Severe Thunderstorm Warning 255, NWS Tulsa, OK

687 
WWUS54 KTSA 121851
SVSTSA

SEVERE WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
151 PM CDT MON AUG 12 2013

ARC047-087-121901-
/O.EXP.KTSA.SV.W.0255.000000T0000Z-130812T1900Z/
FRANKLIN AR-MADISON AR-
151 PM CDT MON AUG 12 2013

...THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING FOR SOUTHERN MADISON AND
NORTHEASTERN FRANKLIN COUNTIES EXPIRES AT 200 PM CDT...

THE THUNDERSTORM HAS WEAKENED BELOW SEVERE LIMITS...THEREFORE THE
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING WILL BE ALLOWED TO EXPIRE.

GUSTY WINDS...SMALL HAIL AND HEAVY RAIN WILL STILL BE POSSIBLE WITH
THIS STORM.

LAT...LON 3576 9359 3576 9369 3566 9369 3568 9396
      3573 9396 3573 9392 3576 9390 3576 9396
      3587 9395 3587 9358
TIME...MOT...LOC 1851Z 273DEG 20KT 3577 9376

$$

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
1158 AM CDT MON AUG 12 2013

.AVIATION...
CONCERNING TAF SITES KTUL/KRVS/KBVO/KMLC/KXNA/KFYV/KFSM.
TIMING OF EXPECTED PERIODS OF TSRA WILL BE PROBLEMATIC THROUGH THE
TAF PERIOD...MAINLY ACROSS THE NE OK AND NW AR TAF SITES. FIRST OF
SEVERAL PERIODS OF TSRA WILL IMPACT THE AFOREMENTIONED SITES FOR
THE FIRST FEW HOURS THIS AFTERNOON...WITH ADDITIONAL CHANCES
OVERNIGHT. MVFR VSBYS THE PREVAILING RESTRICTION THROUGHOUT THE
TAF PERIOD. AT THIS TIME...WILL GO WITH PROB 30S FOR THE LAST HALF
OF THE TAF PERIOD AT ALL SITES.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1016 AM CDT MON AUG 12 2013/

DISCUSSION...
THE FIRST OF WHAT IS LIKELY TO BE SEVERAL ROUNDS OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS UNDERWAY ACROSS PORTIONS OF NE OK. MOST OF TODAYS
ACTIVITY WILL STAY NORTH OF A SURFACE BOUNDARY THAT IS ROUGHLY
ALONG/JUST NORTH OF THE INTERSTATE 40 CORRIDOR. HAVE MADE
SLIGHT ADJUSTMENTS TO POPS BASED ON CURRENT RADAR TRENDS...BUT
OVERALL THEME OF LIKELY POPS TO REMAIN IN PLACE ACROSS NRN ZONES.
HAVE ALSO UPPED SKY COVER ACROSS THE NORTH IN THE AFTERNOON...AND
MADE ADJUSTMENTS TO HIGH TEMPERATURES BASED ON EXPECTED CLOUDS AND
PRECIP. CURRENT FLASH FLOOD WATCH LOOKS GOOD AND WILL BE LEFT AS IS.

UPDATED ZFP/PFM/AFM OUT SHORTLY.

&&

.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...FLASH FLOOD WATCH UNTIL 7 PM TUESDAY FOR OKZ054-OKZ055-OKZ056-
     OKZ057-OKZ058-OKZ059-OKZ060-OKZ061-OKZ062-OKZ063-OKZ064-
     OKZ065-OKZ066-OKZ067-OKZ068-OKZ069-OKZ070-OKZ071-OKZ072-
     OKZ073-OKZ074-OKZ075-OKZ076.

AR...FLASH FLOOD WATCH UNTIL 7 PM TUESDAY FOR ARZ001-ARZ002-ARZ010-
     ARZ011-ARZ019-ARZ020-ARZ029.

&&

SHORT TERM...99
LONG TERM....99
AVIATION...23

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
1255 PM CDT MON AUG 12 2013

ARZ001-002-010-011-019-020-029-OKZ049-053>076-131000-
ADAIR OK-BENTON AR-CARROLL AR-CHEROKEE OK-CHOCTAW OK-CRAIG OK-
CRAWFORD AR-CREEK OK-DELAWARE OK-FRANKLIN AR-HASKELL OK-LATIMER OK-
LE FLORE OK-MADISON AR-MAYES OK-MCINTOSH OK-MUSKOGEE OK-NOWATA OK-
OKFUSKEE OK-OKMULGEE OK-OSAGE OK-OTTAWA OK-PAWNEE OK-PITTSBURG OK-
PUSHMATAHA OK-ROGERS OK-SEBASTIAN AR-SEQUOYAH OK-TULSA OK-WAGONER OK-
WASHINGTON OK-WASHINGTON AR-
1255 PM CDT MON AUG 12 2013

THIS OUTLOOK IS FOR NORTHWEST AND WEST CENTRAL ARKANSAS AS WELL AS
MUCH OF EASTERN OKLAHOMA.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT.

SEVERE THUNDERSTORM.
	RISK...ELEVATED.
	AREA...PRIMARILY ALONG AND NORTH OF INTERSTATE 40.
	ONSET...ONGOING.

FLASH FLOOD.
	RISK...ELEVATED.
	AREA...NORTHEAST OKLAHOMA AND NORTHWEST ARKANSAS.
	ONSET...AFTERNOON.

