Special Weather Statement, NWS Tulsa, OK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
1247 PM CDT MON JUL 22 2013

.AVIATION...
CONCERNING TAF SITES KTUL/KRVS/KBVO/KMLC/KXNA/KFYV/KFSM.
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE ACROSS PARTS OF
FAR NORTHEAST OKLAHOMA AND FAR NORTHWEST ARKANSAS THIS
AFTERNOON...WHILE MORE ISOLATED CONVECTION WILL BE POSSIBLE
ELSEWHERE. OVERNIGHT ANOTHER THUNDERSTORM COMPLEX MAYBE POSSIBLE
OVER NORTHEAST OKLAHOMA AND NORTHWEST ARKANSAS AGAIN. THUS...HAVE
KEPT THE PROB30 GROUPS. PARTLY CLOUDY TO MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES AND
BREEZY SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS SHOULD REMAIN COMMON INTO THE EVENING
HOURS WITH WINDS BECOMING LIGHT OVERNIGHT. VFR CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED TO REMAIN THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH THE POTENTIAL OF MVFR
CONDITIONS WITHIN ANY THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1106 AM CDT MON JUL 22 2013/

..UPDATE...

DISCUSSION...
A LINE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUE TO PUSH SOUTHEAST
ACROSS FAR NORTHEAST OKLAHOMA AND FAR NORTHWEST ARKANSAS LATE THIS
MORNING. THIS ACTIVITY WAS FOCUSED ON/NEAR A SURFACE BOUNDARY
STRETCHED OUT FROM A SURFACE LOW OVER WESTERN KANSAS. THE STORMS
IN NATURE HAVE BEEN MORE ELEVATED THAN SURFACE BASED...THOUGH
HAIL AND STRONG WINDS COULD CONTINUE TO BE POSSIBLE. THE SURFACE
BOUNDARY IS EXPECTED TO MOVE NORTHWARD THIS AFTERNOON...SHIFTING
SURFACE WINDS OUT OF THE SOUTH SOUTHWEST WITH GUSTS IN THE 20 TO
25 MPH RANGE. MEAN FLOW OVER THE REGION ALSO LOOKS TO SHIFT SOME
AS WELL...MORE OUT OF THE NORTH NORTHWEST...WHICH COULD ALLOW FOR
THE CONVECTION OVER SOUTH CENTRAL KANSAS TO MOVE INTO NORTHEAST
OKLAHOMA. THE CLOUD COVER ALREADY HAS BEGUN TO MOVE INTO THE
REGION WHICH COULD HINDER HIGH TEMPS A BIT. ALSO...AS SKIES REMAIN
MORE MOSTLY SUNNY TO PARTLY CLOUDY OVER SOUTHEAST OKLAHOMA...
DIURNALLY DRIVEN ISOLATED CONVECTION COULD BE POSSIBLE. THUS...A
LATE MORNING UPDATE WILL BE TO ADJUST AFTERNOON POPS/WX/SKY/TEMP
GRIDS BASED OFF OF THE CURRENT THINKING.

TEMPERATURES ACROSS MOST OF EASTERN OKLAHOMA STILL ARE FORECAST TO
REACH INTO THE UPPER 90S TO NEAR 100 DEGREES...THOUGH HAVING
DECREASED TEMPS A DEGREE OR SO OVER NORTHEAST OKLAHOMA...HEAT
INDICES OF 100 TO NEAR 105 DEGREES WILL BE POSSIBLE. THUS...WILL
HOLD OFF ON ANY HEAT HEADLINES FOR NOW AND WILL CONTINUE THE
SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT CURRENTLY IN EFFECT.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TUL   79  99  75  96 /  10  20  30  30
FSM   75  96  74  97 /  10  20  30  40
MLC   76  98  75  99 /  10  10  20  20
BVO   75  97  73  94 /  20  20  40  30
FYV   73  92  71  92 /  30  30  50  50
BYV   74  92  70  90 /  40  40  50  50
MKO   76  98  73  96 /  10  20  30  30
MIO   74  95  72  92 /  40  30  50  40
F10   76  97  73  97 /  10  10  20  20
HHW   77  98  74  99 /  10  10  10  10

