Severe Thunderstorm Warning 180, NWS Tulsa, OK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
617 PM CDT SUN JUN 16 2013

.AVIATION...
CONCERNING TAF SITES KTUL/KRVS/KBVO/KMLC/KXNA/KFYV/KFSM.
FOR THE 0Z TAFS... THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE AREA FOR
THE NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS UNTIL THE LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING. IT
CURRENTLY APPEARS THAT STORMS WILL NOT DIRECTLY AFFECT ANY TAF
SITES... SO WILL HAVE ONLY VCTS IN TAFS. OTHERWISE... VFR
CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL AT ALL SITES OVERNIGHT. BETTER CHANCES FOR
THUNDERSTORMS WILL OCCUR LATER IN THE FORECAST AS A THUNDERSTORM
COMPLEX MOVES ACROSS THE REGION EARLY MONDAY MORNING. TEMPO
GROUPS IN ALL TAFS FRAME THIS POTENTIAL ACTIVITY.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 247 PM CDT SUN JUN 16 2013/

DISCUSSION...

ISOLATED TO SCATTERED DIURNAL THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY IS BEGINNING
TO DEVELOP ACROSS PARTS OF EASTERN OKLAHOMA AND NORTHWEST
ARKANSAS...AND SHOULD CONTINUE THROUGH THE REST OF THE AFTERNOON
AND INTO EARLY EVENING...WITH COVERAGE DECREASING WITH THE LOSS OF
DAYTIME HEATING. ISOLATED SEVERE WIND GUSTS AND HAIL COULD OCCUR
WITH THE STRONGEST STORMS...BUT WITH WEAK WIND SHEAR
PRESENT...THERE SHOULD NOT BE A LOT OF ORGANIZED SEVERE WEATHER.

LATE TONIGHT AND EARLY TOMORROW MORNING...ONE OR MORE STORM
COMPLEXES SHOULD DEVELOP ACROSS KANSAS AND MOVE TO THE SOUTH AND
SOUTHEAST ACROSS PORTIONS OF EASTERN OKLAHOMA AND NORTHWEST
ARKANSAS. THE BIGGEST SEVERE THREAT WILL BE DAMAGING WINDS...WITH
MARGINALLY SEVERE HAIL...HEAVY RAIN AND LOCALIZED FLOODING ALSO
LIKELY.

THE SEVERE STORM THREAT WILL CONTINUE INTO MONDAY
AFTERNOON...ESPECIALLY ACROSS AREAS TO THE SOUTH OF ANY OUTFLOW
BOUNDARIES REMAINING FROM THE MORNING STORMS. PLENTY OF
INSTABILITY AND INCREASED WIND SHEAR DURING THE AFTERNOON WILL
KEEP A THREAT OF LARGE HAIL AND WINDS WITH ANY AFTERNOON/EVENING
STORMS.

COOLER TEMPERATURES AND LOW STORM CHANCES WILL REMAIN ACROSS THE
AREA THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF THIS WEEK. THE RIDGE WILL STRENGTHEN
ACROSS THE REGION TOWARD THE END OF THE WEEK AND INTO THE
WEEKEND...BRINGING BACK THE HOT AND DRY WEATHER.

&&

.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...NONE.
AR...NONE.
&&

SHORT TERM...99
LONG TERM....99
AVIATION...06

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
501 PM CDT SUN JUN 16 2013

ARZ001-002-010-011-019-020-029-OKZ049-053>076-171015-
ADAIR OK-BENTON AR-CARROLL AR-CHEROKEE OK-CHOCTAW OK-CRAIG OK-
CRAWFORD AR-CREEK OK-DELAWARE OK-FRANKLIN AR-HASKELL OK-LATIMER OK-
LE FLORE OK-MADISON AR-MAYES OK-MCINTOSH OK-MUSKOGEE OK-NOWATA OK-
OKFUSKEE OK-OKMULGEE OK-OSAGE OK-OTTAWA OK-PAWNEE OK-PITTSBURG OK-
PUSHMATAHA OK-ROGERS OK-SEBASTIAN AR-SEQUOYAH OK-TULSA OK-WAGONER OK-
WASHINGTON OK-WASHINGTON AR-
501 PM CDT SUN JUN 16 2013

THIS OUTLOOK IS FOR NORTHWEST AND WEST CENTRAL ARKANSAS AS WELL AS
MUCH OF EASTERN OKLAHOMA.

.DAY ONE...THIS EVENING AND TONIGHT.

SEVERE THUNDERSTORM.
	RISK...ELEVATED.
	AREA...EASTERN OKLAHOMA AND NORTHWEST ARKANSAS.
	ONSET...ONGOING. ADDITIONAL FOR NORTHEAST OKLAHOMA AFTER
                MIDNIGHT.

