Special Weather Statement, NWS Topeka, KS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TOPEKA KS
630 AM CDT Wed Oct 30 2013

...AVIATION UPDATE...

.SHORT TERM...(Today and Tonight)
Issued at 358 AM CDT WED OCT 30 2013

08Z water vapor imagery shows the closed low slowly moving east
towards the central Rockies. At the surface, an inverted trough has
bisected the forecast areas east to west with warm moist air across
east central KS and cooler air moving into north central KS. Fog
this morning has been a bigger problem along and north of the warm
front across central MO, but there has been some narrow band of
dense fog reported near the cold front in north central KS.

Today and Tonight continue to look wet as occasional pieces of
energy eject out of the base of the closed upper low through the day
today while the main upper level trough propagates east late tonight
bringing the strongest forcing so far across eastern KS. There
remains plenty of moisture along and east of the surface trough so
occasional showers and thunderstorms are anticipated. Given the
amount of moisture, rainfall is likely to be moderate or even heavy
at times and think an additional 1 to 2 inches of rainfall is likely
across east central and parts or northeast KS. Considered the need
for a flood watch. But with flash flood guidance for one hour around
1.7 inches or better and the lack of any response to yesterday's
rainfall by the rivers, confidence in widespread flooding is not
high enough for a watch at this point. If heavy rainfall occurs
today and sets the stage for later tonight as the stronger forcing
lifts out, then a watch may be needed. The potential for severe
weather appears to be conditional on whether the low clouds break up
and allow for stronger destabilization of the boundary layer. While
we can't rule out severe weather due to the strong deep layer shear,
cloud cover and the expected elevated nature of the storms could
minimize the severe weather potential. Any stronger storms may be
able to produce some hail or strong winds. Temps today could be
tricky because of the surface trough/front and where it ends up.
With the model consensus keeping the boundary somewhere in north
central KS, have lowered highs into the middle and upper 50s, but
expect a strong gradient in temps with highs around 70 or in the
lower 70s across eastern KS. However do not anticipate a strong
diurnal change due to overcast skies and occasional precip. The cold
front should begin to push southeast late tonight as the upper
trough moves across the state. Because of this trended lows across
north central KS down to around 40, and think east central KS could
still be in the upper 50s ahead of boundary.

Wolters

.LONG TERM...(Thursday through Tuesday)
Issued at 358 AM CDT WED OCT 30 2013

Models are in agreement that the arrival and passage of the
main...over northwest Oklahoma at 12z Thu...will be later than
previous runs with an east/northeast track as it ejects out into the
lower Mo valley through the day. This should result not only in a
slower end to precip chances across most of the CWA on Thursday than
earlier models runs...but also higher chances further north and west
through midday and afternoon. Will end precip chances by 1 pm
generally west of an Emporia to Hiawatha line and continue low pops
to the east through most of the afternoon. With veering winds and
drier air working eastward across the CWA below 5 KFT through the
day...will only carry isolated thunder potential in the morning.
Still expect dry conditions across the entire CWA by late afternoon
with skies becoming mostly sunny west to east through the day. This
should help temps recover into the upper 50s northeast to lower 60s
south by mid afternoon.

Will continue to maintain a dry forecast Thursday night on through the
weekend as the CWA remains in weak ridging in between the eastern
and western CONUS troughs over the eastern and western CONUS. Highs
in the upper 50s and lower 60s still look on track for the weekend.
With clouds and shower chances increasing early next week with the
approach of the next upper trough...highs in the middle and upper
50s should be the rule.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 12Z TAFs through 12Z Thursday Morning)
Issued at 630 AM CDT WED OCT 30 2013

IFR conditions are likely to prevail for much of the day while the
surface front remains to the west of the terminals and this very
moist airmass impacts the area. Elevated showers and thunderstorms
should increase in coverage through the morning as a weak
shortwave lifts northeast across the region. The precip may allow
a brief improvement to CIGS. Think that the elevated convection
will likely push off to the east around 19Z When CIGS and VSBY may
improve to MVFR through the afternoon. This is based mainly on MOS
data of CIGS. IFR conditions should come back in overnight with
widespread precip developing by midnight and lasting through 12Z
Thur as the main upper wave moves across the state.

&&

.TOP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

SHORT TERM...Wolters
LONG TERM...63
AVIATION...Wolters

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TOPEKA KS
408 AM CDT WED OCT 30 2013

KSZ008>012-020>024-026-034>040-054>056-058-059-310915-
REPUBLIC-WASHINGTON-MARSHALL-NEMAHA-BROWN-CLOUD-CLAY-RILEY-
POTTAWATOMIE-JACKSON-JEFFERSON-OTTAWA-DICKINSON-GEARY-MORRIS-
WABAUNSEE-SHAWNEE-DOUGLAS-LYON-OSAGE-FRANKLIN-COFFEY-ANDERSON-
408 AM CDT WED OCT 30 2013

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR EAST CENTRAL...NORTH
CENTRAL AND NORTHEAST KANSAS.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT.

