Severe Thunderstorm Warning 65, NWS Tulsa, OK

990 
WWUS54 KTSA 160048
SVSTSA

SEVERE WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
748 PM CDT WED MAY 15 2013

OKC121-160100-
/O.CON.KTSA.SV.W.0065.000000T0000Z-130516T0100Z/
PITTSBURG OK-
748 PM CDT WED MAY 15 2013

...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 800 PM CDT FOR
PITTSBURG COUNTY...

AT 746 PM CDT...SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WERE LOCATED ALONG A LINE
EXTENDING FROM 6 MILES NORTH OF SCIPIO TO MCALESTER REGIONAL AIRPORT
TO PITTSBURG...MOVING EAST AT 45 MPH.

STORM HAZARDS INCLUDE...
WIND GUSTS TO 60 MPH...

SOME LOCATIONS IN OR NEAR THE PATH OF THIS STORM INCLUDE...MCALESTER
REGIONAL AIRPORT...MCALESTER...BLANCO...KREBS...ALDERSON...
INDIANOLA...ARROWHEAD STATE PARK...CANADIAN...CROWDER...BLOCKER...
DOW...HAILEYVILLE...HARTSHORNE AND BACHE.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

PEOPLE OUTDOORS SHOULD MOVE INSIDE A STURDY BUILDING. STAY AWAY FROM
WINDOWS AND DOORS UNTIL THE STORM HAS PASSED.

&&

LAT...LON 3468 9589 3476 9595 3495 9593 3508 9598
      3515 9596 3514 9591 3517 9588 3519 9578
      3518 9575 3523 9558 3503 9550 3462 9553
      3459 9561 3459 9588
TIME...MOT...LOC 0048Z 250DEG 39KT 3515 9592 3492 9578
          3467 9583

$$

237 
WWUS54 KTSA 160059
SVSTSA

SEVERE WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
759 PM CDT WED MAY 15 2013

OKC121-160109-
/O.EXP.KTSA.SV.W.0065.000000T0000Z-130516T0100Z/
PITTSBURG OK-
759 PM CDT WED MAY 15 2013

...THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING FOR PITTSBURG COUNTY EXPIRES AT
800 PM CDT...

THE THUNDERSTORM HAS WEAKENED BELOW SEVERE LIMITS...THEREFORE THE
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING WILL BE ALLOWED TO EXPIRE.

GUSTY WINDS AND HEAVY RAIN WILL STILL BE POSSIBLE WITH THIS STORM.

LAT...LON 3468 9589 3476 9595 3495 9593 3508 9598
      3515 9596 3514 9591 3517 9588 3519 9578
      3518 9575 3523 9558 3503 9550 3462 9553
      3459 9561 3459 9588
TIME...MOT...LOC 0059Z 250DEG 39KT 3519 9578 3496 9564
          3471 9569

$$

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
631 PM CDT WED MAY 15 2013

.AVIATION...
CONCERNING TAF SITES KTUL/KRVS/KBVO/KMLC/KXNA/KFYV/KFSM.
SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS ASSOCIATED WITH SLOW MOVING MID-LEVEL
CIRCULATION WILL IMPACT MAINLY THE KMLC AND KFSM TAF SITES
INTO THE EVENING. AREAWIDE...EXPECT MVFR CIGS BECOMING
IFR OVERNIGHT. SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS WILL LIKELY REDEVELOP
LATE TONIGHT ACROSS SOUTHEAST OK...WITH THE ACTIVITY
SPREADING EAST-NORTHEAST INTO AR THURSDAY MORNING.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 342 PM CDT WED MAY 15 2013/

DISCUSSION...
MID LEVEL CIRCULATION LIFTING INTO CENTRAL OKLAHOMA IS IN THE
PROCESS OF CLOSING INTO A MORE DEFINED LOW CENTER...WHICH WILL
VERY SLOWLY TRACK EASTWARD AND MAINTAIN AN INFLUENCE ON THE
REGIONAL WEATHER TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY. ONGOING CONVECTION
ACROSS CENTRAL OK INTO WESTERN AR IS OPERATING IN AN UNSTABLE YET
WEAKLY SHEARED ENVIRONMENT WHICH WILL SUPPORT ISOLATED SVR
POTENTIAL INTO THE EVENING. CONVECTION IS EXPECTED TO BE
MAINTAINED INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS AS A PLUME OF HIGHER MOISTURE
CONTINUES TO BE ADVECTED ALONG THE EASTERN PERIPHERY OF THE UPPER
LOW CENTER. EXPANSIVE CLOUDS / PRECIP WILL CONTINUE THE COOLER
HIGH TEMPS ON THURSDAY.

