Special Weather Statement, NWS Tulsa, OK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
355 AM CDT WED JUN 5 2013

.DISCUSSION...
STORM COMPLEX THAT ORIGINATED ACROSS SW KS/NW OK LATE YESTERDAY
EVENING IS POISED TO ENTER NE OK SHORTLY. SEVERE POTENTIAL WILL BE
MAINTAINED INTO THE MORNING HOURS AS SEVERAL 65 MPH GUSTS HAVE
BEEN REPORTED WITH THE LEADING EDGE OVERNIGHT. THE COMPLEX IS
EXPECTED TO WEAKEN AS THE MORNING PROGRESSES. TRAILING SYNOPTIC
BOUNDARY WILL CONTINUE TO SAG SOUTH...HOWEVER OUTFLOW FROM THIS
MORNINGS COMPLEX MAY EVENTUALLY SERVE AS THE EFFECTIVE BOUNDARY
THAT WILL BE THE FOCUS FOR ADDITIONAL STORMS LATER TODAY AND
TONIGHT. THAT SAID...WILL HAVE HIGHER POPS ACROSS THE SOUTH
TONIGHT. DRIER AIR WILL BEGIN TO FILTER IN FROM THE NORTH
TONIGHT...AND WILL TEMPER RAIN CHANCES FROM NORTH TO SOUTH
THURSDAY. SETTLED WEATHER EXPECTED INTO THE WEEKEND...BUT WILL
KEEP LOW POPS GOING INTO MONDAY...MAINLY ACROSS THE NORTHERN ZONES
THAT WILL BE IN THE VICINITY OF A DEVELOPING WARM FRONT. UPPER
RIDGING LOOKS TO TAKE HOLD NEXT WEEK...HOWEVER SOME OF THE LATEST
GUIDANCE KEEPS NE ZONES ON THE PERIPHERY OF THE RIDGE...WHICH PUTS
WOULD PUT THAT AREA IN A FAVORABLE LOCATION FOR OVERNIGHT STORM
COMPLEXES.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TUL   79  63  79  58 /  70  60  20  10
FSM   80  66  78  61 /  80  70  40  10
MLC   82  66  78  60 /  60  70  40  10
BVO   77  61  78  55 /  80  50  10  10
FYV   76  61  76  55 /  80  70  20  10
BYV   76  61  75  56 /  80  60  20  10
MKO   79  65  79  58 /  70  70  20  10
MIO   76  61  77  56 /  80  50  10  10
F10   80  64  79  59 /  70  70  20  10
HHW   86  68  78  61 /  50  70  50  10

&&

.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...NONE.
AR...NONE.
&&

SHORT TERM...07
LONG TERM....23

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
518 PM CDT TUE JUN 4 2013

ARZ001-002-010-011-019-020-029-OKZ049-053>076-051000-
ADAIR OK-BENTON AR-CARROLL AR-CHEROKEE OK-CHOCTAW OK-CRAIG OK-
CRAWFORD AR-CREEK OK-DELAWARE OK-FRANKLIN AR-HASKELL OK-LATIMER OK-
LE FLORE OK-MADISON AR-MAYES OK-MCINTOSH OK-MUSKOGEE OK-NOWATA OK-
OKFUSKEE OK-OKMULGEE OK-OSAGE OK-OTTAWA OK-PAWNEE OK-PITTSBURG OK-
PUSHMATAHA OK-ROGERS OK-SEBASTIAN AR-SEQUOYAH OK-TULSA OK-WAGONER OK-
WASHINGTON OK-WASHINGTON AR-
515 PM CDT TUE JUN 4 2013

.DAY ONE...TONIGHT.

SEVERE THUNDERSTORM.
	RISK...LIMITED.
	AREA...PRIMARILY EASTERN OKLAHOMA.
	ONSET...AFTER MIDNIGHT.

FLASH FLOOD.
	RISK...LIMITED.
	AREA...NORTHEAST OKLAHOMA.
	ONSET...OVERNIGHT.

HEAVY RAIN.
	RISK...LIMITED.
	AREA...NORTHEAST OKLAHOMA.
	ONSET...OVERNIGHT.

DISCUSSION...
THUNDERSTORMS..DEVELOPING NEAR A FRONTAL BOUNDARY IN SOUTHWEST
KANSAS AND NORTHWEST OKLAHOMA THIS EVENING WILL MOVE SOUTHEAST
INTO EASTERN OKLAHOMA AFTER MIDNIGHT AND EVENTUALLY REACH INTO
NORTHWEST ARKANSAS LATE TONIGHT.

THIS THUNDERSTORM COMPLEX  WILL BE CAPABLE OF A LIMITED THREAT
OF DAMAGING WIND AND HEAVY RAINFALL. HEAVY RAINFALL OVER AREAS
THAT HAVE RECEIVED COPIOUS RAIN...THE PAST SEVERAL DAYS RAISES
FLASH FLOOD CONCERNS AND LONGER DURATION FLOOD PROBLEMS.

SPOTTER AND EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT ACTION STATEMENT...
LOCAL SPOTTER ACTIVATION MAY BE NEEDED.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY.
WEDNESDAY...THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL...HEAVY RAIN POTENTIAL.
THURSDAY...THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL.
FRIDAY...NO HAZARDS.
SATURDAY...NO HAZARDS.
SUNDAY...THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL.
MONDAY...THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL.

EXTENDED DISCUSSION...
THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL PUSH SLOWLY SOUTHEAST INTO OUR AREA
WEDNESDAY...AND SERVE AS A FOCUS FOR STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS.
THE POTENTIAL ALSO EXISTS FOR MORE HEAVY RAINFALL AND A RISK
OF FLOODING.

THUNDERSTORM CHANCES WILL CONTINUE FOR SOUTHEASTERN OKLAHOMA
AND NORTHWESTERN ARKANSAS THURSDAY. THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT
WILL END AS THE FRONT MOVES SOUTH AND EAST LATE THURSDAY.

DRY AND MILD WEATHER WILL PREVAIL FRIDAY...WITH THUNDERSTORM
CHANCES INCREASING AGAIN SUNDAY AND MONDAY.

WWW.SRH.NOAA.GOV/TULSA CONTAINS ADDITIONAL INFORMATION.

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
421 AM CDT WED JUN 5 2013

OKZ059-064-050945-
CREEK OK-PAWNEE OK-
421 AM CDT WED JUN 5 2013

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY...

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN TULSA HAS ISSUED A
SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY EFFECTIVE UNTIL 445 AM CDT
FOR THE FOLLOWING COUNTIES...

IN NORTHEAST OKLAHOMA
     NORTHWESTERN CREEK AND PAWNEE

AT 421 AM CDT...STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WERE LOCATED ALONG A LINE
EXTENDING FROM 5 MILES NORTH OF MARAMEC TO 21 MILES WEST OF
DRUMRIGHT...MOVING EAST AT 35 MPH. SOME LOCATIONS THAT WILL BE
AFFECTED BY THESE STORMS INCLUDE...JENNINGS...TERLTON...HALLETT...
MARAMEC...DRUMRIGHT...OILTON AND QUAY.

THESE STORMS WILL BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING WIND GUSTS TO 50 MPH.

LAT...LON 3635 9678 3632 9657 3629 9654 3631 9650
      3630 9644 3627 9641 3591 9662 3615 9663
      3615 9682 3616 9683 3624 9682 3625 9686
TIME...MOT...LOC 0921Z 282DEG 30KT 3631 9664 3592 9697