Alert archive / Arizona / Flash Flood Warnings in 2013

Flash Flood Warning 16, NWS Tucson, AZ

July 25, 2013Cochise County, Arizona

NWS Tucson, AZ issued this flash flood warning at Jul 25, 2013, 2:52 PM MST for Cochise County, Arizona. It was in force for 3 hr. No storm report in the archive falls inside the area while it was in force.

The area

The outline as issued.

The facts

Issued: Jul 25, 2013, 2:52 PM MST (21:52 UTC)
Expired: Jul 25, 2013, 5:45 PM MST
In force: 3 hr
Issued by: NWS Tucson, AZ
Area: Storm-based polygon
Flood severity: None

County Cochise County, AZ

The radar

The Tucson radar (KEMX), 45 km from the middle of the area, began a volume at 21:55 UTC, the scan nearest the moment this went out.

Open the radar archive at this moment

The archived warnings, watches and discussions in force at that minute are drawn over the scan, this one among them.

Did it verify

Not verified. The Iowa Environmental Mesonet's Cow found no qualifying storm report inside this flash flood warning while it was in force. That is not proof nothing happened: reports are thin where few people live.

Cow counts a report within 15 km of the polygon while the warning was in force: a tornado for a tornado warning; hail of 1 inch or more, a gust of 58 mph or more or wind damage for a severe thunderstorm warning; a flash flood report for a flash flood warning.

The nearest sounding before it

Tuscon, AZ (KDMA), launched 12:00Z, 9.9 hours before the alert went out and 84 km from the middle of its area. This is the routine balloon launch nearest before it, the air the forecaster had in hand, not a measurement taken for the alert.

Skew-T log-p

Temperature in red, dew point in green, the mixed-layer parcel dashed.

Hodograph

The wind turning with height, colored by layer: ground to 1 km, 1 to 3 km, 3 to 6 km, 6 to 10 km.

Mixed-layer CAPE: 1053 J/kg
Mixed-layer CIN: -87 J/kg
Mixed-layer LCL: 1357 m above ground
0-6 km bulk shear: 13 kt
0-1 km storm-relative helicity: 25 m²/s²
0-3 km storm-relative helicity: 33 m²/s²
Significant tornado parameter: 0.0
Supercell composite: 0.0

Open this sounding in Storm Lab

The text

As transmitted, in the capitals the NWS used until 2016.

420 
WGUS55 KTWC 252152
FFWTWC
AZC003-260045-
/O.NEW.KTWC.FF.W.0016.130725T2152Z-130726T0045Z/
/00000.0.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/

BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED
FLASH FLOOD WARNING
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TUCSON AZ
252 PM MST THU JUL 25 2013

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN TUCSON HAS ISSUED A

* FLASH FLOOD WARNING FOR...
  WEST CENTRAL COCHISE COUNTY IN SOUTHEAST ARIZONA...

* UNTIL 545 PM MST

* AT 241 PM MST...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR DETECTED    
  THUNDERSTORMS PRODUCING FLASH FLOODING ACROSS PORTIONS OF WEST
  CENTRAL COCHISE COUNTY. MOVEMENT OF THESE THUNDERSTORMS WAS TO
  THE NORTH AT 15 MPH. DOPPLER RADAR RAINFALL ESTIMATES OF 2 TO 
  3 INCHES HAD FALLEN SINCE 150 PM MST. HIGHWAYS 80 AND 82 WILL
  LIKELY EXPERIENCE FLOODING DUE TO THIS HEAVY RAINFALL.

* LOCATIONS IN THE WARNING INCLUDE BUT ARE NOT LIMITED TO
  WHETSTONE...FAIRBANK AND TOMBSTONE

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

EXCESSIVE RUNOFF FROM HEAVY RAINFALL WILL CAUSE FLOODING OF WASHES
AND STREAMS...COUNTRY ROADS...AS WELL AS FARMLAND ALONG THE BANKS OF
CREEKS AND STREAMS.

A FLASH FLOOD WARNING MEANS THAT FLOODING IS IMMINENT OR OCCURRING.
IF YOU ARE IN THE WARNING AREA MOVE TO HIGHER GROUND IMMEDIATELY.
RESIDENTS LIVING ALONG STREAMS AND CREEKS SHOULD TAKE IMMEDIATE
PRECAUTIONS TO PROTECT LIFE AND PROPERTY. DO NOT ATTEMPT TO CROSS
SWIFTLY FLOWING WATERS OR WATERS OF UNKNOWN DEPTH BY FOOT OR BY
AUTOMOBILE.

