Severe Thunderstorm Warning 43, NWS Tucson, AZ

891 
WWUS55 KTWC 200105
SVSTWC

SEVERE WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TUCSON AZ
605 PM MST FRI JUL 19 2013

AZC019-200130-
/O.CON.KTWC.SV.W.0043.000000T0000Z-130720T0130Z/
PIMA AZ-
605 PM MST FRI JUL 19 2013

...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 630 PM MST
FOR NORTHWESTERN PIMA COUNTY...

AT 602 PM MST...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR CONTINUED TO
DETECT A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM CAPABLE OF PRODUCING DAMAGING WINDS IN
EXCESS OF 60 MPH.  THIS STORM WAS LOCATED 6 MILES SOUTHWEST OF AJO...
OR 46 MILES SOUTH OF GILA BEND...MOVING WEST AT 30 MPH.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

SEEK SHELTER INDOORS. EXPECT DAMAGING WINDS IN EXCESS OF 60 MPH...
LARGE HAIL...FREQUENT LIGHTNING...AND HEAVY RAIN WITH THIS STORM.

&&

LAT...LON 3249 11254 3231 11262 3228 11277 3217 11314
      3250 11318
TIME...MOT...LOC 0105Z 081DEG 26KT 3230 11294

$$

FRANCIS

417 
WWUS55 KTWC 200120
SVSTWC

SEVERE WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TUCSON AZ
620 PM MST FRI JUL 19 2013

AZC019-200128-
/O.CAN.KTWC.SV.W.0043.000000T0000Z-130720T0130Z/
PIMA AZ-
620 PM MST FRI JUL 19 2013

...THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING FOR NORTHWESTERN PIMA COUNTY IS
CANCELLED...

AT 618 PM MST...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED THE 
THUNDERSTORM IN FAR NORTHWESTERN PIMA COUNTY HAS WEAKENED BELOW 
SEVERE THRESHOLDS. THUS...THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING HAS BEEN 
CANCELLED.

LAT...LON 3249 11254 3231 11262 3228 11277 3217 11314
      3250 11318
TIME...MOT...LOC 0118Z 081DEG 26KT 3229 11305

$$

FRANCIS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TUCSON AZ
155 PM MST FRI JUL 19 2013

.SYNOPSIS...LOW PRESSURE OVER SONORA WILL DRIFT OVER THE GULF OF
CALIFORNIA...LEAVING SOUTHEAST ARIZONA IN A MOIST EAST OR SOUTHEAST
FLOW...WHICH WILL INCREASE CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
WITH HEAVY RAIN THROUGH THE WEEKEND.  A MORE NORMAL CYCLE OF
SCATTERED AFTERNOON AND EVENING THUNDERSTORMS WILL RETURN FOR MUCH
OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.DISCUSSION...PLENTIFUL MOISTURE IN PLACE ACROSS SOUTHEAST ARIZONA
WITH PWATS OF 1.5 TO 2 INCHES.  HOWEVER...WARM TEMPERATURES ALOFT
SUCH AS -4 TO -6 C AT 500 MB AND CLOUDS INHIBITING SURFACE HEATING
ARE KEEPING THE ATMOSPHERE FROM SIGNIFICANTLY DESTABILIZING SO FAR
IN SOUTHERN AREAS. CURRENTLY WIDESPREAD SHOWERS WITH LITTLE THUNDER
DEVELOPING FROM TUCSON S.  EVEN WITH LITTLE VERTICAL EXTENT THESE
SHOWERS ARE PRODUCING 0.25 INCH OF RAIN IN ABOUT 20 MINUTES.  OPTED
NOT TO ISSUE A FLASH FLOOD WATCH BUT SOME HEAVY RAIN IS POSSIBLE.

N AN W OF TUCSON...WHERE THERE HAS BEEN LESS CLOUD COVER...ISOLATED
STORMS BEGINNING TO DEVELOP. THESE AREAS MAY ACTUALLY SEE HEAVIER
ISOLATED DOWNPOURS IN STRONGER STORMS THAT COULD ALSO PRODUCE GUSTY
WINDS.

