Special Weather Statement, NWS Tucson, AZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TUCSON AZ
200 PM MST FRI SEP 6 2013

.SYNOPSIS...MONSOONAL MOISTURE OVER THE REGION WILL ALLOW FOR
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO DEVELOP ONCE AGAIN SATURDAY.
THEN A DEEP LAYER OF MOISTURE FROM DECAYING TROPICAL STORM LORENA
WILL BEGIN TO MOVE INTO ARIZONA FROM THE SOUTH SUNDAY AND LINGERING
INTO MONDAY NIGHT BEFORE DIMINISHING TUESDAY.  A RETURN TO A MORE
NORMAL MONSOON FLOW PATTERN WILL OCCUR WEDNESDAY ONWARD.

&&

.DISCUSSION...FAIRLY WIDESPREAD THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY DEVELOPED
ACROSS THE CWA LAST COUPLE OF HOURS WITH A COMBINATION OF STRONG
WINDS EVIDENCED BY THE DUST STORM NEAR PICACHO PEAK AND SHORT PERIOD
OF HEAVY RAIN WITH INSTANTANEOUS RAINFALL RATES UP TO 2 INCHES PER
HOUR OVER TUCSON AND HIGHER LEVELS IN THE LARGER STORMS.  THIS
ACTIVITY WILL CONTINUE INTO THE EARLY EVENING AS IT GRADUALLY SHIFTS
TO THE WEST-NORTHWEST.

FOR SATURDAY THERE IS A SIMILAR AMOUNT OF MOISTURE ACROSS THE REGION
WITH UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVES APPROACHING THE AREA FROM THE SOUTH
DURING THE DAY.  THEREFORE WOULD EXPECT A SIMILAR RAMP UP OF THE
CONVECTION DURING THE AFTERNOON WITH THE STORMS MOVING MORE TO THE
NORTH-NORTHWEST.  WITH SOMEWHAT HIGHER AMOUNTS OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE
ANY STORMS THAT DEVELOP SHOULD BE MORE EFFICIENT RAINFALL
PRODUCERS.

THEN HERE COMES THE REMNANTS OF TROPICAL STORM LORENA WHICH IS
FORECAST TO CONTINUE MOVING NORTHWARD AS IT WEAKENS.  THE CURRENT
TRAJECTORY HAS THE REMNANT MOISTURE FROM THIS DECAYING SYSTEM MOVING
NORTH ACROSS PRIMARILY CENTRAL AND EASTERN ARIZONA SUNDAY THROUGH
MONDAY NIGHT WITH CURRENT MODEL RUNS PEAKING IT OVER THE AREA DURING
THE DAY MONDAY.  GUIDANCE HAS BEEN REASONABLY CONSISTENT WITH THIS
SCENARIO AND AS A RESULT RAISED POPS FOR THE SUNDAY AFTERNOON
THROUGH MONDAY EVENING PERIOD INTO THE LIKELY CATEGORY ACROSS THE
FORECAST AREA.  THE ABUNDANCE OF MOISTURE WILL BRING WITH IT AN
ABUNDANCE OF CLOUDS AS WELL WHICH WILL CUT BACK ON THE INSTABILITY
DURING THE AFTERNOONS.  THIS WILL ESPECIALLY BE THE CASE ON MONDAY
WITH THE DEEPEST MOISTURE OVER THE AREA.  IF TOO MUCH CLOUD COVER
OCCURS WE WOULD BE LEFT WITH MORE SHOWERS AND FEWER THUNDERSTORMS
RATHER THAN THE OTHER WAY AROUND.  EITHER WAY LOOKS LIKE A RATHER
WET PERIOD OVERALL FOR THE REGION WITH THOSE DETAILS DETERMINING THE
TOTAL AMOUNT AND DISTRIBUTION OF THE RAIN.  OBVIOUSLY WITH THE
HEAVIER CLOUD COVER AND HIGH LIKELIHOOD OF RAIN...AFTERNOON
TEMPERATURES WILL BE COOLER THAN NORMAL SUNDAY AND MONDAY.

