Severe Thunderstorm Warning 181, NWS Tulsa, OK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
617 PM CDT SUN JUN 16 2013

.AVIATION...
CONCERNING TAF SITES KTUL/KRVS/KBVO/KMLC/KXNA/KFYV/KFSM.
FOR THE 0Z TAFS... THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE AREA FOR
THE NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS UNTIL THE LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING. IT
CURRENTLY APPEARS THAT STORMS WILL NOT DIRECTLY AFFECT ANY TAF
SITES... SO WILL HAVE ONLY VCTS IN TAFS. OTHERWISE... VFR
CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL AT ALL SITES OVERNIGHT. BETTER CHANCES FOR
THUNDERSTORMS WILL OCCUR LATER IN THE FORECAST AS A THUNDERSTORM
COMPLEX MOVES ACROSS THE REGION EARLY MONDAY MORNING. TEMPO
GROUPS IN ALL TAFS FRAME THIS POTENTIAL ACTIVITY.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 247 PM CDT SUN JUN 16 2013/

DISCUSSION...

ISOLATED TO SCATTERED DIURNAL THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY IS BEGINNING
TO DEVELOP ACROSS PARTS OF EASTERN OKLAHOMA AND NORTHWEST
ARKANSAS...AND SHOULD CONTINUE THROUGH THE REST OF THE AFTERNOON
AND INTO EARLY EVENING...WITH COVERAGE DECREASING WITH THE LOSS OF
DAYTIME HEATING. ISOLATED SEVERE WIND GUSTS AND HAIL COULD OCCUR
WITH THE STRONGEST STORMS...BUT WITH WEAK WIND SHEAR
PRESENT...THERE SHOULD NOT BE A LOT OF ORGANIZED SEVERE WEATHER.

LATE TONIGHT AND EARLY TOMORROW MORNING...ONE OR MORE STORM
COMPLEXES SHOULD DEVELOP ACROSS KANSAS AND MOVE TO THE SOUTH AND
SOUTHEAST ACROSS PORTIONS OF EASTERN OKLAHOMA AND NORTHWEST
ARKANSAS. THE BIGGEST SEVERE THREAT WILL BE DAMAGING WINDS...WITH
MARGINALLY SEVERE HAIL...HEAVY RAIN AND LOCALIZED FLOODING ALSO
LIKELY.

THE SEVERE STORM THREAT WILL CONTINUE INTO MONDAY
AFTERNOON...ESPECIALLY ACROSS AREAS TO THE SOUTH OF ANY OUTFLOW
BOUNDARIES REMAINING FROM THE MORNING STORMS. PLENTY OF
INSTABILITY AND INCREASED WIND SHEAR DURING THE AFTERNOON WILL
KEEP A THREAT OF LARGE HAIL AND WINDS WITH ANY AFTERNOON/EVENING
STORMS.

COOLER TEMPERATURES AND LOW STORM CHANCES WILL REMAIN ACROSS THE
AREA THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF THIS WEEK. THE RIDGE WILL STRENGTHEN
ACROSS THE REGION TOWARD THE END OF THE WEEK AND INTO THE
WEEKEND...BRINGING BACK THE HOT AND DRY WEATHER.

&&

.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...NONE.
AR...NONE.
&&

SHORT TERM...99
LONG TERM....99
AVIATION...06

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
501 PM CDT SUN JUN 16 2013

ARZ001-002-010-011-019-020-029-OKZ049-053>076-171015-
ADAIR OK-BENTON AR-CARROLL AR-CHEROKEE OK-CHOCTAW OK-CRAIG OK-
CRAWFORD AR-CREEK OK-DELAWARE OK-FRANKLIN AR-HASKELL OK-LATIMER OK-
LE FLORE OK-MADISON AR-MAYES OK-MCINTOSH OK-MUSKOGEE OK-NOWATA OK-
OKFUSKEE OK-OKMULGEE OK-OSAGE OK-OTTAWA OK-PAWNEE OK-PITTSBURG OK-
PUSHMATAHA OK-ROGERS OK-SEBASTIAN AR-SEQUOYAH OK-TULSA OK-WAGONER OK-
WASHINGTON OK-WASHINGTON AR-
501 PM CDT SUN JUN 16 2013

THIS OUTLOOK IS FOR NORTHWEST AND WEST CENTRAL ARKANSAS AS WELL AS
MUCH OF EASTERN OKLAHOMA.

