Blowing Dust Advisory 7, NWS Tucson, AZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TUCSON AZ
155 PM MST TUE AUG 20 2013

.SYNOPSIS...AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL BEGIN TO WEAKEN AND SHIFT TO
THE EAST. THE PRESENCE OF THIS HIGH WILL STILL MAINTAIN ABOVE
AVERAGE AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES MOST OF THIS WEEK. ENOUGH MOISTURE
AROUND FOR A CHANCE OF MAINLY AFTERNOON AND EVENING SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS. A POSSIBLE INFLUX OF LOW LEVEL TROPICAL MOISTURE OVER
THE WEEKEND IS EXPECTED TO BRING AN INCREASE IN SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS.

&&

.DISCUSSION...SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS HAVE BEEN STRONGER
THAN WE'VE SEEN THE PAST FEW DAYS EARLY THIS AFTERNOON ACROSS
SOUTHEAST ARIZONA. AN AUTOMATED RAIN GAUGE NEAR MT. LEMMON HAS
RECORDED 1.69 INCHES WITH THE STORM THAT WAS NEARLY STATIONARY OVER
THE CATALINAS. WE'RE ALREADY SEEING STORMS GRADUALLY BUILD INTO
VALLEY LOCATIONS WITH THE AID OF OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES FROM THE
MOUNTAIN CONVECTION. STORM MOTIONS THIS AFTERNOON ARE SLOW BUT ARE
EXHIBITING A SLOW MOVEMENT TO THE SOUTHWEST. GIVEN THE INCREASED
MOISTURE AND SLOW STORM MOVEMENT...THE MAIN THREAT WILL BE HEAVY
RAINFALL AND FLASH FLOODING POTENTIAL ALONG WITH SOME STRONG WINDS.
THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD START TAPER OFF DURING THE EVENING HOURS WITH A
FEW RESIDUAL SHOWERS POSSIBLE OVERNIGHT.

THE HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT WILL SHIFT A BIT MORE TO THE EAST ON
WEDNESDAY WITH BROAD EASTERLY FLOW ACROSS SOUTHEAST ARIZONA ALLOWING
FOR THE CONTINUATION OF ISOLATED TO SCATTERED MAINLY AFTERNOON AND
EVENING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. FOR THURSDAY...AN INVERTED TROUGH
WILL BE MOVING WEST TO NORTHWEST ACROSS CHIHUAHUA MEXICO. MODEL
GUIDANCE IS SHOWING SLIGHTLY DRIER AIR ACROSS SOUTHEAST ARIZONA
AHEAD OF THIS FEATURE THURSDAY SO CONVECTIVE COVERAGE WILL PERHAPS
BE A BIT MORE ISOLATED IN NATURE AND THIS COULD EVEN CONTINUE INTO
FRIDAY AS WELL. THEN THE BIG STORY HEADING INTO THIS WEEKEND WILL BE
A SIGNIFICANT INCREASE IN MOISTURE AS A POTENTIAL TROPICAL SYSTEM
MOVES UP NEAR OR WEST OF BAJA. THE EXACT TRACK OF THIS SYSTEM IS
NOT TERRIBLY IMPORTANT. WHAT MATTERS FOR US IS THAT A GULF SURGE OF
MOISTURE WILL INITIATE WHICH WILL FLOOD MOISTURE INTO THE DESERTS BY
SATURDAY AND SUNDAY. WENT AHEAD AND RAISED POPS THIS MORNING AND
WILL MAINTAIN THOSE SOLID CHANCE RANGE POPS FOR THE AFTERNOON
PACKAGE. THE CONFIDENCE IS HIGH THAT WE WILL GET MORE MOISTURE BUT
GIVEN WE'RE 4 TO 5 DAYS OUT THE DETAILS ARE HARD TO PIN DOWN. WE'LL
LOSE A BIT OF OUR USUAL DIURNAL CHARACTERISTICS OF CONVECTION...AND
ONE THING TO KEEP IN MIND IS THE POSSIBILITY OF BEING SO MOIST THAT
IT IS JUST CLOUDY WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS. SO THERE ARE A LOT OF
UNCERTAINTIES TO WORK THOUGH BUT CERTAINLY THE POTENTIAL IS THERE
FOR WIDESPREAD RAINFALL THIS WEEKEND.

&&

.AVIATION...SCT TSRA/SHRA THRU THIS EVENING THEN ISOLD -TSRA/-SHRA
LATE TONIGHT. DRY CONDITIONS EXPECTED WEDNESDAY MORNING FOLLOWED BY
SCT TSRA/SHRA WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. THE STRONGER TSRA WILL PRODUCE
MVFR CIGS/VSBYS...AND POTENTIALLY WIND GUSTS TO AROUND 45 KTS.
OTHERWISE...SCT-BKN AFTERNOON AND EVENING CLOUD BASES AROUND 8-12K
FT AGL WITH MORNING CLOUD BASES MOSTLY ABOVE 12K FT AGL...AND
SURFACE WIND GENERALLY LESS THAN 10 KTS THRU WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON OR
22/00Z. AVIATION DISCUSSION NOT UPDATED FOR TAF AMENDMENTS.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...EXPECT ISOLATED TO SCATTERED MAINLY AFTERNOON AND
EVENING THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH FRIDAY. THEREAFTER...MOISTURE WILL
INCREASE THIS WEEKEND FOR MORE WIDESPREAD COVERAGE OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS. OTHERWISE...ABOVE NORMAL DAYTIME TEMPERATURES WILL
CONTINUE THROUGH FRIDAY ALONG WITH NORMAL DIURNAL WIND TRENDS. A
COOLING TREND WILL OCCUR THIS WEEKEND.

