Severe Thunderstorm Warning 4, NWS Tucson, AZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TUCSON AZ
200 PM MST MON JUL 1 2013

.SYNOPSIS...EXPECT SCATTERED MAINLY AFTERNOON AND EVENING
THUNDERSTORMS THIS WEEK. THERE WILL ALSO BE A MODERATION IN DAYTIME
TEMPERATURES THIS WEEK DUE TO INCREASED MOISTURE.

&&

.DISCUSSION...SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WERE OCCURRING
ACROSS THE WHITE MOUNTAINS AT THIS TIME. PRECIP-FREE CONDITIONS
PREVAILED ELSEWHERE. MID-LEVEL STEERING FLOW SUPPORTS A GENERALLY
SWLY STORM MOVEMENT INTO TONIGHT. BASED ON VARIOUS MESOSCALE
MODELS...EXPECT SCATTERED SHOWERS/TSTMS FROM TUCSON EWD/SWD INTO
THIS EVENING. ISOLATED SHOWERS/TSTMS TO OCCUR ACROSS WRN SECTIONS.
AS WAS THE CASE SUN AFTERNOON AND SUN EVENING...THE MAIN THREAT WILL
BE DAMAGING WIND GUSTS. AM SOMEWHAT CONCERNED THAT THE 18Z RUC HRRR
DEVELOPS ADDITIONAL PRECIP ECHOES ACROSS ERN SECTIONS LATE TONIGHT.
FOR NOW HAVE MAINTAINED A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS/TSTMS LATE
TONIGHT MAINLY EAST AND SOUTH OF TUCSON.

STRONG HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT WILL REMAIN CENTERED OVER THE GREAT BASIN
REGION THRU WED. UPPER HIGH IS THEN PROGGED TO MOVE SWD INTO ARIZONA
BY SAT. AS WITH PREVIOUS SOLUTIONS...THERE WERE DISCREPANCIES
BETWEEN THE 01/12Z GFS/ECMWF PARTICULARLY REGARDING QPF/S. HAVE
NOTED THAT THE 01/12Z ECMWF WAS SIMILAR TO PREVIOUS ECMWF SOLUTIONS
WITH DEPICTING FAIRLY PRONOUNCED QPF/S DURING THE LATTER PART OF THE
WEEK. GIVEN THIS CONTINUITY...HAVE TRENDED POPS UPWARD PARTICULARLY
WED EVENING AND AGAIN FRI AFTERNOON AND FRI EVENING VERSUS PREVIOUS
FORECASTS. ASSUMING AN UPSWING IN CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY WED EVENING...
THUR MAY HAVE SOMEWHAT LESS COVERAGE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.

THE UPPER HIGH IS THEN PROGGED TO REMAIN QUASI-STATIONARY OVER
ARIZONA AND NEW MEXICO SUN-MON. AMPLE MOISTURE WILL JUSTIFY A CHANCE
OF SHOWERS/TSTMS EARLY NEXT WEEK DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING
HOURS FROM TUCSON EWD WITH LESSER CHANCES OF PRECIP ACROSS WRN PIMA
COUNTY.

DAYTIME TEMPS TUE AND CONTINUING INTO THIS WEEKEND WILL AVERAGE A
FEW DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL.