DANGEROUS HEAT.
	RISK...LIMITED.
	AREA...SOUTHEAST OKLAHOMA.
	ONSET...AFTERNOON.

DISCUSSION...
ADDITIONAL SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS HAVE DEVELOPED IN THE VICINITY
OF A SURFACE BOUNDARY THAT BECOME THE FOCUS THIS AFTERNOON. A
RISK OF SEVERE WEATHER WILL REMAIN IN PLACE THIS AFTERNOON AND
EVENING. THE BEST CHANCES FOR A SEVERE STORM WILL BE THE VICINITY
OF THE INTERSTATE 40 CORRIDOR WHERE GREATER INSTABILITY WILL BE IN
PLACE. DAMAGING WINDS WILL BE THE PRIMARY SEVERE RISK.

LATER TONIGHT...THUNDERSTORMS ARE ONCE AGAIN EXPECTED TO INCREASE
IN COVERAGE ALONG AND NORTH OF THE BOUNDARY...ALONG WITH A WITH A
LIMITED RISK OF SEVERE WEATHER. REPEATED ROUNDS OF THUNDERSTORMS
WILL RAISE THE POTENTIAL FOR EXCESSIVE RAINFALL...THEREFORE A
FLOOD WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR MUCH OF EASTERN OKLAHOMA AND
WESTERN ARKANSAS.

SPOTTER AND EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT ACTION STATEMENT...
LOCAL SPOTTER ACTIVATION MAY BE NEEDED.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY.
TUESDAY...THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL...HEAVY RAIN POTENTIAL.
WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY...THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL.
FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...NO HAZARDS.

EXTENDED DISCUSSION...
THUNDERSTORMS ARE LIKELY TO BE ONGOING TUESDAY MORNING WITH
A RISK OF BOTH SEVERE WEATHER AND FLASH FLOODING.  ADDITIONAL
STORMS ARE LIKELY TO DEVELOP TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY...
WHILE SHIFTING SLIGHTLY FURTHER SOUTH ALONG WITH THE SLOW MOVING
SURFACE FRONT. THE FRONT IS LIKELY TO PUSH NEAR THE RED RIVER BY EARLY
THURSDAY...WITH DRY AND MILD WEATHER PREVAILING FOR LATE WEEK.

WWW.SRH.NOAA.GOV/TULSA CONTAINS ADDITIONAL INFORMATION.

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
1243 PM CDT MON AUG 12 2013

ARZ010-011-121815-
MADISON AR-WASHINGTON AR-
1243 PM CDT MON AUG 12 2013

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY...

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN TULSA HAS ISSUED A
SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY EFFECTIVE UNTIL 115 PM CDT
FOR THE FOLLOWING COUNTIES...

IN NORTHWEST ARKANSAS
     NORTHWESTERN MADISON AND NORTHEASTERN WASHINGTON

AT 1243 PM CDT...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WAS LOCATED OVER SONORA...
MOVING EAST AT 25 MPH. SOME LOCATIONS THAT WILL BE AFFECTED BY THIS
STORM INCLUDE...HARMONY...MAYFIELD...HUNTSVILLE...HINDSVILLE...
FORUM...BEST...CLIFTY...SPRINGDALE...GOSHEN...SONORA AND WITHROW
SPRINGS STATE PARK.

THIS STORM WILL BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING PENNY SIZE HAIL AND WIND
GUSTS TO 40 MPH. RESIDENTS IN THESE AREAS SHOULD REMAIN ALERT IN CASE
THE SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY IS UPGRADED TO A WARNING.

LAT...LON 3604 9370 3606 9413 3621 9413 3621 9401
      3623 9401 3624 9392 3623 9388 3624 9387
      3626 9370
TIME...MOT...LOC 1743Z 271DEG 21KT 3616 9406

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
126 PM CDT MON AUG 12 2013

ARZ011-020-121900-
FRANKLIN AR-MADISON AR-
126 PM CDT MON AUG 12 2013

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY...

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN TULSA HAS ISSUED A
SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY EFFECTIVE UNTIL 200 PM CDT
FOR THE FOLLOWING COUNTIES...

IN WEST CENTRAL ARKANSAS
     NORTHEASTERN FRANKLIN

IN NORTHWEST ARKANSAS
     SOUTHERN MADISON

AT 126 PM CDT...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WAS LOCATED 4 MILES SOUTHWEST
OF PATRICK...MOVING EAST AT 20 MPH. SOME LOCATIONS THAT WILL BE
AFFECTED BY THIS STORM INCLUDE...SAINT PAUL...PETTIGREW...COMBS...
BRASHEARS...DUTTON...PATRICK...BOSTON...DELANEY AND CROSSES.

THIS STORM WILL BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING NICKEL SIZE HAIL AND WIND
GUSTS TO 50 MPH. RESIDENTS IN THESE AREAS SHOULD REMAIN ALERT IN CASE
THE SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY IS UPGRADED TO A WARNING.

LAT...LON 3576 9356 3576 9369 3568 9369 3572 9395
      3573 9395 3573 9392 3576 9390 3576 9395
      3589 9393 3588 9355
TIME...MOT...LOC 1826Z 273DEG 19KT 3579 9389