Special Weather Statement, NWS Tulsa, OK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
322 PM CDT THU JUL 11 2013

.DISCUSSION...
FRONTAL BOUNDARY THAT CURRENTLY IS NEAR THE RED RIVER
HAS ONLY HAD A MINIMAL IMPACT ON AREA TEMPERATURES TODAY.
HOWEVER...SOME DRIER AIR IS TRYING TO SNEAK INTO THE
AREA FROM THE NORTHEAST. THE THREAT FOR ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS
IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH THE EARLY EVENING HOURS BEFORE
THE ACTIVITY DISSIPATES. LIKE YESTERDAY...ANY OF THE THUNDERSTORMS
WILL HAVE THE POTENTIAL TO PRODUCE DAMAGING DOWNBURST WINDS.

TEMPERATURES ON FRIDAY ARE EXPECTED TO BE A DEGREE OR SO COOLER
THAN TODAY WITH SLIGHTLY DRIER AIR IN PLACE AS WELL. THIS WILL
KEEP HEAT INDEX VALUES A LITTLE COOLER. WILL STILL HAVE TO CONTINUE
A HEAT ADVISORY FOR PORTIONS OF EASTERN OKLAHOMA THROUGH FRIDAY
AFTERNOON.

INTERESTING WEATHER CHANGES ARE ON TAP FOR THE WEEKEND AS A MID-LEVEL
LOW CURRENTLY OVER SOUTHERN MICHIGAN WILL MOVE CLOCKWISE AROUND A
MID-LEVEL RIDGE AS IT MOVES INTO THE PLAINS. THIS LOW IS SET TO MOVE
FROM EAST TO WEST ACROSS THE AREA SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY. THIS
LOW WILL HELP DROP TEMPERATURES TO AT OR BELOW NORMAL LEVELS AS WE MOVE
LATE INTO THE WEEKEND AND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. HAVE HELD POPS OFF
UNTIL SUNDAY NIGHT BUT MAY NEED TO INTRODUCE SOME EARLIER IN THE WEEKEND.
THE MID-LEVEL RIDGE WILL SLOWLY BUILD BACK INTO THE AREA FROM EAST
DURING THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK AS THE LOW DEPARTS TO THE WEST AND WEAKENS.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TUL   74  97  72  95 /  20  10   0  10
FSM   72  95  68  94 /  20  10   0  10
MLC   74  98  68  95 /  20  10   0  10
BVO   69  97  68  96 /  20  10   0  10
FYV   66  90  60  90 /  20  10   0  10
BYV   65  89  61  88 /  10  10   0  10
MKO   73  96  68  94 /  20  10   0  10
MIO   69  94  67  93 /  10  10   0  10
F10   75  97  70  94 /  20  10   0  10
HHW   74  98  69  94 /  20  10   0  10

&&

.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM THURSDAY FOR OKZ049-OKZ053-OKZ067-
     OKZ070-OKZ072-OKZ074-OKZ075-OKZ076.

     HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM FRIDAY FOR OKZ060-OKZ064-OKZ065-OKZ066-
     OKZ071-OKZ073.

AR...HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM THURSDAY FOR ARZ019-ARZ029.

&&

SHORT TERM...06
LONG TERM....10

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
107 PM CDT THU JUL 11 2013

ARZ001-002-010-011-019-020-029-OKZ049-053>076-121000-
ADAIR OK-BENTON AR-CARROLL AR-CHEROKEE OK-CHOCTAW OK-CRAIG OK-
CRAWFORD AR-CREEK OK-DELAWARE OK-FRANKLIN AR-HASKELL OK-LATIMER OK-
LE FLORE OK-MADISON AR-MAYES OK-MCINTOSH OK-MUSKOGEE OK-NOWATA OK-
OKFUSKEE OK-OKMULGEE OK-OSAGE OK-OTTAWA OK-PAWNEE OK-PITTSBURG OK-
PUSHMATAHA OK-ROGERS OK-SEBASTIAN AR-SEQUOYAH OK-TULSA OK-WAGONER OK-
WASHINGTON OK-WASHINGTON AR-
107 PM CDT THU JUL 11 2013

THIS OUTLOOK IS FOR NORTHWEST AND WEST CENTRAL ARKANSAS AS WELL AS
MUCH OF EASTERN OKLAHOMA.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT.

SEVERE THUNDERSTORM.
	RISK...LIMITED.
	AREA...ALL BUT FAR NORTHEAST OKLAHOMA AND NORTHWEST ARKANSAS.
	ONSET...MID TO LATE AFTERNOON.

DANGEROUS HEAT.
	RISK...ELEVATED.
	AREA...GENERALLY ALONG AND SOUTH OF AN OWASSO TO VAN BUREN LINE.
	ONSET...ONGOING.

DISCUSSION...
A WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY REMAINS IN THE VICINITY TODAY AND THIS
WILL ONCE AGAIN RESULT IN ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT THIS
AFTERNOON. DAMAGING WINDS WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH ANY STORM THAT
DOES DEVELOP.

AFTERNOON HEAT INDEX VALUES WILL CLIMB TO NEAR OR JUST ABOVE 105
THIS AFTERNOON ALONG AND SOUTH OF THE ARKANSAS RIVER VALLEY.

SPOTTER AND EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT ACTION STATEMENT...
LOCAL SPOTTER ACTIVATION MAY BE NEEDED.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY.
FRIDAY...DANGEROUS HEAT POTENTIAL.
SATURDAY...NO HAZARDS.
SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL.
WEDNESDAY...NO HAZARDS.