&&

.AVIATION...VALID THRU 03/00Z...
EXPECT ISOLD TO SCT -TSRA/-SHRA ESPECIALLY THIS AFTERNOON AND THIS
EVENING. MOVEMENT WILL GENERALLY BE NE-SW. GUSTS TO 60 KTS WITH MVFR
VSBYS IN BLDU ARE POSSIBLE. OTHERWISE...VFR CONDITIONS TO OCCUR THRU
EARLY TUESDAY MORNING WITH NORMAL DIURNAL WIND TRENDS. ANOTHER
CHANCE OF AFTERNOON AND EVENING THUNDERSTORMS LATE TUESDAY INTO
TUESDAY EVENING. AVIATION DISCUSSION NOT UPDATED FOR TAF AMENDMENTS.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...EXPECT ISOLATED WEST TO SCATTERED EAST MAINLY
AFTERNOON AND EVENING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS INTO THIS WEEKEND.
STORMS WILL BE HEAVIEST IN MOUNTAIN LOCATIONS BUT SHOULD SPREAD TO
SOME VALLEY AREAS. STRONG...GUSTY AND ERRATIC WINDS WILL OCCUR WITH
THE STRONGER THUNDERSTORMS. THE CHANCE OF WETTING RAINS WILL
INCREASE DURING THE SECOND HALF OF THE WEEK AS MOISTURE INCREASES
ACROSS THE AREA. THE INCREASING MOISTURE WILL ALSO RESULT IN A
MODERATION OF DAYTIME TEMPERATURES.

&&

.TWC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

VISIT US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...YOUTUBE...AND AT WEATHER.GOV/TUCSON

BF/MEYER

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TUCSON AZ
605 PM MST MON JUL 01 2013

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0555 PM     TSTM WND DMG     TUCSON                  32.24N 110.94W
07/01/2013                   PIMA               AZ   BROADCAST MEDIA

            LOCAL NEWS MEDIA REPORTED THAT POWER LINES WERE DOWN
            NEAR IRONWOOD HILL AND GREASEWOOD

&&

EVENT NUMBER TWC1300016

MOLLERE

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TUCSON AZ
622 PM MST MON JUL 1 2013

AZZ509-510-020200-
UPPER GILA RIVER AND ARAVAIPA VALLEYS INCLUDING CLIFTON/SAFFORD
AZ-WHITE MOUNTAINS OF GRAHAM AND GREENLEE COUNTIES INCLUDING HANNAGAN
MEADOW AZ-
622 PM MST MON JUL 1 2013

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR  UNTIL 700 PM MST...

WEATHER RADAR INDICATED AN AREA OF STRONG GUSTY WINDS WITH BLOWING
DUST MOVING SOUTH ALONG THE GREENLEE AND GRAHAM COUNTY LINE...TO THE
NORTHWEST OF MORENCI. THESE WINDS WILL APPROACH 50 MPH IN SOME SPOTS
AS THEY MOVE INTO MORENCI AND CLIFTON BY 645 PM MST. THESE WINDS
WILL LIKELY RESULT IN BLOWING DUST THAT CAN LOWER VISIBILITIES TO
BELOW A MILE AT TIMES...WITH LOCALIZED AREAS BELOW A QUARTER MILE.

AREAS AFFECTED INCLUDE...MORENCI AND CLIFTON.

BLOWING DUST CAN QUICKLY REDUCE VISIBILITY...CAUSING ACCIDENTS THAT
MAY INVOLVE CHAIN COLLISIONS AND MULTIPLE PILEUPS. IF DENSE DUST IS
OBSERVED BLOWING ACROSS A ROADWAY...PULL YOUR VEHICLE OFF THE
PAVEMENT AS FAR AS POSSIBLE TO STOP. TURN OFF THE LIGHTS...SET THE
EMERGENCY BRAKE...AND TAKE YOUR FOOT OFF THE BRAKE PEDAL TO ENSURE
BRAKE LIGHTS ARE NOT ILLUMINATED

LAT...LON 3324 10935 3295 10914 3305 10975 3326 10964

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TUCSON AZ
713 PM MST MON JUL 01 2013

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0705 PM     TSTM WND DMG     SAFFORD                 32.83N 109.70W
07/01/2013                   GRAHAM             AZ   LAW ENFORCEMENT

            SHERIFFS OFFICIALS IN GRAHAM COUNTY INDICATED THAT A
            STORAGE CONTAINER WAS PICKED UP BY THE WIND AND BLOWN
            INTO A GAS MAIN.

&&

EVENT NUMBER TWC1300017

MOLLERE