Severe Thunderstorm Warning 79, NWS Topeka, KS

422 
WWUS53 KTOP 310735
SVSTOP

SEVERE WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TOPEKA KS
235 AM CDT FRI MAY 31 2013

KSC061-127-310745-
/O.CAN.KTOP.SV.W.0079.000000T0000Z-130531T0800Z/
MORRIS-GEARY-
235 AM CDT FRI MAY 31 2013

...THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING FOR SOUTHEASTERN GEARY AND
NORTHEASTERN MORRIS COUNTIES IS CANCELLED...

THE STORM WHICH PROMPTED THE WARNING HAS MOVED OUT OF THE WARNED 
AREA.

LAT...LON 3887 9594 3885 9595 3882 9636 3883 9646
      3904 9650 3904 9639 3907 9639 3915 9595
      3915 9593 3887 9587
TIME...MOT...LOC 0735Z 259DEG 33KT 3893 9636

$$

KSC177-197-310800-
/O.CON.KTOP.SV.W.0079.000000T0000Z-130531T0800Z/
SHAWNEE-WABAUNSEE-
235 AM CDT FRI MAY 31 2013

...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR CENTRAL
WABAUNSEE AND SOUTHWESTERN SHAWNEE COUNTIES UNTIL 300 AM CDT...

AT 231 AM CDT...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WAS LOCATED NEAR VOLLAND...AND
MOVING EAST AT 40 MPH.

HAZARD...HALF DOLLAR SIZE HAIL.

SOURCE...RADAR INDICATED.

IMPACT...DAMAGE TO VEHICLES AND CROPS IS EXPECTED.

LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...
ALMA...ESKRIDGE...ROSSVILLE...MCFARLAND...PAXICO...KEENE...DOVER...
MAPLE HILL AND WILLARD.

THIS INCLUDES INTERSTATE 70 BETWEEN MILE MARKERS 323 AND 347.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

FOR YOUR PROTECTION MOVE TO AN INTERIOR ROOM ON THE LOWEST FLOOR OF A
BUILDING.

&&

LAT...LON 3887 9594 3885 9595 3882 9636 3883 9646
      3904 9650 3904 9639 3907 9639 3915 9595
      3915 9593 3887 9587
TIME...MOT...LOC 0735Z 259DEG 33KT 3893 9636

HAIL...1.25IN
WIND...<50MPH

$$

HENNECKE

744 
WWUS53 KTOP 310748
SVSTOP

SEVERE WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TOPEKA KS
248 AM CDT FRI MAY 31 2013

KSC177-197-310800-
/O.CON.KTOP.SV.W.0079.000000T0000Z-130531T0800Z/
SHAWNEE-WABAUNSEE-
248 AM CDT FRI MAY 31 2013

...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR CENTRAL
WABAUNSEE AND SOUTHWESTERN SHAWNEE COUNTIES UNTIL 300 AM CDT...

AT 245 AM CDT...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WAS LOCATED 6 MILES SOUTHEAST
OF ALMA...AND MOVING EAST AT 45 MPH.

HAZARD...QUARTER SIZE HAIL.

SOURCE...RADAR INDICATED.

IMPACT...DAMAGE TO VEHICLES AND CROPS IS EXPECTED.

LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...
ESKRIDGE...ROSSVILLE...PAXICO...KEENE...MAPLE HILL...DOVER AND
WILLARD.

THIS INCLUDES INTERSTATE 70 BETWEEN MILE MARKERS 325 AND 347.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

FOR YOUR PROTECTION MOVE TO AN INTERIOR ROOM ON THE LOWEST FLOOR OF A
BUILDING.

&&

LAT...LON 3887 9594 3885 9595 3882 9629 3908 9634
      3915 9593 3887 9587
TIME...MOT...LOC 0748Z 259DEG 39KT 3896 9616

HAIL...1.00IN
WIND...<50MPH

$$

HENNECKE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TOPEKA KS
1207 AM CDT FRI MAY 31 2013

