Severe Thunderstorm Warning 195, NWS Tulsa, OK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
311 PM CDT WED JUL 10 2013

.DISCUSSION...
ANOTHER HOT DAY WELL UNDERWAY ACROSS EASTERN OKLAHOMA AND
NORTHWEST ARKANSAS EVEN AS A COLD FRONT HAS MOVED INTO THE
AREA. THE COLD FRONT CURRENTLY EXTENDS FROM NEAR KSTL TO
NEAR KRVS WITH ANOTHER WEAK TROF OF LOW PRESSURE ACROSS
NORTHWEST ARKANSAS. SHOWERS AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS HAVE DEVELOPED
THIS AFTERNOON IN THE VICINITY OF THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY. THE CHANCES
OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE NEAR THE BOUNDARY INTO
THIS EVENING. THERE IS ALSO SOME POTENTIAL FOR THE ACTIVITY TO
CONTINUE INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. THERE IS THE POTENTIAL FOR
SOME OF THE STORMS TO BECOME SEVERE LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING
WITH WIND GUSTS APPROACHING 80 MPH WITH THE STRONGEST STORMS.

WILL TRIM SOME COUNTIES OFF OF THE HEAT ADVISORY AND LET THE
EXCESSIVE HEAT WARNING FOR TULSA COUNTY EXPIRE AT 01Z. WILL KEEP
THE COUNTIES SOUTH OF THE BOUNDARY IN A HEAT ADVISORY THAT WILL
CONTINUE THROUGH THURSDAY AFTERNOON. MAY SEE ISOLATED SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE AREA ON THURSDAY AS THE BOUNDARY
LINGERS.

WILL KEEP THE FORECAST FROM FRIDAY INTO THE MIDDLE OF NEXT
WEEK DRY WITH TEMPERATURES AT OR SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL FOR
THIS TIME OF YEAR. THE MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW THE UPPER LEVEL
LOW CURRENTLY AFFECTING SOUTH FLORIDA MOVING WEST ACROSS SOUTH
TEXAS OVER THE WEEKEND SHOVING THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE CURRENTLY
OVER OUR AREA TO THE NORTH. THE UPPER LEVEL LOW LOOKS TO BE TOO
FAR SOUTH TO BRING ANY SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORMS TO THE AREA.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TUL   75  96  74  97 /  30  20   0  10
FSM   76  97  73  94 /  20  20   0  10
MLC   75 100  75  97 /  20  20  20  10
BVO   72  94  70  96 /  20  20   0  10
FYV   70  92  67  90 /  20  20  10  10
BYV   70  90  65  88 /  20  20  10  10
MKO   75  97  73  95 /  30  20   0  10
MIO   72  93  69  93 /  20  20   0  10
F10   75  98  75  96 /  30  20  20  10
HHW   76  99  75  97 /  20  20  20  10

&&

.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...EXCESSIVE HEAT WARNING UNTIL 8 PM WEDNESDAY FOR OKZ060.

     HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM WEDNESDAY FOR OKZ054-OKZ055-OKZ056-
     OKZ057-OKZ058-OKZ059-OKZ061-OKZ062-OKZ063-OKZ067-OKZ068-
     OKZ069-OKZ072.

     HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM THURSDAY FOR OKZ049-OKZ053-OKZ064-
     OKZ065-OKZ066-OKZ070-OKZ071-OKZ073-OKZ074-OKZ075-OKZ076.

AR...HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM WEDNESDAY FOR ARZ001-ARZ002-ARZ010-
     ARZ011-ARZ019-ARZ020-ARZ029.

&&

SHORT TERM...30
LONG TERM....10

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
107 PM CDT WED JUL 10 2013

ARZ001-002-010-011-019-020-029-OKZ049-053>076-111000-
ADAIR OK-BENTON AR-CARROLL AR-CHEROKEE OK-CHOCTAW OK-CRAIG OK-
CRAWFORD AR-CREEK OK-DELAWARE OK-FRANKLIN AR-HASKELL OK-LATIMER OK-
LE FLORE OK-MADISON AR-MAYES OK-MCINTOSH OK-MUSKOGEE OK-NOWATA OK-
OKFUSKEE OK-OKMULGEE OK-OSAGE OK-OTTAWA OK-PAWNEE OK-PITTSBURG OK-
PUSHMATAHA OK-ROGERS OK-SEBASTIAN AR-SEQUOYAH OK-TULSA OK-WAGONER OK-
WASHINGTON OK-WASHINGTON AR-
107 PM CDT WED JUL 10 2013

THIS OUTLOOK IS FOR NORTHWEST AND WEST CENTRAL ARKANSAS AS WELL AS
MUCH OF EASTERN OKLAHOMA.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT.

