Severe Thunderstorm Warning 58, NWS Tulsa, OK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
947 PM CDT FRI APR 26 2013

.DISCUSSION...
THE CURRENT FORECAST IS ON TRACK FOR THE MOST PART. HAVE UPDATED
POPS...TEMPS AND DEWPOINTS FOR TONIGHT TO REFLECT CURRENT
CONDITIONS BUT EVERYTHING ELSE IS ON TRACK. THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY
HAS SAGGED SOUTH OF THE RED RIVER BUT ELEVATED SEVERE STORMS WILL
MOVE INTO THE AREA FROM THE WEST SHORTLY. THE NEW SEVERE
THUNDERSTORM WATCH DEPICTS THE THREAT AREA WELL.

UPDATE ON THE WAY.

&&

.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...NONE.
AR...NONE.

&&

SHORT TERM...06
LONG TERM....05

PLATE

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
529 PM CDT FRI APR 26 2013

ARZ001-002-010-011-019-020-029-OKZ049-053>076-271000-
ADAIR OK-BENTON AR-CARROLL AR-CHEROKEE OK-CHOCTAW OK-CRAIG OK-
CRAWFORD AR-CREEK OK-DELAWARE OK-FRANKLIN AR-HASKELL OK-LATIMER OK-
LE FLORE OK-MADISON AR-MAYES OK-MCINTOSH OK-MUSKOGEE OK-NOWATA OK-
OKFUSKEE OK-OKMULGEE OK-OSAGE OK-OTTAWA OK-PAWNEE OK-PITTSBURG OK-
PUSHMATAHA OK-ROGERS OK-SEBASTIAN AR-SEQUOYAH OK-TULSA OK-WAGONER OK-
WASHINGTON OK-WASHINGTON AR-
529 PM CDT FRI APR 26 2013

THIS OUTLOOK IS FOR NORTHWEST AND WEST CENTRAL ARKANSAS AS WELL AS
MUCH OF EASTERN OKLAHOMA.

.DAY ONE...TONIGHT.
TORNADO.
	RISK...LIMITED.
	AREA...PARTS OF EAST CENTRAL OKLAHOMA.
	ONSET...AFTER 10 PM.

SEVERE THUNDERSTORM.
	RISK...ELEVATED.
	AREA...ALONG AND SOUTH OF INTERSTATE 44.
	ONSET...AFTER 10 PM.

FLASH FLOOD.
	RISK...LIMITED.
	AREA...EAST CENTRAL AND SOUTHEAST OKLAHOMA.
	ONSET...AFTER 10 PM.

HEAVY RAIN.
	RISK...LIMITED.
	AREA...EAST CENTRAL AND SOUTHEAST OKLAHOMA.
	ONSET...AFTER 10 PM.

DISCUSSION...
A WARM FRONT ACROSS FAR SOUTHEAST OKLAHOMA MAY LIFT NORTH THIS
EVENING TO NEAR THE INTERSTATE 40 CORRIDOR. THUNDERSTORMS ARE
CURRENTLY DEVELOPING IN FAR NORTHWEST OKLAHOMA AND THESE STORMS
WILL BUILD SOUTHEAST WITH TIME THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT. AT THIS
TIME...IT APPEARS THAT THE GREATEST POTENTIAL FOR DISCRETE STORMS
WILL BE ACROSS A SMALL PART OF EAST CENTRAL OKLAHOMA LATE THIS
EVENING...MAINLY ACROSS PARTS OF OKFUSKEE...OKMULGEE...MCINTOSH
AND PITTSBURG COUNTIES. VERY LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS MAY
OCCUR IN THIS AREA...AND IF THE WARM FRONT LIFTS FAR ENOUGH
NORTH...A TORNADO CANNOT BE RULED OUT. BY AROUND MIDNIGHT...IT
APPEARS THE STORMS WILL BECOME MORE LINEAR AND AFFECT A LARGE PART
OF EAST CENTRAL AND SOUTHEAST OKLAHOMA AND NORTHWEST ARKANSAS. A
DAMAGING WIND AND LARGE HAIL THREAT WILL CONTINUE WITH THESE
STORMS. LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL WITH THE STORMS MAY ALSO RESULT IN
SOME LOCALIZED FLOODING.

SPOTTER AND EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT ACTION STATEMENT...
ACTIVATION OF THE REGIONAL SPOTTER NETWORK LIKELY.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY.
SATURDAY...THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL.
SUNDAY AND MONDAY...NO HAZARDS.
TUESDAY...THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL.
WEDNESDAY...THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL...HIGH WIND POTENTIAL.
THURSDAY...NO HAZARDS.

EXTENDED DISCUSSION...
STORMS MAY LINGER INTO SATURDAY MORNING BUT OTHERWISE DRY AND MILD
WEATHER WILL PREVAIL OVER THE WEEKEND. THUNDERSTORM CHANCES WILL
RETURN AROUND THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK AS A STRONG COLD FRONT MOVES
INTO THE AREA.

WWW.SRH.NOAA.GOV/TULSA CONTAINS ADDITIONAL INFORMATION.