&&

.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...NONE.
AR...NONE.
&&

AVIATION...20

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
215 PM CDT MON JUL 22 2013

ARZ001-002-010-011-019-020-029-OKZ049-053>076-230715-
ADAIR OK-BENTON AR-CARROLL AR-CHEROKEE OK-CHOCTAW OK-CRAIG OK-
CRAWFORD AR-CREEK OK-DELAWARE OK-FRANKLIN AR-HASKELL OK-LATIMER OK-
LE FLORE OK-MADISON AR-MAYES OK-MCINTOSH OK-MUSKOGEE OK-NOWATA OK-
OKFUSKEE OK-OKMULGEE OK-OSAGE OK-OTTAWA OK-PAWNEE OK-PITTSBURG OK-
PUSHMATAHA OK-ROGERS OK-SEBASTIAN AR-SEQUOYAH OK-TULSA OK-WAGONER OK-
WASHINGTON OK-WASHINGTON AR-
215 PM CDT MON JUL 22 2013

THIS OUTLOOK IS FOR NORTHWEST AND WEST CENTRAL ARKANSAS AS WELL AS
MUCH OF EASTERN OKLAHOMA.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT.

SEVERE THUNDERSTORM.
	RISK...ELEVATED.
	AREA...EASTERN OKLAHOMA AND NORTHWEST ARKANSAS.
	ONSET...ONGOING.

DANGEROUS HEAT.
	RISK...ELEVATED.
	AREA...SOUTHEAST OKLAHOMA AND WEST CENTRAL ARKANSAS.
	ONSET...ONGOING.

SIGNIFICANT WINDS.
	RISK...LIMITED.
	AREA...EASTERN OKLAHOMA AND NORTHWEST ARKANSAS.
	ONSET...ONGOING.

FIRE WEATHER DANGER.
	RISK...LIMITED.
	AREA...EASTERN OKLAHOMA AND NORTHWEST ARKANSAS.
	ONSET...ONGOING.

DISCUSSION...
THUNDERSTORMS REMAINED ACROSS PARTS OF NORTHEAST OKLAHOMA AND FAR
NORTHWEST ARKANSAS THIS AFTERNOON. THIS ACTIVITY WILL CONTINUE TO
SPREAD ACROSS EASTERN OKLAHOMA AND NORTHWEST ARKANSAS INTO THE
EVENING HOURS. THUNDERSTORMS INTERACTING WITH INSTABILITY AND
LEFTOVER OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES FROM EARLIER CONVECTION WILL ALLOW FOR
THE POTENTIAL OF STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF
EASTERN OKLAHOMA AND NORTHWEST ARKANSAS. LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING
WINDS LOOK BE THE MAIN THREATS. PERIODS OF HEAVY RAINFALL WILL
ALSO BE POSSIBLE WITH THIS ACTIVITY. ADDITIONAL RAINFALL ON TOP OF
RECENT RAINS COULD CREATE THE POTENTIAL FOR FLASH FLOODING.

SOUTH OF THE PRECIPITATION...TEMPERATURES HAVE CLIMBED INTO THE
90S WITH HEAT INDICES OF AROUND 100 TO 105 DEGREES. DANGEROUS HEAT
CONDITIONS SHOULD REMAIN OVER SOUTHEAST OKLAHOMA INTO WEST CENTRAL
ARKANSAS INTO THE EVENING HOURS.

OVERNIGHT TONIGHT ANOTHER THUNDERSTORM COMPLEX IS FORECAST TO
DEVELOP OVER THE PLAINS WITH THE POTENTIAL TO REACH INTO PARTS OF
NORTHEAST OKLAHOMA AND NORTHWEST ARKANSAS. A LIMITED SEVERE THREAT
OF HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS COULD BE CAPABLE WITHIN THIS ACTIVITY.

SPOTTER AND EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT ACTION STATEMENT...
ACTIVATION OF THE REGIONAL SPOTTER NETWORK LIKELY.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY.
TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY...THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL...DANGEROUS
                        HEAT POTENTIAL.
THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL.

