Special Weather Statement, NWS Tulsa, OK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
319 PM CDT SAT OCT 12 2013

.DISCUSSION...
FRONT IS CURRENTLY DRAPED FROM NW AR INTO SCNTRL OK...WITH A
AGITATED CU FIELD SOUTH OF THE BOUNDARY. NOT MUCH OF A CAP IS LEFT
AND HAVE RECENTLY SEEN A FEW ECHO DEVELOP ACROSS SE OK...SO EXPECT
SOME FURTHER DEVELOPMENT INTO THE LATE AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING. A
FEW OF THE STRONGER STORMS MAY PRODUCE HAIL AND GUSTY WINDS.

BULK OF THE BEST MOISTURE WILL BE PUSHED A LITTLE FARTHER S BY
SUNDAY...ALTHOUGH HAVE MAINTAINED SOME LOW END POPS MAINLY FOR SE
OK.

UPPER LOW ACROSS THE PAC NW AT THIS TIME WILL DROP INTO THE GREAT
BASIN LATE TOMORROW..THEN EVENTUALLY EJECT INTO THE PLAINS. DEEP
WAA PATTERN WILL DEVELOP ACROSS THE SRN PLAINS AHEAD OF THE
TROF...SETTING THE STAGE FOR A SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL EVENT FOR THE
FORECAST AREA. MAY SEE SOME ACTIVITY DEVELOP/MOVE INTO PARTS OF ERN
OK LATER SUNDAY NIGHT...BUT BEST CHANCES COME MONDAY/MONDAY NIGHT AS
COLD FRONT APPROACHES THE REGION. FORECAST PRECIP WATER AMOUNTS AT
OR ABOVE 1.5 INCHES SUGGESTS HEAVY RAINFALL...WITH MUCH OF THE AREA
SEEING 1-2 INCHES ALONG WITH LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS.

PRECIP SHOULD LINGER INTO TUESDAY...WITH COLD FRONT EVENTUALLY
PUSHING THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA DURING THE DAY. WILL BE
SEASONALLY COOL DAY...AND COULD EVEN SEE STEADY OR SLOWLY FALLING
TEMPS BEHIND THE FRONT.

REST OF THE WEEK LOOKS MOSTLY QUIET AND COOL...ALTHOUGH WILL HAVE
SOME LOW POPS IN FOR SOME LIGHT RAIN/SHOWERS ON WEDNESDAY AS A FAST
MOVING WAVE ZIPS ACROSS. LONG RANGE MODELS IN SOME DISAGREEMENT LATE
IN THE FORECAST...WITH THE ECMWF SUGGESTING ADDITIONAL PRECIP FRIDAY
NIGHT GOING INTO THE WEEKEND. HAVE STUCK WITH SLIGHT CHANCE POPS FOR
NOW UNTIL THE SITUATION BECOMES MORE CLEAR.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TUL   53  76  56  70 /  10  10  30  80
FSM   60  80  57  74 /  20  10  20  50
MLC   56  79  59  71 /  20  30  40  90
BVO   47  75  53  70 /  10  10  30  80
FYV   51  75  50  73 /  20  10  20  50
BYV   51  73  51  72 /  10  10  10  30
MKO   54  78  58  70 /  20  20  30  90
MIO   50  74  52  73 /  10  10  20  60
F10   54  78  58  70 /  20  20  40  90
HHW   64  81  61  73 /  30  30  50  80

&&

.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...NONE.
AR...NONE.
&&

SHORT TERM...23
LONG TERM....18

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
121 PM CDT SAT OCT 12 2013

ARZ001-002-010-011-019-020-029-OKZ049-053>076-131000-
ADAIR OK-BENTON AR-CARROLL AR-CHEROKEE OK-CHOCTAW OK-CRAIG OK-
CRAWFORD AR-CREEK OK-DELAWARE OK-FRANKLIN AR-HASKELL OK-LATIMER OK-
LE FLORE OK-MADISON AR-MAYES OK-MCINTOSH OK-MUSKOGEE OK-NOWATA OK-
OKFUSKEE OK-OKMULGEE OK-OSAGE OK-OTTAWA OK-PAWNEE OK-PITTSBURG OK-
PUSHMATAHA OK-ROGERS OK-SEBASTIAN AR-SEQUOYAH OK-TULSA OK-WAGONER OK-
WASHINGTON OK-WASHINGTON AR-
121 PM CDT SAT OCT 12 2013

THIS OUTLOOK IS FOR NORTHWEST AND WEST CENTRAL ARKANSAS AS WELL AS
MUCH OF EASTERN OKLAHOMA.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT.

