Special Weather Statement, NWS Topeka, KS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TOPEKA KS
109 PM CDT SAT MAR 30 2013

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1254 PM CDT SAT MAR 30 2013

NO MAJOR CHANGES FOR THIS AFTERNOON. ISOLATED SHOWERS AND PERHAPS
SOME THUNDERSTORMS WERE BEGINNING TO DEVELOP BETWEEN THE KS
TURNPIKE AND I-35. THESE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL MOVE
SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST COUNTIES OF THE CWA. THE COLD FRONT
WAS LOCATED FROM MINNEAPOLIS...TO CLAY CENTER...TO MARYSVILLE
LINE. ADDITIONAL SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS MAY FOR ALONG AND AHEAD
OF THE COLD FRONT ACROSS NORTHEAST AND EAST CENTRAL KS DURING THE
AFTERNOON HOURS. SBCAPE HAS BEEN INCREASING TO 500-1000 J/KG AT 18Z...AND
MAY REACH TO AROUND 1500 J/KG LATER THIS AFTERNOON ALONG AND
SOUTHEAST OF THE KS TURNPIKE. THEREFORE...SOME OF THE
THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON MAY BE STRONG TO SEVERE WITH THE
PRIMARY HAZARD BEING QUARTER SIZE HAIL AND STRONG OUTFLOW WINDS.

GARGAN

UPDATE ISSUED AT 955 AM CDT SAT MAR 30 2013

UPDATED FORECAST TO REMOVE POPS THIS MORNING ACROSS MUCH OF THE
AREA. SCATTERED SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE ACROSS BROWN...NORTHERN
JACKSON AND NORTHERN JEFFERSON THROUGH NOON.

SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL REDEVELOP AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT
ACROSS NORTHEAST AND EAST CENTRAL KS THIS AFTERNOON. IF WE GET
INSOLATION LATE THIS MORNING AND DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS...THE
ATMOSPHERE MAY DESTABILIZE ENOUGH DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS FOR SOME
OF THE THUNDERSTORMS TO BECOME STRONG TO POSSIBLY SEVER...WITH THE
PRIMARY HAZARD BEING QUARTER SIZE HAIL AND STRONG WIND GUSTS.

GARGAN

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY)

WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWING ONE SHORTWAVE TROUGH OVER NE MOVING
SOUTHEAST WITH CONVECTION OUT AHEAD OF IT WITHIN WAA REGIME ACROSS
SOUTHERN NE INTO CENTRAL KS. THIS AREA OF CONVECTION WILL CONTINUE
TO MOVE EAST AND SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE CWA THROUGH SUNRISE BEFORE
DIMINISHING. A COLD FRONT OVER CENTRAL NE WILL MOVE SOUTHEAST ACROSS
THE CWA THROUGH THE MIDDAY/AFTERNOON HOURS. IF SUFFICIENT
HEATING/DESTABILIZATION IN THE WAKE OF THIS MORNINGS ACTIVITY
OCCURS...MUCAPES OF 1500-2000 J/KG ARE POSSIBLE ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST
CWA...PRIMARILY ALONG AND SOUTHEAST OF THE I 35 CORRIDOR AT THE TIME
OF THE FROPA. IF ANY ISOLATED TO SCATTERED CONVECTION IS ABLE TO
REDEVELOP ALONG/AHEAD OF THE FRONT WITHIN THIS ENVIRONMENT...THEY
MAY BECOME CAPABLE OF PRODUCING SOME HAIL TO QUARTER SIZE AND STRONG
GUSTY WINDS. THIS ACTIVITY WOULD LIKELY EXIT THE FAR SOUTHEAST CWA
BY EARLY EVENING...ALTHOUGH MORE POST FRONTAL SHOWERS COULD STILL
REDEVELOP FURTHER TOWARDS THE NORTHWEST IN ADVANCE OF THE SHORTWAVE
TROUGH CURRENTLY MOVING INTO WY. ANY SHOWERS ASSOCIATED WITH THIS
SHOULD DISSIPATE BY MIDNIGHT...LEAVING THE REMAINDER OF NIGHT DRY
AND COOLER.

