Severe Thunderstorm Warning 11, NWS Tucson, AZ

234 
WWUS55 KTWC 052011
SVSTWC

SEVERE WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TUCSON AZ
111 PM MST FRI JUL 5 2013

AZC019-052030-
/O.CON.KTWC.SV.W.0011.000000T0000Z-130705T2030Z/
PIMA AZ-
111 PM MST FRI JUL 5 2013

...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 130 PM MST
FOR NORTHEASTERN PIMA COUNTY...

AT 100 PM MST...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR CONTINUED TO
INDICATE A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM CAPABLE OF PRODUCING QUARTER SIZE 
HAIL...AND DAMAGING WINDS IN EXCESS OF 60 MPH. THIS STORM WAS 
LOCATED OVER NORTHEASTERN PIMA COUNTY...OR THE EASTERN PORTIONS OF 
THE CATALINA MOUNTAINS. STRONGEST PART OF THIS STORM WAS EAST OF THE 
CATALINA HIGHWAY. THIS STORM WAS MOVING SLOWLY TO THE EAST AT 5 MPH.

LAT...LON 3251 11054 3230 11045 3233 11075 3251 11074
TIME...MOT...LOC 2010Z 262DEG 4KT 3240 11063

$$

257 
WWUS55 KTWC 052029
SVSTWC

SEVERE WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TUCSON AZ
129 PM MST FRI JUL 5 2013

AZC019-052038-
/O.EXP.KTWC.SV.W.0011.000000T0000Z-130705T2030Z/
PIMA AZ-
129 PM MST FRI JUL 5 2013

...THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING FOR NORTHEASTERN PIMA COUNTY WILL
EXPIRE AT 130 PM MST...

THE STORM HAS WEAKENED BELOW SEVERE LIMITS. MODERATE TO LOCALLY 
HEAVY RAIN...ALONG WITH PEA SIZE HAIL...WILL CONTINUE THROUGH 1:45 
PM MST

LAT...LON 3251 11054 3230 11045 3233 11075 3251 11074
TIME...MOT...LOC 2028Z 262DEG 4KT 3240 11061

$$

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TUCSON AZ
950 AM MST FRI JUL 5 2013

.SYNOPSIS...A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE WESTERN US WILL
CONSOLIDATE OVER THE SOUTHWEST THROUGH THIS WEEKEND THEN EXPAND EAST
TO WEST EARLY NEXT WEEK. THIS RIDGE WITH OCCASIONAL WEAK
DISTURBANCES ROTATING AROUND IT...COMBINED WITH MOISTURE ACROSS THE
AREA WILL PROVIDE A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH NEXT
WEEK WITH GENERALLY WARMER THAN NORMAL TEMPERATURES CONTINUING.

&&

.DISCUSSION...SATELLITE IMAGERY THIS MORNING SHOWED SCATTERED TO
BROKEN CLOUD COVER FROM TUCSON WEST AND NORTH WITH FEW TO SCATTERED
CLOUDS TO THE EAST. THERE WAS ALSO A SMALL SPINNER BETWEEN CLIFTON
AND FRANKLIN. REGIONAL RADAR SHOWED ISOLATED SHOWERS AROUND PHOENIX
WITH MORE ACTIVITY ACROSS NORTHERN ARIZONA. FOR OUR AREA THERE WERE
SOME WEAK CELLS NORTH OF SAFFORD AND NEAR PICACHO PEAK. PRECIPITABLE
WATER VALUES ARE UP VERSUS 24 HOURS AGO WITH VALUES RANGING FROM
1.10" TO 1.60". LATEST GPS SHOWED THAT VALUES WERE SLOWING RISING
OVER TUCSON. AT THE SURFACE...DEWPOINT VALUES ARE UP THANKS TO
OUTFLOW FROM LAST NIGHTS MCS SE OF DOUGLAS...OR S OF NM BOOT.

UPPER AIR PLOTS PLACED CENTER OF UPPER HIGH OVER WRN ARIZONA WITH
VERY LIGHT NLY FLOW OVER THE AREA. IN FACT WHEN YOU LOOK AT THE 12Z
TUCSON SOUNDING THIS LIGHT FLOW GOES ALL THE WAY UP TO 30KFT. AFTER
LOOKING AT ALL OF THE HIGH RESOLUTION MODELS...THE FORECAST FOR THIS
AFTERNOON AND EVENING NOT CLEAR CUT. LOTS OF DIFFERENT SOLUTION
DEPICTED BY THESE MODELS. BOTH 12Z NAM/06Z GFS SHOW SECONDARY UPPER
HIGH DEVELOPING LATER TODAY OVER SW NM. IF THIS OCCUR...FLOW ALOFT
WILL REMAIN LIGHT BUT BE RATHER CHAOTIC...WHICH WILL INCREASE THREAT
FOR FLASH FLOODING STORMS. EVEN WITH THE DIFFERENT SOLUTIONS BY THE
HR MODELS...STILL LOOKING AT A MORE ACTIVE DAY...ESPECIALLY FROM
TUCSON EAST. BELIEVE THAT THE POPS FROM TUCSON EAST ARE A BIT LOW.
WILL SEE HOW THE AFTERNOON STARTS OFF BEFORE MAKING ANY ADJUSTMENTS
TO THE FORECAST. AT THIS TIME...LIKELY WILL LEAN TOWARD NAMDNG5 POP
OUTPUT. HOWEVER THIS IS SUBJECT TO CHANGE BY THIS AFTERNOON.

&&

.AVIATION...SCT TSRA MAINLY FROM KTUS VICINITY EWD/SWD THIS
AFTERNOON AND THIS EVENING. WIND GUSTS WILL APPROACH 45-50 KTS WITH
THE STRONGEST TSTMS. BULK OF TSRA TO END AROUND 06/06Z.
OTHERWISE...VFR CONDITIONS WITH DIURNALLY DRIVEN WINDS TO OCCUR THRU
EARLY SATURDAY MORNING. AVIATION DISCUSSION NOT UPDATED FOR TAF
AMENDMENTS.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT CENTERED OVER ARIZONA EARLY THIS
MORNING WILL EXPAND EASTWARD INTO TEXAS THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF NEXT
WEEK. THE FLOW AROUND THIS HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM IN COMBINATION WITH
ADEQUATE MOISTURE WILL RESULT IN SCATTERED MAINLY AFTERNOON AND
EVENING THUNDERSTORMS. THE BEST CHANCES FOR WETTING RAINS WILL OCCUR
FROM TUCSON EASTWARD AND SOUTHWARD. ONLY ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE
EXPECTED ACROSS WESTERN PIMA COUNTY. THE STRONGER THUNDERSTORMS WILL
PRODUCE STRONG...GUSTY AND ERRATIC WINDS.

&&

.CLIMATE...THE TRIPLE DIGIT HIGH STREAK HAS REACHED 34 DAYS IN
TUCSON WHICH IS 4TH LONGEST STREAK ON RECORD. THERE IS A CHANCE
THAT THE STREAK MAY END OVER THE WEEKEND...LIKE SATURDAY...WHERE
THE FORECAST CALLS FOR 100. STAY TUNED.

&&

.TWC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

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