Severe Thunderstorm Warning 170, NWS Tulsa, OK

737 
WWUS54 KTSA 151821
SVSTSA

SEVERE WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
121 PM CDT SAT JUN 15 2013

OKC113-151845-
/O.CON.KTSA.SV.W.0170.000000T0000Z-130615T1845Z/
OSAGE OK-
121 PM CDT SAT JUN 15 2013

...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 145 PM CDT FOR
NORTHWESTERN OSAGE COUNTY...

AT 117 PM CDT...THE CENTER OF A LARGE POTENTIALLY SEVERE 
THUNDERSTORM WAS LOCATED NEAR WEBB CITY...MOVING NORTHEAST AT 35 MPH.

STORM HAZARDS INCLUDE...
WIND GUSTS TO 60 MPH...

THIS STORM HAS HAD A HISTORY OF PRODUCING SEVERE WIND GUSTS. A 49 
MPH GUST WAS REPORTED AT THE BURBANK MESONET AT 1 PM. 

SOME LOCATIONS IN OR NEAR THE PATH OF THIS STORM INCLUDE...FORAKER
AND GRAINOLA.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

PEOPLE OUTDOORS SHOULD MOVE INSIDE A STURDY BUILDING. STAY AWAY FROM
WINDOWS AND DOORS UNTIL THE STORM HAS PASSED.

&&

LAT...LON 3701 9636 3699 9632 3660 9677 3667 9698
      3669 9697 3669 9695 3675 9689 3675 9683
      3677 9682 3679 9676 3694 9676 3701 9675
TIME...MOT...LOC 1821Z 214DEG 30KT 3685 9671

$$

LACY

391 
WWUS54 KTSA 151835
SVSTSA

SEVERE WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
135 PM CDT SAT JUN 15 2013

OKC113-151845-
/O.EXP.KTSA.SV.W.0170.000000T0000Z-130615T1845Z/
OSAGE OK-
135 PM CDT SAT JUN 15 2013

...THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING FOR NORTHWESTERN OSAGE COUNTY
EXPIRES AT 145 PM CDT...

THE THUNDERSTORM HAS WEAKENED BELOW SEVERE LIMITS...THEREFORE THE
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING WILL BE ALLOWED TO EXPIRE.

GUSTY WINDS AND HEAVY RAIN WILL STILL BE POSSIBLE WITH THIS STORM.

LAT...LON 3701 9636 3699 9632 3660 9677 3667 9698
      3669 9697 3669 9695 3675 9689 3675 9683
      3677 9682 3679 9676 3694 9676 3701 9675
TIME...MOT...LOC 1835Z 214DEG 30KT 3695 9663

$$

LACY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
1212 PM CDT SAT JUN 15 2013

.DISCUSSION...

THE 18Z TAF DISCUSSION IS INCLUDED BELOW.

&&

.AVIATION...
CONCERNING TAF SITES KTUL/KRVS/KBVO/KMLC/KXNA/KFYV/KFSM.
THE MAIN AVIATION CONCERN WILL BE TSTORMS THRU THE AFTERNOON AND
EARLY EVENING HOURS. COVERAGE IS THE BIG UNCERTAINTY...WITH NO
FOCUSING BOUNDARIES AND A WEAK OR NO CAP IN PLACE...STORMS COULD
POP UP ANYWHERE ACROSS EASTERN OKLAHOMA AND NORTHWEST ARKANSAS
THIS AFTERNOON. HAVE ELECTED TO GO WITH CONSERVATIVE VCTS
MENTION...AND THEN RAMP IT UP IF A STORM LOOKS TO AFFECT A
TERMINAL. STORMS SHOULD DIE OFF AFTER SUNSET FOR THE MOST PART.
WILL MAINTAIN VFR CONDITIONS OUTSIDE OF STORMS.

LACY

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1002 AM CDT SAT JUN 15 2013/

DISCUSSION...

MID LEVEL RIDGE HAS SHIFTED EAST TODAY AND IS CENTERED OVER THE
LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY. A MID LEVEL TROUGH IS LOCATED OVER
WESTERN OK/TX. THERE IS SOME DECENT SOUTHERLY FLOW FROM H85 TO H5
ON THE 12Z OUN SOUNDING...IN BETWEEN THE TWO FEATURES. A THETA-E
AXIS EXTENDS FROM CENTRAL INTO NORTHEAST OK...WHERE SBCAPES ARE ON
THE 2000-4000 J/KG RANGE. THE FLOW AND HIGH INSTABILITY WILL
COMBINE FOR AT LEAST SOME SEVERE POTENTIAL...DAMAGING WINDS AND
POSSIBLY SOME HAIL IN THE MORE SUSTAINED CELLS. ACTIVITY HAS
ALREADY BEGUN TO DEVELOP OVER SOUTH CENTRAL OK DUE TO A WEAK CAP
IN PLACE AND THIS ACTIVITY WILL GRADUALLY BECOME MORE NUMEROUS AS
WE GO INTO THE AFTERNOON.

