Special Weather Statement, NWS Tucson, AZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TUCSON AZ
900 AM MST MON AUG 12 2013

.SYNOPSIS...DRYING AGAIN TO START THE WEEK WITH FEWER THUNDERSTORMS.
SOME MOISTURE WILL MOVE BACK INTO SOUTHEAST ARIZONA AROUND WEDNESDAY
FOR A CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS THE SECOND HALF OF THE WEEK.

&&

.DISCUSSION...MOISTURE TRENDS FALLING AGAIN THIS MORNING AS EXPECTED
WITH A DRY WESTERLY FLOW PUSHING PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES BACK
BELOW 1 INCH FOR MOST OF SOUTHEAST ARIZONA. SURFACE DEWPTS WILL HAVE
ROOM TO FALL CONSIDERABLY THIS AFTERNOON. LIMITED THUNDERSTORM
ACTIVITY TODAY AND TUESDAY...WELL BELOW NORMAL FOR MID AUGUST.

WATER VAPOR IMAGERY THIS MORNING SHOWING THE STRONG EASTERLY IMPULSE
FROM THE GULF OF MEXICO MADE RAPID PROGRESS ACROSS CENTRAL MEXICO
LAST NIGHT. LARGE COMPLEX NEAR THE MOUTH OF THE GULF OF CALIFORNIA
LATE LAST NIGHT WITH ANOTHER LARGE COMPLEX NEAR FAR SOUTHERN SONORA
PUSHING INTO THE SOUTHERN GULF.

WITH THE LARGER SCALE FLOW WEAKENING CONSIDERABLY AS THE HIGH
RECONSOLIDATES OVER SOUTHERN ARIZONA AND NORTHWEST MEXICO...WE
SHOULD SEE A MOISTURE INCREASE ASSISTED BY A SURGE FROM THE SOUTH
SOMETIME BY LATE TUESDAY NIGHT OR WEDNESDAY MORNING. EVEN WITH SOME
RETURNING MOISTURE FOR A BETTER CHANCE OF STORMS THE SECOND HALF OF
THE WEEK...THE RELATIVELY WARM MID LEVELS WITH THE PROXIMITY OF THE
HIGH CENTER WILL BE AN INHIBITING FACTOR. WE'LL START TO INCREASE
THUNDERSTORM COVERAGE AGAIN BY LATE WEDNESDAY OR WEDNESDAY
NIGHT...BUT STILL NOT UP TO NORMAL LEVELS FOR MUCH OF THE AREA.

&&

.AVIATION...ISOLD TSRA/SHRA MOSTLY EAST OF A KSAD-KFHU LINE THIS
AFTERNOON AND THIS EVENING. OTHERWISE...DRY CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL
THRU TUESDAY MORNING OR 13/15Z. MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES THIS MORNING AND
LATE TONIGHT WITH SCT-BKN CLOUDS MOSTLY AT 8-12K FT AGL THIS
AFTERNOON AND THIS EVENING. SURFACE WIND GENERALLY LESS THAN 10 KTS
THRU EARLY TUESDAY MORNING. AVIATION DISCUSSION NOT UPDATED FOR TAF
AMENDMENTS.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS GRAHAM...GREENLEE
AND COCHISE COUNTIES EAST OF TUCSON THIS AFTERNOON AND THIS EVENING
WITH DRY CONDITIONS ELSEWHERE. EXPECT ONLY ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS
MAINLY NEAR THE NEW MEXICO BORDER TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND TUESDAY
EVENING. THEREAFTER...ISOLATED TO SCATTERED AFTERNOON AND EVENING
THUNDERSTORMS WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY. OTHERWISE...NORMAL DIURNAL
WIND TRENDS WILL OCCUR THIS WEEK...WITH OCCASIONAL GUSTS DURING THE
AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING HOURS DUE TO STRONG DAYTIME HEATING.

&&

.TWC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

VISIT US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...YOUTUBE...AND AT WEATHER.GOV/TUCSON

MEYER

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TUCSON AZ
1221 PM MST MON AUG 12 2013

AZZ504-507-514-122000-
SANTA CATALINA AND RINCON MOUNTAINS INCLUDING MOUNT
LEMMON/SUMMERHAVEN AZ-TUCSON METRO AREA INCLUDING TUCSON/GREEN
VALLEY/MARANA/VAIL AZ-UPPER SAN PEDRO RIVER VALLEY INCLUDING SIERRA
VISTA/BENSON AZ-
1221 PM MST MON AUG 12 2013

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR EASTERN PIMA COUNTY UNTIL 100 PM
MST...

AT 1212 PM MST...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR WAS TRACKING
A STRONG THUNDERSTORM NEAR INTERSTATE 10 AND VAIL...OR 12 MILES
SOUTHEAST OF TUCSON...MOVING NORTHEAST AT 10 TO 15 MPH.

HAIL UP TO ONE-HALF INCH IN DIAMETER AND WIND GUSTS UP TO 45 MPH ARE
EXPECTED WITH THIS STORM...ALONG WITH HEAVY RAIN.

LAT...LON 3231 11059 3206 11047 3190 11067 3204 11082
TIME...MOT...LOC 1920Z 212DEG 12KT 3207 11067

MEYER