Special Weather Statement, NWS Tucson, AZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TUCSON AZ
935 AM MST TUE AUG 6 2013

.SYNOPSIS...SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON AND
EVENING. THEREAFTER...DRIER AIR WILL SPREAD INTO THE DESERT
SOUTHWEST FOR A DECREASE IN THUNDERSTORM COVERAGE THE REST OF THE
WEEK. THIS DRIER AIR WILL ALSO RESULT IN WARMER DAYTIME
TEMPERATURES.

&&

.DISCUSSION...INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWED EXTENSIVE CLOUD
COVER WEST OF TUCSON UP THROUGH CENTRAL ARIZONA INTO NORTHERN
ARIZONA WITH CLEAR TO PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF SE
ARIZONA. REGIONAL DOPPLER RADAR DEPICTED SCATTERED SHOWERS WEST AND
NORTH OF TUCSON. RADAR ALSO SHOWED TWO WEAK CIRCULATIONS...ONE EAST
OF FLAGSTAFF MOVING NORTH AND THE OTHER OVER SW PINAL COUNTY SLOWLY
MOVING N. UPPER LEVEL TROFINESS OVER THE WESTERN ARIZONA WITH VORT
LOBE ON SRN END NEAR ROCKY POINT. PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES ARE UP
FROM YESTERDAY AND RANGED FROM 1.40" TO 1.65"...WETTEST FROM TUCSON
WEST. 12Z TUCSON SOUNDING HAD AN ONION SHAPE LOOK TO IT WITH
SOUTHERLY WINDS FROM 10KFT ON UP.

HAVE SEEN A FEW THUNDERSTORMS IN THE PAST HOUR NEAR THE VORT LOBE
OVER FAR NW SONORA MEXICO. 12Z UA WRF NAM DID A REALLY GOOD JOB IN
INITIALIZED THE CLOUD COVER OVER THE STATE EARLY THIS MORNING WHICH
IS ALWAYS A GOOD THING WHEN LOOKING AT THE HIGH RESOLUTION MODELS.
SHOULD SEE SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOP BETWEEN 11 AM AND 1 PM
FROM WESTERN COCHISE COUNTY WEST INTO CENTRAL PIMA COUNTY. WITH PW
VALUES RUNNING 125% ABOVE NORMAL...EXPECT LOCALLY HEAVY RAINERS.
THERE IS SOME DRIER MID-LEVEL AIR THAT WILL WORK NORTH ACROSS THE
AREA THIS AFTERNOON...WHICH MAY ENHANCE THE CHANCES FOR ISOLATED
SEVERE WET MICROBURSTS...ESPECIALLY FROM TUCSON EAST. THIS AREA WILL
ALSO HAVE A LITTLE BETTER UPPER LEVEL DIVERGENCE. WILL RUN OUT AN
UPDATE TO THE FORECAST TO HIGHLIGHT THE THINKING ABOVE.

DEPENDING ON HOW FAST THE OVERALL TROF MOVES THROUGH THE STATE THIS
EVENING...COULD SEE LINGERING SHOWERS CONTINUE INTO THE OVERNIGHT
HOURS.

HIGH TODAY WILL BE 5-10 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL...WITH BIGGEST
DEPARTURES OCCURRING OVER WEST OF TUCSON DUE TO CLOUD COVER AND RAIN.

&&

.AVIATION...SCT SHRA MAINLY NORTH AND WEST OF KTUS PERSISTING
THROUGH ABOUT 06/20Z...THEN SCT TSRA DEVELOPING AFT 06/18Z AND
CONTINUING THRU 07/05Z...WIND GUSTS TO 45 KTS NEAR ANY TSRA...AS
WELL AS LOCAL MVFR/IFR CIGS/VSBYS. OTHERWISE...SURFACE WIND
GENERALLY LESS THAN 10 KTS THRU 07/18Z. AVIATION DISCUSSION NOT
UPDATED FOR TAF AMENDMENTS.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...MOISTURE WILL REMAIN IN PLACE ACROSS THE REGION
TODAY...RESULTING IN A CHANCE OF MAINLY AFTERNOON AND EVENING
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS SOUTHEAST ARIZONA. SLIGHTLY DRIER
AIR WILL MOVE IN FROM THE WEST DURING THE SECOND HALF OF THE WEEK
AND INTO THE WEEKEND FOR LESSER RAIN CHANCES. OUTSIDE OF
GUSTY THUNDERSTORM OUTFLOWS...WINDS DURING THE PERIOD ARE EXPECTED
TO BE LIGHT...GENERALLY LESS THAN 15 MPH AND DIURNALLY DRIVEN.

&&

.TWC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

VISIT US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...YOUTUBE...AND AT WEATHER.GOV/TUCSON

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TUCSON AZ
122 PM MST TUE AUG 06 2013

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

1258 PM     TSTM WND GST     1 SSW BISBEE-DOUGLAS AI 31.45N 109.60W
08/06/2013  M64 MPH          COCHISE            AZ   ASOS

&&

EVENT NUMBER TWC1300094

JRG

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TUCSON AZ
130 PM MST TUE AUG 06 2013

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0128 PM     FLOOD            3 SW RIO RICO           31.44N 111.00W
08/06/2013                   SANTA CRUZ         AZ   TRAINED SPOTTER

            LOW WATER CROSSINGS FLOODED. 0.74 INCHES OF RAINFALL
            FELL IN 15 MINUTES.

&&

EVENT NUMBER TWC1300095

CERNIGLIA

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TUCSON AZ
140 PM MST TUE AUG 6 2013

AZZ504-507-514-062130-
SANTA CATALINA AND RINCON MOUNTAINS INCLUDING MOUNT
LEMMON/SUMMERHAVEN AZ-TUCSON METRO AREA INCLUDING TUCSON/GREEN
VALLEY/MARANA/VAIL AZ-UPPER SAN PEDRO RIVER VALLEY INCLUDING SIERRA
VISTA/BENSON AZ-
140 PM MST TUE AUG 6 2013

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR EASTERN PIMA AND WESTERN COCHISE
COUNTIES UNTIL 230 PM MST...

AT 136 PM MST...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR WAS TRACKING A
STRONG THUNDERSTORM ON THE SOUTHERN END OF THE RINCON MOUNTAINS OR
16 MILES NORTHWEST OF BENSON...MOVING NORTHEAST AT 20 MPH.

WIND GUSTS UP TO 50 MPH ARE EXPECTED WITH THIS STORM...ALONG WITH
HEAVY RAIN.

AREAS AFFECTED BY THIS STORM INCLUDE...MAINLY RURAL AREAS OF EXTREME
EASTERN PIMA AND NORTHWESTERN COCHISE COUNTIES.

LAT...LON 3236 11054 3211 11026 3198 11052 3208 11068
TIME...MOT...LOC 2040Z 226DEG 18KT 3209 11052