LACY

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 542 AM CDT SAT JUN 15 2013/

AVIATION...
CONCERNING TAF SITES KTUL/KRVS/KBVO/KMLC/KXNA/KFYV/KFSM.
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO PREVAIL THROUGH THE PERIOD
AT ALL AREA TAF SITES. HAVE GONE WITH A PROB30 FOR THUNDER
THIS AFTERNOON INTO EARLY EVENING AT ALL TAF SITES EXCEPT
KFSM WITH SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP AS
A MID-LEVEL TROF APPROACHES AREA.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 341 AM CDT SAT JUN 15 2013/

DISCUSSION...
ELONGATED UPPER TROUGH...CURRENTLY OVER WEST TEXAS EARLY THIS
MORNING...WILL CONTINUE LIFTING NORTHEAST INTO THE AREA TODAY AS
UPPER RIDGE SHIFTS EAST. SCATTERED SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS...COMBINED
WITH INCREASING CLOUD COVER WILL LIKELY KEEP HIGH TEMPERATURES
CLOSER TO NORMAL AND SEVERAL DEGREES COOLER THAN YESTERDAY.
ALTHOUGH THUNDERSTORM COVERAGE IS NOT EXPECTED TO BE WIDESPREAD...
COULD SEE A FEW STRONG STORMS AS MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES CONTINUE TO
STEEPEN AHEAD OF UPPER TROUGH WITH DEEP MOISTURE ALREADY IN PLACE.

SCATTERED SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS WILL LINGER THROUGH THE WEEKEND
WITH THUNDERSTORM CHANCES INCREASING LATE SUNDAY NIGHT INTO
MONDAY AS WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY PUSHES INTO THE AREA. ANOTHER UPPER
DISTURBANCE FORECAST TO MOVE ACROSS AROUND THE WEDNESDAY TIME
FRAME AS WEST TO NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT CONTINUES. UPPER RIDGE WILL
BUILD BACK INTO SOUTHERN PLAINS BY LATE WEEK WITH HIGH TEMPERATURES
IN THE LOWER TO MID 90S RETURNING ACROSS EASTERN OKLAHOMA AND WEST
CENTRAL ARKANSAS.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TUL   73  90  71  87 /  20  30  60  60
FSM   72  91  72  88 /  20  30  30  60
MLC   72  90  72  88 /  20  30  30  60
BVO   71  90  70  86 /  20  30  70  50
FYV   67  87  67  84 /  20  30  50  60
BYV   69  88  68  85 /  20  30  50  60
MKO   72  88  72  87 /  20  30  50  60
MIO   70  89  68  83 /  20  30  70  50
F10   73  89  73  87 /  20  30  60  60
HHW   72  90  72  90 /  20  30  30  50

&&

.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...NONE.
AR...NONE.
&&

AVIATION...30

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
1254 PM CDT SAT JUN 15 2013

ARZ001-002-010-011-019-020-029-OKZ049-053>076-161000-
ADAIR OK-BENTON AR-CARROLL AR-CHEROKEE OK-CHOCTAW OK-CRAIG OK-
CRAWFORD AR-CREEK OK-DELAWARE OK-FRANKLIN AR-HASKELL OK-LATIMER OK-
LE FLORE OK-MADISON AR-MAYES OK-MCINTOSH OK-MUSKOGEE OK-NOWATA OK-
OKFUSKEE OK-OKMULGEE OK-OSAGE OK-OTTAWA OK-PAWNEE OK-PITTSBURG OK-
PUSHMATAHA OK-ROGERS OK-SEBASTIAN AR-SEQUOYAH OK-TULSA OK-WAGONER OK-
WASHINGTON OK-WASHINGTON AR-
1254 PM CDT SAT JUN 15 2013

THIS OUTLOOK IS FOR NORTHWEST AND WEST CENTRAL ARKANSAS AS WELL AS
MUCH OF EASTERN OKLAHOMA.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT.

SEVERE THUNDERSTORM.
	RISK...SIGNIFICANT.
	AREA...EASTERN OKLAHOMA AND NORTHWEST ARKANSAS.
	ONSET...ONGOING.

        AREA OF GREATEST RISK...NORTHWEST OF INTERSTATE 44.

HEAVY RAIN.
	RISK...LIMITED.
	AREA...NORTHWEST OF INTERSTATE 44.
	ONSET...ONGOING.