IF CURRENT TIMING HOLDS TRUE...THE BACK EDGE OF THIS MOISTURE FIELD
WILL MOVE NORTH OF THE AREA EARLY TUESDAY LEAVING US WITH MORE
TYPICAL AMOUNTS OF MOISTURE FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK.  THIS
WOULD RESULT IN A RETURN TO THE TYPICAL SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS WITH AFTERNOON
TEMPERATURES CLIMBING BACK UP TO NORMAL LEVELS FOR EARLY SEPTEMBER.
CERNIGLIA

&&

.AVIATION...SCT TSRA/SHRA THRU THIS EVENING THEN ISOLD -TSRA/SHRA
LATE TONIGHT INTO SATURDAY MORNING. EXPECT SCT TSRA/SHRA SATURDAY
AFTERNOON. THE STRONGER TSRA WILL PRODUCE MVFR CIGS/VSBYS AND BRIEF
WIND GUSTS TO AROUND 40 KTS. OTHERWISE...CLOUD DECKS THRU THIS
EVENING AND SATURDAY AFTERNOON WILL GENERALLY BE AROUND 7-11K FT
AGL...AND CLOUD DECKS LATE TONIGHT AND SATURDAY MORNING WILL BE
MOSTLY ABOVE 12K FT AGL. SURFACE WIND WILL BE MAINLY ELY/SELY 5-15
KTS THRU SATURDAY AFTERNOON OR 08/00Z. AVIATION DISCUSSION NOT
UPDATED FOR TAF AMENDMENTS.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...EXPECT SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY. STRONG...GUSTY AND ERRATIC
WINDS WILL OCCUR WITH THE STRONGER THUNDERSTORMS THIS WEEKEND.
THEREAFTER...DECREASED MOISTURE WILL THEN LEAD TO ISOLATED TO
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS DURING THE LATTER PART OF THE
UPCOMING WEEK. BELOW NORMAL DAYTIME TEMPERATURES WILL OCCUR SUNDAY
THROUGH TUESDAY FOLLOWED BY A WARMING TREND LATE NEXT WEEK.

&&

.TWC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

VISIT US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...YOUTUBE...AND AT WEATHER.GOV/TUCSON

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TUCSON AZ
227 PM MST FRI SEP 6 2013

AZZ504-514-062215-
SANTA CATALINA AND RINCON MOUNTAINS INCLUDING MOUNT
LEMMON/SUMMERHAVEN AZ-TUCSON METRO AREA INCLUDING TUCSON/GREEN
VALLEY/MARANA/VAIL AZ-
227 PM MST FRI SEP 6 2013

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR NORTHEASTERN PIMA COUNTY UNTIL
315 PM MST...

AT 219 PM MST...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR WAS TRACKING A
STRONG THUNDERSTORM 12 MILES EAST OF TUCSON...MOVING NORTHWEST AT 15
MPH.

WIND GUSTS UP TO 50 MPH ARE EXPECTED WITH THIS STORM...ALONG WITH A
PERIOD HEAVY RAIN AND FREQUENT DANGEROUS LIGHTNING.

AREAS AFFECTED BY THIS STORM INCLUDE...SEVEN FALLS...SABINO CANYON
AREA...CATALINA FOOTHILLS AND CATALINA STATE PARK.

IF THREATENING WEATHER APPROACHES YOUR AREA...TAKE SHELTER IN A
STURDY BUILDING.

LAT...LON 3232 11110 3251 11098 3229 11062 3216 11072
TIME...MOT...LOC 2127Z 119DEG 14KT 3226 11077

CERNIGLIA

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TUCSON AZ
253 PM MST FRI SEP 6 2013

AZZ504-062230-
TUCSON METRO AREA INCLUDING TUCSON/GREEN VALLEY/MARANA/VAIL AZ-
253 PM MST FRI SEP 6 2013

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR NORTHEASTERN PIMA COUNTY UNTIL
330 PM MST...