.DAY ONE...THIS EVENING AND TONIGHT.

SEVERE THUNDERSTORM.
	RISK...ELEVATED.
	AREA...EASTERN OKLAHOMA AND NORTHWEST ARKANSAS.
	ONSET...ONGOING. ADDITIONAL FOR NORTHEAST OKLAHOMA AFTER
                MIDNIGHT.

FLASH FLOOD.
	RISK...ELEVATED.
	AREA...EASTERN OKLAHOMA AND NORTHWEST ARKANSAS.
	ONSET...ONGOING.

HEAVY RAIN.
	RISK...LIMITED.
	AREA...EASTERN OKLAHOMA AND NORTHWEST ARKANSAS.
	ONSET...ONGOING.

DISCUSSION...
ISOLATED TO SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUE TO DEVELOP AND SPREAD
ACROSS PORTIONS OF EASTERN OKLAHOMA AND NORTHWEST ARKANSAS THIS
AFTERNOON. SOME OF THE THUNDERSTORMS HAVE BECOME STRONG TO SEVERE
WITH HAIL AND WINDS. VERY HEAVY DOWNPOURS WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE
WITHIN THE STRONGER STORMS...WHICH COULD CREATE FLASH FLOODING
CONDITIONS. THIS ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH THE
AFTERNOON HOURS BEFORE DISSIPATING THIS EVENING WITH THE LOSS OF
DAYTIME HEATING.

THE GREATER SEVERE POTENTIAL WILL BE ACROSS NORTHEAST OKLAHOMA
AFTER MIDNIGHT TONIGHT. ONE OR MORE THUNDERSTORM COMPLEXES ARE
EXPECTED TO ORGANIZE AND MOVE INTO THE AREA FROM THE NORTHWEST.
DAMAGING WINDS WILL BE THE PRIMARY HAZARD...ALONG WITH SOME
MARGINALLY SEVERE HAIL IN THE STRONGER CORES.

GIVEN THE AMOUNT OF MOISTURE AVAILABLE IN THE ATMOSPHERE FOR
STORMS TO WORK WITH...HEAVY RAINFALL RATES WILL BE THE RESULT. IF
STORMS END UP TRAINING OVER THE SAME AREAS...SEVERAL INCHES OF
RAINFALL COULD FALL IN A SHORT PERIOD OF TIME. THIS COULD LEAD TO
LOCALIZED FLOODING...ESPECIALLY IN LOW LYING AREAS.

SPOTTER AND EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT ACTION STATEMENT...
ACTIVATION OF THE REGIONAL SPOTTER NETWORK LIKELY.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY.
MONDAY...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL.
TUESDAY...THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL.
WEDNESDAY...THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL.
THURSDAY...NO HAZARDS.
FRIDAY...DANGEROUS HEAT POTENTIAL.
SATURDAY...DANGEROUS HEAT POTENTIAL.

EXTENDED DISCUSSION...
A LARGE COMPLEX OF THUNDERSTORMS WILL LIKELY BE ONGOING IN THE
MORNING. AN OUTFLOW REINFORCED EAST-WEST ORIENTED FRONTAL
BOUNDARY WILL LIKELY BE LAID OUT OVER OKLAHOMA AND ARKANSAS ON
MONDAY AFTERNOON. ALONG AND SOUTH OF THE BOUNDARY...THE ATMOSPHERE
WILL BE VERY UNSTABLE...AND COMBINE THIS WITH INCREASING
NORTHWESTERLY DEEP LAYER SHEAR...THE POTENTIAL FOR SEVERE STORMS
INCREASES. VERY LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS WILL BE THE PRIMARY
HAZARDS. IF A DISCRETE SUPERCELL CAN DEVELOP...THEN AN ISOLATED
TORNADO IS POSSIBLE AS WELL.

THE STALLED FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL CONTINUE TO BE THE FOCUS FOR
THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY THROUGH WEDNESDAY.