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 343 PM CDT THU MAY 30 2013

WATER VAPOR LOOP SHOWING CONVECTIVE SYSTEM OVER WESTERN MO MOVING
SLOWLY EWD AHEAD OF ONE MID-LEVEL TROUGH.  HOWEVER...THERE IS A VERY
SHORT WAVELENGTH BETWEEN THAT TROUGH AND THE FOLLOWING IMPULSE THAT
APPEARS TO BE OVER WRN KS AT MID AFTERNOON.  SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS HAVE FIRED OVER WRN KS AHEAD OF THIS FEATURE AND THEY
ARE MOVING EWD.  SHORT RANGE MODEL GUIDANCE NOT RESOLVING THE
DETAILS OF THIS VERY WELL...HOWEVER THE 17Z HRRR DOES NOW HAVE A
LINE OF CONVECTION MOVING INTO CENTRAL KS BY 21Z.  IT FORECASTS THIS
TO BREAK UP WITH THE REMNANTS MOVING ACROSS NORTHEAST KS DURING THE
EVENING...AND THEN ANOTHER SMALL CONVECTIVE SYSTEM MOVES SOUTHEAST
OUT OF NEBRASKA INTO NORTHEAST KS LATER TONIGHT.  DO NOT HAVE HIGH
CONFIDENCE IN THIS SCENARIO...ALTHOUGH SOME TYPE OF SMALL MCS WOULD
APPEAR TO BE LIKELY IN CENTRAL/NORTHEAST KS LATER TONIGHT.  THIS
POSSIBLE SYSTEM WOULD APPEAR TO MOVE THROUGH FAST ENOUGH AS TO NOT
CAUSE SIG PROBLEMS WITH HEAVY RAIN/FLOODING.  EARLIER CONCERNS ABOUT
WARM AIR ADVECTION CAUSING LIFT AND THUNDERSTORM AREA WITH
POTENTIALLY HEAVY RAINFALL OVER EC KS TONIGHT ARE LESSENING AS
CONVECTIVE BOUNDARY SAGS WAY SOUTH INTO NORTHEAST OKLAHOMA.
THUS...HAVE CANCELLED FLASH FLOOD WATCH THAT WAS IN EFFECT FOR THIS
AFTERNOON...AND AM NOT PLANNING ON GOING OUT WITH A NEW ONE AT THIS
TIME.  CONFIDENCE IN THE DETAILS OF PRECIPITATION EVOLUTION TONIGHT
IS NOT HIGH.

ON FRIDAY...FRONTAL BOUNDARY SHOULD MAKE IT FAR ENOUGH SOUTH BY
AFTERNOON THAT THE MAIN CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY WOULD BE IN
EC KS...MAINLY SOUTHEAST OF THE KANSAS TURNPIKE.  LOWS TONIGHT
EXPECTED TO BE AROUND 60 OVER NC KS AND IN THE MID 60S EC.  HIGHS ON
FRIDAY ARE FORECAST TO MAX OUT AROUND 80.

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 343 PM CDT THU MAY 30 2013

DETAILS ONLY GET MURKIER FOR FRIDAY EVENING...BUT AT LEAST SOME
CHANCE SHOULD EXIST AHEAD OF THE SYNOPTIC BOUNDARY FOR SOUTHERN AND
EASTERN LOCATIONS. SUFFICIENT SHEAR AND INSTABILITY WOULD SUPPORT A
SEVERE CONCERN THROUGH THIS TIME AS WELL..BUT THE SOUTHEASTWARD
SHIFTING UPPER LOW SHOULD PUSH THE EFFECTIVE FRONT SOUTH OF THE AREA
BY DAWN. COLD AIR ADVECTION SETS IN FOR SATURDAY ON NORTHWEST
BREEZES WITH SOME STRATUS/STRATOCU DEVELOPING BY MID AFTERNOON.
WEAKENING WINDS AND CLEARING SKIES SPELL A COOL NIGHT SATURDAY
NIGHT. SURFACE RIDGE SETS UP FOR SUNDAY WITH LITTLE IF ANY
MODERATION TO HIGHS.

GULF MOISTURE DOES NOT GET COMPLETELY SCOURED OUT...AND BY LATE
MONDAY SOUTH WINDS AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING NORTHERN ROCKIES CYCLONE
WILL BRING THUNDERSTORM CHANCES BACK. BEST CHANCES LOOK TO BE
TUESDAY INTO TUESDAY NIGHT WITH GOOD MODEL AGREEMENT ON A MID LEVEL
WAVE PASSING. TEMPS SHOULD GENERALLY BE NEAR EARLY JUNE NORMALS SAVE
ANY DAYTIME MCS ACTIVITY.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z FRIDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1132 PM CDT THU MAY 30 2013

THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUE TO DEVELOP ALONG THE I 70 CORRIDOR AND SHOULD
PERSIST THROUGH 09Z IN THE TERMINALS BEFORE DECREASING/ENDING FROM WEST
TO EAST IN THE 08-11Z TIMEFRAME. EXPECT TEMPS MVFR CIGS AND VSBYS
IN THE STRONGER ELEVATED CONVECTIVE CELLS BEFORE DIMINISHING AND
ENDING BEFORE SUNRISE. BEYOND 11Z VFR CONDITIONS WILL BE THE
RULE...ALTHOUGH A FEW SHOWERS MAY LINGER INITIALLY. SFC WINDS WILL
GRADUALLY VEER THROUGH THE DAY...BUT REMAIN FAIRLY LIGHT SOUTHWEST
TO WEST.

&&

.TOP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

SHORT TERM...60
LONG TERM...65
AVIATION...63

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TOPEKA KS
956 PM CDT THU MAY 30 2013

KSZ008>012-020>024-026-034>040-054>056-058-059-010300-
REPUBLIC-WASHINGTON-MARSHALL-NEMAHA-BROWN-CLOUD-CLAY-RILEY-
POTTAWATOMIE-JACKSON-JEFFERSON-OTTAWA-DICKINSON-GEARY-MORRIS-
WABAUNSEE-SHAWNEE-DOUGLAS-LYON-OSAGE-FRANKLIN-COFFEY-ANDERSON-
956 PM CDT THU MAY 30 2013

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR EAST CENTRAL...NORTH
CENTRAL AND NORTHEAST KANSAS.

