Special Weather Statement, NWS Tulsa, OK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
1128 AM CST TUE JAN 29 2013

.AVIATION...
CONCERNING TAF SITES KTUL/KRVS/KBVO/KMLC/KXNA/KFYV/KFSM.
WIDESPREAD ONGOING CONVECTION WILL CONTINUE TO IMPACT ALL
TERMINALS THROUGH MID AFTERNOON...WITH A GRADUAL CLEARING AND
RISING FLIGHT CONDITIONS ACROSS NE OK. STORMS WILL CONTINUE TO
IMPACT SE OK / WESTERN AR INTO THE EARLY EVENING...BEFORE PUSHING
FURTHER EAST INTO ARKANSAS. STRONG NORTHWESTERLY WINDS WILL FOLLOW
A COLD FRONT SOUTHWARD THROUGH THE AREA TONIGHT...WITH MVFR
CEILINGS LIKELY TO OVERSPREAD MANY OF THE TERMINALS BY MORNING.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 531 AM CST TUE JAN 29 2013/

DISCUSSION...
FOR THE 12Z TAFS... STRONG THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO MOVE
ACROSS THE AREA TODAY... GENERALLY FROM WEST TO EAST... AFFECTING
ALL TAF SITES. ALTHOUGH THE WORST CONDITIONS FORECAST ARE MVFR...
WORSE CONDITIONS COULD BE POSSIBLE IF A STRONG CELL HAPPENS TO
MOVE DIRECTLY ACROSS A TAF SITE. STRONG GUSTY WINDS ARE FORECAST
AT ALL TAF SITES. THESE MAY BECOME DIRECTIONALLY VARIABLE AND
STRONGER NEAR STORMS.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 235 AM CST TUE JAN 29 2013/

DISCUSSION...
UNSEASONABLY MILD CONDITIONS THIS MORNING AHEAD OF STRONG UPPER
TROUGH...WHICH WILL IMPACT THE REGION TODAY. ATMOSPHERE WILL
CONTINUE TO DESTABILIZE AHEAD OF SYSTEM WITH STRONG FORCING
DEVELOPING BY SUNRISE AS 100+ KNOT JET SPREADS OVER AREA.
SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP AHEAD OF FRONTAL BOUNDARY/DRY
LINE ACROSS NORTHEAST OKLAHOMA WEST OF HIGHWAY 75 WITH STORMS
INCREASING IN COVERAGE. ALTHOUGH THESE STORMS MAY INITIALLY BE
SLIGHTLY ELEVATED...STRONG LOW LEVEL WIND FIELDS WILL SUPPORT A
LIMITED TORNADO THREAT. STORMS WILL BECOME MORE LINEAR IN NATURE
BY THIS AFTERNOON WITH LARGE HAIL/DAMAGING WINDS POSSIBLE AS
CONVECTIVE LINE MOVES INTO SOUTHEAST OKLAHOMA/NORTHWEST ARKANSAS.
A FEW ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS COULD ALSO DEVELOP AHEAD OF LINE
ACROSS FAR SOUTHEAST OKLAHOMA/NORTHWEST ARKANSAS WITH A BRIEF
WINDOW OF ENHANCED LOW LEVEL WINDS WHICH COULD SUPPORT THE THREAT
FOR ISOLATED TORNADOES. THIS AREA WILL ALSO SEE THE BEST CHANCE
FOR SEVERE WEATHER...PRIMARILY IN THE STRONGER BOW SEGMENTS/MESO-
CYCLONES AS QLCS SWEEPS THROUGH BY LATE AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING.
THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT SHOULD END BY MID EVENING AS DRY LINE
SHIFTS EAST WITH COLD FRONT PUSHING SOUTHEAST OF INTERSTATE 44 BY
THIS TIME.