SEVERE THUNDERSTORM.
	RISK...LIMITED.
	AREA...EASTERN OKLAHOMA AND NORTHWEST ARKANSAS.
	ONSET...MID TO LATE AFTERNOON.

DANGEROUS HEAT.
	RISK...ELEVATED.
	AREA...EASTERN OKLAHOMA AND NORTHWEST ARKANSAS.
	ONSET...ONGOING.

DISCUSSION...
HEAT AND HUMIDITY WILL MAXIMIZE THIS AFTERNOON IN ADVANCE OF A
SLOW MOVING COOL FRONT DRIFTING SOUTH FROM KANSAS. HEAT INDEX
READINGS WILL LIKELY REACH 105 TO 110 AT MOST LOCATIONS.

SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP THIS AFTERNOON IN
THE VICINITY OF THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY STRETCHED WEST TO EAST ACROSS
NORTHEAST OKLAHOMA AND FAR NORTHWEST ARKANSAS. THE AREA NORTH OF
INTERSTATE 40 WILL BE MOST VULNERABLE. LARGE POTENTIAL ENERGY WITH
THESE STORMS...COMBINED WITH SIGNIFICANT TEMPERATURE DEWPOINT
SPREADS AT LOWER LEVELS SUGGESTS THE POSSIBILITY FOR LOCALIZED
DAMAGING DOWNBURST WINDS. ORGANIZED CONVECTION IS NOT EXPECTED.

SPOTTER AND EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT ACTION STATEMENT...
LOCAL SPOTTER ACTIVATION MAY BE NEEDED.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY.
THURSDAY AND FRIDAY...DANGEROUS HEAT POTENTIAL.
SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...NO HAZARDS.

EXTENDED DISCUSSION...
MARGINAL THUNDERSTORM CHANCES WILL CONTINUE INTO THURSDAY AS THE
WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY REMAINS IN THE AREA. TEMPERATURES THURSDAY
AND FRIDAY WILL BE COOLER THAN TODAY BUT STILL IN THE MID TO UPPER
90S IN EASTERN OKLAHOMA AND THE ARKANSAS RIVER VALLEY IN WEST
CENTRAL ARKANSAS.

WWW.SRH.NOAA.GOV/TULSA CONTAINS ADDITIONAL INFORMATION.

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
313 PM CDT WED JUL 10 2013

OKZ066-070-071-102045-
MCINTOSH OK-MUSKOGEE OK-OKMULGEE OK-
313 PM CDT WED JUL 10 2013

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY...

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN TULSA HAS ISSUED A
SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY EFFECTIVE UNTIL 345 PM CDT
FOR THE FOLLOWING COUNTIES...

IN SOUTHEAST OKLAHOMA
     NORTHERN MCINTOSH

IN EAST CENTRAL OKLAHOMA
     WESTERN MUSKOGEE

IN NORTHEAST OKLAHOMA
     EASTERN OKMULGEE

AT 313 PM CDT...A CLUSTER OF THUNDERSTORMS WERE LOCATED 3 MILES
NORTH OF MORRIS...MOVING SOUTH AT 25 MPH. SOME LOCATIONS THAT WILL
BE AFFECTED BY THIS STORM
INCLUDE...HOFFMAN...GRAYSON...MORRIS...ERAM...BALD HILL...HITCHITA
AND COUNCIL HILL.

THESE STORMS WILL BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING WIND GUSTS TO 40 MPH.

LAT...LON 3576 9577 3572 9577 3572 9572 3573 9569
      3548 9560 3543 9592 3573 9594
TIME...MOT...LOC 2013Z 345DEG 23KT 3564 9584

LACY

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
319 PM CDT WED JUL 10 2013

OKZ065-102045-
OKFUSKEE OK-
319 PM CDT WED JUL 10 2013

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY...

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN TULSA HAS ISSUED A
SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY EFFECTIVE UNTIL 345 PM CDT
FOR THE FOLLOWING COUNTY...

IN EAST CENTRAL OKLAHOMA
     CENTRAL OKFUSKEE

AT 319 PM CDT...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WAS LOCATED 3 MILES WEST OF
MASON...MOVING SOUTHEAST AT 20 MPH. SOME LOCATIONS THAT WILL BE
AFFECTED BY THIS STORM INCLUDE...OKEMAH...BEARDEN...CLEARVIEW...
PHAROAH...CASTLE...MASON...OKFUSKEE AND WELTY.

THIS STORM WILL BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING WIND GUSTS TO 45 MPH.

LAT...LON 3564 9622 3559 9619 3555 9619 3555 9616
      3543 9608 3530 9642 3538 9645 3545 9645
      3545 9647 3564 9653
TIME...MOT...LOC 2019Z 332DEG 18KT 3558 9640

LACY

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