Severe Thunderstorm Warning 48, NWS Tucson, AZ

585 
WWUS55 KTWC 232350
SVSTWC

SEVERE WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TUCSON AZ
450 PM MST TUE JUL 23 2013

AZC009-011-240015-
/O.CON.KTWC.SV.W.0048.000000T0000Z-130724T0015Z/
GRAHAM AZ-GREENLEE AZ-
450 PM MST TUE JUL 23 2013

...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 515 PM MST
FOR CENTRAL GREENLEE AND EAST CENTRAL GRAHAM COUNTIES...

AT 442 PM MST...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR CONTINUED TO
INDICATE A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM CAPABLE OF PRODUCING QUARTER SIZE 
HAIL...AND DAMAGING WINDS IN EXCESS OF 60 MPH. 

THIS STORM HAS PRODUCED VERY LARGE HAIL OVER HIGHWAY 191 BETWEEN 
SAFFORD AND CLIFTON AND CONTINUES TO MAINTAIN ITS STRENGTH AS IT 
MOVES SOUTH AT AROUND 10 MPH. THIS STORM WAS LOCATED OVER EAST 
CENTRAL GRAHAM COUNTY...OR 20 MILES EAST OF SAFFORD.

LAT...LON 3270 10921 3272 10940 3282 10963 3299 10942
      3293 10922
TIME...MOT...LOC 2348Z 017DEG 9KT 3284 10936

$$

CERNIGLIA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TUCSON AZ
130 PM MST TUE JUL 23 2013

.SYNOPSIS...AN IMPULSE FROM THE EAST WILL ENHANCE THUNDERSTORM
COVERAGE WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY...OTHERWISE PLENTY OF MOISTURE
ACROSS SOUTHEAST ARIZONA WITH A CHANCE OF MAINLY AFTERNOON AND
EVENING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS INTO THE WEEKEND.

&&

.DISCUSSION...THIS MORNINGS KTWC SOUNDING CONTINUED TO SHOW A VERY
MOIST AIRMASS IN PLACE...WITH A PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUE OF 1.6
INCHES. MODIFYING THE SOUNDING USING T=97;TD=58 YIELDS A LIFTED
INDEX OF AROUND MINUS 1 AND A CAPE OF AROUND 500 J/KG IF LIFTING THE
PARCEL USING THE MEAN TEMP METHOD...BUT A CAPE OF AROUND 1000 J/KG
IF LIFTED FROM THE SURFACE. THE FLOW ALOFT ON THIS MORNINGS SOUNDING
WAS MEAGER WITH VERY WEAK FLOW FROM THE SURFACE THROUGH AROUND
250MB. THAT SAID...THE STORMS THAT DEVELOP TODAY WILL STRUGGLE TO
SURVIVE WITHOUT ANY MEANS OF ORGANIZATION...SO BRIEF HEAVY RAINERS
THE MAIN CONCERN FOR TODAY...AND MOSTLY IN THE MOUNTAINS.

THE LATEST RADAR IMAGERY SHOWS ISOLATED ACTIVITY HAS BEGUN MAINLY
SOUTH OF THE BORDER IN NORTHEAST SONORA MEXICO WITH A STRAY SHOWER
OR TWO OVER PORTIONS OF SANTA CRUZ AND COCHISE COUNTIES. STILL THINK
THE FOCUS FOR THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING WILL BE BETWEEN TUCSON AND
THE NEW MEXICO BORDER...AS WELL AS BETWEEN TUCSON AND NOGALES.
HOWEVER...WILL BASED MY LATE AFTERNOON AND EVENING FORECAST ON THE
LATEST SATELLITE AND RADAR TRENDS JUST BEFORE ISSUING AFTERNOON
FORECAST PACKAGE.

WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS AN INVERTED TROUGH OVER SOUTHERN NEW
MEXICO AND INTO CHIHUAHUA MEXICO AT THIS TIME. MODELS ARE INDICATING
THAT THIS SYSTEM WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE SLOWLY TO THE WEST OR
NORTHWEST THROUGH THURSDAY WITH A DEFORMATION ZONE SETTING UP OVER
SOUTHWEST NEW MEXICO AND INTO EXTREME SOUTHEAST ARIZONA THROUGH
THURSDAY. AS A RESULT...WE SHOULD SEE AN ENHANCEMENT TO THE ACTIVITY
STARTING TOMORROW AND CONTINUING THROUGH THURSDAY...ESPECIALLY ALONG
THE INTERNATIONAL BORDER. STARTING FRIDAY THIS SYSTEM WILL HAVE
WEAKENED CONSIDERABLY AND TWO CENTERS OF HIGH PRESSURE...ONE TO OUR
NORTH AND ANOTHER TO OUR SOUTHEAST WILL CONSOLIDATE INTO ONE HIGH
CENTER OVER THE REGION...WITH THE MODELS SUGGESTING THAT IT SHIFTS
TO THE SOUTH OVER NORTHERN MEXICO...WHICH WOULD RESULT IN A DRIER
WESTERLY/SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT. IF THIS ACTUALLY OCCURS THEN RAIN
CHANCES WOULD DECREASE CONSIDERABLY. HOWEVER...STILL ENOUGH
UNCERTAINTY TO KEEP ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS IN THE FORECAST BEYOND
FRIDAY.

HIGH TEMPERATURES GENERALLY NEAR NORMAL THROUGH SATURDAY...THEN 2 TO
3 DEGS ABOVE NORMAL FOR SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY. LOWS WILL BE AROUND
2 TO 3 DEGS ABOVE NORMAL EACH DAY.

&&

.AVIATION...VFR CONDITIONS WITH GENERALLY SCT050 SCT-BKN090.  ISOLD
SHRA/TSRA MAINLY OVER THE MOUNTAINS. STORM MOTION RELATIVELY SLOW AT
5 KTS TO THE WEST OR NORTHWEST. HEAVY RAIN EXPECTED UNDER THE
STRONGER THUNDERSTORMS WITH GUSTS TO 35 KTS. NORMAL DIURNAL WINDS
EXPECTED AND GENERALLY LESS THAN 10 KTS THROUGH WEDNESDAY MORNING OR
24/15Z. AVIATION DISCUSSION NOT UPDATED FOR TAF AMENDMENTS.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...BROAD HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE SOUTHWEST WITH AN
UNUSUALLY MOIST ATMOSPHERE. A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
THROUGH THE WEEK ESPECIALLY OVER THE MOUNTAINS AND NEAR THE MEXICAN
BORDER. RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES NOT CHANGING SIGNIFICANTLY THROUGH
FRIDAY. WINDS GENERALLY DIURNAL IN NATURE AND LESS THAN 15
MPH...EXCEPT FOR AN ENHANCED NORTHWEST FLOW IN THE GILA RIVER VALLEY
OF 15-20 MPH THROUGH WEDNESDAY. LONGER TERM INTO NEXT WEEK...THE
HIGH PRESSURE SINKS FURTHER SOUTH...WHICH TENDS TO REDUCE THE SHOWER
ACTIVITY OVER SOUTHEAST ARIZONA.

&&

.TWC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

VISIT US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...YOUTUBE...AND AT WEATHER.GOV/TUCSON

PUBLIC...GM
AVIATION/FIRE WEATHER...GWS

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TUCSON AZ
327 PM MST TUE JUL 23 2013

AZZ509-510-232315-
UPPER GILA RIVER AND ARAVAIPA VALLEYS INCLUDING CLIFTON/SAFFORD
AZ-WHITE MOUNTAINS OF GRAHAM AND GREENLEE COUNTIES INCLUDING HANNAGAN
MEADOW AZ-
327 PM MST TUE JUL 23 2013

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR CENTRAL GREENLEE COUNTY UNTIL 415
PM MST/515 PM MDT/...

AT 324 PM MST...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR WAS TRACKING A
STRONG THUNDERSTORM 9 MILES NORTHEAST OF CLIFTON...OR 36 MILES
NORTHEAST OF SAFFORD...MOVING SOUTHWEST AT 5 MPH.

WIND GUSTS UP TO 50 MPH ARE EXPECTED WITH THIS STORM...ALONG WITH
HEAVY RAIN AND SMALL HAIL.

AREAS AFFECTED BY THIS STORM INCLUDE...CLIFTON AND MORENCI.

IF THREATENING WEATHER APPROACHES YOUR AREA...TAKE SHELTER IN A
STURDY BUILDING.

LAT...LON 3292 10920 3309 10940 3324 10919 3313 10903
      3311 10904
TIME...MOT...LOC 2227Z 039DEG 6KT 3311 10918

CERNIGLIA