Severe Thunderstorm Warning 116, NWS Topeka, KS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TOPEKA KS
608 PM CDT THU JUN 27 2013

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING) ISSUED AT 1232 PM CDT THU JUN 27
2013

AT 18Z...AN OUTFLOW BOUNDARY EXTENDED FROM NEAR OTTAWA TO JUNCTION
CITY TO WASHINGTON...AND HAD ALREADY MIXED OUT A BIT NEAR THE
NEBRASKA BORDER AS EVIDENCED BY BEATRICE WINDS TURNING OUT OF THE
SSE. THE COLD SIDE OF THE OUTFLOW HAD STABILIZED A BIT AT THE
SURFACE BUT ELEVATED PARCELS REMAINED VERY UNSTABLE. MEANWHILE...
THE WARM SIDE OF THE OUTFLOW WAS EXTREMELY UNSTABLE WITH DEWPOINTS
IN THE MID 70S AND TEMPERATURES CLIMBING WELL INTO THE 90S. DEEP
LAYER SHEAR IS SUFFICIENT FOR SUPERCELL STRUCTURES PARTICULARLY
WHEN COMBINED WITH THE EXTREME INSTABILITY IN PLACE. A SOMEWHAT
ORGANIZED AREA OF CONVECTION HAS BEEN STEADILY MOVING SSE ACROSS
SOUTHEAST NEBRASKA AND HAS SHOWN SIGNS OF INCREASING ORGANIZATION
AND DEVELOPMENT ON THE WESTERN FLANK WHERE THE INSTABILITY FEED IS
MORE SUBSTANTIAL.

FEEL THAT THE MOST LIKELY SCENARIO FOR THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING
IS FOR THE ACTIVITY IN SOUTHERN NEBRASKA TO FURTHER ORGANIZE...
LIKELY DEVELOPING A FORWARD PROPAGATING COLD POOL WHILE ALSO
MAINTAINING EMBEDDED SUPERCELL STRUCTURES. THIS SEEMS TO BE A
RATHER FAVORABLE SETUP FOR A DAMAGING WIND EVENT...ESPECIALLY
ANYWHERE ON THE WARM SIDE OF THE OUTFLOW BOUNDARY BUT PERHAPS
EXTENDING INTO THE COOL SIDE OF THE OUTFLOW BY 100 MILES OR SO AS
WELL. THE MAGNITUDE OF INSTABILITY ALONG WITH THE SHEAR PROFILE
SUGGEST THE POTENTIAL FOR VERY LARGE HAIL...PERHAPS ACCOMPANIED BY
VERY STRONG WINDS AT TIMES. TORNADO POTENTIAL IS NON-ZERO...BUT
WOULD SEEM TO BE LIMITED TO AREAS WHERE THE STORMS INTERSECT THE
REMNANT OUTFLOW BOUNDARY AND TO ANY ORGANIZED CELLS ON THE WEST
END OF ANY BOW ECHO. WOULD ALSO NEED TO KEEP AN EYE ON ANY BOOKEND
VORTEX THAT COULD DEVELOP IN A WELL ORGANIZED BOW ECHO. THE BOTTOM
LINE IS THAT AN ORGANIZED SEVERE WEATHER THREAT IS EXPECTED THIS
AFTERNOON WITH THE PRIMARY THREATS BEING A COMBINATION OF WINDS UP
TO 80 MPH AND HAIL UP TO TENNIS BALL SIZE. DO EXPECT STORMS TO
COME TO AN END BY LATE EVENING WITH MORE PLEASANT CONDITIONS
EVENTUALLY SETTLING INTO THE AREA BEHIND AN INCOMING COLD FRONT.

BARJENBRUCH

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY THROUGH THURSDAY) ISSUED AT 246 PM CDT THU
JUN 27 2013