COLD/BREEZY CONDITIONS EXPECTED INTO WEDNESDAY AS TIGHT PRESSURE
GRADIENT REMAINS BEHIND DEPARTING SYSTEM. ANOTHER REINFORCING
SHOT OF COLDER AIR EXPECTED ON THURSDAY AND TO A LESSER EXTENT
AGAIN ON SATURDAY WITH A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR PRECIP. TEMPERATURES
WILL BEGIN TO MODERATE BY LATE WEEKEND AS SURFACE HIGH SHIFTS
EAST.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TUL   70  35  46  28 /  90  20  10   0
FSM   75  43  50  28 /  90  60  10   0
MLC   71  38  49  29 /  80  20  10   0
BVO   55  34  43  21 / 100  30  10   0
FYV   68  35  42  25 /  90  60  10   0
BYV   68  36  41  25 /  90  60  10   0
MKO   71  36  47  26 /  90  20  10   0
MIO   68  34  41  25 /  80  40  10   0
F10   70  36  47  29 /  80  20  10   0
HHW   74  40  53  30 /  90  30  10   0

&&

.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...NONE.
AR...NONE.
&&

AVIATION...07

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
1258 PM CST TUE JAN 29 2013

ARZ001-002-010-011-019-020-029-OKZ049-053>076-301100-
ADAIR OK-BENTON AR-CARROLL AR-CHEROKEE OK-CHOCTAW OK-CRAIG OK-
CRAWFORD AR-CREEK OK-DELAWARE OK-FRANKLIN AR-HASKELL OK-LATIMER OK-
LE FLORE OK-MADISON AR-MAYES OK-MCINTOSH OK-MUSKOGEE OK-NOWATA OK-
OKFUSKEE OK-OKMULGEE OK-OSAGE OK-OTTAWA OK-PAWNEE OK-PITTSBURG OK-
PUSHMATAHA OK-ROGERS OK-SEBASTIAN AR-SEQUOYAH OK-TULSA OK-WAGONER OK-
WASHINGTON OK-WASHINGTON AR-
100 PM CST TUE JAN 29 2013

...SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES THROUGH MID EVENING...

THIS OUTLOOK IS FOR NORTHWEST AND WEST CENTRAL ARKANSAS AS WELL AS
MUCH OF EASTERN OKLAHOMA.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT.
TORNADO.
	RISK...LIMITED.
	AREA...SOUTHEAST OF A FAYETTEVILLE TO MCALESTER LINE.
	ONSET...ONGOING.

SEVERE THUNDERSTORM.
	RISK...SIGNIFICANT.
	AREA...SOUTHEAST OF INTERSTATE 44.
	ONSET...ONGOING.

	AREA AT GREATEST RISK...FAR SOUTHEAST OKLAHOMA AND WEST
        CENTRAL ARKANSAS.

FLASH FLOOD.
	RISK...ELEVATED.
	AREA...PORTIONS OF NORTHEAST OKLAHOMA...AND ALSO WESTERN
        ARKANSAS.
	ONSET...ONGOING.

SIGNIFICANT WINDS.
	RISK...LIMITED.
	AREA...ALL EASTERN OKLAHOMA AND NORTHWEST ARKANSAS.
	ONSET...ONGOING.

DISCUSSION...
WIDESPREAD THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE THIS AFTERNOON AND
INTO THE MID EVENING HOURS...BEFORE PUSHING FURTHER EASTWARD
INTO CENTRAL ARKANSAS.  LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL HAS ALREADY
FALLEN ACROSS PORTIONS OF NORTHEAST OKLAHOMA...AND ADDITIONAL
LOCALLY HEAVY RAINS ARE LIKELY ACROSS PORTIONS OF WESTERN
ARKANSAS THROUGH THIS EVENING.  FLOODING OF LOW LYING AREAS IS
POSSIBLE.

THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT WILL CONTINUE THIS AFTERNOON AND
EVENING...AND SHIFT EASTWARD AS THE STORMS ADVANCE.  THE
EXPECTED SCENARIO IS THAT STORMS BECOME STRONGER THROUGH THE
AFTERNOON HOURS...WITH THE FAVORED AREA FOR SEVERE WEATHER
BEING SOUTHEAST OF A LINE FROM FAYETTEVILLE TO MCALESTER.
WIND FIELDS ALOFT ARE STRONG AND ANY SUSTAINED UPDRAFT WILL
HAVE POTENTIAL TO CREATE DAMAGING WINDS AND POSSIBLY QUARTER
SIZE HAIL.  ADDITIONALLY...LOW LEVEL WIND SHEAR WILL BE
SUFFICIENTLY STRONG TO WARRANT A RISK OF TORNADOES...THOUGH
THIS RISK WILL QUICKLY SHIFT FURTHER EASTWARD BY EARLY EVENING.

GUSTY SOUTH WINDS WILL PRECEDE THE COLD FRONT WHICH IS CURRENTLY
ALONG INTERSTATE 44.  A STRONGER PUSH OF COLD AIR WILL INCREASE
NORTHWESTERLY WINDS OVERNIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY.

SPOTTER AND EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT ACTION STATEMENT...
ACTIVATION OF THE REGIONAL SPOTTER NETWORK IS LIKELY.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY.
WEDNESDAY...VERY HIGH FIRE WEATHER POTENTIAL...HIGH WIND POTENTIAL.
THURSDAY...VERY HIGH FIRE WEATHER POTENTIAL...HIGH WIND POTENTIAL.
FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...NO HAZARDS.
MONDAY...HIGH WIND POTENTIAL.

EXTENDED DISCUSSION...
STRONG NORTHWESTERLY WINDS WILL PREVAIL ON WEDNESDAY...WITH GUSTY
CONDITIONS CONTINUING ON THURSDAY.  THE RECENT RAINFALL WILL HELP
ALLEVIATE IMMEDIATE FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS...HOWEVER FINE FUELS
SUCH AS GRASSES WILL CURE QUICKLY AND ANY WILDFIRES COULD SPREAD
QUICKLY WITH THESE WINDS.

WWW.SRH.NOAA.GOV/TULSA CONTAINS ADDITIONAL INFORMATION.

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SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
102 PM CST TUE JAN 29 2013

OKZ062-063-067-068-291930-
CHEROKEE OK-DELAWARE OK-MAYES OK-WAGONER OK-
102 PM CST TUE JAN 29 2013

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY...

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN TULSA HAS ISSUED A
SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY EFFECTIVE UNTIL 130 PM CST
FOR THE FOLLOWING COUNTIES...

IN EAST CENTRAL OKLAHOMA
     NORTHWESTERN CHEROKEE

IN NORTHEAST OKLAHOMA
     SOUTHWESTERN DELAWARE...SOUTHEASTERN MAYES AND EASTERN WAGONER

AT 103 PM CST...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WAS LOCATED 3 MILES WEST OF
SEQUOYAH STATE PARK...MOVING NORTHEAST AT 55 MPH. SOME LOCATIONS THAT
WILL BE AFFECTED BY THIS STORM INCLUDE...HULBERT...LOST CITY...
PEGGS...WAGONER...MURPHY...LOCUST GROVE...ROSE AND SEQUOYAH STATE
PARK.

THIS STORM WILL BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING WIND GUSTS OF 40 TO 50 MPH.
RESIDENTS IN THESE AREAS SHOULD REMAIN ALERT IN CASE THE SIGNIFICANT
WEATHER ADVISORY IS UPGRADED TO A WARNING.

LAT...LON 3631 9522 3617 9487 3582 9522 3589 9540
TIME...MOT...LOC 1903Z 209DEG 55KT 3593 9526

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
127 PM CST TUE JAN 29 2013

OKZ058-062-063-068-292015-
CHEROKEE OK-DELAWARE OK-MAYES OK-OTTAWA OK-
127 PM CST TUE JAN 29 2013

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY...

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN TULSA HAS ISSUED A
SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY EFFECTIVE UNTIL 215 PM CST
FOR THE FOLLOWING COUNTIES...