&&

LAT...LON 3176 11045 3185 10998 3173 10998 3161 11000
      3164 11009 3165 11018 3164 11034 3161 11045

$$

FRANCIS

2 follow-up statements

690 
WGUS75 KTWC 252232
FFSTWC

FLASH FLOOD STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TUCSON AZ
332 PM MST THU JUL 25 2013

AZC003-260045-
/O.CON.KTWC.FF.W.0016.000000T0000Z-130726T0045Z/
/00000.0.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/
COCHISE AZ-
332 PM MST THU JUL 25 2013

...A FLASH FLOOD WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 545 PM MST FOR WEST
CENTRAL COCHISE COUNTY...

AT 323 PM MST...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR DETECTED  
THUNDERSTORMS PRODUCING FLASH FLOODING OVER PORTIONS OF WEST CENTRAL 
COCHISE COUNTY. MOVEMENT OF THESE THUNDERSTORMS WAS TO THE NORTH AT 
15 MPH. DOPPLER RADAR RAINFALL ESTIMATES OF UP TO 2 INCHES HAD 
OCCURRED SINCE 330 PM MST. HIGHWAYS 80 AND 82 WILL LIKELY EXPERIENCE 
FLOODING DUE TO ADDITIONAL HEAVY RAINFALL. THUS...THE THREAT FOR 
MORE FLOODING CONTINUES UNTIL 545 PM MST.

LOCATIONS IN THE WARNING INCLUDE BUT ARE NOT LIMITED TO WHETSTONE...
FAIRBANK AND TOMBSTONE

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

EXCESSIVE RUNOFF FROM HEAVY RAINFALL WILL CAUSE FLOODING OF SMALL
CREEKS AND STREAMS...COUNTRY ROADS...AS WELL AS FARMLAND ALONG THE
BANKS OF CREEKS AND STREAMS.

DO NOT DRIVE YOUR VEHICLE INTO AREAS WHERE THE WATER COVERS THE
ROADWAY. THE WATER DEPTH MAY BE TOO GREAT TO ALLOW YOUR CAR TO CROSS
SAFELY.

A FLASH FLOOD WARNING MEANS THAT FLOODING IS IMMINENT OR OCCURRING.
IF YOU ARE IN THE WARNING AREA MOVE TO HIGHER GROUND IMMEDIATELY.
RESIDENTS LIVING ALONG STREAMS AND CREEKS SHOULD TAKE IMMEDIATE
PRECAUTIONS TO PROTECT LIFE AND PROPERTY. DO NOT ATTEMPT TO CROSS
SWIFTLY FLOWING WATERS OR WATERS OF UNKNOWN DEPTH BY FOOT OR BY
AUTOMOBILE.

&&

LAT...LON 3176 11045 3185 10998 3173 10998 3161 11000
      3164 11009 3165 11018 3164 11034 3161 11045

$$

FRANCIS

398 
WGUS75 KTWC 260024
FFSTWC

FLASH FLOOD STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TUCSON AZ
524 PM MST THU JUL 25 2013

AZC003-260033-
/O.CAN.KTWC.FF.W.0016.000000T0000Z-130726T0045Z/
/00000.0.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/
COCHISE AZ-
524 PM MST THU JUL 25 2013

...THE FLASH FLOOD WARNING HAS BEEN CANCELLED FOR WEST CENTRAL
COCHISE COUNTY...

AT 523 PM MST...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED 
THAT THUNDERSTORMS PRODUCING HEAVY RAINFALL HAD MOVED BEYOND THE 
WARNED AREA IN WEST CENTRAL COCHISE COUNTY. THE THREAT FOR 
ADDITIONAL HEAVY RAINFALL HAS ENDED. THUS...THE FLASH FLOOD WARNING 
HAS BEEN CANCELLED.

LAT...LON 3176 11045 3185 10998 3173 10998 3161 11000
      3164 11009 3165 11018 3164 11034 3161 11045

$$

FRANCIS

What forecasters said that day

The local office's own words before this flash flood warning went out, as it sent them, from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service text.

NWS Tucson, AZ wrote its last area forecast discussion before this flash flood warning went out at Jul 25, 1:45 PM MST, 1 hour 7 minutes earlier.