WITH THE LOW PRESSURE OVER SONORA AND ATTENDANT CLOUDS DRIFTING ONLY
SLOWLY WEST THEN UP THE BAJA/GULF AREA THE NEXT FEW DAYS...MORNING
CLOUDS COULD CONTINUE TO HINDER ATMOSPHERIC HEATING...BUT IF THIS
HINDRANCE IS OVERCOME...STORMS THAT DEVELOP COULD PRODUCE HEAVY
RAIN. MODEL DEPICTIONS OF THE LOW TRACK AND THE MOISTURE FIELDS TEND
TO FAVOR MUCH OF THE AREA STILL BEING AFFECTED BY CLOUD COVER AND
ONCE AGAIN LIMITING HEATING...WHEREAS SUNDAY WE MAY WARM UP QUICKER
AND BE ABLE TO GENERATE MORE THUNDERSTORM COVERAGE.

FOR NEXT WEEK...A SECONDARY AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE ACROSS
NRN MEXICO...POSSIBLY INFLUENCING OUR WEATHER ONCE AGAIN AND KEEPING
THE CHANCES FOR THUNDERSTORMS AT OR ABOVE CLIMATOLOGICAL NORMALS...KD

&&

.AVIATION...UPPER LOW OVER SONORA MEXICO WILL CONTINUE TO ENHANCE
THE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS SOUTHERN ARIZONA...ESPECIALLY
NEAR THE MEXICO BORDER WHERE CLOUDINESS WILL REMAIN HEAVIER AND
LOWER.  THE CONVECTION SHOULD DIMINISH AFT 20/07Z.  EXPECT
SCT-BKN120 BKN250 WITH AREAS BKN060-080 LCL MVFR CIGS AND VSBYS
MAINLY SOUTH.  EASTERLY FLOW ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH TONIGHT OUTSIDE
OF GUSTY AND ERRATIC THUNDERSTORM OUTFLOWS.  AVIATION DISCUSSION NOT
UPDATED FOR TAF AMENDMENTS.  CERNIGLIA

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...UPPER LOW OVER SONORA MEXICO WILL MAINTAIN A MOIST
EASTERLY FLOW ACROSS SOUTHERN ARIZONA THROUGH THE WEEKEND.  THE
COMBINATION OF THE UPPER LOW AND ABUNDANT ATMOSPHERIC MOISTURE WILL
BRING ABOUT PLENTY OF CONVECTION THAT WILL BE ABLE TO OCCUR ANYTIME
WITH A FOCUS DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS.  STRONGER
THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING HEAVY DOWNPOURS AS WELL
AS GUSTY AND ERRATIC WINDS.  RELATIVE HUMIDITIES WILL REMAIN MOIST
WITH THE NORMAL DIURNAL WIND PATTERNS DISRUPTED AT TIMES THIS
WEEKEND BY CONVECTION.  THE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BECOME
LESS NUMEROUS AND MORE DIURNAL IN NATURE NEXT WEEK AS THE LOW MOVES
FURTHER WEST AND THE AIR MASS BECOMES A BIT DRIER.  CERNIGLIA

&&

.TWC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

VISIT US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...YOUTUBE...AND AT WEATHER.GOV/TUCSON

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TUCSON AZ
413 PM MST FRI JUL 19 2013

AZZ501-502-200000-
TOHONO O'ODHAM NATION INCLUDING SELLS AZ-WESTERN PIMA COUNTY
INCLUDING AJO/ORGAN PIPE CACTUS NATIONAL MONUMENT AZ-
413 PM MST FRI JUL 19 2013

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR WESTERN PIMA COUNTY UNTIL 500 PM
MST...

AT 408 PM MST...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR WAS TRACKING A
STRONG THUNDERSTORM 24 MILES NORTHEAST OF ORGAN PIPE NATIONAL
MONUMENT...OR 34 MILES WEST OF SELLS...MOVING WEST AT 20 MPH.

WIND GUSTS UP TO 50 MPH ARE EXPECTED WITH THIS STORM.

AREAS AFFECTED BY THIS STORM INCLUDE...ORGAN PIPE NATIONAL
MONUMENT...GU VO...PIA OIK AND KUAKATCH.

LAT...LON 3189 11255 3190 11288 3214 11291 3223 11236
      3193 11227
TIME...MOT...LOC 2312Z 072DEG 18KT 3210 11245

FRANCIS