IN EAST CENTRAL OKLAHOMA
     NORTHERN CHEROKEE

IN NORTHEAST OKLAHOMA
     DELAWARE...SOUTHEASTERN MAYES AND SOUTHWESTERN OTTAWA

AT 127 PM CST...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WAS LOCATED 3 MILES SOUTH OF
ROSE...MOVING NORTHEAST AT 65 MPH. SOME LOCATIONS THAT WILL BE
AFFECTED BY THIS STORM INCLUDE...JAY...LEACH...CHLOETA...ZENA...
CLEORA...GROVE...BERNICE...FAIRLAND...ROSE...DISNEY...TIFF CITY...
BERNICE STATE PARK...LAKE EUCHA STATE PARK AND HONEY CREEK STATE
PARK.

THIS STORM WILL BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING PENNY SIZE HAIL AND WIND
GUSTS OF 40 TO 50 MPH. RESIDENTS IN THESE AREAS SHOULD REMAIN ALERT
IN CASE THE SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY IS UPGRADED TO A WARNING.

LAT...LON 3667 9461 3649 9462 3647 9461 3614 9493
      3618 9512 3678 9491
TIME...MOT...LOC 1927Z 214DEG 55KT 3621 9499

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
129 PM CST TUE JAN 29 2013

OKZ073>075-292015-
HASKELL OK-LATIMER OK-PITTSBURG OK-
129 PM CST TUE JAN 29 2013

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY...

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN TULSA HAS ISSUED A
SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY EFFECTIVE UNTIL 215 PM CST
FOR THE FOLLOWING COUNTIES...

IN SOUTHEAST OKLAHOMA
     SOUTHWESTERN HASKELL...EASTERN PITTSBURG AND LATIMER

AT 129 PM CST...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WAS LOCATED 6 MILES SOUTH OF
HIGGINS...MOVING NORTHEAST AT 65 MPH. SOME LOCATIONS THAT WILL BE
AFFECTED BY THIS STORM INCLUDE...LEWISVILLE...KINTA...WILBURTON...
HIGGINS...DAMON...GOWEN...PANOLA...RED OAK...QUINTON AND ROBBERS CAVE
STATE PARK.

THIS STORM WILL BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING NICKEL SIZE HAIL AND WIND
GUSTS TO 50 MPH. RESIDENTS IN THESE AREAS SHOULD REMAIN ALERT IN CASE
THE SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY IS UPGRADED TO A WARNING.

LAT...LON 3478 9555 3522 9541 3499 9494 3468 9537
      3468 9538
TIME...MOT...LOC 1929Z 213DEG 55KT 3480 9542

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
203 PM CST TUE JAN 29 2013

OKZ072-074-292045-
HASKELL OK-SEQUOYAH OK-
203 PM CST TUE JAN 29 2013

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY...

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN TULSA HAS ISSUED A
SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY EFFECTIVE UNTIL 245 PM CST
FOR THE FOLLOWING COUNTIES...

IN SOUTHEAST OKLAHOMA
     EASTERN HASKELL

IN EAST CENTRAL OKLAHOMA
     SEQUOYAH

AT 203 PM CST...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WAS LOCATED 6 MILES WEST OF
MCCURTAIN...MOVING NORTHEAST AT 60 MPH. SOME LOCATIONS THAT WILL BE
AFFECTED BY THIS STORM INCLUDE...MCCURTAIN...STIGLER...KEOTA...
KANIMA...TAMAHA...SALLISAW...MC KEY...VIAN...BRUSHY...SHORT...MARBLE
CITY AND BRUSHY LAKE STATE PARK.

THIS STORM WILL BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING WIND GUSTS OF  40 TO 50 MPH.
RESIDENTS IN THESE AREAS SHOULD REMAIN ALERT IN CASE THE SIGNIFICANT
WEATHER ADVISORY IS UPGRADED TO A WARNING.

LAT...LON 3557 9448 3535 9474 3535 9477 3532 9482
      3529 9482 3520 9493 3507 9504 3518 9521
      3563 9489
TIME...MOT...LOC 2003Z 215DEG 64KT 3519 9505