RIDGING ALOFT STRENGTHENS FRIDAY IN THE WAKE OF THE UPPER LOW WITH
RAPIDLY WARMING LOW LEVEL TEMP PROFILES. THIS WILL ALSO SERVE TO
STRENGTHEN THE LOW LEVEL CAPPING INVERSION WHICH WILL BE IN PLACE
AHEAD OF THE NEXT UPPER TROUGH WHICH WILL BEGIN TO INFLUENCE THE
PLAINS ON SATURDAY. CURRENT DATA FAVORS THE NECESSITY OF
APPRECIABLE SFC BOUNDARIES TO FOCUS STORMS GIVEN THE CAPPED NATURE
OF THE WARM SECTOR...AND THE CLOSEST BOUNDARY TO OUR AREA WILL BE
THE SHARPENING DRYLINE ACROSS WESTERN OK. STORMS WHICH DEVELOP
ALONG THIS ZONE FRIDAY WILL STRUGGLE TO MAKE IT THIS FAR EAST
BEFORE DISSIPATING...WITH THE DRYLINE SHIFTING SLIGHTLY FURTHER
EASTWARD ON SUNDAY WITH THE LIKELIHOOD OF A PASSING SPEED MAX
AIDING INTO STORM DEVELOPMENT. FORECAST SHEAR/INSTABILITY
PARAMETERS WILL FAVOR SUPERCELLS THAT MAY EVOLVE INTO A LARGER
COMPLEX SUNDAY NIGHT...WITH NORTHERN LOCATIONS THE MOST LIKELY TO
BE IMPACTED.

STORM OUTFLOW AND/OR A WEAK COLD FRONT LOOK TO BE IN THE AREA ON
MONDAY...AND AGAIN STRONG INSTABILITY WILL DEVELOP ALONG AND SOUTH
OF THE BOUNDARY. FLOW ALOFT REMAINS STRONG HOWEVER THE LOW LEVEL
FLOW LOOKS TO WEAKEN AND VEER CONSIDERABLY...WITH THIS SCENARIO
FAVORING SVR STORMS INITIALLY ALONG AND NEAR THE BOUNDARY WITH A
TRANSITION TOWARD HEAVY RAIN CONCERNS AS THE BOUNDARY SLOWLY SAGS
SOUTHWARD.

STORM CHANCES MAY LINGER INTO TUESDAY PENDING THE SOUTHWARD PUSH
OF THE SFC BOUNDARY...WHILE THE FLOW ALOFT LOOKS TO TRANSITION TO
UPPER RIDGING AND LESS ACTIVE BY MID/LATE WEEK.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TUL   64  78  66  84 /  70  30  10  10
FSM   64  74  64  80 /  70  60  30  10
MLC   64  74  65  80 /  60  40  10  10
BVO   62  79  62  87 /  70  30  10  10
FYV   61  73  60  80 /  70  50  30  10
BYV   60  72  61  82 /  70  50  30  10
MKO   63  75  63  82 /  70  50  10  10
MIO   63  77  63  85 /  70  40  20  10
F10   64  75  65  81 /  70  30  10  10
HHW   63  76  65  80 /  60  40  20  10

&&

.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...NONE.
AR...NONE.
&&

AVIATION...18

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
711 PM CDT WED MAY 15 2013

ARZ001-002-010-011-019-020-029-OKZ049-053>076-161000-
ADAIR OK-BENTON AR-CARROLL AR-CHEROKEE OK-CHOCTAW OK-CRAIG OK-
CRAWFORD AR-CREEK OK-DELAWARE OK-FRANKLIN AR-HASKELL OK-LATIMER OK-
LE FLORE OK-MADISON AR-MAYES OK-MCINTOSH OK-MUSKOGEE OK-NOWATA OK-
OKFUSKEE OK-OKMULGEE OK-OSAGE OK-OTTAWA OK-PAWNEE OK-PITTSBURG OK-
PUSHMATAHA OK-ROGERS OK-SEBASTIAN AR-SEQUOYAH OK-TULSA OK-WAGONER OK-
WASHINGTON OK-WASHINGTON AR-
711 PM CDT WED MAY 15 2013

THIS OUTLOOK IS FOR NORTHWEST AND WEST CENTRAL ARKANSAS AS WELL AS
MUCH OF EASTERN OKLAHOMA.