FLASH FLOOD.
	RISK...ELEVATED.
	AREA...EASTERN OKLAHOMA AND NORTHWEST ARKANSAS.
	ONSET...ONGOING.

HEAVY RAIN.
	RISK...LIMITED.
	AREA...EASTERN OKLAHOMA AND NORTHWEST ARKANSAS.
	ONSET...ONGOING.

DISCUSSION...
ISOLATED TO SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUE TO DEVELOP AND SPREAD
ACROSS PORTIONS OF EASTERN OKLAHOMA AND NORTHWEST ARKANSAS THIS
AFTERNOON. SOME OF THE THUNDERSTORMS HAVE BECOME STRONG TO SEVERE
WITH HAIL AND WINDS. VERY HEAVY DOWNPOURS WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE
WITHIN THE STRONGER STORMS...WHICH COULD CREATE FLASH FLOODING
CONDITIONS. THIS ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH THE
AFTERNOON HOURS BEFORE DISSIPATING THIS EVENING WITH THE LOSS OF
DAYTIME HEATING.

THE GREATER SEVERE POTENTIAL WILL BE ACROSS NORTHEAST OKLAHOMA
AFTER MIDNIGHT TONIGHT. ONE OR MORE THUNDERSTORM COMPLEXES ARE
EXPECTED TO ORGANIZE AND MOVE INTO THE AREA FROM THE NORTHWEST.
DAMAGING WINDS WILL BE THE PRIMARY HAZARD...ALONG WITH SOME
MARGINALLY SEVERE HAIL IN THE STRONGER CORES.

GIVEN THE AMOUNT OF MOISTURE AVAILABLE IN THE ATMOSPHERE FOR
STORMS TO WORK WITH...HEAVY RAINFALL RATES WILL BE THE RESULT. IF
STORMS END UP TRAINING OVER THE SAME AREAS...SEVERAL INCHES OF
RAINFALL COULD FALL IN A SHORT PERIOD OF TIME. THIS COULD LEAD TO
LOCALIZED FLOODING...ESPECIALLY IN LOW LYING AREAS.

SPOTTER AND EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT ACTION STATEMENT...
ACTIVATION OF THE REGIONAL SPOTTER NETWORK LIKELY.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY.
MONDAY...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL.
TUESDAY...THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL.
WEDNESDAY...THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL.
THURSDAY...NO HAZARDS.
FRIDAY...DANGEROUS HEAT POTENTIAL.
SATURDAY...DANGEROUS HEAT POTENTIAL.

EXTENDED DISCUSSION...
A LARGE COMPLEX OF THUNDERSTORMS WILL LIKELY BE ONGOING IN THE
MORNING. AN OUTFLOW REINFORCED EAST-WEST ORIENTED FRONTAL
BOUNDARY WILL LIKELY BE LAID OUT OVER OKLAHOMA AND ARKANSAS ON
MONDAY AFTERNOON. ALONG AND SOUTH OF THE BOUNDARY...THE ATMOSPHERE
WILL BE VERY UNSTABLE...AND COMBINE THIS WITH INCREASING
NORTHWESTERLY DEEP LAYER SHEAR...THE POTENTIAL FOR SEVERE STORMS
INCREASES. VERY LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS WILL BE THE PRIMARY
HAZARDS. IF A DISCRETE SUPERCELL CAN DEVELOP...THEN AN ISOLATED
TORNADO IS POSSIBLE AS WELL.

THE STALLED FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL CONTINUE TO BE THE FOCUS FOR
THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY THROUGH WEDNESDAY.

RIDGING WILL BUILD OVER THE REGION ALOFT...AND THIS WILL PUT AN
END TO THUNDERSTORM CHANCES FOR THE END OF THE WEEK.

WWW.SRH.NOAA.GOV/TULSA CONTAINS ADDITIONAL INFORMATION.

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
515 PM CDT SUN JUN 16 2013

OKZ060-061-067-162300-
ROGERS OK-TULSA OK-WAGONER OK-
515 PM CDT SUN JUN 16 2013

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY...

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN TULSA HAS ISSUED A
SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY EFFECTIVE UNTIL 600 PM CDT
FOR THE FOLLOWING COUNTIES...

IN NORTHEAST OKLAHOMA
     SOUTHWESTERN ROGERS...CENTRAL TULSA AND NORTHWESTERN WAGONER

AT 515 PM CDT...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WAS LOCATED OVER TULSA...MOVING
EAST AT 10 MPH. SOME LOCATIONS THAT WILL BE AFFECTED BY THIS STORM
INCLUDE...TULSA AND BROKEN ARROW.