SEVERE THUNDERSTORM.
	RISK...LIMITED.
	AREA...SOUTHEAST OKLAHOMA AND WEST CENTRAL ARKANSAS.
	ONSET...MID AFTERNOON.

SIGNIFICANT WINDS.
	RISK...LIMITED.
	AREA...NORTHEAST OKLAHOMA.
	ONSET...ONGOING.

DISCUSSION...
A COLD FRONT CONTINUES TO SLOWLY PUSH ACROSS SOUTHEAST OKLAHOMA
AND FAR NORTHWEST ARKANSAS THIS AFTERNOON. THE ATMOSPHERE
SOUTHEAST OF THE FRONT REMAINS MOIST AND WILL BECOME A BIT MORE
UNSTABLE THROUGH THE AFTERNOON...LEADING TO THE POSSIBILITY OF
THUNDERSTORMS REDEVELOPING ALONG THE FRONT. THERE WILL BE A
LIMITED THREAT OF LARGE HAIL OR DAMAGING WINDS WITH THESE STORMS
THROUGH THE EVENING.

NORTH WINDS WILL OCCASIONALLY GUST TO 25 MPH THIS AFTERNOON ACROSS
NORTHEAST OKLAHOMA.

SPOTTER AND EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT ACTION STATEMENT...
LOCAL SPOTTER ACTIVATION MAY BE NEEDED.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY.
SUNDAY...THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL.
MONDAY...THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL...HEAVY RAIN POTENTIAL.
TUESDAY...THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL.
WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...NO HAZARDS.

EXTENDED DISCUSSION...
AFTER A RELATIVE LULL IN STORM CHANCES DURING THE DAY
SUNDAY...CHANCES WILL RAMP RIGHT BACK UP BY LATE SUNDAY NIGHT AS
THE NEXT STORM SYSTEM ORGANIZES TO OUR WEST. WIDESPREAD RAIN AND
STORMS...SOME HEAVY AT TIMES...WILL SPREAD ACROSS THE REGION ON
MONDAY AND CONTINUE INTO TUESDAY. WIDESPREAD 1 TO 2 INCH AMOUNTS
ARE EXPECTED...LOCALLY UP TO 4 INCHES POSSIBLE. THIS COULD YIELD
SOME FLOODING POTENTIAL. STORM CHANCES WILL GRADUALLY TAPER OFF
TUESDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY WEDNESDAY AS ANOTHER FRONT SWEEPS
SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE REGION.

WWW.SRH.NOAA.GOV/TULSA CONTAINS ADDITIONAL INFORMATION.

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
333 PM CDT SAT OCT 12 2013

OKZ053-122100-
CHOCTAW OK-
333 PM CDT SAT OCT 12 2013

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY...

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN TULSA HAS ISSUED A
SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY EFFECTIVE UNTIL 400 PM CDT
FOR THE FOLLOWING COUNTY...

IN SOUTHEAST OKLAHOMA
     SOUTHWESTERN CHOCTAW

AT 334 PM CDT...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WAS LOCATED OVER CHOCTAW
COUNTY...MOVING SOUTHEAST AT 15 MPH..

THIS STORM WILL BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING PENNY SIZE HAIL. THIS STORM
WILL BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING WIND GUSTS TO 50 MPH.

LAT...LON 3388 9586 3398 9586 3401 9569 3391 9564
      3389 9568 3389 9573 3389 9575 3388 9575
      3387 9585
TIME...MOT...LOC 2034Z 315DEG 13KT 3389 9573

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
344 PM CDT SAT OCT 12 2013

OKZ053-122115-
CHOCTAW OK-
344 PM CDT SAT OCT 12 2013

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY...

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN TULSA HAS ISSUED A
SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY EFFECTIVE UNTIL 415 PM CDT
FOR THE FOLLOWING COUNTY...

IN SOUTHEAST OKLAHOMA
     SOUTHWESTERN CHOCTAW

AT 344 PM CDT...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WAS LOCATED 5 MILES SOUTHWEST
OF BOSWELL...MOVING SOUTHEAST AT 10 MPH. SOME LOCATIONS THAT WILL BE
AFFECTED BY THIS STORM INCLUDE...BOSWELL.

THIS STORM WILL BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING PENNY SIZE HAIL. THIS STORM
WILL BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING WIND GUSTS TO 50 MPH.

LAT...LON 3389 9587 3395 9594 3397 9594 3405 9585
      3394 9577 3388 9585
TIME...MOT...LOC 2044Z 307DEG 10KT 3396 9589