Severe Thunderstorm Warning 140, NWS Topeka, KS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TOPEKA KS
1135 PM CDT Sun Aug 11 2013

.SHORT TERM...(This Evening through Monday)
Issued at 257 PM CDT SUN AUG 11 2013

Modest southwest flow remains aloft, with water vapor imagery
suggesting an upper wave moving through central Colorado at midday.
Precipitable water values were nearly 1.5 times normal in the
southern High Plains this morning with soundings from KDDC and KAMA
rather saturated in the mid levels. Weak cold front via Great Lakes
northwest flow had pushed through much of Nebraska by 20Z. Recent
radar showing convection firing along it and near a weak surface low
in east central Colorado where dewpoints are rather high for this
area.

Hi-res models are in strikingly good agreement with convection
congealing into and MCS in northwest Kansas late this afternoon,
reaching central Kansas around midnight and continuing southeast
into the morning. Increasing precipitable water values ahead of the
shortwave with modest moisture transport and mid level isentropic
lift would suggest the most robust activity to remain in central
portions of the state, arcing southeast with time as the again
modest low level jet veers. NAM and GFS runs are a few to several
hours slower with the convection and do seem a bit too slow, though
experience with hi-res solutions leans to a too-fast bias. Have
highest chances in the overnight to early morning hours to account
for some uncertainty. Training of the robust convection again seems
to be a minor concern, with brief bouts of intense rainfall rates the
more likely scenario. Flash flood guidance continues to rise from a
few dry days, but suspect persistent activity could lead to troubles
in southwest locations and this will need to be monitored. Front
will continue to sag south into the area overnight into Monday but
convergence remains weak and how the overnight plays out will have a
large impact on destabilization and lingering mesoscale boundaries.
Will generally go with decreasing chances through the day but
confidence in how it plays out is not high. Temperature forecasts
for Monday are again not certain depending on precip trends but
850MB temps remain similar to today so kept low to mid 80s going
given some insolation.

.LONG TERM...(Monday Night through Sunday)
Issued at 257 PM CDT SUN AUG 11 2013

Models show the overall pattern amplifying with the long wave
trough over the eastern half of the country deepening and the
ridge across the southwest building along the Rockies. The
amplifying trough and northwest flow aloft is expected to allow a
decent surface ridge to build south into the forecast area. For
Monday night into Tuesday...models show enough deep moisture
across southern portions of the forecast area with northwest flow
and potential shortwave energy aloft that there could be
scattered showers and thunderstorms. The best chances for precip
should progressively move south as the surface ridge build into
the area and dryer air moves in from the north. Have the forecast
dry for Tuesday night through Sunday. By mid week surface
dewpoints are low enough (in the 50s) that there is some
inhibition to surface based convection. So with no obvious
shortwave moving through the northwest flow, think chances for
precip are less than 20 percent. There is some uncertainty as
models hint at some precip on the back or west side of the surface
ridge by the end of the week which could impact parts of central
KS if it is realized. If models show some consistency with the
shortwave details within the northwest flow, some POPs may need
to be added to some of the western counties of the forecast area
Thursday night or Friday.

Below normal temps appear likely through the period with the
coolest temps expected to be Wednesday and Thursday as the surface
ridge has its greatest impact on the forecast area. Highs are
forecast to be in the upper 70s and around 80 with lows in the
50s. Eventually the surface ridge will give way to a lee trough by
the weekend, so have temps trending warmer into the mid 80s through
the weekend.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFs through 06Z Monday Night)
Issued at 1131 PM CDT SUN AUG 11 2013

Short-term models continue to forecast a thunderstorm complex
currently in south central Nebraska to move southeast into the area.
The exact timing of the arrival is a little uncertain although we
will continue to monitor the trends and update as needed. The
consensus for arrival is trending later than previous thinking which
brings storms into the taf sites around 09-10Z. The precip should
move out of the area around 12-13Z although there may be some
lingering showers therefore the end time may need adjustment.

&&

.TOP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

SHORT TERM...65
LONG TERM...Wolters
AVIATION...Sanders

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SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TOPEKA KS
103 AM CDT MON AUG 12 2013

KSZ008-120630-
REPUBLIC-
103 AM CDT MON AUG 12 2013

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR NORTHERN REPUBLIC COUNTY...

THROUGH 130 AM CDT...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL MOVE EAST AT 35 MPH
ACROSS PORTIONS OF NORTHERN REPUBLIC COUNTY. NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE
DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED THIS STORM IS CAPABLE OF PRODUCING STRONG
WINDS OF 40 TO 50 MPH AND TORRENTIAL RAINFALL. SOME LOCATIONS THAT
COULD BE AFFECTED INCLUDE REPUBLIC...NARKA...MUNDEN AND CUBA.

&&

LAT...LON 4000 9737 3979 9737 3989 9794 4000 9794
      4001 9793
TIME...MOT...LOC 0602Z 281DEG 31KT 4002 9785

BARJENBRUCH

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TOPEKA KS
154 AM CDT MON AUG 12 2013

KSZ008-020-120730-
CLOUD-REPUBLIC-
154 AM CDT MON AUG 12 2013

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR SOUTHERN REPUBLIC AND NORTHERN
CLOUD COUNTIES...

THROUGH 230 AM CDT...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL MOVE EAST AT 30 MPH
ACROSS PORTIONS OF SOUTHERN REPUBLIC AND NORTHERN CLOUD COUNTIES.
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED THIS STORM IS
CAPABLE OF PRODUCING PEA SIZE HAIL...STRONG WINDS OF 40 TO 50 MPH AND
HEAVY RAIN. SOME LOCATIONS THAT COULD BE AFFECTED INCLUDE NORWAY...
BELLEVILLE...CUBA AND AGENDA.

&&

LAT...LON 3975 9794 3989 9754 3988 9737 3961 9737
      3960 9794
TIME...MOT...LOC 0654Z 263DEG 25KT 3969 9775

BARJENBRUCH

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TOPEKA KS
236 AM CDT MON AUG 12 2013

KSZ020-120800-
CLOUD-
236 AM CDT MON AUG 12 2013

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR CLOUD COUNTY...

THROUGH 300 AM CDT...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL MOVE EAST AT 40 MPH
ACROSS PORTIONS OF CLOUD COUNTY. NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER
RADAR INDICATED THIS STORM IS CAPABLE OF PRODUCING PEA SIZE HAIL...
STRONG WINDS OF 40 TO 50 MPH AND TORRENTIAL RAINFALL. SOME LOCATIONS
THAT COULD BE AFFECTED INCLUDE AURORA...GLASCO...MILTONVALE...AND
CONCORDIA.

&&

LAT...LON 3965 9791 3955 9737 3931 9737 3931 9793
      3965 9794
TIME...MOT...LOC 0736Z 286DEG 36KT 3941 9771

BARJENBRUCH

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