&&

.TWC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

VISIT US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...YOUTUBE...AND AT WEATHER.GOV/TUCSON

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TUCSON AZ
216 PM MST TUE AUG 20 2013

AZZ507-513-202200-
DRAGOON/MULE/HUACHUCA AND SANTA RITA MOUNTAINS INCLUDING
BISBEE/CANELO HILLS/MADERA CANYON AZ-UPPER SAN PEDRO RIVER VALLEY
INCLUDING SIERRA VISTA/BENSON AZ-
216 PM MST TUE AUG 20 2013

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR WESTERN COCHISE COUNTY UNTIL 300
PM MST...

AT 209 PM MST...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR WAS TRACKING A
STRONG THUNDERSTORM 9 MILES SOUTH OF BENSON...OR 20 MILES NORTH OF
SIERRA VISTA. THIS STORM WAS NEARLY STATIONARY.

HAIL UP TO ONE-HALF INCH IN DIAMETER AND WIND GUSTS UP TO 50 MPH ARE
EXPECTED WITH THIS STORM.

AREAS AFFECTED BY THIS STORM INCLUDE...KARTCHNER CAVERNS STATE
PARK...FAIRBANK AND WHETSTONE.

LAT...LON 3167 11034 3198 11042 3201 11021 3172 11007
TIME...MOT...LOC 2116Z 043DEG 2KT 3184 11025

FRANCIS

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TUCSON AZ
220 PM MST TUE AUG 20 2013

AZZ504-514-202200-
SANTA CATALINA AND RINCON MOUNTAINS INCLUDING MOUNT
LEMMON/SUMMERHAVEN AZ-TUCSON METRO AREA INCLUDING TUCSON/GREEN
VALLEY/MARANA/VAIL AZ-
220 PM MST TUE AUG 20 2013

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR NORTHEASTERN PIMA COUNTY UNTIL
300 PM MST...

AT 214 PM MST...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR WAS TRACKING A
STRONG THUNDERSTORM NEAR ORO VALLEY...MOVING SOUTH AT 10 MPH.

HAIL UP TO ONE-HALF INCH IN DIAMETER AND WIND GUSTS UP TO 50 MPH ARE
EXPECTED WITH THIS STORM.

AREAS AFFECTED BY THIS STORM INCLUDE ORO VALLEY AND CATALINA.

LAT...LON 3234 11081 3232 11105 3250 11109 3250 11088
TIME...MOT...LOC 2120Z 345DEG 10KT 3235 11093

FRANCIS

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TUCSON AZ
252 PM MST TUE AUG 20 2013

AZZ508-512-202230-
CHIRICAHUA MOUNTAINS INCLUDING CHIRICAHUA NATIONAL MONUMENT
AZ-EASTERN COCHISE COUNTY BELOW 5000 FEET INCLUDING DOUGLAS/WILLCOX
AZ-
252 PM MST TUE AUG 20 2013

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR SOUTHERN COCHISE COUNTY UNTIL 330
PM MST...

AT 242 PM MST...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR WAS TRACKING A
STRONG THUNDERSTORM 7 MILES NORTHEAST OF DOUGLAS...MOVING WEST AT 5
MPH.

HAIL UP TO ONE-HALF INCH IN DIAMETER AND WIND GUSTS UP TO 50 MPH ARE
EXPECTED WITH THIS STORM.

AREAS AFFECTED BY THIS STORM INCLUDE...DOUGLAS...PIRTLEVILLE AND
BISBEE-DOUGLAS AIRPORT.

LAT...LON 3134 10968 3155 10971 3154 10942 3134 10934
TIME...MOT...LOC 2152Z 069DEG 4KT 3143 10949

FRANCIS

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TUCSON AZ
254 PM MST TUE AUG 20 2013

AZZ502-202245-
TOHONO O'ODHAM NATION INCLUDING SELLS AZ-
254 PM MST TUE AUG 20 2013

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR SOUTHERN PIMA COUNTY UNTIL 345 PM
MST...

AT 242 PM MST...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR WAS TRACKING A
STRONG THUNDERSTORM 12 MILES SOUTH OF SELLS...MOVING WEST AT 5 MPH.

HAIL UP TO ONE-HALF INCH IN DIAMETER AND WIND GUSTS UP TO 50 MPH ARE
EXPECTED WITH THIS STORM.

AREAS AFFECTED BY THIS STORM INCLUDE...VAMORI AND COWLIC.

LAT...LON 3168 11212 3195 11212 3192 11182 3157 11175
TIME...MOT...LOC 2154Z 091DEG 3KT 3174 11192

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