EXTENDED DISCUSSION...
THUNDERSTORM CHANCES WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE WEEK AS UPPER LEVEL
DISTURBANCES MOVE THROUGH THE PLAINS WITHIN NORTHWESTERLY UPPER
LEVEL FLOW. GREATER CHANCES LOOK TO BE TUESDAY NIGHT INTO
WEDNESDAY MORNING WITH THE POTENTIAL OF ANOTHER THUNDERSTORM
COMPLEX MOVING INTO NORTHEAST OKLAHOMA AND NORTHWEST ARKANSAS.
EVEN WITH CHANCES OF PRECIPITATION...HOT AND HUMID CONDITIONS
SHOULD REMAIN OVER THE REGION WITH HEAT INDICES IN THE RANGE OF
AROUND 100 DEGREES TO 109 DEGREES OVER PARTS OF EASTERN OKLAHOMA
INTO WESTERN OKLAHOMA.

A MORE DEFINED UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WITH AN ASSOCIATED
COLD FRONT LOOKS TO MOVE INTO THE SOUTHERN PLAINS FRIDAY AND INTO
THE WEEKEND. THIS WILL INCREASE THE THUNDERSTORM CHANCES AGAIN OVER
EASTERN OKLAHOMA AND NORTHWEST ARKANSAS...WITH COOLER TEMPERATURES
POSSIBLE BEHIND THE FRONT.

WWW.SRH.NOAA.GOV/TULSA CONTAINS ADDITIONAL INFORMATION.

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
132 PM CDT MON JUL 22 2013

OKZ060-221900-
TULSA OK-
132 PM CDT MON JUL 22 2013

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY...

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN TULSA HAS ISSUED A
SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY EFFECTIVE UNTIL 200 PM CDT
FOR THE FOLLOWING COUNTY...

IN NORTHEAST OKLAHOMA
     CENTRAL TULSA

AT 133 PM CDT...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WAS LOCATED OVER TULSA...MOVING
EAST AT 25 MPH. SOME LOCATIONS THAT WILL BE AFFECTED BY THIS STORM
INCLUDE...TULSA AND TULSA INTERNATIONAL AIRPORT.

THIS STORM WILL BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING NICKEL SIZE HAIL AND WIND
GUSTS TO 50 MPH.

LAT...LON 3622 9581 3621 9581 3600 9582 3609 9606
      3616 9602 3616 9600 3620 9600 3624 9598
TIME...MOT...LOC 1833Z 284DEG 28KT 3614 9591

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
203 PM CDT MON JUL 22 2013

OKZ060>062-067-221945-
MAYES OK-ROGERS OK-TULSA OK-WAGONER OK-
203 PM CDT MON JUL 22 2013

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY...

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN TULSA HAS ISSUED A
SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY EFFECTIVE UNTIL 245 PM CDT
FOR THE FOLLOWING COUNTIES...

IN NORTHEAST OKLAHOMA
     SOUTHWESTERN MAYES...SOUTHERN ROGERS...SOUTHEASTERN TULSA AND
     NORTHWESTERN WAGONER

AT 203 PM CDT...STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WERE LOCATED ALONG A LINE
EXTENDING FROM 7 MILES SOUTHWEST OF TIAWAH TO JENKS...MOVING EAST AT
15 MPH. SOME LOCATIONS THAT WILL BE AFFECTED BY THESE STORMS
INCLUDE...TULSA...INOLA...TIAWAH...LEONARD...BIXBY...JENKS...
GLENPOOL...BROKEN ARROW...STONEBLUFF...REDBIRD...COWETA...ONETA...
MAZIE...MURPHY AND CHOUTEAU.

THESE STORMS WILL BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING PENNY SIZE HAIL...WIND
GUSTS TO 40 MPH AND VERY HEAVY RAINFALL.

LAT...LON 3627 9556 3616 9524 3587 9556 3586 9603
      3601 9603
TIME...MOT...LOC 1903Z 285DEG 15KT 3617 9561 3599 9596

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
215 PM CDT MON JUL 22 2013

OKZ058-222000-
OTTAWA OK-
215 PM CDT MON JUL 22 2013

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY...