THIS STORM WILL BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING NICKEL SIZE HAIL AND WIND
GUSTS TO 50 MPH. RESIDENTS IN THESE AREAS SHOULD REMAIN ALERT IN CASE
THE SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY IS UPGRADED TO A WARNING.

LAT...LON 3620 9565 3605 9568 3605 9603 3615 9603
TIME...MOT...LOC 2215Z 273DEG 10KT 3608 9597

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
525 PM CDT SUN JUN 16 2013

OKZ075-076-162300-
LATIMER OK-LE FLORE OK-
525 PM CDT SUN JUN 16 2013

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY...

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN TULSA HAS ISSUED A
SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY EFFECTIVE UNTIL 600 PM CDT
FOR THE FOLLOWING COUNTIES...

IN SOUTHEAST OKLAHOMA
     SOUTHERN LE FLORE AND EASTERN LATIMER

AT 526 PM CDT...STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WERE LOCATED ALONG A LINE
EXTENDING FROM 3 MILES SOUTH OF PANOLA TO 10 MILES EAST OF BIG
CEDAR...MOVING NORTH AT 10 MPH. SOME LOCATIONS THAT WILL BE AFFECTED
BY THESE STORMS INCLUDE...BENGAL...DAMON...PANOLA...RED OAK...BIG
CEDAR...MUSE...WHITESBORO...TALIHINA...HODGEN...SUMMERFIELD...
HEAVENER...FANSHAWE...TALIMENA STATE PARK...LAKE WISTER STATE PARK
AND HEAVENER RUNESTONE STATE PARK.

THESE STORMS WILL BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING NICKEL SIZE HAIL AND WIND
GUSTS TO 50 MPH.

LAT...LON 3480 9533 3505 9523 3488 9444 3452 9445
TIME...MOT...LOC 2226Z 184DEG 10KT 3489 9521 3463 9447

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
528 PM CDT SUN JUN 16 2013

OKZ060-066-067-070-162300-
MUSKOGEE OK-OKMULGEE OK-TULSA OK-WAGONER OK-
528 PM CDT SUN JUN 16 2013

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY...

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN TULSA HAS ISSUED A
SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY EFFECTIVE UNTIL 600 PM CDT
FOR THE FOLLOWING COUNTIES...

IN EAST CENTRAL OKLAHOMA
     NORTHWESTERN MUSKOGEE

IN NORTHEAST OKLAHOMA
     NORTHERN OKMULGEE...SOUTHEASTERN TULSA AND WESTERN WAGONER

AT 529 PM CDT...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WAS LOCATED 3 MILES NORTH OF
LEONARD...MOVING EAST AT 15 MPH. SOME LOCATIONS THAT WILL BE AFFECTED
BY THIS STORM INCLUDE...TULSA...LIBERTY...HECTORVILLE...LEONARD...
BIXBY...JENKS...GLENPOOL...CHOSKA...TULLAHASSEE...PORTER...
STONEBLUFF...REDBIRD...COWETA...ONETA...HASKELL AND JENKS RIVERSIDE
AIRPORT.

THIS STORM WILL BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING PENNY SIZE HAIL. THIS STORM
WILL BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING WIND GUSTS TO 50 MPH. RESIDENTS IN THESE
AREAS SHOULD REMAIN ALERT IN CASE THE SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY IS
UPGRADED TO A WARNING.

LAT...LON 3606 9551 3580 9542 3579 9601 3605 9600
TIME...MOT...LOC 2229Z 268DEG 11KT 3596 9580

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
554 PM CDT SUN JUN 16 2013

OKZ070-072-162345-
MUSKOGEE OK-SEQUOYAH OK-
554 PM CDT SUN JUN 16 2013

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY...

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN TULSA HAS ISSUED A
SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY EFFECTIVE UNTIL 645 PM CDT
FOR THE FOLLOWING COUNTIES...

IN EAST CENTRAL OKLAHOMA
     EASTERN MUSKOGEE AND WESTERN SEQUOYAH

AT 555 PM CDT...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WAS LOCATED OVER WARNER...
MOVING EAST AT 10 MPH. SOME LOCATIONS THAT WILL BE AFFECTED BY THIS
STORM INCLUDE...GORE...WARNER AND WEBBERS FALLS.

THIS STORM WILL BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING NICKEL SIZE HAIL AND WIND
GUSTS TO 50 MPH. RESIDENTS IN THESE AREAS SHOULD REMAIN ALERT IN CASE
THE SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY IS UPGRADED TO A WARNING.

LAT...LON 3560 9508 3543 9508 3543 9534 3545 9535
      3555 9535 3555 9537 3557 9538
TIME...MOT...LOC 2255Z 270DEG 10KT 3551 9529

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