THERE WILL BE A CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE ENTIRE AREA
TODAY AND TONIGHT. SOME OF THE STRONGER STORMS MAY BE CAPABLE OF
PRODUCING LARGE HAIL.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY.

THUNDERSTORM CHANCES WILL LINGER THURSDAY MORNING OVER NORTHEAST
AND EAST CENTRAL KANSAS.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION SHOULD NOT BE NEEDED THROUGH TONIGHT.

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TOPEKA KS
428 AM CDT WED OCT 30 2013

KSZ011-012-301000-
BROWN-NEMAHA-
428 AM CDT WED OCT 30 2013

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR NORTHERN NEMAHA AND NORTHWESTERN
BROWN COUNTIES...

THROUGH 500 AM CDT...A THUNDERSTORM WILL MOVE NORTHEAST AT 45 MPH
ACROSS PORTIONS OF NORTHERN NEMAHA AND NORTHWESTERN BROWN COUNTIES.
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED THIS STORM IS
CAPABLE OF PRODUCING PENNY SIZE HAIL...WINDS UP TO 40 MPH AND HEAVY
RAIN. SOME LOCATIONS THAT COULD BE AFFECTED INCLUDE ONEIDA...BERN...
SABETHA...MORRILL...HAMLIN AND RESERVE.

&&

LAT...LON 3993 9544 3978 9612 3988 9617 4001 9587
      4000 9548
TIME...MOT...LOC 0928Z 246DEG 41KT 3985 9604

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TOPEKA KS
726 AM CDT WED OCT 30 2013

KSZ021-035-301300-
CLAY-DICKINSON-
726 AM CDT WED OCT 30 2013

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR SOUTHERN CLAY AND NORTHWESTERN
DICKINSON COUNTIES...

THROUGH 800 AM CDT...A THUNDERSTORM WILL MOVE NORTHEAST AT 50 MPH
ACROSS PORTIONS OF SOUTHERN CLAY AND NORTHWESTERN DICKINSON COUNTIES.
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED THIS STORM IS
CAPABLE OF PRODUCING PENNY SIZE HAIL...WINDS UP TO 40 MPH AND HEAVY
RAIN. SOME LOCATIONS THAT COULD BE AFFECTED INCLUDE WAKEFIELD...CLAY
CENTER AND GREEN.

&&

LAT...LON 3945 9711 3945 9696 3915 9697 3898 9728
      3903 9737 3915 9737
TIME...MOT...LOC 1227Z 216DEG 45KT 3910 9727

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TOPEKA KS
807 AM CDT WED OCT 30 2013

KSZ022-023-036-301330-
GEARY-POTTAWATOMIE-RILEY-
807 AM CDT WED OCT 30 2013

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR SOUTHEASTERN RILEY...SOUTHWESTERN
POTTAWATOMIE AND CENTRAL GEARY COUNTIES...

THROUGH 830 AM CDT...A THUNDERSTORM WILL MOVE NORTHEAST AT 40 MPH
ACROSS PORTIONS OF SOUTHEASTERN RILEY...SOUTHWESTERN POTTAWATOMIE AND
CENTRAL GEARY COUNTIES. NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR
INDICATED THIS STORM IS CAPABLE OF PRODUCING NICKEL SIZE HAIL...WINDS
UP TO 40 MPH AND HEAVY RAIN. SOME LOCATIONS THAT COULD BE AFFECTED
INCLUDE KEATS...MANHATTAN...ST. GEORGE AND LOUISVILLE. MOTORISTS
ALONG INTERSTATE 70 BETWEEN MILE MARKERS 300 AND 311 COULD ALSO BE
AFFECTED.

&&

LAT...LON 3943 9648 3923 9629 3898 9674 3914 9687
TIME...MOT...LOC 1307Z 233DEG 36KT 3910 9675

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TOPEKA KS
810 AM CDT WED OCT 30 2013

KSZ009-010-301345-
MARSHALL-WASHINGTON-
810 AM CDT WED OCT 30 2013

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR NORTHWESTERN MARSHALL AND
SOUTHEASTERN WASHINGTON COUNTIES...

THROUGH 845 AM CDT...A THUNDERSTORM WILL MOVE NORTHEAST AT 45 MPH
ACROSS PORTIONS OF NORTHWESTERN MARSHALL AND SOUTHEASTERN WASHINGTON
COUNTIES. NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED THIS STORM
IS CAPABLE OF PRODUCING NICKEL SIZE HAIL...WINDS UP TO 40 MPH AND
HEAVY RAIN. SOME LOCATIONS THAT COULD BE AFFECTED INCLUDE HANOVER...
BREMEN...MARYSVILLE AND OKETO.

&&

LAT...LON 3994 9642 3962 9693 3972 9706 4001 9678
      4000 9651
TIME...MOT...LOC 1310Z 221DEG 38KT 3973 9692