Severe Thunderstorm Warning 54, NWS Topeka, KS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TOPEKA KS
703 PM CDT SUN MAY 19 2013

.SHORT TERM...(TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 419 PM CDT SUN MAY 19 2013

STRONG TO SEVERE CONVECTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE ACROSS THE CWA
THIS EVENING. UPPER JET IS NOSING INTO SOUTH CENTRAL KANSAS WITH
MUCH OF THE CWA UNDER THE FAVORABLE LEFT EXIT REGION ENHANCING LIFT
OVER NORTH CENTRAL AND NORTHEAST KANSAS. STEEP MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES
OF 8 TO 9 DEGREES CELSIUS HAVE OVERSPREAD NORTHEAST KANSAS AS THE
UPPER TROUGH PIVOTS NORTHEAST THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. CAPE
VALUES HAVE INCREASED TO 2000 TO 4000 J/KG AND BULK SHEAR OF 40 TO
50 KTS. POTENTIAL FOR ISOLATED TORNADOES IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE
INTO THE MID EVENING HOURS. 0-1 KM STORM RELATIVE HELICITY 100 TO
150 M2/S2 IS FORECAST FROM SOUTH CENTRAL KANSAS ACROSS EAST CENTRAL
KANSAS THIS EVENING. A COLD FRONT WILL ALSO MOVE THROUGH MUCH OF THE
CWA TONIGHT BEFORE STALLING SOUTHEAST OF THE TURNPIKE TOWARD
MORNING. LOWS TONIGHT WILL RANGE FROM THE MID 50S NORTH CENTRAL TO
THE MID 60S EAST CENTRAL.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 419 PM CDT SUN MAY 19 2013

UPPER LOW WILL CUTOFF OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS MONDAY AND MOVE
LITTLE THROUGH TUESDAY. WITH THE COLD AIR ALOFT THERE WILL BE
STEEPER LAPSE RATES AND A CONTINUED POTENTIAL FOR SOME CONVECTION
GRAZING THE NORTHERN CWA UNTIL THE UPPER LOW SPINS EASTWARD BY
WEDNESDAY. AT THE SAME TIME...THE BOUNDARY THAT GETS PUSHED
SOUTHWARD INTO SOUTHERN KS WILL LINGER WITH CONTINUED CHANCES FOR
THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE SOUTHERN AND ESPECIALLY THE FAR SOUTHEAST
CWA UNTIL THE EASTWARD MOVEMENT OF THE UPPER TROUGH PUSHES THE
BOUNDARY AND DRIER AIR SOUTH OF THE CWA. THIS WILL TAKE PLACE
TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY. HIGHS MONDAY WILL BE IN THE
80S...THEN COOLING INTO GENERALLY THE MIDDLE 70S FOR TUESDAY AND
WEDNESDAY. AS THE UPPER TROUGH CONTINUES TO SHIFT EASTWARD THROUGH
THE END OF THE WEEK...WARM AIR ADVECTION WILL SPREAD NORTHEASTWARD
ACROSS THE AREA AS UPPER RIDGING ALOFT DEVELOPS ACROSS THE CENTRAL
PLAINS. THIS WILL WARRANT A REINTRODUCTION OF CHANCES FOR
THUNDERSTORMS THURSDAY INTO THE WEEKEND.  AS THIS OCCURS...HIGHS
SHOULD BEGIN TO EDGE BACK INTO THE LOW TO MID 80S FOR THE
WEEKEND.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z MONDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 703 PM CDT SUN MAY 19 2013

MAIN LINE OF STORMS HAS MOVED OFF TO THE NORTHEAST OF THE TOP AND
FOE TERMINALS. OTHER SCATTERED STORMS MAY MOVE INTO THE TERMINAL
AREA BETWEEN 01Z AND 03Z. VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED OUTSIDE OF
CONVECTION AND AFTER 05Z.

&&

.TOP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

SHORT TERM...53
LONG TERM...63
AVIATION...53

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TOPEKA KS
715 PM CDT SUN MAY 19 2013

KSZ008>012-020>024-026-034>040-054>056-058-059-210015-
REPUBLIC-WASHINGTON-MARSHALL-NEMAHA-BROWN-CLOUD-CLAY-RILEY-
POTTAWATOMIE-JACKSON-JEFFERSON-OTTAWA-DICKINSON-GEARY-MORRIS-
WABAUNSEE-SHAWNEE-DOUGLAS-LYON-OSAGE-FRANKLIN-COFFEY-ANDERSON-
715 PM CDT SUN MAY 19 2013

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR EAST CENTRAL...NORTH
CENTRAL AND NORTHEAST KANSAS.

.DAY ONE...TONIGHT.