AT 247 PM MST...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR WAS TRACKING A
STRONG THUNDERSTORM NEAR TUCSON...MOVING NORTHWEST AT 15 MPH.

WIND GUSTS UP TO 50 MPH ARE EXPECTED WITH THIS STORM...ALONG WITH
HEAVY RAIN...SMALL HAIL AND FREQUENT DANGEROUS LIGHTNING.
SIGNIFICANT RUNOFF IS ALSO POSSIBLE WITH THIS STORM.

AREAS AFFECTED BY THIS STORM INCLUDE...NORTHWEST TUCSON...FLOWING
WELLS AND SAGUARO NATIONAL PARK WEST.

IF THREATENING WEATHER APPROACHES YOUR AREA...TAKE SHELTER IN A
STURDY BUILDING.

LAT...LON 3227 11122 3245 11113 3230 11083 3218 11089
TIME...MOT...LOC 2153Z 114DEG 11KT 3226 11096

CERNIGLIA

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TUCSON AZ
308 PM MST FRI SEP 6 2013

AZZ502>504-062300-
TOHONO O'ODHAM NATION INCLUDING SELLS AZ-TUCSON METRO AREA INCLUDING
TUCSON/GREEN VALLEY/MARANA/VAIL AZ-UPPER SANTA CRUZ RIVER AND ALTAR
VALLEYS INCLUDING NOGALES AZ-
308 PM MST FRI SEP 6 2013

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR CENTRAL PIMA COUNTY UNTIL 400 PM
MST...

AT 300 PM MST...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR WAS TRACKING A
STRONG THUNDERSTORM 6 MILES SOUTHEAST OF THREE POINTS...OR 16 MILES
NORTHWEST OF GREEN VALLEY...MOVING WEST AT 10 MPH.

HAIL UP TO ONE-HALF INCH IN DIAMETER AND WIND GUSTS UP TO 50 MPH ARE
EXPECTED WITH THIS STORM...ALONG WITH HEAVY RAIN.

AREAS AFFECTED BY THIS STORM INCLUDE...THREE POINTS.

LAT...LON 3202 11144 3221 11127 3209 11108 3191 11112
TIME...MOT...LOC 2208Z 102DEG 7KT 3202 11121

MEYER

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TUCSON AZ
336 PM MST FRI SEP 06 2013

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0235 PM     TSTM WND DMG     5 ESE SABINO CANYON     32.30N 110.73W
09/06/2013                   PIMA               AZ   TRAINED SPOTTER

            BARN ROOF BLOWN OFF BY STRONG WINDS. LIGHTNING STRUCK
            PWR POLE WITH ELECTRICAL LINES DOWN. HEAVY RAINFALL WITH
            VIS TO GREATER THAN 1 4 MILE IN RAIN. FIRST RESPONDERS
            ON SITE.

&&

EVENT NUMBER TWC1300110

CERNIGLIA

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TUCSON AZ
348 PM MST FRI SEP 6 2013

AZZ502-062330-
TOHONO O'ODHAM NATION INCLUDING SELLS AZ-
348 PM MST FRI SEP 6 2013

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR NORTHERN PIMA COUNTY UNTIL 430 PM
MST...

AT 342 PM MST...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR WAS TRACKING A
STRONG THUNDERSTORM 6 MILES SOUTHWEST OF SANTA ROSA...OR 29 MILES
NORTHWEST OF SELLS...MOVING WEST AT 15 MPH.

HAIL UP TO THE SIZE OF PENNIES AND WIND GUSTS UP TO 50 MPH ARE
EXPECTED WITH THIS STORM...ALONG WITH HEAVY RAIN.

AREAS AFFECTED BY THIS STORM INCLUDE...VENTANA AND VAYA CHIN.

LAT...LON 3251 11226 3251 11225 3250 11221 3236 11194
      3219 11203 3229 11238
TIME...MOT...LOC 2248Z 071DEG 14KT 3227 11215

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