.DAY ONE...TONIGHT.

SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS MAY DEVELOP ACROSS THE AREA
OVERNIGHT...ESPECIALLY ALONG AND SOUTH OF I 70. SOME OF THE
STRONGER STORMS MAY HAVE THE POTENTIAL TO PRODUCE HAIL TO THE
SIZE OF QUARTERS AND LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY.

THUNDERSTORM CHANCES CONTINUE INTO FRIDAY AFTERNOON IN THE
EAST...WITH THE GREATER RISK ALONG AND SOUTHEAST OF THE KANSAS
TURNPIKE. THESE STORMS ALSO HAVE THE POTENTIAL FOR HEAVY RAIN.

THUNDERSTORM CHANCES RETURN TO NORTH CENTRAL KANSAS MONDAY...AND
TO
THE REST OF THE AREA MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION WILL NOT BE NEEDED THROUGH TONIGHT.

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TOPEKA KS
851 PM CDT THU MAY 30 2013

KSZ020-034-310215-
CLOUD-OTTAWA-
851 PM CDT THU MAY 30 2013

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR NORTHWESTERN OTTAWA AND
SOUTHWESTERN CLOUD COUNTIES...

THROUGH 915 PM CDT...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL MOVE EAST AT 40 MPH
ACROSS PORTIONS OF NORTHWESTERN OTTAWA AND SOUTHWESTERN CLOUD
COUNTIES. NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED THIS STORM
IS CAPABLE OF PRODUCING PENNY SIZE HAIL...STRONG WINDS OF 40 TO 50
MPH AND HEAVY RAIN. SOME LOCATIONS THAT COULD BE AFFECTED INCLUDE
GLASCO AND DELPHOS.

&&

LAT...LON 3946 9794 3949 9757 3923 9756 3922 9794
TIME...MOT...LOC 0151Z 268DEG 40KT 3930 9796

$$ GARGAN

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TOPEKA KS
126 AM CDT FRI MAY 31 2013

KSZ035>037-310700-
DICKINSON-GEARY-MORRIS-
126 AM CDT FRI MAY 31 2013

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR NORTHWESTERN MORRIS...SOUTHERN
DICKINSON AND SOUTH CENTRAL GEARY COUNTIES...

THROUGH 200 AM CDT...A THUNDERSTORM WILL MOVE NORTHEAST AT 50 MPH
ACROSS PORTIONS OF NORTHWESTERN MORRIS...SOUTHERN DICKINSON AND SOUTH
CENTRAL GEARY COUNTIES. NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR
INDICATED THIS STORM IS CAPABLE OF PRODUCING PENNY SIZE HAIL AND
WINDS UP TO 40 MPH. SOME LOCATIONS THAT COULD BE AFFECTED INCLUDE
WOODBINE...WHITE CITY AND GRANDVIEW PLAZA.

&&

LAT...LON 3905 9674 3883 9661 3860 9726 3861 9738
      3878 9738
TIME...MOT...LOC 0626Z 242DEG 43KT 3880 9708

$$ HENNECKE

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TOPEKA KS
150 AM CDT FRI MAY 31 2013

KSZ022-036-038-310715-
GEARY-RILEY-WABAUNSEE-
150 AM CDT FRI MAY 31 2013

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR EXTREME SOUTHEASTERN RILEY...
SOUTHEASTERN GEARY AND NORTHWESTERN WABAUNSEE COUNTIES...

THROUGH 215 AM CDT...A THUNDERSTORM WILL MOVE NORTHEAST AT 45 MPH
ACROSS PORTIONS OF EXTREME SOUTHEASTERN RILEY...SOUTHEASTERN GEARY
AND NORTHWESTERN WABAUNSEE COUNTIES. NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER
RADAR INDICATED THIS STORM IS CAPABLE OF PRODUCING NICKEL SIZE HAIL
AND WINDS UP TO 40 MPH. SOME LOCATIONS THAT COULD BE AFFECTED INCLUDE
VOLLAND...ALMA...MCFARLAND AND PAXICO. MOTORISTS ALONG INTERSTATE 70
BETWEEN MILE MARKERS 313 AND 337 COULD ALSO BE AFFECTED.

&&

LAT...LON 3904 9610 3887 9658 3887 9664 3901 9672
      3920 9621
TIME...MOT...LOC 0651Z 242DEG 39KT 3898 9653

$$ HENNECKE

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TOPEKA KS
204 AM CDT FRI MAY 31 2013

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0156 AM     HAIL             8 S JUNCTION CITY       38.91N 96.83W
05/31/2013  E1.25 INCH       GEARY              KS   TRAINED SPOTTER

&&

BARJENBRUCH