SIGNIFICANT WINDS.
	RISK...LIMITED.
	AREA...EASTERN OKLAHOMA AND NORTHWEST ARKANSAS.
	ONSET...ONGOING.

DISCUSSION...
SCATTERED STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ARE ONGOING EARLY THIS
AFTERNOON ACROSS PORTIONS OF EASTERN OKLAHOMA AND NORTHWEST
ARKANSAS IN RESPONSE TO AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE MOVING THROUGH
THE REGION. ADDITIONAL DEVELOPMENT WILL BE LIKELY THROUGH THE
AFTERNOON AND INTO THE EVENING DUE TO THE VERY UNSTABLE ATMOSPHERE
AND THE CONTINUED INFLUENCE OF THE DISTURBANCE. DAMAGING WIND
GUSTS WILL BE THE PRIMARY SEVERE THREAT WITH STORMS...ALTHOUGH
THERE IS SOME THREAT OF LARGE HAIL AS WELL. HEAVY RAIN AND
POTENTIAL FLASH FLOODING WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE...ESPECIALLY WHEN
TRAINING OF THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE SAME AREAS OCCURS. THESE
THUNDERSTORMS WILL SHIFT TO THE EAST AND SOUTHEAST WITH TIME...AS
THE UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE MOVES ACROSS THE AREA.

ADDITIONAL THUNDERSTORMS MAY DEVELOP ACROSS PARTS OF NORTHEAST
OKLAHOMA AND NORTHWEST ARKANSAS TOWARD SUNRISE SUNDAY MORNING.

SPOTTER AND EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT ACTION STATEMENT...
ACTIVATION OF THE REGIONAL SPOTTER NETWORK EXPECTED.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY.
SUNDAY...THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL...HEAVY RAIN POTENTIAL.
MONDAY...THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL.
TUESDAY...NO HAZARDS.
WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY...THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL.
FRIDAY...NO HAZARDS.

EXTENDED DISCUSSION...
SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS WILL AGAIN BE POSSIBLE ON SUNDAY WITH
THE UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE STILL IN THE VICINITY. LATE SUNDAY
NIGHT AND INTO MONDAY MORNING...A THUNDERSTORM COMPLEX IS EXPECTED
TO DEVELOP IN KANSAS AND MOVE SOUTHEASTWARD INTO EASTERN OKLAHOMA
AND NORTHWEST ARKANSAS. WIDESPREAD SEVERE WEATHER IS NOT
ANTICIPATED...BUT HEAVY RAIN AND LOCALIZED FLOODING WILL LIKELY
OCCUR.

MORE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY
AS THE EARLY WEEK FRONTAL BOUNDARY MOVES BACK TO THE NORTH ACROSS
THE AREA.

WWW.SRH.NOAA.GOV/TULSA CONTAINS ADDITIONAL INFORMATION.

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
1142 AM CDT SAT JUN 15 2013

OKZ073-151715-
PITTSBURG OK-
1142 AM CDT SAT JUN 15 2013

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY...

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN TULSA HAS ISSUED A
SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY EFFECTIVE UNTIL 1215 PM CDT
FOR THE FOLLOWING COUNTY...

IN SOUTHEAST OKLAHOMA
     WESTERN PITTSBURG

AT 1142 AM CDT...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WAS LOCATED 10 MILES SOUTH OF
ASHLAND...MOVING NORTH AT 30 MPH. SOME LOCATIONS THAT WILL BE
AFFECTED BY THIS STORM INCLUDE...ASHLAND...HAYWOOD AND ARPELAR.

THIS STORM WILL BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING WIND GUSTS 40 TO 45 MPH AND
SOME SMALL HAIL.

LAT...LON 3486 9609 3498 9609 3498 9590 3468 9593
      3468 9609 3468 9610 3486 9610
TIME...MOT...LOC 1642Z 177DEG 27KT 3466 9606

LACY

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
1237 PM CDT SAT JUN 15 2013

OKZ054-151800-
OSAGE OK-
1237 PM CDT SAT JUN 15 2013

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY...

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN TULSA HAS ISSUED A
SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY EFFECTIVE UNTIL 100 PM CDT
FOR THE FOLLOWING COUNTY...

IN NORTHEAST OKLAHOMA
     NORTHERN OSAGE

AT 1238 PM CDT...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WAS LOCATED OVER OSAGE
COUNTY...MOVING NORTHEAST AT 25 MPH..

THIS STORM WILL BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING NICKEL SIZE HAIL AND WIND
GUSTS TO 50 MPH.

LAT...LON 3685 9621 3694 9640 3701 9636 3701 9609
      3700 9609
TIME...MOT...LOC 1738Z 209DEG 22KT 3697 9625

LACY