.DAY ONE...TONIGHT.

SEVERE THUNDERSTORM.
	RISK...ELEVATED.
	AREA...SOUTHEAST OKLAHOMA.
	ONSET...ONGOING.

FLASH FLOOD.
	RISK...LIMITED.
	AREA...SOUTHEAST OKLAHOMA.
	ONSET...THIS EVENING.

HEAVY RAIN.
	RISK...LIMITED.
	AREA... SOUTHEAST OKLAHOMA.
	ONSET...ONGOING.

DISCUSSION...
SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED
THROUGH TONIGHT ACROSS EASTERN OKLAHOMA AND NORTHWEST ARKANSAS
AS AN UPPER LEVEL LOW CURRENTLY LOCATED OVER WESTERN OKLAHOMA
MOVES EAST ACROSS THE STATE AND IS EXPECTED TO BE OVER EXTREME
NORTHEAST OKLAHOMA LATE TONIGHT. SOME OF THE STORMS THIS EVENING
COULD BE STRONG TO SEVERE WITH LARGE HAIL AND WIND GUSTS TO AROUND
60 MPH THE CONCERN. THERE IS ALSO A SMALL POTENTIAL FOR A BRIEF
TORNADO AS A LINE OF THUNDERSTORMS MOVES ACROSS SOUTHEAST OKLAHOMA
THIS EVENING. LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN IS ALSO A CONCERN WITH
THE STRONGER STORMS AND COULD LEAD TO FLOODING OF LOW LYING AREAS.

SPOTTER AND EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT ACTION STATEMENT...
ACTIVATION OF THE REGIONAL SPOTTER NETWORK LIKELY.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY.
THURSDAY...THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL.
FRIDAY...NO HAZARDS.
SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL.

EXTENDED DISCUSSION...
SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM CHANCES ARE EXPECTED TO BE ONGOING
THURSDAY MORNING ACROSS THE REGION BEFORE THE MAIN UPPER LOW
SHIFTS EAST DURING THE DAY.

THUNDERSTORM CHANCES INCREASE AGAIN OVER THE WEEKEND AS A STRONGER
UPPER LEVEL STORM SYSTEM IS FORECAST TO PUSH OUT OF THE ROCKIES
AND INTO THE SOUTHERN PLAINS ON SUNDAY AND MONDAY.  MODERATE
INSTABILITY...COUPLED WITH STRENGTHENING WIND FIELDS ALOFT SUGGEST
A THREAT FOR SEVERE STORMS BOTH DAYS...INCLUDING THE POSSIBILITY
OF TORNADOES. LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN WILL ALSO BE A CONCERN AS A COLD
FRONT SLOWLY MOVES ACROSS THE AREA. THUNDERSTORM CHANCES
WILL REMAIN POSSIBLE INTO TUESDAY BEFORE THE COLD FRONT FINALLY EXITS THE
REGION.

EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT PLANNING STATEMENT...
PERSONS SHOULD BE PREPARED FOR THE POSSIBILITY OF MULTIPLE ROUNDS
OF SEVERE WEATHER SUNDAY AND MONDAY. TIMING OF THE SEVERE WEATHER
THREATS WILL CONTINUE TO BE REFINED WITH TIME.

WWW.SRH.NOAA.GOV/TULSA CONTAINS ADDITIONAL INFORMATION.

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
409 PM CDT WED MAY 15 2013

OKZ053-152200-
CHOCTAW OK-
409 PM CDT WED MAY 15 2013

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY...

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN TULSA HAS ISSUED A
SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY EFFECTIVE UNTIL 500 PM CDT
FOR THE FOLLOWING COUNTY...