Area forecast discussion, Jul 25, 1:45 PM MST, 1 hour 7 minutes before

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TUCSON AZ
145 PM MST THU JUL 25 2013

.SYNOPSIS...A DISTURBANCE ALOFT ACROSS THE AREA WILL ENHANCE
THUNDERSTORM COVERAGE AND INTENSITY ACROSS MOST OF THE INTO THIS
EVENING. SOME STORMS WILL GENERATE HEAVY RAINFALL.
OTHERWISE...PLENTY OF MOISTURE ACROSS THE REGION TO PROVIDE A CHANCE
OF MAINLY AFTERNOON AND EVENING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS FRIDAY AND
SATURDAY. A DECREASE IN MOISTURE IS EXPECTED TO LEAD TO LESS
THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH PERHAPS AN INCREASE AGAIN
BY THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.DISCUSSION...IR SATELLITE IMAGERY AND RADAR IMAGERY SHOWS
WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPED LATE THIS MORNING
ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF THE CENTRAL PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST
AREA. COVERAGE IN THE VALLEYS HASN'T BEEN AS WIDESPREAD AS SOME OF
THESE STORMS HAVE HAD ISSUES PERSISTING ONCE OFF THE MOUNTAINS. THE
STORMS SO FAR HAVE BEEN VERY EFFICIENT RAINFALL PRODUCERS WITH 1 TO
2 INCHES COMMON WITH THE STRONGER CELLS RESULTING IN AREAS OF FLASH
FLOODING. NOW WE'RE IN THE PROCESS OF MCS DEVELOPMENT AS COLD POOLS
GET ESTABLISHED. WITH CONTINUED OUTFLOWS AND CELL MERGERS...THE
THREAT FOR VALLEY LOCATIONS WILL CONTINUE INTO THIS EVENING.
MEANWHILE...THE FORECAST IS A BIT MORE UNCERTAIN FOR EASTERN
SECTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA INCLUDING MUCH OF
GRAHAM/GREENLEE/COCHISE COUNTIES AS CONVECTION MORE LIMITED STILL
THERE. WILL MAINTAIN ELEVATED POPS NEARLY AREAWIDE INTO THIS EVENING
WHICH COINCIDES WELL WITH THE FLASH FLOOD WATCH.

FRIDAY WILL MUCH DEPEND ON HOW WORKED OVER WE ARE FROM CONVECTION
TODAY. THE INVERTED TROUGH WILL GRADUALLY SWING TO THE NORTH AND
SOME DRIER AIR WILL MOVE INTO EASTERN AREAS WITH PWAT VALUES DOWN TO
ABOUT 1.25 INCHES EAST OF TUCSON. WE STILL THINK THERE WILL BE
ENOUGH MOISTURE FOR SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS BUT NOT TO
THE LEVEL OF COVERAGE WE ARE SEEING TODAY. BY THIS WEEKEND...THE
UPPER HIGH WILL GRADUALLY SHIFT SOUTHWARD ACROSS ARIZONA INTO
NORTHERN SONORA WITH MOISTURE GRADUALLY DECREASING. THIS WILL RESULT
IN A MUCH LOWER GRADE MONSOON PATTERN BY ABOUT SUNDAY AND MONDAY.
THEREAFTER...THE MID/UPPER LEVEL HIGH WILL SHIFT EASTWARD BY THE
MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. THIS WILL RESULT IN THE FLOW BECOMING MORE
SOUTHERLY AGAIN WITH RAIN CHANCES GRADUALLY INCREASING.

&&

.AVIATION...ACTIVE THUNDERSTORM DAY WITH ABUNDANT CB IN THE VICINITY
THROUGH 25/04Z. FAVORED TIME FOR THUNDERSTORMS TO IMPACT TERMINALS
IS THROUGH 25/22Z...WITH ADDITIONAL SHOWER ACTIVITY AND ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE THROUGH THE 26/04Z. CIGS IN THE MVFR RANGE
EXPECTED WITH THUNDERSTORMS...BUT SHOULD OTHERWISE REMAIN VFR. WINDS
WILL REMAIN GENERALLY LESS THAN 10 KTS OUTSIDE OF
THUNDERSTORMS...WITH STRONG A ERRATIC WINDS NEAR THUNDERSTORMS.
AVIATION DISCUSSION NOT UPDATED FOR TAF AMENDMENTS.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...AN ACTIVE THUNDERSTORM DAY IS ON TAP THROUGH THE
AFTERNOON AND EVENING. HIGH MOISTURE VALUES WILL KEEP FIRE WEATHER
CONCERNS VERY LOW...BUT MAY LEAD TO HEAVY RAIN AND FLASH FLOODING.
TYPICAL LIGHT WINDS FOLLOWING NORMAL DIURNAL TRENDS ARE
EXPECTED...WITH STRONG AND ERRATIC WINDS AROUND THUNDERSTORMS. MOIST
AIR WILL REMAIN IN PLACE THROUGH SATURDAY BUT A WARM AND DRYING
TREND SHOULD BEGIN BY SUNDAY ALONG WITH BREEZIER WEST WINDS.

