Alert archive / Arizona / Special Weather Statements in 2013

Special Weather Statement, NWS Tucson, AZ

July 19, 2013

NWS Tucson, AZ issued this special weather statement at Jul 19, 2013, 4:13 PM MST. It was in force for 47 min. No storm report in the archive falls inside the area while it was in force.

The area

The outline as issued.

The facts

Issued: Jul 19, 2013, 4:13 PM MST (23:13 UTC)
Expired: Jul 19, 2013, 5:00 PM MST
In force: 47 min
Issued by: NWS Tucson, AZ

The radar

The Phoenix radar (KIWA), 167 km from the middle of the area, began a volume at 23:12 UTC, the scan nearest the moment this went out.

Open the radar archive at this moment

The archived warnings, watches and discussions in force at that minute are drawn over the scan, this one among them.

The nearest sounding before it

Phoenix, AZ (KPSR), launched 12:00Z, 11.2 hours before the alert went out and 169 km from the middle of its area. This is the routine balloon launch nearest before it, the air the forecaster had in hand, not a measurement taken for the alert.

Skew-T log-p

Temperature in red, dew point in green, the mixed-layer parcel dashed.

Hodograph

The wind turning with height, colored by layer: ground to 1 km, 1 to 3 km, 3 to 6 km, 6 to 10 km.

Mixed-layer CAPE: 324 J/kg
Mixed-layer CIN: -220 J/kg
Mixed-layer LCL: 1734 m above ground
0-6 km bulk shear: 14 kt
0-1 km storm-relative helicity: 4 m²/s²
0-3 km storm-relative helicity: 51 m²/s²
Significant tornado parameter: 0.0
Supercell composite: 0.0

Open this sounding in Storm Lab

The text

As transmitted, in the capitals the NWS used until 2016.

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What forecasters said that day

The local office's own words before this special weather statement went out, as it sent them, from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service text.

NWS Tucson, AZ wrote its last area forecast discussion before this special weather statement went out at Jul 19, 1:55 PM MST, 2 hours 18 minutes earlier.

Area forecast discussion, Jul 19, 1:55 PM MST, 2 hours 18 minutes before

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TUCSON AZ
155 PM MST FRI JUL 19 2013

.SYNOPSIS...LOW PRESSURE OVER SONORA WILL DRIFT OVER THE GULF OF
CALIFORNIA...LEAVING SOUTHEAST ARIZONA IN A MOIST EAST OR SOUTHEAST
FLOW...WHICH WILL INCREASE CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
WITH HEAVY RAIN THROUGH THE WEEKEND.  A MORE NORMAL CYCLE OF
SCATTERED AFTERNOON AND EVENING THUNDERSTORMS WILL RETURN FOR MUCH
OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.DISCUSSION...PLENTIFUL MOISTURE IN PLACE ACROSS SOUTHEAST ARIZONA
WITH PWATS OF 1.5 TO 2 INCHES.  HOWEVER...WARM TEMPERATURES ALOFT
SUCH AS -4 TO -6 C AT 500 MB AND CLOUDS INHIBITING SURFACE HEATING
ARE KEEPING THE ATMOSPHERE FROM SIGNIFICANTLY DESTABILIZING SO FAR
IN SOUTHERN AREAS. CURRENTLY WIDESPREAD SHOWERS WITH LITTLE THUNDER
DEVELOPING FROM TUCSON S.  EVEN WITH LITTLE VERTICAL EXTENT THESE
SHOWERS ARE PRODUCING 0.25 INCH OF RAIN IN ABOUT 20 MINUTES.  OPTED
NOT TO ISSUE A FLASH FLOOD WATCH BUT SOME HEAVY RAIN IS POSSIBLE.

N AN W OF TUCSON...WHERE THERE HAS BEEN LESS CLOUD COVER...ISOLATED
STORMS BEGINNING TO DEVELOP. THESE AREAS MAY ACTUALLY SEE HEAVIER
ISOLATED DOWNPOURS IN STRONGER STORMS THAT COULD ALSO PRODUCE GUSTY
WINDS.

WITH THE LOW PRESSURE OVER SONORA AND ATTENDANT CLOUDS DRIFTING ONLY
SLOWLY WEST THEN UP THE BAJA/GULF AREA THE NEXT FEW DAYS...MORNING
CLOUDS COULD CONTINUE TO HINDER ATMOSPHERIC HEATING...BUT IF THIS
HINDRANCE IS OVERCOME...STORMS THAT DEVELOP COULD PRODUCE HEAVY
RAIN. MODEL DEPICTIONS OF THE LOW TRACK AND THE MOISTURE FIELDS TEND
TO FAVOR MUCH OF THE AREA STILL BEING AFFECTED BY CLOUD COVER AND
ONCE AGAIN LIMITING HEATING...WHEREAS SUNDAY WE MAY WARM UP QUICKER
AND BE ABLE TO GENERATE MORE THUNDERSTORM COVERAGE.