SUNDAY STILL LOOKING DRY AND MILD WITH HIGHS GENERALLY 65 TO 70 IN
ADVANCE OF THE NEXT MUCH STRONGER COLD FRONT TO THE NORTH. THIS
FRONT WILL PASS THROUGH THE CWA NORTH TO SOUTH THROUGH THE EVENING
WITH A CHANCE FOR RAIN...THEN A CHANCE FOR RAIN OR SNOW OVERNIGHT
INTO MONDAY AS THE COLDER AIR PLUNGES SOUTHWARD. ANY SNOWFALL APPEAR
SHOULD PRIMARILY BE UNDER HALF AN INCH AT THIS TIME. THE WINTRY MIX
POTENTIAL WILL SHIFT TO THE SOUTHERN CWA THROUGH AFTERNOON THEN END
BY EVENING...BUT AGAIN AMOUNTS SHOULD BE VERY LIGHT. 63

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 955 AM CDT SAT MAR 30 2013*

ISSUED AT 955 AM CDT SAT MAR 30 2013
MODELS STILL KEEPING THE NEXT TROUGH IN THE ROCKIES TO THE SOUTH OF
THE AREA THROUGH MID WEEK WITH DRY CONDITIONS AND A GRADUAL
MODERATION IN TEMPS AS THE AREA GRADUALLY TRANSITIONS FROM NORTHWEST
FLOW ALOFT TO A MORE ZONAL FLOW. HIGHS SHOULD RISE FROM NEAR 40 ON
MONDAY TO THE 50S BY WEDNESDAY...THEN THE 60S AGAIN BY FRIDAY. LOWS
IN THE 20S EARLY IN THE WEEK SHOULD RISE TO NEAR 40 BY FRIDAY. 63

&&

.AVIATION...

CHALLENGING AVIATION FORECAST THRU 18Z SUNDAY AS BAND OF MVFR
CIGS ARE GRADUALLY TRYING TO MIX OUT TO VFR. IN ADDITION LATEST
SHORT TERM MODELS ARE CONSISTENT WITH RADAR DEPICTING SCATTERED TSRA TO
DEVELOP AFT 18Z AT KTOP/KFOE AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT. DUE TO THE SCT
NATURE OF THE CONVECTION LEFT VCTS THRU 22Z WHEN THE FRONT IS
TIMED TO PASS THROUGH. IF A THUNDERSTORM IMPACTS THE
TERMINAL...CIGS/VIS WILL LOWER TO MVFR OR IFR AND WILL AMEND AS
NEEDED. WINDS DURING THE AFTERNOON MAY VARY IN DIRECTION AOB 10 KTS WITH
RESIDUAL OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES IN VCTY. INDICATION OF ANOTHER BAND OF
SHOWERS TO TRACK SOUTHEAST ACROSS AREA AFT 04Z TONIGHT. MENTIONED
VCSH AT SITES HOWEVER CONFIDENCE IN TIMING AND POSSIBILITY OF
THUNDER WILL BE DETERMINED IN LATER ISSUANCES.

BOWEN

&&

.TOP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

UPDATE...GARGAN
SHORT TERM...63
LONG TERM...63
AVIATION...BOWEN

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TOPEKA KS
438 AM CDT SAT MAR 30 2013

KSZ008>012-020>024-026-034>040-054>056-058-059-310945-
REPUBLIC-WASHINGTON-MARSHALL-NEMAHA-BROWN-CLOUD-CLAY-RILEY-
POTTAWATOMIE-JACKSON-JEFFERSON-OTTAWA-DICKINSON-GEARY-MORRIS-
WABAUNSEE-SHAWNEE-DOUGLAS-LYON-OSAGE-FRANKLIN-COFFEY-ANDERSON-
438 AM CDT SAT MAR 30 2013

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR EAST CENTRAL...NORTH
CENTRAL AND NORTHEAST KANSAS.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT.

SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS WILL END ACROSS NORTHEAST AND EAST CENTRAL
KANSAS BY MID MORNING...BUT MORE MAY DEVELOP ALONG AND AHEAD OF A
FRONT IN THE AFTERNOON. ALTHOUGH SEVERE WEATHER IS NOT EXPECTED
THIS MORNING...SOME THUNDERSTORMS THAT ARE ABLE TO DEVELOP IN THE
AFTERNOON SOUTH AND EAST OF THE TURNPIKE MAY PRODUCE QUARTER SIZE
HAIL AND STRONG GUSTY WINDS.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY.

LIGHT RAIN MAY MIX WITH OR CHANGE TO SNOW ACROSS THE AREA
LATE SUNDAY NIGHT INTO THE DAY MONDAY. HOWEVER...ANY SNOWFALL
ACCUMULATIONS AT THIS POINT APPEAR TO BE LESS THAN HALF AN INCH.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS UNLIKELY TODAY AND TONIGHT.

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TOPEKA KS
134 PM CDT SAT MAR 30 2013

KSZ056-058-059-301900-
ANDERSON-COFFEY-FRANKLIN-
134 PM CDT SAT MAR 30 2013

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR NORTHERN ANDERSON...NORTHEASTERN
COFFEY AND SOUTHERN FRANKLIN COUNTIES...

THROUGH 200 PM CDT...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL MOVE EAST-SOUTHEAST
AT 20 MPH ACROSS PORTIONS OF NORTHERN ANDERSON...NORTHEASTERN COFFEY
AND SOUTHERN FRANKLIN COUNTIES. NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER
RADAR INDICATED THIS STORM IS CAPABLE OF PRODUCING PENNY TO NICKEL
SIZE HAIL AND STRONG WINDS OF 40 TO 50 MPH. SOME LOCATIONS THAT
COULD BE AFFECTED INCLUDE
WAVERLY...GARNETT...RICHMOND...HARRIS...GREELEY AND GARNETT.

&&

LAT...LON 3820 9516 3833 9569 3844 9566 3843 9551
      3847 9551 3846 9510
TIME...MOT...LOC 1833Z 279DEG 17KT 3840 9563

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TOPEKA KS
217 PM CDT SAT MAR 30 2013

KSZ059-301945-
ANDERSON-
217 PM CDT SAT MAR 30 2013

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR CENTRAL ANDERSON COUNTY...

THROUGH 245 PM CDT...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL MOVE EAST-SOUTHEAST
AT 20 MPH ACROSS PORTIONS OF CENTRAL ANDERSON COUNTY. NATIONAL
WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED THIS STORM IS CAPABLE OF
PRODUCING PENNY SIZE HAIL AND STRONG WINDS OF 40 TO 50 MPH. SOME
LOCATIONS THAT COULD BE AFFECTED INCLUDE GARNETT AND GARNETT AIRPORT.

A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH IS ALSO IN EFFECT.

&&

LAT...LON 3827 9514 3812 9523 3825 9549 3833 9543
TIME...MOT...LOC 1917Z 292DEG 18KT 3826 9541

$$ GARGAN

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TOPEKA KS
220 PM CDT SAT MAR 30 2013

KSZ056-059-301945-
ANDERSON-FRANKLIN-
220 PM CDT SAT MAR 30 2013

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR NORTH CENTRAL ANDERSON AND
SOUTHERN FRANKLIN COUNTIES...

THROUGH 245 PM CDT...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL MOVE SOUTHEAST AT 35
MPH ACROSS PORTIONS OF NORTH CENTRAL ANDERSON AND SOUTHERN FRANKLIN
COUNTIES. NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED THIS STORM
IS CAPABLE OF PRODUCING PENNY SIZE HAIL AND STRONG WINDS OF 40 TO 50
MPH. SOME LOCATIONS THAT COULD BE AFFECTED INCLUDE PRINCETON AND
RICHMOND. MOTORISTS ALONG INTERSTATE 35 BETWEEN MILE MARKERS 169 AND
176 COULD ALSO BE AFFECTED.

A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH IS ALSO IN EFFECT.

&&

LAT...LON 3849 9512 3831 9523 3845 9551 3855 9547
TIME...MOT...LOC 1920Z 297DEG 28KT 3847 9544

$$ GARGAN