND PORTIONS OF THE BLACK HILLS...

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR WESTERN SOUTH DAKOTA AND
NORTHEASTERN WYOMING.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT

THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON AND
EARLY THIS EVENING EAST OF A LINE FROM LEMMON TO HOT SPRINGS. LARGE
HAIL WILL BE THE MAIN THREAT. ISOLATED TORNADOES ARE POSSIBLE OVER
SOUTH CENTRAL SOUTH DAKOTA LATE THIS AFTERNOON.

LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL IS ALSO POSSIBLE...ESPECIALLY OVER SOUTH
CENTRAL SOUTH DAKOTA THROUGH THIS EVENING AND THEN OVER
EXTREME NORTHEAST WYOMING...PORTIONS OF NORTHWEST SOUTH DAKOTA...AND
PORTIONS OF THE BLACK HILLS OVERNIGHT.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY

UPSLOPE ENHANCED PRECIPITATION WILL FALL OVER FAR NORTHEAST
WYOMING...THE BLACK HILLS...AND PORTIONS OF NORTHWEST SOUTH DAKOTA
THURSDAY AND FRIDAY. HEAVY RAIN FROM 2 TO LOCALLY 4 INCHES MAY
FALL...WHICH WOULD RESULT IN SMALL STREAM AND LOWLAND FLOODING.

A FEW THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED THURSDAY AND FRIDAY...BUT
WIDESPREAD SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ARE NOT EXPECTED.

GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS ARE EXPECTED OVER NORTHEAST WYOMING AND
NORTHWEST SOUTH DAKOTA THURSDAY AFTERNOON AND FRIDAY.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION MAY BE NEEDED THIS AFTERNOON.

&&

STAY TUNED TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO FOR FURTHER DETAILS OR UPDATES...
OR CHECK OUR WEB SITE AT WEATHER.GOV/RAPIDCITY

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RAPID CITY SD
543 PM MDT WED MAY 29 2013

SDZ024-026-072-300030-
NORTHERN BLACK HILLS SD-RAPID CITY SD-STURGIS/PIEDMONT FOOT HILLS SD-
543 PM MDT WED MAY 29 2013

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR CENTRAL PENNINGTON AND
SOUTHWESTERN MEADE COUNTIES UNTIL 630 PM MDT...

AT 538 PM MDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR WAS TRACKING A
STRONG THUNDERSTORM NEAR BLACK HAWK...OR 7 MILES NORTHWEST OF
DOWNTOWN RAPID CITY...MOVING NORTH AT 10 MPH.

HAIL UP TO THE SIZE OF PENNIES IS EXPECTED WITH THIS STORM...ALONG
WITH HEAVY RAIN.

LOCATIONS NEAR THE PATH OF THIS STORM INCLUDE...
  PIEDMONT...

THIS INCLUDES INTERSTATE 90 BETWEEN SOUTH DAKOTA MILE MARKERS 43 AND
55...

TORRENTIAL RAIN...WHICH MAY FLOOD LOW LYING AREAS SUCH AS DITCHES AND
UNDERPASSES...IS ALSO LIKELY. DO NOT DRIVE YOUR VEHICLE ON A FLOODED
ROADWAY.

&&

LAT...LON 4413 10337 4414 10340 4427 10346 4429 10325
      4412 10326 4411 10337
TIME...MOT...LOC 2343Z 161DEG 8KT 4417 10333

SCHILD

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RAPID CITY SD
549 PM MDT WED MAY 29 2013

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0510 PM     HEAVY RAIN       4 WSW VALE              44.60N 103.47W
05/29/2013  E1.00 INCH       MEADE              SD   TRAINED SPOTTER

            1 INCH OF RAIN HAS FALLEN IN THE LAST 20 MINUTES.

0518 PM     HEAVY RAIN       DEADWOOD                44.38N 103.73W
05/29/2013  U0.00 INCH       LAWRENCE           SD   EMERGENCY MNGR

            WATER REPORTED ON THE ROAD NEAR FOUR ACES CASINO.

&&

JSCHILD

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