IN SOUTHEAST OKLAHOMA
     EASTERN CHOCTAW

AT 410 PM CDT...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WAS LOCATED 7 MILES SOUTHWEST
OF ORD...MOVING NORTHEAST AT 35 MPH. SOME LOCATIONS THAT WILL BE
AFFECTED BY THIS STORM INCLUDE...HUGO...ORD...FROGVILLE...GRANT...
GOODLAND...SAWYER...FORT TOWSON...SWINK...MESSER...HUSKEY...FALLON...
APPLE...HUGO LAKE STATE PARK AND RAYMOND GARY STATE PARK.

THIS STORM WILL BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING NICKEL SIZE HAIL AND WIND
GUSTS TO 50 MPH. RESIDENTS IN THESE AREAS SHOULD REMAIN ALERT IN CASE
THE SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY IS UPGRADED TO A WARNING.

LAT...LON 3388 9547 3387 9551 3389 9551 3388 9555
      3393 9557 3392 9562 3414 9550 3415 9515
      3409 9515 3387 9530 3388 9533 3387 9534
      3386 9542
TIME...MOT...LOC 2110Z 209DEG 30KT 3385 9553

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
434 PM CDT WED MAY 15 2013

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0430 PM     HAIL             HUGO                    34.01N 95.51W
05/15/2013  E1.00 INCH       CHOCTAW            OK   TRAINED SPOTTER

&&

RJS

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
443 PM CDT WED MAY 15 2013

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0420 PM     HAIL             GRANT                   33.94N 95.51W
05/15/2013  E0.88 INCH       CHOCTAW            OK   PUBLIC

            ABOUT NICKEL SIZE HAIL FELL AT THE CHOCTAW CASINO.

&&

AEJ

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
501 PM CDT WED MAY 15 2013

OKZ065-152230-
OKFUSKEE OK-
501 PM CDT WED MAY 15 2013

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY...

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN TULSA HAS ISSUED A
SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY EFFECTIVE UNTIL 530 PM CDT
FOR THE FOLLOWING COUNTY...

IN EAST CENTRAL OKLAHOMA
     SOUTHEASTERN OKFUSKEE

AT 502 PM CDT...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WAS LOCATED 10 MILES SOUTH OF
BEARDEN...MOVING NORTHEAST AT 15 MPH. SOME LOCATIONS THAT WILL BE
AFFECTED BY THIS STORM INCLUDE...OKEMAH...WELEETKA...BEARDEN AND
CLEARVIEW.

THIS STORM WILL BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING PENNY SIZE HAIL AND WIND
GUSTS TO 40 MPH. RESIDENTS IN THESE AREAS SHOULD REMAIN ALERT IN CASE
THE SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY IS UPGRADED TO A WARNING.

LAT...LON 3537 9645 3555 9630 3534 9604 3528 9614
      3528 9643 3529 9645
TIME...MOT...LOC 2202Z 224DEG 13KT 3522 9641

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
637 PM CDT WED MAY 15 2013

OKZ070-071-160015-
MCINTOSH OK-MUSKOGEE OK-
637 PM CDT WED MAY 15 2013

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY...

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN TULSA HAS ISSUED A
SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY EFFECTIVE UNTIL 715 PM CDT
FOR THE FOLLOWING COUNTIES...

IN SOUTHEAST OKLAHOMA
     NORTHERN MCINTOSH

IN EAST CENTRAL OKLAHOMA
     MUSKOGEE

AT 637 PM CDT...STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WERE LOCATED ALONG A LINE
EXTENDING FROM 2 MILES NORTHWEST OF STIDHAM TO 4 MILES SOUTHWEST OF
PORUM...MOVING NORTHEAST AT 30 MPH. SOME LOCATIONS THAT WILL BE
AFFECTED BY THESE STORMS INCLUDE...CHECOTAH...STIDHAM...ONAPA...
PIERCE...RENTIESVILLE...MUSKOGEE...COUNCIL HILL...PORUM...WARNER...
OKTAHA...KEEFETON...WAINWRIGHT...BOYNTON...SUMMIT...BRAGGS...LAKE
EUFAULA STATE PARK AND GREENLEAF STATE PARK.

THESE STORMS WILL BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING PENNY SIZE HAIL AND WIND
GUSTS TO 40 MPH.

LAT...LON 3555 9574 3556 9571 3562 9572 3575 9567
      3574 9513 3531 9524 3531 9537 3533 9539
      3531 9542 3533 9582
TIME...MOT...LOC 2337Z 205DEG 27KT 3541 9571 3535 9530