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN TULSA HAS ISSUED A
SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY EFFECTIVE UNTIL 300 PM CDT
FOR THE FOLLOWING COUNTY...

IN NORTHEAST OKLAHOMA
     OTTAWA

AT 215 PM CDT...STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WERE LOCATED ALONG A LINE
EXTENDING FROM 4 MILES SOUTHWEST OF PEORIA TO 3 MILES SOUTHWEST OF
NARCISSA...MOVING SOUTHEAST AT 30 MPH. SOME LOCATIONS THAT WILL BE
AFFECTED BY THESE STORMS INCLUDE...AFTON...FAIRLAND...NARCISSA...
WYANDOTTE...OTTAWA...PEORIA...TIFF CITY AND TWIN BRIDGES STATE PARK.

THESE STORMS WILL BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING PENNY SIZE HAIL AND WIND
GUSTS TO 40 MPH.

LAT...LON 3692 9461 3667 9461 3667 9499 3673 9500
      3682 9500 3695 9465
TIME...MOT...LOC 1915Z 297DEG 27KT 3686 9469 3677 9495

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SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
238 PM CDT MON JUL 22 2013

OKZ060>062-066>068-070-222030-
CHEROKEE OK-MAYES OK-MUSKOGEE OK-OKMULGEE OK-ROGERS OK-TULSA
OK-WAGONER OK-
238 PM CDT MON JUL 22 2013

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY...

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN TULSA HAS ISSUED A
SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY EFFECTIVE UNTIL 330 PM CDT
FOR THE FOLLOWING COUNTIES...

IN EAST CENTRAL OKLAHOMA
     WESTERN CHEROKEE AND NORTHWESTERN MUSKOGEE

IN NORTHEAST OKLAHOMA
     SOUTHWESTERN MAYES...NORTHERN OKMULGEE...SOUTHEASTERN ROGERS...
     SOUTHEASTERN TULSA AND WAGONER

AT 238 PM CDT...STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WERE LOCATED ALONG A LINE
EXTENDING FROM 2 MILES NORTHWEST OF MAZIE TO 3 MILES EAST OF COWETA
TO TULSA...MOVING SOUTHEAST AT 15 MPH. SOME LOCATIONS THAT WILL BE
AFFECTED BY THESE STORMS INCLUDE...TULSA...HECTORVILLE...LOST CITY...
PEGGS...LEONARD...BIXBY...WAGONER...CHOSKA...TULLAHASSEE...PORTER...
OKAY...STONEBLUFF...REDBIRD...COWETA...MAZIE...HASKELL AND SEQUOYAH
STATE PARK.

THESE STORMS WILL BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING NICKEL SIZE HAIL AND WIND
GUSTS TO 50 MPH. RESIDENTS IN THESE AREAS SHOULD REMAIN ALERT IN CASE
THE SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY IS UPGRADED TO A WARNING.

LAT...LON 3607 9502 3576 9532 3577 9597 3605 9594
      3600 9566 3619 9544
TIME...MOT...LOC 1938Z 295DEG 13KT 3613 9538 3593 9559
          3598 9590

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
314 PM CDT MON JUL 22 2013

OKZ072-074-076-222100-
HASKELL OK-LE FLORE OK-SEQUOYAH OK-
314 PM CDT MON JUL 22 2013

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY...

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN TULSA HAS ISSUED A
SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY EFFECTIVE UNTIL 400 PM CDT
FOR THE FOLLOWING COUNTIES...

IN SOUTHEAST OKLAHOMA
     EASTERN HASKELL AND NORTHWESTERN LE FLORE

IN EAST CENTRAL OKLAHOMA
     SOUTHERN SEQUOYAH

AT 314 PM CDT...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WAS LOCATED 3 MILES NORTHEAST
OF KEOTA...STATIONARY. SOME LOCATIONS THAT WILL BE AFFECTED BY THIS
STORM INCLUDE...KEOTA AND MILTON.

THIS STORM WILL BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING PENNY SIZE HAIL AND WIND
GUSTS TO 40 MPH.

LAT...LON 3539 9481 3516 9479 3516 9492 3533 9500
TIME...MOT...LOC 2014Z 225DEG 2KT 3529 9489