&&

.TWC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...FLASH FLOOD THROUGH 9 PM THURSDAY
FOR ALL OF SOUTHEAST ARIZONA EXCEPT FOR WESTERN PIMA COUNTY.

&&

VISIT US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...YOUTUBE...AND AT WEATHER.GOV/TUCSON

GL

In the hours before

Special weather statement, Jul 25, 12:29 PM MST, 2 hours 23 minutes before

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TUCSON AZ
1229 PM MST THU JUL 25 2013

AZZ502>504-252015-
TOHONO O'ODHAM NATION INCLUDING SELLS AZ-TUCSON METRO AREA INCLUDING
TUCSON/GREEN VALLEY/MARANA/VAIL AZ-UPPER SANTA CRUZ RIVER AND ALTAR
VALLEYS INCLUDING NOGALES AZ-
1229 PM MST THU JUL 25 2013

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR CENTRAL PIMA COUNTY UNTIL 115 PM
MST...

AT 1221 PM MST...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR WAS TRACKING
A STRONG THUNDERSTORM NEAR THREE POINTS...OR 21 MILES NORTHWEST OF
GREEN VALLEY...MOVING WEST AT 5 MPH.

WIND GUSTS UP TO 50 MPH ARE EXPECTED WITH THIS STORM...ALONG WITH
HEAVY RAIN.

AREAS AFFECTED BY THIS STORM INCLUDE...MAINLY RURAL AREAS OF CENTRAL
PIMA COUNTY.

LAT...LON 3199 11147 3219 11138 3206 11108 3187 11115
TIME...MOT...LOC 1930Z 111DEG 4KT 3204 11130

Special weather statement, Jul 25, 12:44 PM MST, 2 hours 8 minutes before

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TUCSON AZ
1244 PM MST THU JUL 25 2013

AZZ503-504-252030-
TUCSON METRO AREA INCLUDING TUCSON/GREEN VALLEY/MARANA/VAIL AZ-UPPER
SANTA CRUZ RIVER AND ALTAR VALLEYS INCLUDING NOGALES AZ-
1244 PM MST THU JUL 25 2013

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR SOUTHERN PIMA AND EXTREME
NORTHWESTERN SANTA CRUZ COUNTIES UNTIL 130 PM MST...

AT 1240 PM MST...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE METEOROLOGISTS WERE
TRACKING A STRONG THUNDERSTORM 10 MILES NORTHWEST OF TUBAC...OR 13
MILES SOUTHWEST OF GREEN VALLEY...MOVING NORTHWEST AT 10 MPH.

HAIL UP TO THE SIZE OF PENNIES AND WIND GUSTS UP TO 50 MPH ARE
EXPECTED WITH THIS STORM...ALONG WITH HEAVY RAINFALL.

AREAS AFFECTED BY THIS STORM INCLUDE...MAINLY RURAL AREAS OF SOUTHERN
PIMA COUNTY AND EXTREME NORTHWEST SANTA CRUZ COUNTY.

LAT...LON 3179 11137 3191 11118 3171 11109 3165 11117
TIME...MOT...LOC 1943Z 143DEG 9KT 3171 11117

JJB

Local storm report, Jul 25, 1:05 PM MST, 1 hour 47 minutes before

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TUCSON AZ
105 PM MST THU JUL 25 2013

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0105 PM     FLASH FLOOD      3 N CORONA DE TUCSON    31.99N 110.77W
07/25/2013                   PIMA               AZ   TRAINED SPOTTER

            TRAINED SPOTTER REPORTED FLASH FLOODING ON SOUTH
            HOUGHTON ROAD NEAR CORONA DE TUCSON.

&&

EVENT NUMBER TWC1300076

BROST

Local storm report, Jul 25, 1:26 PM MST, 1 hour 26 minutes before

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TUCSON AZ
126 PM MST THU JUL 25 2013

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0115 PM     FLASH FLOOD      4 WSW VAIL              32.03N 110.77W
07/25/2013                   PIMA               AZ   FACEBOOK

            WATER FLOWING QUICKLY ACROSS HOUGHTON ROAD JUST SOUTH
            OF THE FAIRGROUNDS.