RIDGING WILL BUILD OVER THE REGION ALOFT...AND THIS WILL PUT AN
END TO THUNDERSTORM CHANCES FOR THE END OF THE WEEK.

WWW.SRH.NOAA.GOV/TULSA CONTAINS ADDITIONAL INFORMATION.

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
554 PM CDT SUN JUN 16 2013

OKZ070-072-162345-
MUSKOGEE OK-SEQUOYAH OK-
554 PM CDT SUN JUN 16 2013

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY...

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN TULSA HAS ISSUED A
SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY EFFECTIVE UNTIL 645 PM CDT
FOR THE FOLLOWING COUNTIES...

IN EAST CENTRAL OKLAHOMA
     EASTERN MUSKOGEE AND WESTERN SEQUOYAH

AT 555 PM CDT...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WAS LOCATED OVER WARNER...
MOVING EAST AT 10 MPH. SOME LOCATIONS THAT WILL BE AFFECTED BY THIS
STORM INCLUDE...GORE...WARNER AND WEBBERS FALLS.

THIS STORM WILL BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING NICKEL SIZE HAIL AND WIND
GUSTS TO 50 MPH. RESIDENTS IN THESE AREAS SHOULD REMAIN ALERT IN CASE
THE SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY IS UPGRADED TO A WARNING.

LAT...LON 3560 9508 3543 9508 3543 9534 3545 9535
      3555 9535 3555 9537 3557 9538
TIME...MOT...LOC 2255Z 270DEG 10KT 3551 9529

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SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
703 PM CDT SUN JUN 16 2013

OKZ054-170045-
OSAGE OK-
703 PM CDT SUN JUN 16 2013

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY...

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN TULSA HAS ISSUED A
SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY EFFECTIVE UNTIL 745 PM CDT
FOR THE FOLLOWING COUNTY...

IN NORTHEAST OKLAHOMA
     WESTERN OSAGE

AT 703 PM CDT...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WAS LOCATED 13 MILES WEST OF
APPERSON...MOVING SOUTHEAST AT 20 MPH. SOME LOCATIONS THAT WILL BE
AFFECTED BY THIS STORM INCLUDE...FAIRFAX...BURBANK AND APPERSON.

THIS STORM WILL BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING NICKEL SIZE HAIL AND WIND
GUSTS TO 50 MPH. RESIDENTS IN THESE AREAS SHOULD REMAIN ALERT IN CASE
THE SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY IS UPGRADED TO A WARNING.

LAT...LON 3670 9704 3669 9695 3675 9689 3675 9683
      3680 9675 3655 9652 3651 9672 3656 9675
      3656 9678 3648 9687 3646 9697 3652 9701
      3656 9691 3658 9690 3659 9692 3658 9705
      3668 9707
TIME...MOT...LOC 0003Z 327DEG 19KT 3676 9698

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
719 PM CDT SUN JUN 16 2013

OKZ049-053-170100-
CHOCTAW OK-PUSHMATAHA OK-
719 PM CDT SUN JUN 16 2013

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY...

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN TULSA HAS ISSUED A
SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY EFFECTIVE UNTIL 800 PM CDT
FOR THE FOLLOWING COUNTIES...

IN SOUTHEAST OKLAHOMA
     NORTHEASTERN CHOCTAW AND SOUTHERN PUSHMATAHA

AT 720 PM CDT...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WAS LOCATED 2 MILES NORTHEAST
OF SPEER...MOVING EAST AT 15 MPH. SOME LOCATIONS THAT WILL BE
AFFECTED BY THIS STORM INCLUDE...SAWYER...FORT TOWSON...SWINK...
MESSER...KENT...SOBOL...SPEER...APPLE...CORINNE...DELA...RATTAN...
OLETA...HUGO LAKE STATE PARK AND RAYMOND GARY STATE PARK.

THIS STORM WILL BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING NICKEL SIZE HAIL AND WIND
GUSTS TO 50 MPH.

LAT...LON 3395 9521 3394 9523 3407 9566 3425 9560
      3419 9514 3394 9515 3393 9517
TIME...MOT...LOC 0020Z 285DEG 11KT 3414 9552