Special Weather Statement, NWS Tulsa, OK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
342 PM CDT WED MAY 15 2013

.DISCUSSION...
MID LEVEL CIRCULATION LIFTING INTO CENTRAL OKLAHOMA IS IN THE
PROCESS OF CLOSING INTO A MORE DEFINED LOW CENTER...WHICH WILL
VERY SLOWLY TRACK EASTWARD AND MAINTAIN AN INFLUENCE ON THE
REGIONAL WEATHER TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY. ONGOING CONVECTION
ACROSS CENTRAL OK INTO WESTERN AR IS OPERATING IN AN UNSTABLE YET
WEAKLY SHEARED ENVIRONMENT WHICH WILL SUPPORT ISOLATED SVR
POTENTIAL INTO THE EVENING. CONVECTION IS EXPECTED TO BE
MAINTAINED INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS AS A PLUME OF HIGHER MOISTURE
CONTINUES TO BE ADVECTED ALONG THE EASTERN PERIPHERY OF THE UPPER
LOW CENTER. EXPANSIVE CLOUDS / PRECIP WILL CONTINUE THE COOLER
HIGH TEMPS ON THURSDAY.

RIDGING ALOFT STRENGTHENS FRIDAY IN THE WAKE OF THE UPPER LOW WITH
RAPIDLY WARMING LOW LEVEL TEMP PROFILES. THIS WILL ALSO SERVE TO
STRENGTHEN THE LOW LEVEL CAPPING INVERSION WHICH WILL BE IN PLACE
AHEAD OF THE NEXT UPPER TROUGH WHICH WILL BEGIN TO INFLUENCE THE
PLAINS ON SATURDAY. CURRENT DATA FAVORS THE NECESSITY OF
APPRECIABLE SFC BOUNDARIES TO FOCUS STORMS GIVEN THE CAPPED NATURE
OF THE WARM SECTOR...AND THE CLOSEST BOUNDARY TO OUR AREA WILL BE
THE SHARPENING DRYLINE ACROSS WESTERN OK. STORMS WHICH DEVELOP
ALONG THIS ZONE FRIDAY WILL STRUGGLE TO MAKE IT THIS FAR EAST
BEFORE DISSIPATING...WITH THE DRYLINE SHIFTING SLIGHTLY FURTHER
EASTWARD ON SUNDAY WITH THE LIKELIHOOD OF A PASSING SPEED MAX
AIDING INTO STORM DEVELOPMENT. FORECAST SHEAR/INSTABILITY
PARAMETERS WILL FAVOR SUPERCELLS THAT MAY EVOLVE INTO A LARGER
COMPLEX SUNDAY NIGHT...WITH NORTHERN LOCATIONS THE MOST LIKELY TO
BE IMPACTED.

STORM OUTFLOW AND/OR A WEAK COLD FRONT LOOK TO BE IN THE AREA ON
MONDAY...AND AGAIN STRONG INSTABILITY WILL DEVELOP ALONG AND SOUTH
OF THE BOUNDARY. FLOW ALOFT REMAINS STRONG HOWEVER THE LOW LEVEL
FLOW LOOKS TO WEAKEN AND VEER CONSIDERABLY...WITH THIS SCENARIO
FAVORING SVR STORMS INITIALLY ALONG AND NEAR THE BOUNDARY WITH A
TRANSITION TOWARD HEAVY RAIN CONCERNS AS THE BOUNDARY SLOWLY SAGS
SOUTHWARD.

STORM CHANCES MAY LINGER INTO TUESDAY PENDING THE SOUTHWARD PUSH
OF THE SFC BOUNDARY...WHILE THE FLOW ALOFT LOOKS TO TRANSITION TO
UPPER RIDGING AND LESS ACTIVE BY MID/LATE WEEK.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TUL   64  78  66  84 /  60  30  10  10
FSM   64  74  64  80 /  70  60  30  10
MLC   64  74  65  80 /  70  40  10  10
BVO   62  79  62  87 /  50  30  10  10
FYV   61  73  60  80 /  70  50  30  10
BYV   60  72  61  82 /  60  50  30  10
MKO   63  75  63  82 /  70  50  10  10
MIO   63  77  63  85 /  50  40  20  10
F10   64  75  65  81 /  70  30  10  10
HHW   63  76  65  80 /  60  40  20  10

&&

.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...NONE.
AR...NONE.
&&

LONG TERM....07

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SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
409 PM CDT WED MAY 15 2013

OKZ053-152200-
CHOCTAW OK-
409 PM CDT WED MAY 15 2013

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY...

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN TULSA HAS ISSUED A
SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY EFFECTIVE UNTIL 500 PM CDT
FOR THE FOLLOWING COUNTY...

IN SOUTHEAST OKLAHOMA
     EASTERN CHOCTAW

AT 410 PM CDT...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WAS LOCATED 7 MILES SOUTHWEST
OF ORD...MOVING NORTHEAST AT 35 MPH. SOME LOCATIONS THAT WILL BE
AFFECTED BY THIS STORM INCLUDE...HUGO...ORD...FROGVILLE...GRANT...
GOODLAND...SAWYER...FORT TOWSON...SWINK...MESSER...HUSKEY...FALLON...
APPLE...HUGO LAKE STATE PARK AND RAYMOND GARY STATE PARK.

THIS STORM WILL BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING NICKEL SIZE HAIL AND WIND
GUSTS TO 50 MPH. RESIDENTS IN THESE AREAS SHOULD REMAIN ALERT IN CASE
THE SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY IS UPGRADED TO A WARNING.

LAT...LON 3388 9547 3387 9551 3389 9551 3388 9555
      3393 9557 3392 9562 3414 9550 3415 9515
      3409 9515 3387 9530 3388 9533 3387 9534
      3386 9542
TIME...MOT...LOC 2110Z 209DEG 30KT 3385 9553

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
434 PM CDT WED MAY 15 2013

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0430 PM     HAIL             HUGO                    34.01N 95.51W
05/15/2013  E1.00 INCH       CHOCTAW            OK   TRAINED SPOTTER

&&

RJS

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
443 PM CDT WED MAY 15 2013

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0420 PM     HAIL             GRANT                   33.94N 95.51W
05/15/2013  E0.88 INCH       CHOCTAW            OK   PUBLIC

            ABOUT NICKEL SIZE HAIL FELL AT THE CHOCTAW CASINO.

&&

AEJ

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
501 PM CDT WED MAY 15 2013

OKZ065-152230-
OKFUSKEE OK-
501 PM CDT WED MAY 15 2013

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY...

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN TULSA HAS ISSUED A
SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY EFFECTIVE UNTIL 530 PM CDT
FOR THE FOLLOWING COUNTY...

IN EAST CENTRAL OKLAHOMA
     SOUTHEASTERN OKFUSKEE

AT 502 PM CDT...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WAS LOCATED 10 MILES SOUTH OF
BEARDEN...MOVING NORTHEAST AT 15 MPH. SOME LOCATIONS THAT WILL BE
AFFECTED BY THIS STORM INCLUDE...OKEMAH...WELEETKA...BEARDEN AND
CLEARVIEW.

THIS STORM WILL BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING PENNY SIZE HAIL AND WIND
GUSTS TO 40 MPH. RESIDENTS IN THESE AREAS SHOULD REMAIN ALERT IN CASE
THE SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY IS UPGRADED TO A WARNING.

LAT...LON 3537 9645 3555 9630 3534 9604 3528 9614
      3528 9643 3529 9645
TIME...MOT...LOC 2202Z 224DEG 13KT 3522 9641