&&

EVENT NUMBER TWC1300077

BROST

Special weather statement, Jul 25, 1:52 PM MST, 1 hour before

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TUCSON AZ
152 PM MST THU JUL 25 2013

AZZ507-514-252130-
SANTA CATALINA AND RINCON MOUNTAINS INCLUDING MOUNT
LEMMON/SUMMERHAVEN AZ-UPPER SAN PEDRO RIVER VALLEY INCLUDING SIERRA
VISTA/BENSON AZ-
152 PM MST THU JUL 25 2013

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR EXTREME EASTERN PIMA AND WESTERN
COCHISE COUNTIES UNTIL 230 PM MST...

AT 145 PM MST...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR WAS TRACKING A
STRONG THUNDERSTORM 5 MILES NORTH OF BENSON...OR 30 MILES SOUTHWEST
OF WILLCOX...MOVING NORTH AT 10 MPH.

HAIL UP TO THE SIZE OF PENNIES AND WIND GUSTS UP TO 40 MPH ARE
EXPECTED WITH THIS STORM...ALONG WITH HEAVY RAIN.

AREAS AFFECTED BY THIS STORM INCLUDE...MAINLY RURAL AREAS NORTH OF
INTERSTATE 10 ACROSS EXTREME EASTERN PIMA AND WESTERN COCHISE
COUNTIES.

LAT...LON 3224 11056 3229 11023 3199 11016 3190 11045
TIME...MOT...LOC 2052Z 164DEG 10KT 3205 11029

JJB

Local storm report, Jul 25, 2:40 PM MST, 12 minutes before

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TUCSON AZ
240 PM MST THU JUL 25 2013

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0239 PM     FLASH FLOOD      4 WSW PICTURE ROCKS     32.32N 111.31W
07/25/2013                   PIMA               AZ   BROADCAST MEDIA

            SWIFT WATER RESCUE AT ANWAY RD AND MANVILLE RD.

&&

EVENT NUMBER TWC1300078

GL

The office that day

Everything else NWS Tucson, AZ issued on the same UTC day.

Issued	Product	Office	Counties	Lasted
Jul 24, 5:16 PM MST	Areal Flood Advisory	TWC	Cochise	3 hr
Jul 24, 5:21 PM MST	Special Weather Statement	TWC	Cochise	24 min
Jul 24, 5:43 PM MST	Flash Flood Warning	TWC	Cochise, Graham	2 hr
Jul 25, 9:51 AM MST	Flash Flood Watch	TWC	Cochise, Graham, Greenlee, Pima, Pinal, Santa Cruz	9 hr
Jul 25, 12:15 PM MST	Flash Flood Warning	TWC	Pima	3 hr
Jul 25, 12:29 PM MST	Special Weather Statement	TWC	Pima	46 min
Jul 25, 12:38 PM MST	Flash Flood Warning	TWC	Pima, Pinal	3 hr
Jul 25, 12:44 PM MST	Special Weather Statement	TWC	Santa Cruz	46 min
Jul 25, 1:02 PM MST	Flash Flood Warning	TWC	Pima	118 min
Jul 25, 1:22 PM MST	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	TWC	Pima	38 min
Jul 25, 1:52 PM MST	Special Weather Statement	TWC		38 min
Jul 25, 1:59 PM MST	Flash Flood Warning	TWC	Pima	3 hr
Jul 25, 2:02 PM MST	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	TWC	Cochise, Graham	43 min
Jul 25, 2:13 PM MST	Areal Flood Advisory	TWC	Pinal	2 hr
Jul 25, 2:43 PM MST	Flash Flood Warning	TWC	Pima	2 hr
Jul 25, 3:01 PM MST	Flash Flood Warning	TWC	Pima	119 min
Jul 25, 3:55 PM MST	Flash Flood Warning	TWC	Pima, Pinal	3 hr
Jul 25, 4:02 PM MST	Flash Flood Warning	TWC	Pima	118 min

Nearby

Flash Flood Warnings in Arizona, 2013 Every flash flood warning in 2013

Sources

The product and its follow-ups from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service and Storm Prediction Center text; the sounding from the Mesonet's radiosonde archive; radar from the NEXRAD Level II archive.