FOR NEXT WEEK...A SECONDARY AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE ACROSS
NRN MEXICO...POSSIBLY INFLUENCING OUR WEATHER ONCE AGAIN AND KEEPING
THE CHANCES FOR THUNDERSTORMS AT OR ABOVE CLIMATOLOGICAL NORMALS...KD

&&

.AVIATION...UPPER LOW OVER SONORA MEXICO WILL CONTINUE TO ENHANCE
THE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS SOUTHERN ARIZONA...ESPECIALLY
NEAR THE MEXICO BORDER WHERE CLOUDINESS WILL REMAIN HEAVIER AND
LOWER.  THE CONVECTION SHOULD DIMINISH AFT 20/07Z.  EXPECT
SCT-BKN120 BKN250 WITH AREAS BKN060-080 LCL MVFR CIGS AND VSBYS
MAINLY SOUTH.  EASTERLY FLOW ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH TONIGHT OUTSIDE
OF GUSTY AND ERRATIC THUNDERSTORM OUTFLOWS.  AVIATION DISCUSSION NOT
UPDATED FOR TAF AMENDMENTS.  CERNIGLIA

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...UPPER LOW OVER SONORA MEXICO WILL MAINTAIN A MOIST
EASTERLY FLOW ACROSS SOUTHERN ARIZONA THROUGH THE WEEKEND.  THE
COMBINATION OF THE UPPER LOW AND ABUNDANT ATMOSPHERIC MOISTURE WILL
BRING ABOUT PLENTY OF CONVECTION THAT WILL BE ABLE TO OCCUR ANYTIME
WITH A FOCUS DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS.  STRONGER
THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING HEAVY DOWNPOURS AS WELL
AS GUSTY AND ERRATIC WINDS.  RELATIVE HUMIDITIES WILL REMAIN MOIST
WITH THE NORMAL DIURNAL WIND PATTERNS DISRUPTED AT TIMES THIS
WEEKEND BY CONVECTION.  THE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BECOME
LESS NUMEROUS AND MORE DIURNAL IN NATURE NEXT WEEK AS THE LOW MOVES
FURTHER WEST AND THE AIR MASS BECOMES A BIT DRIER.  CERNIGLIA

&&

.TWC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

VISIT US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...YOUTUBE...AND AT WEATHER.GOV/TUCSON

In the hours before

Special weather statement, Jul 19, 4:13 PM MST, 0 minutes before

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TUCSON AZ
413 PM MST FRI JUL 19 2013

AZZ501-502-200000-
TOHONO O'ODHAM NATION INCLUDING SELLS AZ-WESTERN PIMA COUNTY
INCLUDING AJO/ORGAN PIPE CACTUS NATIONAL MONUMENT AZ-
413 PM MST FRI JUL 19 2013

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR WESTERN PIMA COUNTY UNTIL 500 PM
MST...

AT 408 PM MST...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR WAS TRACKING A
STRONG THUNDERSTORM 24 MILES NORTHEAST OF ORGAN PIPE NATIONAL
MONUMENT...OR 34 MILES WEST OF SELLS...MOVING WEST AT 20 MPH.

WIND GUSTS UP TO 50 MPH ARE EXPECTED WITH THIS STORM.

AREAS AFFECTED BY THIS STORM INCLUDE...ORGAN PIPE NATIONAL
MONUMENT...GU VO...PIA OIK AND KUAKATCH.

LAT...LON 3189 11255 3190 11288 3214 11291 3223 11236
      3193 11227
TIME...MOT...LOC 2312Z 072DEG 18KT 3210 11245

FRANCIS

The office that day

Everything else NWS Tucson, AZ issued on the same UTC day.

Issued	Product	Office	Counties	Lasted
Jul 19, 4:48 PM MST	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	TWC	Pima	42 min
Jul 19, 4:50 PM MST	Areal Flood Advisory	TWC	Pima	3 hr

Nearby

Special Weather Statements in Arizona, 2013 Every special weather statement in 2013

Sources

The product and its follow-ups from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service and Storm Prediction Center text; the sounding from the Mesonet's radiosonde archive; radar from the NEXRAD Level II archive.