A LINE OF STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WILL EXIT THE AREA TO THE
EAST OF HIGHWAY 75 BY 730 PM. OTHER SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS
FURTHER TO THE WEST IN CENTRAL AND NORTH CENTRAL KANSAS MAY STILL
MOVE EAST THROUGH THE EVENING AND PRODUCE ADDITIONAL SEVERE HAIL
AND WIND GUSTS BEFORE WEAKENING. ANY ADDITIONAL HAIL IS EXPECTED
TO BE QUARTER SIZE OR SMALLER...BUT MAY STILL CONTAIN DAMAGING
WIND GUSTS OVER 60 MPH. AN ISOLATED TORNADO CANNOT BE RULED OUT.

A TORNADO WATCH STILL REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE ENTIRE AREA UNTIL
10 PM CDT.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY.

THERE IS ANOTHER CHANCE FOR SEVERE WEATHER ON MONDAY
AFTERNOON AND EVENING...WITH HIGHER CHANCES FOR SEVERE WEATHER
ALONG AND SOUTHEAST OF THE KANSAS TURNPIKE. LARGE HAIL AND
ISOLATED TORNADOES ARE THE PRIMARY THREAT FROM THESE STORMS.

A CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS RETURNS THURSDAY...WITH INTERMITTENT
CHANCES FOR STORMS INTO THE WEEKEND.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS STILL POSSIBLE FOR A FEW MORE HOURS THIS
EVENING BEFORE STORMS WEAKEN AND MOVE EAST.

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TOPEKA KS
702 PM CDT SUN MAY 19 2013

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0655 PM     TSTM WND GST     S WHITING               39.58N 95.61W
05/19/2013  E60.00 MPH       JACKSON            KS   TRAINED SPOTTER

&&

KSANDERS

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TOPEKA KS
709 PM CDT SUN MAY 19 2013

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0655 PM     TSTM WND DMG     1 W MCLOUTH             39.20N 95.23W
05/19/2013                   JEFFERSON          KS   LAW ENFORCEMENT

            TREES BLOWN DOWN ON K-16 HIGHWAY ABOUT 1.5 MILES WEST OF
            MCLOUTH.

0655 PM     TSTM WND DMG     OSKALOOSA               39.22N 95.31W
05/19/2013                   JEFFERSON          KS   LAW ENFORCEMENT

            DAMAGE TO METAL ROOFS AT A LUMBER YARD ON HIGHWAY 59.

&&

JW

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TOPEKA KS
719 PM CDT SUN MAY 19 2013

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0655 PM     TSTM WND DMG     6 ESE OSKALOOSA         39.20N 95.21W
05/19/2013                   JEFFERSON          KS   TRAINED SPOTTER

            TREE CAME DOWN ON VACANT HOUSE

&&

KSANDERS

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TOPEKA KS
732 PM CDT SUN MAY 19 2013

KSZ035-037-200100-
DICKINSON-MORRIS-
732 PM CDT SUN MAY 19 2013

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR MORRIS AND SOUTHEASTERN DICKINSON
COUNTIES...

THROUGH 800 PM CDT...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL MOVE NORTHEAST AT 50
MPH ACROSS PORTIONS OF MORRIS AND SOUTHEASTERN DICKINSON COUNTIES.
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED THIS STORM IS
CAPABLE OF PRODUCING PENNY SIZE HAIL AND STRONG WINDS AROUND 50 MPH.
SOME LOCATIONS THAT COULD BE AFFECTED INCLUDE LATIMER...WILSEY...
WHITE CITY...PARKERVILLE AND DWIGHT.

A TORNADO WATCH IS ALSO IN EFFECT. STAY ALERT TO THE WEATHER IN CASE
A WARNING IS ISSUED.

&&

LAT...LON 3852 9694 3861 9694 3861 9705 3887 9681
      3887 9651 3883 9650 3882 9639 3852 9683
TIME...MOT...LOC 0031Z 226DEG 44KT 3861 9689

 PHILLIPS

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TOPEKA KS
739 PM CDT SUN MAY 19 2013

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0555 PM     TSTM WND DMG     ESE MELVERN             38.51N 95.64W
05/19/2013                   OSAGE              KS   TRAINED SPOTTER

            A 4 FOOT DIAMETER TREE BLOWN OVER ONTO HOUSE AT THEIR
            LOCATION.

&&

SW

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TOPEKA KS
806 PM CDT SUN MAY 19 2013

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0756 PM     TSTM WND GST     3 ESE JAMESTOWN         39.59N 97.81W
05/19/2013  E60.00 MPH       CLOUD              KS   TRAINED SPOTTER

            ALSO DIME SIZED HAIL.

&&

SW