THE EXTENDED PERIOD OF THE FORECAST WILL BE MARKED BY A FAIRLY QUIET
WEATHER PATTERN AND COOLER THAN NORMAL TEMPERATURES. ONCE TODAY'S
STORM SYSTEM TRACKS SOUTHEAST OF THE AREA OVERNIGHT...THE MID LEVEL
RIDGE OVER THE WESTERN U.S. WILL CONTINUE TO AMPLIFY AS THE MID
LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE EASTERN U.S. DIGS FURTHER SOUTH ALONG THE
ATLANTIC COASTLINE. THIS PATTERN WILL REMAIN ANCHORED OVER THE CONUS
THROUGH THE WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK...KEEPING THE CENTRAL
PLAINS IN NORTHWESTERLY FLOW. THIS NORTHWESTERLY FLOW WILL RESULT IN
COOLER TEMPERATURES IN THE UPCOMING DAYS...WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER
80S/LOWER 90S ON FRIDAY AND DROPPING SLIGHTLY BELOW THE SEASONAL
NORMALS THIS WEEKEND WITH HIGHS GENERALLY IN THE LOWER TO MIDDLE
80S. WITH SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN BEHIND THE EXITING
SYSTEM...EXPECT DRY CONDITIONS FRIDAY...THROUGH THE WEEKEND AND INTO
EARLY NEXT WEEK. BY MID WEEK...THE MID LEVEL TROUGH LOOKS TO
RETROGRADE SOMEWHAT FURTHER WEST INTO THE NORTHERN AND CENTRAL
PLAINS AS A WAVE OVER CANADA MERGES INTO THE TROUGH. THE UPPER LEVEL
FLOW BECOMES A BIT MESSY BY MID TO LATE WEEK WITH THIS PATTERN
CHANGE. AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE LOOKS TO MOVE INTO WESTERN KANSAS
WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY WITH AN ASSOCIATE BOUNDARY POTENTIALLY
EXTENDING EASTWARD TOWARD THE FORECAST AREA. BETTER CHANCES FOR
PRECIPITATION ENTER BACK INTO THE FORECAST TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH
THURSDAY WITH THIS APPROACHING SYSTEM. HOWEVER...DUE TO THE
UNCERTAINTY IN THE EXACT TRACKING OF THIS SYSTEM...HAVE ONLY
INCLUDED SLIGHT CHANCE POPS AT THIS TIME. AS WINDS SHIFT MORE TO THE
SOUTH FROM THIS NEARBY SURFACE LOW...AFTERNOON HIGHS SHOULD START
WARMING A BIT CLOSER TO THE SEASONAL NORMALS BY THURSDAY WITH HIGHS
IN THE MIDDLE 80S.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z FRIDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 607 PM CDT THU JUN 27 2013

BASED ON LATEST RADAR TRENDS...THINK THE ELEVATED SCATTERED
CONVECTION SHOULD PUSH SOUTH OF TOP AND FOE BY 02Z. AFTER
THAT...THE BOUNDARY LAYER SHOULD CONTINUE TO STABILIZE WITH NO
OBVIOUS MID LEVEL WAVE UPSTREAM. SO THE FORECAST ANTICIPATES VFR
CONDITIONS WITH ONLY SOME HIGH CLOUD AS SURFACE RIDGING BUILDS
INTO THE AREA THROUGH THE DAY FRIDAY.

&&

.TOP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR KSZ034-035-037-054.

&&

SHORT TERM...BARJENBRUCH
LONG TERM...HENNECKE
AVIATION...WOLTERS

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TOPEKA KS
433 PM CDT THU JUN 27 2013

KSZ008>012-020>024-026-034>040-054>056-058-059-282145-
REPUBLIC-WASHINGTON-MARSHALL-NEMAHA-BROWN-CLOUD-CLAY-RILEY-
POTTAWATOMIE-JACKSON-JEFFERSON-OTTAWA-DICKINSON-GEARY-MORRIS-
WABAUNSEE-SHAWNEE-DOUGLAS-LYON-OSAGE-FRANKLIN-COFFEY-ANDERSON-
433 PM CDT THU JUN 27 2013

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR EAST CENTRAL...NORTH
CENTRAL AND NORTHEAST KANSAS.

.DAY ONE...TONIGHT.

STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ARE LIKELY NEAR AND SOUTH OF A
MINNEAPOLIS TO ABILENE TO EMPORIA LINE THROUGH THIS EVENING. HAIL
TO TENNIS BALL SIZE OR LARGER AND DAMAGING WINDS UP TO 80 MPH ARE
EXPECTED WITH THE STRONGEST STORMS LATE TODAY. THERE IS ALSO A
SMALL POTENTIAL FOR A TORNADO.

TO THE NORTH OF THE MINNEAPOLIS TO ABILENE TO EMPORIA LINE...STRONG
TO SEVERE STORMS REMAIN POSSIBLE...BUT THE GREATEST THREATS APPEAR
TO BE HAIL UP TO THE SIZE OF QUARTERS AND WINDS UP TO 60 MPH.

A HEAT INDEX OF 104 TO 109 DEGREES IS EXPECTED ACROSS PARTS OF
NORTH CENTRAL AND EAST CENTRAL KANSAS TODAY.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY.

THERE IS A SLIGHT CHANCE OF STORMS SUNDAY IN EXTREME EASTERN
KANSAS...AND FOR THE ENTIRE AREA TUESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION WILL LIKELY BE NEEDED NEAR AND SOUTH OF A
MINNEAPOLIS TO ABILENE TO EMPORIA LINE.

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TOPEKA KS
758 PM CDT THU JUN 27 2013

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0745 PM     HAIL             3 E LEONARDVILLE        39.36N 96.80W
06/27/2013  E1.50 INCH       RILEY              KS   PUBLIC

&&

PHILLIPS

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