Flash Flood Warning 4, NWS Rapid City, SD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION FOR WESTERN SD AND NORTHEASTERN WY
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RAPID CITY SD
704 PM MDT SAT MAY 18 2013

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 658 PM MDT SAT MAY 18 2013

SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA
THIS EVENING. BEST CHANCES FOR SEVERE STORMS WILL BE ALONG A WEAK
SURFACE BOUNDARY FROM ZIEBACH COUNTY THROUGH JACKSON AND BENNETT
COUNTIES. SOME OF THESE STORMS ALONG THE BOUNDARY HAVE BEEN SLOW
MOVING AND PRODUCING HEAVY RAINFALL...SO LOCALIZED FLOODING WILL
BE AN ISSUE THROUGH THE EVENING. AS THE EVENING
PROGRESSES...STORMS WILL SLOWLY SHIFT EAST INTO SOUTH CENTRAL
SOUTH DAKOTA.

&&

.SHORT TERM...THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT
ISSUED AT 203 PM MDT SAT MAY 18 2013

CURRENT SURFACE MAP PLACES WEAK TROF/WARM FRONT ACROSS SOUTHWEST
INTO SOUTH CENTRAL SOUTH DAKOTA. LOW CLOUDS GRADUALLY DISSIPATING
ACROSS THE AREA. ISOLATED TSRA OVER THE BLACK HILLS AND SOUTHWEST
SOUTH DAKOTA. CONVECTION COVERAGE/INTENSITY WILL INCREASE RAPIDLY
THIS AFTERNOON WITH 1000-2000J/KB SBCAPE. SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS
POSSIBLE FROM THE BLACK HILLS INTO SOUTH CENTRAL SOUTH DAKOTA THIS
AFTERNOON AND EVENING.

UPPER LOW CLOSES OFF OVER SOUTH DAKOTA ON SUNDAY...WITH SOME
DIFFERENCES AMONG MODELS. GFS/GEM MORE INTENSE AND A LITTLE FURTHER
WEST WITH 700MB LOW THAN NAM. WIDESPREAD SHOWERS EXPECTED ACROSS
NORTHEAST WYOMING/WESTERN SOUTH DAKOTA AS STRONG THETA-E ADVECTION
WRAPS AROUND THE NORTH-NORTHWEST SIDE OF UPPER LOW. INCREASING LOW
LEVEL FLOW OUT OF THE NORTH AND STEEP LOW/MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES WILL
RESULT IN UPSLOPE ENHANCED RAINFALL OVER THE NORTHERN BLACK HILLS
AND BEAR LODGE MOUNTAIN...ESPECIALLY SUNDAY NIGHT. WILL BECOME WINDY
ACROSS PLAINS OF WESTERN SOUTH DAKOTA.

&&

.LONG TERM...MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY
ISSUED AT 203 PM MDT SAT MAY 18 2013

MEDIUM RANGE MODELS REMAIN IN GOOD GENERAL AGREEMENT WITH
PROGRESSION AND TRACK OF UPPER LOW EARLY NEXT WEEK. WITH THE LOW
STILL PROJECTED TO STALL OUT ACROSS THE NORTHERN AND CENTRAL PLAINS
MONDAY INTO TUESDAY...PLENTY OF WRAP AROUND RAINFALL CAN BE EXPECTED
ACROSS MUCH OF THE FORECAST AREA. THERE IS STILL SOME UNCERTAINTY AT
THIS POINT...BUT 1 TO 2 INCHES OF RAIN SHOULD BE COMMON ACROSS THE
AREA FROM LATER SUNDAY INTO TUESDAY...WITH SOME HIGHER AMOUNTS
LIKELY ACROSS THE NORTHERN BLACK HILLS AREA...WHERE UPSLOPE ENHANCED
PRECIPITATION WILL OCCUR. COOL AND WINDY CONDITIONS CAN BE EXPECTED
MONDAY AND TUESDAY...WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER 40S TO UPPER 50S.

SYSTEM WILL SLOWLY DRIFT EAST OUT OF THE REGION TUESDAY NIGHT OR
EARLY WEDNESDAY...WITH GRADUALLY IMPROVING CONDITIONS FROM WEST TO
EAST. BEYOND WEDNESDAY...THERE SHOULD BE A GRADUAL WARMUP THROUGH
THE LATTER PART OF THE WEEK...ESPECIALLY ACROSS WESTERN AREAS...AS A
WEAK RIDGE MOVES INTO THE PLAINS. WILL GO WITH A MAINLY DRY FORECAST
FOR LATE WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY. SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WILL DEVELOP
AGAIN BY THE END OF THE WEEK...SO WILL SEE CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS INCREASE THURSDAY NIGHT INTO NEXT WEEKEND.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SUNDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 520 PM MDT SAT MAY 18 2013

AREAS OF MVFR CEILINGS AND VISIBILITIES WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE INTO TONIGHT...WITH SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS
EXPECTED THROUGH THIS EVENING FROM THE BLACK HILLS EASTWARD. LOCAL
IFR/LIFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED NEAR STRONGER STORMS. WIDESPREAD IFR
CIGS AND SOME -SHRA WILL DEVELOP ACROSS THE AREA AFTER MIDNIGHT.

&&

.UNR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
WY...NONE.
&&

UPDATE...15
SHORT TERM...7
LONG TERM...15
AVIATION...10

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RAPID CITY SD
502 AM MDT SAT MAY 18 2013

SDZ001-002-012>014-024>032-041>044-046-047-049-072>074-WYZ054>058-
071-191300-
BENNETT-BUTTE-CENTRAL BLACK HILLS-CUSTER CO PLAINS-FALL RIVER-HAAKON-
HARDING-HERMOSA FOOT HILLS-JACKSON-MELLETTE-NORTHEASTERN CROOK-
NORTHERN BLACK HILLS-NORTHERN CAMPBELL-NORTHERN FOOT HILLS-
NORTHERN MEADE CO PLAINS-PENNINGTON CO PLAINS-PERKINS-RAPID CITY-
SHANNON-SOUTHERN BLACK HILLS-SOUTHERN CAMPBELL-SOUTHERN FOOT HILLS-
SOUTHERN MEADE CO PLAINS-STURGIS/PIEDMONT FOOT HILLS-TODD-TRIPP-
WESTERN CROOK-WESTON-WYOMING BLACK HILLS-ZIEBACH-
502 AM MDT (602 AM CDT) SAT MAY 18 2013

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR WESTERN SOUTH DAKOTA AND
NORTHEASTERN WYOMING.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT

SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP THIS AFTERNOON AND MOVE EAST AND
NORTHEAST ACROSS northeast wyoming and western south dakota through
this evening. THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER
MOST OF WESTERN SOUTH DAKOTA. LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WIND GUSTS WILL
BE THE MAIN THREAT. ISOLATED TORNADOES ARE POSSIBLE.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Sunday THROUGH friday

ACTIVE WEATHER is forecast to continue sunday through tuesday.
showers with a isolated thunderstorms are expected sunday
becoming mostly rain showers monday and tuesday.  another
round of thunderstorms is in the forecast for the end of next
week.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION MAY BE NEEDED TODAY.

&&

STAY TUNED TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO FOR FURTHER DETAILS OR UPDATES...
OR CHECK OUR WEB SITE AT WEATHER.GOV/RAPIDCITY

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