EXTENDED DISCUSSION...
TEMPERATURES WILL COOL OVER THE WEEKEND AS UPPER LEVEL LOW
PRESSURE CURRENTLY OVER THE EASTERN U.S. RETROGRADES WEST OF THE
MISSISSIPPI RIVER. THIS MOVEMENT WILL BRING INCREASING CHANCES FOR
THUNDERSTORMS BY EARLY NEXT WEEK.

WWW.SRH.NOAA.GOV/TULSA CONTAINS ADDITIONAL INFORMATION.

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
324 PM CDT THU JUL 11 2013

OKZ049-053-112100-
CHOCTAW OK-PUSHMATAHA OK-
324 PM CDT THU JUL 11 2013

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY...

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN TULSA HAS ISSUED A
SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY EFFECTIVE UNTIL 400 PM CDT
FOR THE FOLLOWING COUNTIES...

IN SOUTHEAST OKLAHOMA
     EASTERN CHOCTAW AND SOUTHEASTERN PUSHMATAHA

AT 324 PM CDT...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WAS LOCATED 11 MILES NORTHEAST
OF SWINK...MOVING SOUTH AT 10 MPH. SOME LOCATIONS THAT WILL BE
AFFECTED BY THIS STORM INCLUDE...FROGVILLE...FORT TOWSON...SWINK...
HUSKEY AND RAYMOND GARY STATE PARK.

THIS STORM WILL BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING NICKEL SIZE HAIL AND WIND
GUSTS TO 50 MPH.

LAT...LON 3388 9533 3426 9520 3424 9511 3423 9514
      3394 9515 3393 9517 3395 9522 3393 9524
      3389 9525 3389 9527 3387 9529 3387 9531
TIME...MOT...LOC 2024Z 012DEG 10KT 3415 9512

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
342 PM CDT THU JUL 11 2013

ARZ019-029-OKZ072-112115-
CRAWFORD AR-SEBASTIAN AR-SEQUOYAH OK-
342 PM CDT THU JUL 11 2013

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY...

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN TULSA HAS ISSUED A
SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY EFFECTIVE UNTIL 415 PM CDT
FOR THE FOLLOWING COUNTIES...

IN NORTHWEST ARKANSAS
     SOUTHWESTERN CRAWFORD

IN WEST CENTRAL ARKANSAS
     NORTHWESTERN SEBASTIAN

IN EAST CENTRAL OKLAHOMA
     EASTERN SEQUOYAH

AT 343 PM CDT...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WAS LOCATED OVER CEDARVILLE...
MOVING SOUTHWEST AT 10 MPH. SOME LOCATIONS THAT WILL BE AFFECTED BY
THIS STORM INCLUDE...ROLAND...SHORT...MOFFETT...UNIONTOWN...FORT
SMITH...VAN BUREN...CEDARVILLE...NATURAL DAM...FURRY...FIGURE FIVE...
RUDY AND DORA.

THIS STORM WILL BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING NICKEL SIZE HAIL AND WIND
GUSTS TO 50 MPH. RESIDENTS IN THESE AREAS SHOULD REMAIN ALERT IN CASE
THE SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY IS UPGRADED TO A WARNING.

LAT...LON 3535 9440 3549 9462 3566 9443 3558 9422
TIME...MOT...LOC 2043Z 038DEG 9KT 3556 9437

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SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
453 PM CDT THU JUL 11 2013

OKZ064-112230-
CREEK OK-
453 PM CDT THU JUL 11 2013

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY...

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN TULSA HAS ISSUED A
SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY EFFECTIVE UNTIL 530 PM CDT
FOR THE FOLLOWING COUNTY...

IN NORTHEAST OKLAHOMA
     CENTRAL CREEK

AT 453 PM CDT...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WAS LOCATED OVER KELLYVILLE...
MOVING SOUTHWEST AT 5 MPH. SOME LOCATIONS THAT WILL BE AFFECTED BY
THIS STORM INCLUDE...SLICK AND KELLYVILLE.

THIS STORM WILL BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING WIND GUSTS TO 50 MPH.
RESIDENTS IN THESE AREAS SHOULD REMAIN ALERT IN CASE THE SIGNIFICANT
WEATHER ADVISORY IS UPGRADED TO A WARNING.

LAT...LON 3599 9625 3594 9614 3585 9618 3585 9619
      3582 9619 3575 9622 3587 9644
TIME...MOT...LOC 2153Z 040DEG 5KT 3593 9622

LACY

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
454 PM CDT THU JUL 11 2013

OKZ066-112230-
OKMULGEE OK-
454 PM CDT THU JUL 11 2013

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY...

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN TULSA HAS ISSUED A
SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY EFFECTIVE UNTIL 530 PM CDT
FOR THE FOLLOWING COUNTY...

IN NORTHEAST OKLAHOMA
     WESTERN OKMULGEE

AT 454 PM CDT...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WAS LOCATED 2 MILES NORTHWEST
OF PRESTON...MOVING SOUTHWEST AT 10 MPH. SOME LOCATIONS THAT WILL BE
AFFECTED BY THIS STORM INCLUDE...OKMULGEE...PRESTON...BEGGS AND
OKMULGEE STATE PARK.

THIS STORM WILL BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING WIND GUSTS TO 50 MPH.
RESIDENTS IN THESE AREAS SHOULD REMAIN ALERT IN CASE THE SIGNIFICANT
WEATHER ADVISORY IS UPGRADED TO A WARNING.

LAT...LON 3581 9606 3575 9590 3551 9599 3559 9619
      3566 9619
TIME...MOT...LOC 2154Z 025DEG 11KT 3574 9601

LACY