Special Weather Statement, NWS Topeka, KS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TOPEKA KS
636 PM CDT TUE JUL 9 2013

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 316 PM CDT TUE JUL 9 2013

20Z WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS A SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVING EAST ALONG
THE CANADIAN BORDER...WITH A FLAT RIDGE ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PLAINS
AND SOUTHWEST. AT THE SURFACE A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE STRETCHED
FROM THE OK PANHANDLE AND SOUTHEAST CO NORTHEAST INTO THE UPPER
MIDWEST.

FOR THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH WEDNESDAY...IT IS DIFFICULT TO RULE OUT
PRECIP CHANCES. HEAT OF THE DAY AND WEAK CONVERGENCE ALONG THE
SURFACE TROUGH AXIS IS EXPECTED TO LEAD TO SCATTERED STORMS
DEVELOPMENT THROUGH SUNSET. WITH A LACK OF LARGE SCALE
FORCING...THINK THAT STORMS SHOULD EVENTUALLY BECOME MORE ELEVATED
AS THE EVENING PROGRESSES AND THE BOUNDARY LAYER COOLS. SO THE MAIN
WINDOW FOR MICROBURST WINDS SHOULD BE OVER THE NEXT 6 HOURS OR SO.
THINK THE ELEVATED SHOWERS AND STORMS ARE LIKELY TO FESTER THROUGH
THE NIGHT AND MOVE SOUTH WITH THE SLOW MOVING BOUNDARY. MODELS ARE
SLOW TO MOVE THE TROUGH/FRONT SOUTH OF KS TOMORROW AND WITH THE
UPPER RIDGE WEAKENING...FLOW BECOMES A LITTLE MORE NORTHWESTERLY.
SOME MODELS INDICATE A CHANCE OF STORMS REDEVELOPING WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOON IN CENTRAL KS. BECAUSE OF THIS...HAVE HELD ONTO SOME SMALL
POPS THROUGH THE DAY WEDNESDAY. LOWS TONIGHT SHOULD ONCE AGAIN BE
MILD WITH NO REAL LOW LEVEL COLD AIR ADVECTION BEHIND THE BOUNDARY.
HIGHS WEDNESDAY SHOULD BE COOLER WITH A NORTHEAST SURFACE WIND AND
850 TEMPS AROUND 22C...AND THE FORECAST IS FOR UPPER 80S TO LOWER
90S.

WOLTERS

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 316 PM CDT TUE JUL 9 2013

WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY...

MAIN ISSUE FOR THE LATTER WORK WEEK PERIODS IS THE CHANCE FOR
ELEVATED CONVECTION. MODELS DIFFER IN THE SPECIFICS BUT THERE ARE
PERIODS OF WEAK TO MODERATE MID/UPPER LEVEL WARM AIR
ADVECTION...WITH THE MORE CONSISTENT SIGNALS CURRENTLY IN THE LATE
WEDNESDAY NIGHT TO THURSDAY NIGHT PERIODS. IN COMPARISON TO RECENT
DAYS OF SIMILAR ACTIVITY...BOTH MOISTURE AND EFFECTIVE INSTABILITY
ARE NOT AS IMPRESSIVE BUT AT LEAST ONE ROUND OF LIGHT PRECIPITATION
IS A REASONABLE BET. KEPT MENTION LIMITED TO MAINLY WESTERN AND
SOUTHERN AREAS FOR THE AFOREMENTIONED PERIODS AT THIS POINT. AS FOR
TEMPERATURES...BACKED WINDS SHOULD KEEP MIXING DEPTHS MORE LIMITED
FOR A SLIGHTLY COOLER THURSDAY...WITH LOW LEVEL WINDS VEERING FOR A
FEW DEGREES OF WARM AIR ADVECTION LEADING TO A WARMER FRIDAY.

FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY...

BY SATURDAY THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE SETTLES OVER THE AREA AS A WEAK
UPPER LEVEL LOW MOVES WESTWARD ALONG THE GULF COAST. THE UPPER LOW
CONTINUES TO MOVE OVER THE SOUTHWEST U.S. ALLOWING THE RIDGE TO
PERSIST ACROSS THE CENTER PART OF THE COUNTRY. THIS MEANS WARM AND
DRY CONDITIONS ACROSS THE AREA FOR THE EXTENDED PERIOD. A FRONT WILL
DROP SOUTH THROUGH THE NORTHERN PLAINS SUNDAY AND MONDAY.
UNFORTUNATELY THIS FRONT DOES NOT APPEAR TO MAKE IT INTO OUR AREA
THEREFORE HAVE KEPT THE FORECAST DRY. HIGH TEMPERATURES NEXT WEEKEND
LOOK TO BE IN THE MID TO UPPER 90S ESPECIALLY ON SATURDAY. EARLY
NEXT WEEK THE HIGH TEMPERATURES COOL SLIGHTLY INTO THE LOW TO MID
90S WHILE LOW TEMPERATURES REMAIN CONSISTENT IN THE LOW TO MID
70S.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z WEDNESDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 625 PM CDT TUE JUL 9 2013

A COMPLEX OF THUNDERSTORMS CURRENTLY OVER WESTERN KANSAS WILL
MOVE EASTWARD AND GROW UPSCALE INTO EASTERN KANSAS THROUGH THE EVENING.
THE UNCERTAINTY IS HOW LONG THE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS LAST ACROSS
THE TAF SITES LATER TONIGHT. WINDS WILL BE LIGHT AND VARIABLE IN
THE VICINITY OF THE BOUNDARY WHICH IS OVER THE AREA RIGHT NOW.
BEHIND THE BOUNDARY AND POSSIBLE THUNDERSTORMS WINDS WILL STAY
LIGHT OUT OF THE NORTHEAST THROUGH THE REST OF THE TAF PERIOD.

&&

.TOP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR KSZ008>012-020>024-
026-034>040-054>056-058-059.

&&

SHORT TERM...WOLTERS
LONG TERM...POAGE/SANDERS
AVIATION...SANDERS

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TOPEKA KS
817 PM CDT TUE JUL 9 2013

KSZ008>012-020>024-026-034>040-054>056-058-059-110130-
REPUBLIC-WASHINGTON-MARSHALL-NEMAHA-BROWN-CLOUD-CLAY-RILEY-
POTTAWATOMIE-JACKSON-JEFFERSON-OTTAWA-DICKINSON-GEARY-MORRIS-
WABAUNSEE-SHAWNEE-DOUGLAS-LYON-OSAGE-FRANKLIN-COFFEY-ANDERSON-
817 PM CDT TUE JUL 9 2013

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR EAST CENTRAL...NORTH
CENTRAL AND NORTHEAST KANSAS.

.DAY ONE...TONIGHT.

THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE THIS EVENING THROUGH THE EARLY MORNING
HOURS. THEY COULD BE CAPABLE OF DAMAGING WINDS GUSTS AND HAIL UP
TO ONE INCH IN DIAMETER...AS WELL AS LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY.

THERE IS A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS OVER PARTS OF THE AREA
WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION WILL NOT BE NEEDED THROUGH TONIGHT.

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TOPEKA KS
956 PM CDT TUE JUL 09 2013

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0946 PM     TSTM WND GST     ABILENE                 38.92N 97.21W
07/09/2013  M56.00 MPH       DICKINSON          KS   AWOS

&&

KSANDERS

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